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[European Politics] European Elections: This Time It's Different?

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    Morat242Morat242 Registered User regular
    edited January 2015
    Trace wrote: »
    Wait Greece has an honest to goodness Nazi party?

    nooot the first thing I think of when I think of Greece.
    Unemployment is 26%. Youth unemployment is north of 50%. GDP has fallen by a quarter. And the mainstream parties have all signed on to continuing this indefinitely and are obviously completely out of ideas. So people go to the extremists, because they do have ideas. This is what happens when the economy is in ruins and the political elite is blatantly incompetent. People will find someone else to vote for, or at least not object too much when there's a coup. That's how the Nazis got power the first time, the German government dictated austerity and deflation, which caused massive unemployment and the collapse of the economy. It's just that then the German government did it domestically.

    We like having a scapegoat to blame for their problems. Also, as I said earlier, the Nazis A) reject the EU-imposed austerity and deflation that is destroying Greece's economy and B) really honestly can fix unemployment (briefly).

    Morat242 on
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    YogoYogo Registered User regular
    edited January 2015
    Until Greece actually leaves the EU or a similar story appears, then I don't think there is any more interest to be had.

    I think this thread will, perhaps, experience a revival during the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2015 when a lot of major European player countries have held their elections. At the moment, we see the same trend happening in those countries like in Greece: voters are fleeing from mainstream parties to the fringes and those fringes also happen to be EU-skeptics or Nay-sayers.

    Due to treaties, laws and such, there is limited space to maneuver about when it comes to defying the EU when you are part of it. So short of pulling out of the EU, I don't see what the nay-sayers can do about it.

    Here's a typical example:

    Law A is made to do something. EU finds out that Law B is discriminatory towards certain groups and finds it in violation of its charter. EU tells country to fix it or suffer penalties.

    At this point, the country can either try to "rewrite" the law, so that it still has the same effect but uses different language and different law structures; such as saying it is a rebate on tax (except it now screws over people who happen to be unemployed because they can't pay tax).

    It is similar to how ACA in America was considered a "tax" and therefore within the power of Congress to enact. How a country taxes their people or provides tax rebates is outside of the EU's domain.

    Or they can abolish the law to comply with the EU.

    While a EU-friendly party will just (*ahem*) bend over, a EU-skeptic party will try to fight it, but ultimately can't win. There's a limit to how many laws can be made dependent on tax without screwing over the very people you want to help.

    Yogo on
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    PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Yogo wrote: »
    Until Greece actually leaves the EU or a similar story appears, then I don't think there is any more interest to be had.

    I think this thread will, perhaps, experience a revival during the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2015 when a lot of major European player countries have held their elections. At the moment, we see the same trend happening in those countries like in Greece: voters are fleeing from mainstream parties to the fringes and those fringes also happen to be EU-skeptics or Nay-sayers.

    Due to treaties, laws and such, there is limited space to maneuver about when it comes to defying the EU when you are part of it. So short of pulling out of the EU, I don't see what the nay-sayers can do about it.

    Here's a typical example:

    Law A is made to do something. EU finds out that Law B is discriminatory towards certain groups and finds it in violation of its charter. EU tells country to fix it or suffer penalties.

    At this point, the country can either try to "rewrite" the law, so that it still has the same effect but uses different language and different law structures; such as saying it is a rebate on tax (except it now screws over people who happen to be unemployed because they can't pay tax).

    It is similar to how ACA in America was considered a "tax" and therefore within the power of Congress to enact. How a country taxes their people or provides tax rebates is outside of the EU's domain.

    Or they can abolish the law to comply with the EU.

    While a EU-friendly party will just (*ahem*) bend over, a EU-skeptic party will try to fight it, but ultimately can't win. There's a limit to how many laws can be made dependent on tax without screwing over the very people you want to help.

    I think they have more flexibility than that in realpolitik terms. It's pretty clear that the choice in Greece right now is between a leftist party that wants to work with the EU and a fascist party that wants to hang minorities and Germans from the lampposts. Fear can be a great motivator to relax rigid systems.

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    YogoYogo Registered User regular
    Yogo wrote: »
    Until Greece actually leaves the EU or a similar story appears, then I don't think there is any more interest to be had.

    I think this thread will, perhaps, experience a revival during the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2015 when a lot of major European player countries have held their elections. At the moment, we see the same trend happening in those countries like in Greece: voters are fleeing from mainstream parties to the fringes and those fringes also happen to be EU-skeptics or Nay-sayers.

    Due to treaties, laws and such, there is limited space to maneuver about when it comes to defying the EU when you are part of it. So short of pulling out of the EU, I don't see what the nay-sayers can do about it.

    Here's a typical example:

    Law A is made to do something. EU finds out that Law B is discriminatory towards certain groups and finds it in violation of its charter. EU tells country to fix it or suffer penalties.

    At this point, the country can either try to "rewrite" the law, so that it still has the same effect but uses different language and different law structures; such as saying it is a rebate on tax (except it now screws over people who happen to be unemployed because they can't pay tax).

    It is similar to how ACA in America was considered a "tax" and therefore within the power of Congress to enact. How a country taxes their people or provides tax rebates is outside of the EU's domain.

    Or they can abolish the law to comply with the EU.

    While a EU-friendly party will just (*ahem*) bend over, a EU-skeptic party will try to fight it, but ultimately can't win. There's a limit to how many laws can be made dependent on tax without screwing over the very people you want to help.

    I think they have more flexibility than that in realpolitik terms. It's pretty clear that the choice in Greece right now is between a leftist party that wants to work with the EU and a fascist party that wants to hang minorities and Germans from the lampposts. Fear can be a great motivator to relax rigid systems.

    Question is if the rest of the EU countries see reason to relax the systems. Here's a current interesting scenario:

    Today, all 28 foreign EU ministers met and discuss the recent development in the Ukraine-Russia war. All 28 countries have to vote unanimously for any sanctions to take effect.

    Now, Greece just recently got a EU-skeptic government which seeks to alleviate the effects of the austerity, something which the Troika isn't keen on doing.

    So what if Greece says: Alright, you won't help us, we won't help you, and vetoes the sanction vote. Bam, EU foreign diplomacy nullified.

    So we reach an interesting crux in the EU financial and diplomacy area: Are the rest of the countries, Germany included, willing to handicap foreign EU policy because they won't alleviate the economic troubles of Greece (and thus, they are just union of bankers and not a union of nations) or will they throw Greece a bone in order to appear united and determined?

    Personally, I have no idea. Germany isn't so keen on sanctions in general, so I don't know if they will "piggyback ride" with Greece without having to show their true colors.

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    AstaleAstale Registered User regular
    Yogo wrote: »
    Yogo wrote: »
    Until Greece actually leaves the EU or a similar story appears, then I don't think there is any more interest to be had.

    I think this thread will, perhaps, experience a revival during the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2015 when a lot of major European player countries have held their elections. At the moment, we see the same trend happening in those countries like in Greece: voters are fleeing from mainstream parties to the fringes and those fringes also happen to be EU-skeptics or Nay-sayers.

    Due to treaties, laws and such, there is limited space to maneuver about when it comes to defying the EU when you are part of it. So short of pulling out of the EU, I don't see what the nay-sayers can do about it.

    Here's a typical example:

    Law A is made to do something. EU finds out that Law B is discriminatory towards certain groups and finds it in violation of its charter. EU tells country to fix it or suffer penalties.

    At this point, the country can either try to "rewrite" the law, so that it still has the same effect but uses different language and different law structures; such as saying it is a rebate on tax (except it now screws over people who happen to be unemployed because they can't pay tax).

    It is similar to how ACA in America was considered a "tax" and therefore within the power of Congress to enact. How a country taxes their people or provides tax rebates is outside of the EU's domain.

    Or they can abolish the law to comply with the EU.

    While a EU-friendly party will just (*ahem*) bend over, a EU-skeptic party will try to fight it, but ultimately can't win. There's a limit to how many laws can be made dependent on tax without screwing over the very people you want to help.

    I think they have more flexibility than that in realpolitik terms. It's pretty clear that the choice in Greece right now is between a leftist party that wants to work with the EU and a fascist party that wants to hang minorities and Germans from the lampposts. Fear can be a great motivator to relax rigid systems.

    Question is if the rest of the EU countries see reason to relax the systems. Here's a current interesting scenario:

    Today, all 28 foreign EU ministers met and discuss the recent development in the Ukraine-Russia war. All 28 countries have to vote unanimously for any sanctions to take effect.

    Now, Greece just recently got a EU-skeptic government which seeks to alleviate the effects of the austerity, something which the Troika isn't keen on doing.

    So what if Greece says: Alright, you won't help us, we won't help you, and vetoes the sanction vote. Bam, EU foreign diplomacy nullified.

    So we reach an interesting crux in the EU financial and diplomacy area: Are the rest of the countries, Germany included, willing to handicap foreign EU policy because they won't alleviate the economic troubles of Greece (and thus, they are just union of bankers and not a union of nations) or will they throw Greece a bone in order to appear united and determined?

    Personally, I have no idea. Germany isn't so keen on sanctions in general, so I don't know if they will "piggyback ride" with Greece without having to show their true colors.

    Or they could let Greece leave the euro. That would solve the problem. And is becoming increasingly more likely by the hour, reading their financials.

    Reading the news right now is basically watching an entire country feed itself into a wheat thresher, while patting themselves on the back.

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