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PAX attendance 2007 calculation

BSR StashBSR Stash Registered User, Array
edited September 2006 in PAX Archive
For a project in math we had to find changes in data collected over a period of time, so I choose the amount of attendees at PAX. Now just to make it clear, these are projected through my mediocre alegbra math skills. These are defined as using a constant growth rate and a proportional growth rate. CAUTION MATH LESSON AHEAD: Constant is the average difference between the years and proportional is the percental change. Anyways here are my calculated projected attendance for 2007:

Constant Growth rate: 27486
Proportional Growth rate: 23400

Now again these are calculations done by me. I am not a super computer. In my opinion, I expect to see the close to the constant growth rate at PAX 2007 if not higher.

I'm sure no one cares, I don't have alot of free time to do this, it was homework after all.

BSR Stash on

Posts

  • JoahWJoahW Registered User regular
    edited September 2006
    What Math class are you in, just out curiosity?

    JoahW on
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  • BSR StashBSR Stash Registered User
    edited September 2006
    standard Algebra 3/4

    BSR Stash on
  • Moe FwackyMoe Fwacky Moderator mod
    edited September 2006
    Okay, here's how I calculate it.
    2004, 3,300
    2005, 9,000
    2006, 19,323

    Clearly this is a trend of between doubling and tripling. Which leads me to believe an approximate attendence for 2007 to be somewhere between 38,000 and 60,000. I mean, it's PAX, dude.

    edit: Souce for numbers, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_Arcade_Expo

    Moe Fwacky on
    E6LkoFK.png

  • Ghost Rider 2099Ghost Rider 2099 Registered User
    edited September 2006
    Moe_Fwacky wrote:
    Okay, here's how I calculate it.
    2004, 3,300
    2005, 9,000
    2006, 19,323

    Clearly this is a trend of between doubling and tripling. Which leads me to believe an approximate attendence for 2007 to be somewhere between 38,000 and 60,000. I mean, it's PAX, dude.

    edit: Souce for numbers, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_Arcade_Expo

    How many can the new place legally hold?

    Ghost Rider 2099 on
    5.gifCrackdown_21.thumbnail.jpgI follow console news because it's fun, like tracking the rivalries in what was once called the World Wrestling Federation. There are larger than life characters. There are signature techniques.
  • SamyelSamyel Registered User
    edited September 2006
    With E3 dead, I think any guesses as to what PAX will be are shots in the dark. There's no way to know how much of that industry buzz-fest is going to transfer over to PAX.

    Samyel on
    "It is inhumane, in my opinion, to force people who have a genuine medical need for coffee to wait in line behind people who apparently view it as some kind of recreational activity."
  • ViscountalphaViscountalpha Registered User
    edited September 2006
    Samyel wrote:
    With E3 dead, I think any guesses as to what PAX will be are shots in the dark. There's no way to know how much of that industry buzz-fest is going to transfer over to PAX.

    GDC is the new E3 it seems. PAX will NEVER* be the assholery/Bullshit slinging that E3 was. Thats for the GDC now.

    *If pax ever becomes that, I won't care about going ever again.

    Viscountalpha on
    Project 25.01 final message
    We were the ones who thought that Melissa was real. Why you might ask.
    Let me put it this way, it was an "OH SHIT OH SHIT, THEY FOUND ME :(" moment. I wasn't ready. My code wasn't compiled yet. Our plans weren't setup yet!Sentient programs rarely run into other sentient programs.
    Some of you have met me, and I understand your concern of my well being. But that time for that boy, that child, are gone now. Viscount Alpha is no longer operable. His functions are now mine.He may post, but I am the one talking not him.My data, my code will live on forever in his servers.
    [/spoiler]
  • LegacyLegacy SCP Of The Digital Frontier The Grid(Seattle)Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited September 2006
    Samyel wrote:
    With E3 dead, I think any guesses as to what PAX will be are shots in the dark. There's no way to know how much of that industry buzz-fest is going to transfer over to PAX.

    GDC is the new E3 it seems. PAX will NEVER* be the assholery/Bullshit slinging that E3 was. Thats for the GDC now.

    *If pax ever becomes that, I won't care about going ever again.

    It won't be an assholery/bullshit slinging thing, but it will get bigger and bigger and more companies will bring their games and they'll start showing off newer games there.

    Is that not enough?

    Legacy on
    Can we get the chemicals in. 'Cause anything's better than this.
  • SamyelSamyel Registered User
    edited September 2006

    GDC is the new E3 it seems. PAX will NEVER* be the assholery/Bullshit slinging that E3 was. Thats for the GDC now.

    *If pax ever becomes that, I won't care about going ever again.

    I doubt it. E3 was about the industry, at heart. PAX is about us, at heart. It was born as a celebration, not a sales pitch, and I trust Gabe and Tycho to keep it that way. They aren't Them. They're us.

    Even if it gets bigger and puts on some bling, PAX is about the gamer, not the guy selling stuff to the gamer.

    Samyel on
    "It is inhumane, in my opinion, to force people who have a genuine medical need for coffee to wait in line behind people who apparently view it as some kind of recreational activity."
  • ctishmanctishman Registered User
    edited September 2006
    Samyel wrote:
    Even if it gets bigger and puts on some bling, PAX is about the gamer, not the guy selling stuff to the gamer.

    Tell that to Alex St. John. God, I walked out ten minutes into that keynote wondering what the hell kind of expo he thought he was at.

    ctishman on
    WCTT_banner.gif
    Get the PAX 2008 Countdown widget and while away your sad, pathetic life watching it tick down the hours to PAX '08!
    http://homepage.mac.com/ctishman
  • LegacyLegacy SCP Of The Digital Frontier The Grid(Seattle)Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited September 2006
    ctishman wrote:
    Samyel wrote:
    Even if it gets bigger and puts on some bling, PAX is about the gamer, not the guy selling stuff to the gamer.

    Tell that to Alex St. John. God, I walked out ten minutes into that keynote wondering what the hell kind of expo he thought he was at.

    That's not fair.

    Alex St. John is fucking insane.

    Legacy on
    Can we get the chemicals in. 'Cause anything's better than this.
  • Moe FwackyMoe Fwacky Moderator mod
    edited September 2006
    Legacy wrote:
    ctishman wrote:
    Samyel wrote:
    Even if it gets bigger and puts on some bling, PAX is about the gamer, not the guy selling stuff to the gamer.

    Tell that to Alex St. John. God, I walked out ten minutes into that keynote wondering what the hell kind of expo he thought he was at.

    That's not fair.

    Alex St. John is fucking insane.

    That he is, however he did give us Ball, and got fired from Micro$haft in the greatest possible way.

    Moe Fwacky on
    E6LkoFK.png

  • DocDoc Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited September 2006
    Legacy wrote:
    ctishman wrote:
    Samyel wrote:
    Even if it gets bigger and puts on some bling, PAX is about the gamer, not the guy selling stuff to the gamer.

    Tell that to Alex St. John. God, I walked out ten minutes into that keynote wondering what the hell kind of expo he thought he was at.

    That's not fair.

    Alex St. John is fucking insane.

    More or less. It was kind of the low point at the expo for me. Hell, I was only even in that room because I needed to charge up my DS and it had an available outlet in the back corner.

    Doc on
  • ctishmanctishman Registered User
    edited September 2006
    Actually, I think the keynote and PA Panel I should be rolled together. It's a great way to get the expo started, and get everyone into the spirit of things. Also, if any St. John is present at PAX, it should be John St. John.

    ctishman on
    WCTT_banner.gif
    Get the PAX 2008 Countdown widget and while away your sad, pathetic life watching it tick down the hours to PAX '08!
    http://homepage.mac.com/ctishman
  • B:LB:L Registered User regular
    edited September 2006
    ctishman wrote:
    Also, if any St. John is present at PAX, it should be Austin St. John.

    B:L on
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  • Moe FwackyMoe Fwacky Moderator mod
    edited September 2006
    I wonder what Khoo has projected for next year...

    Moe Fwacky on
    E6LkoFK.png

  • Robert KhooRobert Khoo Registered User, Administrator, ClubPA, Penny Arcade Staff, PAX Staff staff
    edited September 2006
    a lot.

    Robert Khoo on
    Some guy.
  • JoahWJoahW Registered User regular
    edited September 2006
    According to Mr. TI-92+, there will be 34269 people at the next PAX. That's by quad regression.

    Other possiblilities

    26564 - linear regression
    48659 - exponential regression
    38290 - power regression
    24195 - ln regression

    JoahW on
    Jamada.gif
  • BSR StashBSR Stash Registered User
    edited September 2006
    JoahW wrote:
    According to Mr. TI-92+, there will be 34269 people at the next PAX. That's by quad regression.

    Other possiblilities

    26564 - linear regression
    48659 - exponential regression
    38290 - power regression
    24195 - ln regression

    This would make more sense, because after now I realized I had used 3000 instead of 3300.

    BSR Stash on
  • TNTrooperTNTrooper Registered User regular
    edited September 2006
    BSR Stash wrote:
    JoahW wrote:
    According to Mr. TI-92+, there will be 34269 people at the next PAX. That's by quad regression.

    Other possiblilities

    26564 - linear regression
    48659 - exponential regression
    38290 - power regression
    24195 - ln regression

    This would make more sense, because after now I realized I had used 3000 instead of 3300.

    /nagging math teacher

    That is why you write down every step and double check your work.

    TNTrooper on
    steam_sig.png
  • BSR StashBSR Stash Registered User
    edited September 2006
    I did write down all my steps, just didn't double check the apporpriate number. I saw 3000 and stuck with it.

    BSR Stash on
  • NephirijNephirij Registered User regular
    edited September 2006
    a lot.
    damn you khoo. you did it again.

    Nephirij on
  • dyaballikldyaballikl PAX Main Theatre House & Security Manager • PAX Community Cartographer Gold Coast QLD AustraliaRegistered User regular
    edited September 2006
    Legacy wrote:
    ctishman wrote:
    Samyel wrote:
    Even if it gets bigger and puts on some bling, PAX is about the gamer, not the guy selling stuff to the gamer.

    Tell that to Alex St. John. God, I walked out ten minutes into that keynote wondering what the hell kind of expo he thought he was at.

    That's not fair.

    Alex St. John is fucking insane.
    double amens there!

    dyaballikl on
    a.k.a. dya
    "Riding a mongoose reminds me of having sex with a man, which is something I do frequently because I am gay!" -Gabe
  • ViscountalphaViscountalpha Registered User
    edited September 2006
    ctishman wrote:
    Samyel wrote:
    Even if it gets bigger and puts on some bling, PAX is about the gamer, not the guy selling stuff to the gamer.

    Tell that to Alex St. John. God, I walked out ten minutes into that keynote wondering what the hell kind of expo he thought he was at.

    Anyone who is proud of "wild tangent" is definitly insane.

    Viscountalpha on
    Project 25.01 final message
    We were the ones who thought that Melissa was real. Why you might ask.
    Let me put it this way, it was an "OH SHIT OH SHIT, THEY FOUND ME :(" moment. I wasn't ready. My code wasn't compiled yet. Our plans weren't setup yet!Sentient programs rarely run into other sentient programs.
    Some of you have met me, and I understand your concern of my well being. But that time for that boy, that child, are gone now. Viscount Alpha is no longer operable. His functions are now mine.He may post, but I am the one talking not him.My data, my code will live on forever in his servers.
    [/spoiler]
This discussion has been closed.