Obi, when you did the RNG for the discrider/marikir, did you consider marikir as having 2 loops, so the odds would be 2/3 vs 1/2?
Yeah, I did.
The more interesting question is, did you, on the second pass for a lot of those potatoes, do another RNG to determine whether the potatoes would go through the second warp back to Marikir?
Cause I'm a bit amazed only two stuck to him under those conditions.
Probably not. I think I used the initial RNG for all subsequent jumps and stopped once it didn't need it.
Um, yes, but the two potatoes that Marikir ended with in game were I think the two the mafia landed on him to begin with!
So you're looking at an additional 1/3 of the potatoes that premium soaked up landing on Marikir.
The busdrivers were (discrider, marikir)x2 and (vert, discrider). If we take a marikir branch it stays; otherwise it ends up back on premium who already threw it and had his bus burned. I think one of ours ended up on each
What I think happened from the narration, is although Obifett used the correct probabilities on the first pass, he then assumed that they would take the other path on the second loop around, instead of properly recalculating the link probability and handing additional potatoes to Marikir.
At least, that was the feeling I got from that day.
Of course no-one could tell because of Sepah's skilled masking of mafia linkages :P
What I think happened from the narration, is although Obifett used the correct probabilities on the first pass, he then assumed that they would take the other path on the second loop around, instead of properly recalculating the link probability and handing additional potatoes to Marikir.
At least, that was the feeling I got from that day.
Of course no-one could tell because of Sepah's skilled masking of mafia linkages :P
The only potato that followed a double-branching busdriver was zh's though, the rest were deterministic after the first branch
Look at the mafias forums day 3 thread, page 2 about half way down
Probably not, but it would've have looked slightly strange in narration and prevented us from all going wtf Sepah when he announced to us the night of his death.
I mean seriously, he came to the network and claimed all the dodgiest busdrivers. And then died village.
BTW - Obi, I really, really liked the secondary win condition for the Seer role. It made a lot of sense and also allowed me to sort of relax a little when the vote tide turned against me initially. It basically let me just shrug and put it all on the table, which I'm glad to see, helped the village apparently, though not in the way I had wanted to.
Regardless, I enjoyed the setting and the set up. A Hot Potato tournament was perfect, in my humble opinion, to use for a game centered on busdriving. Very creative.
The mafia was borderline inactive most of the game and, mechanics aside, we threw really, really hard. But everything was getting done last minute if at all every day, so when I was asked to do something stupid, I pointed out that it was stupid, then threw up my hands and did it anyway.
Great game. I'm only sorry that I did die to schuss not placing it's focus. It's a lame way to die. But it did good for the village, eliminating an inactive villager and a totally clueless one (me)...
Learned something for next time:
Hitsquads are not the mafia; probably don't jump on them day 2.
As for Jaenther, we're sort of lucky Sir Fab's busdriver managed to catch your focus.
Frankly, day 4 was when I knew for sure that you were mafia, the other days you were just suspiciously persistent in voting for me and other random villagers I liked.
Sorry. I would have seriously considered working with you, except that I thought Greenbarons revealing himself to be "the last mafia" when narrations don't tell us we've killed all the mafia meant he was providing cover for someone else.
No hard feelings here. The only person I could fully trust this game was @Zombie Hero and I got super lucky that he didnt try to backstab or manipulate me. If @Greenbarons hadnt revealed himself he might ahve been able to convince me to vote for you instead.
Yeah, not sure the whole bus drive phalla is a great idea. I mean hot potato as it's own game would work great, but the mafia really should have control of their kill in these sort of things or have a wincon that offsets the fact that they can't really control their kill well enough.
In hindsight, I probably should have jumped on the Saber wagon. I was kind of expecting that to either run away or Saber getting a chance to tie it and take himself with UGM.
Either way, I really wish I was more on the ball about getting out of queue before the game started, but I got sidetracked with other stuff.
Posts
Yeah. I pretty much wasn't really participating up until INANTP died. Didn't say a lot, made really dumb focus decisions.
Probably not. I think I used the initial RNG for all subsequent jumps and stopped once it didn't need it.
It works out that premium was the target 2/3 of the time
So you're looking at an additional 1/3 of the potatoes that premium soaked up landing on Marikir.
The busdrivers were (discrider, marikir)x2 and (vert, discrider). If we take a marikir branch it stays; otherwise it ends up back on premium who already threw it and had his bus burned. I think one of ours ended up on each
At least, that was the feeling I got from that day.
Of course no-one could tell because of Sepah's skilled masking of mafia linkages :P
The only potato that followed a double-branching busdriver was zh's though, the rest were deterministic after the first branch
Look at the mafias forums day 3 thread, page 2 about half way down
These potatoes were Mikey's, ZH's and SOE's.
The sequence would have gone:
HiSq -> Me :: Vert -> Premium :: MrT -> Premium -> Me :: Marikir -> Premium
or
HiSq -> Me :: Marikir -> Premium :: MrT -> Premium -> Me :: Marikir
or
HiSq -> Me :: Marikir -> Premium :: MrT -> Premium -> Me :: Vert -> Premium
And those last 2 cases were accidentally amalgamated into the last case in narration.
I mean seriously, he came to the network and claimed all the dodgiest busdrivers. And then died village.
Regardless, I enjoyed the setting and the set up. A Hot Potato tournament was perfect, in my humble opinion, to use for a game centered on busdriving. Very creative.
Again, thanks for doing this.
edit: forgot the most important bit, thanks for the game, Obifett, it was as crazy as I could've hoped!
Learned something for next time:
Hitsquads are not the mafia; probably don't jump on them day 2.
As for Jaenther, we're sort of lucky Sir Fab's busdriver managed to catch your focus.
Frankly, day 4 was when I knew for sure that you were mafia, the other days you were just suspiciously persistent in voting for me and other random villagers I liked.
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
Discrider I should have trusted you and I'm sorry I didn't. We could have been a warper/vig team.
Island Name: Felinefine
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
Also, SaberOverEasy, you will rue the day!
No hard feelings here. The only person I could fully trust this game was @Zombie Hero and I got super lucky that he didnt try to backstab or manipulate me. If @Greenbarons hadnt revealed himself he might ahve been able to convince me to vote for you instead.
In hindsight, I probably should have jumped on the Saber wagon. I was kind of expecting that to either run away or Saber getting a chance to tie it and take himself with UGM.
Either way, I really wish I was more on the ball about getting out of queue before the game started, but I got sidetracked with other stuff.
@ObiFett thanks for running.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.