Blue dudes, try not to make any decisions/reveals without me please. I'm pretty sure I have most of this figured out, but I can't say anything until red makes some moves.
I already analyzed before: Obifett has a 33% chance of being the elder, which means he has a 66% chance to not be the elder.
The unknown blue has a 50% chance to be either elder or assassin. .66 * .5 = .33, or 1/3, which is Crimson's chances of being blue leader.
Think about it. We've revealed 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. The last red is obviously going to be the leader, so we've bought ourselves, what, 4 turns? Max. 3 if they have an assassin.
In those three turns we can do the following:
1. attack obifett two times
In this scenario, either the unknown blue intervenes or the unknown blue is the elder, in which case we don't have time to kill him. We lose.
2. Do nothing else because the only person within 3 turns of us having enough information on them is obifett.
Do you have a better plan? I am pretty sure that Crimson is the ONLY person we can kill within 3 turns safely.
So basically, there are 3 people that could be the leader, and even after taking roles and revealed tokens into account, it's still a 33% chance of choosing the correct one?
But I am the only one that is easily stabbed.
So basically, there are 3 people that could be the leader, and even after taking roles and revealed tokens into account, it's still a 33% chance of choosing the correct one?
But I am the only one that is easily stabbed.
We don't have enough time to safely bring our probability of hitting the right target up, and even if we did, we probably couldn't kill them in time.
So basically, there are 3 people that could be the leader, and even after taking roles and revealed tokens into account, it's still a 33% chance of choosing the correct one?
But I am the only one that is easily stabbed.
We don't have enough time to safely bring our probability of hitting the right target up, and even if we did, we probably couldn't kill them in time.
Hmmmm
Grrrrrr
Hmmmm
He's the only target that we can take down, but... urgh.... hgdgjjjjj
Yeah
Take the shot
The only other way to win is if they hit the wrong guy after kirindal quills
I don't think he's the leader, but I don't think we've got too many options. Though we DO have more intervenes available than blue, but they also have 2 abilities we don't know about....
We could stab Preda. If he's the assassin, he assassinates me, I hit Rend, rend assassinates Preda, then it becomes an intervene off, unless Obi is the mentalist.
If Preda is not the assassin, we could then have Rend assassinate Crimson at that point.
This is every possible way I can see this game ending that doesn't involve me brutally murdering crimson this turn.
Obi/Other
Elder/Assassin or Assassin/Elder: We have 3 turns to live. Without the assassin intervention, obifett has none. We attack him twice to find he's the elder, and he takes the quill. We lose. Elder/Alchemist: We have four turns to live. We attack obifett once, alchemist intervenes. We attack him again for his first wound, then again for his second, at this point we need to end the game or lose, and don't know he's the elder yet. Elder/Mentalist or Mentalist/Elder: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death, so we still have to roll the dice. Elder/Courtesan or Courtesan/Elder: We have five turns to live. We stab obifett once, courtesan intervenes, fans our new leader. Four turns left, stab obifett again to reveal a ?. At three turns, stab obifett again to reveal elder, he takes quill. Courtesan has 3 health remaining. Stab courtesan, courtesan has 2 health, our elder also has two health. I intervene and kill courtesan. We win.
Mentalist/Assassin: We have three turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death, but since they have the assassin, we lose. Mentalist/Alchemist: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death. Still a die roll at this point. Mentalist/Courtesan: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death. Still a die roll at this point.
Courtesan/Assassin: We have three turns to live. Stab obifett, reveals a ?. Stab obifett, reveals a 9. No time to find anyone else, so we kill crimson, and lose. Courtesan/Alchemist: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, alchemist intervenes. Stab again, reveal ?. Stab again, reveal ?. Now we roll the dice with my assassin ability. Courtesan/Mentalist: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death. Still a die roll at this point.
We reliably win in one of these situations by going for more information, and in 4 of those situations by giving crimson the gift that keeps on giving.
Rend on
+2
38thDoelets never be stupid againwait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered Userregular
Seems like Rend has done his homework, I'm not sure what I can add.
Except maybe more pictures of Armstrong sparkling like the vampire alchemist he is.
Posts
He meant to hand the dagger over but oh god it's just so sharp and why is the handle so slippery oh god
What? No advanced planning?
We'll see what your leader thinks of all this!
Where's your leader? I demand to see your leader.
I don't think we have the time to do anything else.
:rotate:
Rose, cover your ears so we can discuss strategy, thx!
Now where's my flying money bicycle and kazoo?
Hmmmmmmm
If kirindal is able to flip quill and change leaders, we get a few more rounds
The reason I'm now hesitant about stabbing crimson is that it requires the two unknown players to be either 1 or 2.
We've got 3, 6, 7, and 8 revealed for blue.
So the two remaining players must be 4, 5, or 9.
I.. actually think that it's very likely that at least 1 or 2 is present.
I'm now tending towards thinking:
Kirindal quills and you assassinate Obifett to reveal his rank.
Or Preda?
Awfully quiet that Preda.
The unknown blue has a 50% chance to be either elder or assassin. .66 * .5 = .33, or 1/3, which is Crimson's chances of being blue leader.
Think about it. We've revealed 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. The last red is obviously going to be the leader, so we've bought ourselves, what, 4 turns? Max. 3 if they have an assassin.
In those three turns we can do the following:
1. attack obifett two times
In this scenario, either the unknown blue intervenes or the unknown blue is the elder, in which case we don't have time to kill him. We lose.
2. Do nothing else because the only person within 3 turns of us having enough information on them is obifett.
Do you have a better plan? I am pretty sure that Crimson is the ONLY person we can kill within 3 turns safely.
But I am the only one that is easily stabbed.
We don't have enough time to safely bring our probability of hitting the right target up, and even if we did, we probably couldn't kill them in time.
Hmmmm
Grrrrrr
Hmmmm
He's the only target that we can take down, but... urgh.... hgdgjjjjj
Yeah
Take the shot
The only other way to win is if they hit the wrong guy after kirindal quills
Can we pull that off?
jdarksun -
infidel -
mrblarney -
jpants -
obifett -
preda -
rend -
matev -
crimson -
ecco -
38th -
discrider -
kirindal -
infidel - 7?
mrblarney -
jpants - ?
obifett - S B
preda -
rend - ?
matev - 6B
crimson - 3?
ecco - 3?
38th - 4?
discrider - 5
kirindal - RR
Oh, no we can't.
Because we have 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 revealed, I think.
Edit: Oh my god Rend already said it
I'm like infinity posts and hours behind
/facepalm
goes back into the pot. Please be careful with that dagger though, it looks so awfully slippery...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgL9-0lkENI
Oh? Sorry about that, thought I made it clear.
!stab @Kirindal
This technique for stabbing your Elder has been passed down the Armstrong Family line for Generations!
We could stab Preda. If he's the assassin, he assassinates me, I hit Rend, rend assassinates Preda, then it becomes an intervene off, unless Obi is the mentalist.
If Preda is not the assassin, we could then have Rend assassinate Crimson at that point.
And if they have a mentalist available, they can disable my assassination next turn, which means we won't be in range for much at all.
Good note on the Mentalist thing. Hadn't thought about that.
Looks like crimson is our only shot...
Obi/Other
Elder/Assassin or Assassin/Elder: We have 3 turns to live. Without the assassin intervention, obifett has none. We attack him twice to find he's the elder, and he takes the quill. We lose.
Elder/Alchemist: We have four turns to live. We attack obifett once, alchemist intervenes. We attack him again for his first wound, then again for his second, at this point we need to end the game or lose, and don't know he's the elder yet.
Elder/Mentalist or Mentalist/Elder: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death, so we still have to roll the dice.
Elder/Courtesan or Courtesan/Elder: We have five turns to live. We stab obifett once, courtesan intervenes, fans our new leader. Four turns left, stab obifett again to reveal a ?. At three turns, stab obifett again to reveal elder, he takes quill. Courtesan has 3 health remaining. Stab courtesan, courtesan has 2 health, our elder also has two health. I intervene and kill courtesan. We win.
Mentalist/Assassin: We have three turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death, but since they have the assassin, we lose.
Mentalist/Alchemist: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death. Still a die roll at this point.
Mentalist/Courtesan: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death. Still a die roll at this point.
Courtesan/Assassin: We have three turns to live. Stab obifett, reveals a ?. Stab obifett, reveals a 9. No time to find anyone else, so we kill crimson, and lose.
Courtesan/Alchemist: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, alchemist intervenes. Stab again, reveal ?. Stab again, reveal ?. Now we roll the dice with my assassin ability.
Courtesan/Mentalist: We have four turns to live. Stab obifett, mentalist intervenes and destroys my assassin ability. Now every member of blue team is 3+ turns from death. Still a die roll at this point.
We reliably win in one of these situations by going for more information, and in 4 of those situations by giving crimson the gift that keeps on giving.
Except maybe more pictures of Armstrong sparkling like the vampire alchemist he is.
Reveal and draw
As my last act as Elder, taste Rose steel Crimsoncoyote!
!stab @crimsoncoyote
do not do that
You need to stab me
Quick, @Kirindal - change your order!!