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[BREXIT] Farewell Europe, and thanks for all the Fish stocks

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Posts

  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    Does Sturgeon have any actual ability to have Scotland leave the Union

    the answer is no I'm pretty sure

    The Scottish leverage in that scenario is "we'll get super pissy all the time"

    and how will anyone tell the difference

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
    Grog
  • Dis'Dis' Registered User regular
    Tube wrote: »
    Does Sturgeon have any actual ability to have Scotland leave the Union

    the answer is no I'm pretty sure

    The Scottish leverage in that scenario is "we'll get super pissy all the time"

    and how will anyone tell the difference

    One of those fun murky british constitutional issues where no is particularly sure. Does devolution or the old acts of union include the ability for unilateral succession? Ask a bunch of constitionalists and you'll get a bunch of different answers.

    Real answer: it'll come the next time there's a minority government in westminster that needs SNP votes and the SNP feels the mood is for them.

  • GatorGator An alligator in Scotland Registered User regular
    Tube wrote: »
    Does BoJo have any actual ability to have the UK leave the EU

    the answer is no I'm pretty sure

    The British leverage in that scenario is "we'll get super pissy all the time"

    and how will anyone tell the difference

    LTM
  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    Yeah but it turns out the UK absolutely have an ability to leave the EU

    It's kind of been on the news a lot I'm surprised you missed it

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
    SolarBahamutZERO
  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    I think it's a case of if Sturgeon kicks off and say, you leave, we voted overwhelmingly to stay, we deserve a referendum then this will become another big ugly political spat like it was last time

    May doesn't want another referendum on the Union as she's said multiple times and insinuated even more times. She knows if the SNP scream loudly and legitimately enough about one (and over Brexit, they might) then she sort of has to have one at some point, which she'll probably lose the Union over, and the longer she denies that referendum, the more likely it is that the Union will split up. So I think it's less of a case of Sturgeon getting to pull the cord on the Union bomb, and more a case of May realising that she can't just ignore Sturgeon because she's Scotland's First Minister, she's hugely popular in Scotland, she's done very well recently and indeed is the most stable party leader in the UK at the moment with no small number of votes behind her.

    May says, Brexit must go ahead. May then says, Scotland has the right to pull the plug on Brexit. SNP say, fuck you no Brexit. There is a constitutional crisis but EU membership remains and the Union is solidified. I'm not saying it's likely to go that way (I think we will leave) but it seems like a potential scenario.

  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    The referendum was supposed to a once in a generation thing. May absolutely has the right to just say "Nah bro, vote was the vote. You don't get to reroll until you get the stats you want", which is all this really is.

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
  • JoeUserJoeUser Registered User regular
    Well the UK leaving the EU is a big game changer, another once in a generation thing. I totally understand Scotland thinking another referendum would be appropriate.

    PSN: JoeUser80 Steam
    RMS OceanicameybesFAQDedwrekkaZibblsnrtAshcroftSlacker71VegemyteFencingsaxSkeithgtrmpGatorDerrick
  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    She also has the right to wrangle herself a political winner by throwing the ball to Sturgeon and letting her take the flack, too. If she wanted to exchange this mess for another mess which she feels she can deal with more effectively...

    I wouldn't necessarily say yeah sure I admire it but it wouldn't be the first time a PM decided to pass the heat off someone else by devolving a responsibility and it won't be the last. Although I do think that Brexit is pretty inevitable at this stage.

    Also yes I agree with you re. the Union but at the same time, there is such a thing as treating a situation more delicately than constitutionally or legally you have the right to, because if you just put the foot down that could cause a break-up of the Union in the future. I dunno.

    tynic
  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    JoeUser wrote: »
    Well the UK leaving the EU is a big game changer, another once in a generation thing. I totally understand Scotland thinking another referendum would be appropriate.

    A big part of the anti-independence argument was that indyScot would have trouble joining the EU because they wouldn't be grandfathered in, so it's easier to stay.

    With that argument now rendered moot, you can see why the circumstances might merit another vote.

    Zibblsnrt
  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Total Goober Registered User regular
    Tube wrote: »
    The referendum was supposed to a once in a generation thing. May absolutely has the right to just say "Nah bro, vote was the vote. You don't get to reroll until you get the stats you want", which is all this really is.

    I'd say it's fair since the EU was a big part of the Stay argument, that Britain was in the EU and Scotland would have to reapply.

    But now Britian's EU member ship is in question. I understand "once in a lifetime" and was a supporter of Stay last time, but things have changed so much I think a second referendum is fair.

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    I mean, some might argue that the country is in a very delicate state.

    All these recent referendums have been shitstorms. They divide people and cause a lot of uncertainty because nobody knows exactly how they will go... there's arguably considerably more economic uncertainty caused by referendums than General Elections, for example.

    I don't want a PM to go stomping around pushing their constitutional right to do shit in people's faces at the moment, to be honest.

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Although thinking about it perhaps we are all getting the wrong end of the stick

    perhaps May went to speak to Sturgeon because Trident got renewed and the SNP is very anti-Trident

    That would make a degree of sense, after all

  • JoeUserJoeUser Registered User regular
    So I guess Labour is done for the foreseeable future:
    Corbyn has a lead of more than 20 points over both his main rivals, the YouGov poll suggests. In a two-way contest he would beat Angela Eagle by 24 points and Owen Smith by 22 points, the poll suggests. And if all three were on the ballot Corbyn (on 54%) would be 18 points ahead of the combined total of Eagle (21%) and Smith (15%) on first preference votes, the poll suggests.

    PSN: JoeUser80 Steam
    Panda4You
  • Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    edited July 2016
    Tube wrote: »
    The referendum was supposed to a once in a generation thing. May absolutely has the right to just say "Nah bro, vote was the vote. You don't get to reroll until you get the stats you want", which is all this really is.

    If the Scottish parliament passes a bill for a second referendum it would would be a very, very brave Prime Minister that rejected it.



    Orrrr, voting No and getting taken about by the rest of the UK.

    Alistair Hutton on
    I have a thoughtful and infrequently updated blog about games http://whatithinkaboutwhenithinkaboutgames.wordpress.com/

    I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.

    Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
    RMS Oceanic
  • GumpyGumpy There is always a greater powerRegistered User regular
    The Eagle has dropped out of the race

    That was... not the start the PLP needed to take on Corbyn. This has made the challengers look weaker then they already were

  • KarlKarl Registered User regular
    I'm taking the practical route of voting lib den as labour burns.

    I think nothing short of a crushing election defeat to fix this

    YOU'RE ALL BABIES.
    SO MUCH POTENTIAL TO WASTE.
    Koshian wrote: »
    JOKE'S ON YOU
    MY POTENTIAL IS ALREADY WASTED
  • AshcroftAshcroft LOL The PayloadRegistered User regular
    This is all just so depressing.

    I voted for Corbyn because I agreed with a lot of what he had to say, and I still do. He'll win this election too, but it's hard to see a postive outcome to any of this. His hardcore supporters are the fucking worst, to the point where I'm almost embarrassed to say I voted for him. They're a disgrace to Labour and the human race in general.

    The PLP can still go fuck itself sideways for undermining Corbyn from the moment he became leader, but right now I just want a stable Labour party that opposes the Tory cuts, and one that can actually win a general election. I think the only hope is Corbyn leaving of his own accord sometime before the next election (I'd actually still like the PLP to support him for real, but that's never going to happen). But the PLP have to be smart (ha!). If they keep trying to force him out, they're just going to lose a lot of the working class. Even though UKIP would happily feed them to cattle, a lot of the working class are daft enough to vote for them purely out of anger. If Labour start losing seats here in the north they really are fucked, it'll be hard enough to win a GE without Scotland. There needs to be a nice calm handover of power to a leader that everyone can get behind, sometime next year.

    But, I think we'll probably just get years of fighting until the PLP finds a way to change the rules so that they can have a leadership vote where Corbyn isn't an option, and then the new leader will be in charge of a Labour party with no Union support.

    Hermanopots+pans
  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    Gumpy wrote: »
    The Eagle has dropped out of the race

    That was... not the start the PLP needed to take on Corbyn. This has made the challengers look weaker then they already were

    It's the right thing to do. It shows unity, and she had zero chance

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
    AshcroftSolarDis'
  • GrogGrog My sword is only steel in a useful shape.Registered User regular
    Had the slightly surreal experience of passing Corbyn in the street this evening.

    rm4k6cctdpin.png

  • GumpyGumpy There is always a greater powerRegistered User regular
    Tube wrote: »
    Gumpy wrote: »
    The Eagle has dropped out of the race

    That was... not the start the PLP needed to take on Corbyn. This has made the challengers look weaker then they already were

    It's the right thing to do. It shows unity, and she had zero chance

    Oh yes, undoubtedly this is the best way to navigate out of the situation. Deciding who the candidate was before they both declared would have been a better challenge, but maybe she was rolled out first to take the majority of the heat?

  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    I don't think deciding in advance makes any real difference. There doesn't seem to be any animosity, they clearly said "we'll see who the frontrunner is and the other drops out"

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
  • AshcroftAshcroft LOL The PayloadRegistered User regular
    I still can't figure out why either of them are running. Now is clearly not the time to try and oust Corbyn. He's resolved to stay, there isn't a General Election for years, and he's massively ahead in the polls. All they've gone is rally Momentum. Maybe they were certain that Corbyn would have to get the nominations? It all seems rushed and poorly thought out.

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    It is rushed and poorly thought out

    The problem is that the base want Corbyn, so dramatically that he'll definitely win. Nobody can contest him.

    The PLP want to win elections which they don't think Corbyn can do (and hey, they may very well be right. I think they're right, anyway). And let's not be uncharitable here. The PLP is made up of a lot of very hard working people who have strong ideals, but it's also made up of career politicians who encounter their constituents on a regular basis and are extremely aware of the necessities of winning the election to actually get some stuff done.

    So the PLP want rid as they fear walking into a third consecutive defeat, but have the problem where the base will vote for him anyway.

    It is, essentially, the Donald Trump situation. Corbyn bears far more resemblence to him in terms of the party's more extremist base dominating the leadership election to potentially choose an unelectable candidate in the General. Momentum hate Blair because he's too rightist in the same way that, I dunno, the Republican base hate some past Republican leaders because they're not extreme enough.

  • AshcroftAshcroft LOL The PayloadRegistered User regular
    I understand them wanting to win, but the council elections went fine, as did the by-election and Mayoral votes. If there was any danger of a snap general election then I'd understand the urgency, but there isn't going to be one for nearly 4 years. I just don't see the logic in forcing a vote that you know you won't win, when you don't need to.

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    I also think it's fair to say that the PLP think that Corbyn did a shit job with the Referendum

    And hey, you know, I don't think he did a good one myself.

    Like, that's another reason why the vote of no confidence took place. There was a crisis point following the referendum loss where the PLP actually mostly lacked confidence in Corbyn.

    I dunno. I think that the PLP have fucked this one up, to be honest. But then I also think Corbyn hasn't been a good leader, and also that the party membership bears it's share of the responsibility too. Fuck, man, some people in Momentum would rather an unelectable Corbyn than an electable Labour candidate anywhere to the left of him. They'd rather lose than compromise at all. Which is despicable, IMO, but whatever.

    htm
  • Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    Ashcroft wrote: »
    I understand them wanting to win, but the council elections went fine, as did the by-election and Mayoral votes. If there was any danger of a snap general election then I'd understand the urgency, but there isn't going to be one for nearly 4 years. I just don't see the logic in forcing a vote that you know you won't win, when you don't need to.

    They did fine in the council elections but fine isn't enough. As opposition you need to be crushing it in the council elections to stand a chance at the general.

    I have a thoughtful and infrequently updated blog about games http://whatithinkaboutwhenithinkaboutgames.wordpress.com/

    I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.

    Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
    CptKemzik
  • JoeUserJoeUser Registered User regular
    PSN: JoeUser80 Steam
  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    If the PLP had gotten behind Corbyn from the outset instead of immediately flipping the fuck out, they might have been able to help steer the ship. I don't have a lot of sympathy for them generally.

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
    ProlegomenatynicCptKemzik
  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    I realised the other day that the Tories just field better candidates than Labour. They haven't had a really lame one since... I don't know, I guess John Major? Maybe IDS depending on how you feel?

    They haven't had a real, Ed Milliband level schmuck in my whole lifetime, they were just generally running against the unstoppable electoral juggernaut that was Tony Blair. May is, once again, a good candidate who has every chance of routing them at the next general. Admittedly, the Tories have fielded way more candidates in that time, but still. Since Blair they've fielded three candidates and two of them have been absolute fucking disasters. Maybe they need to look at the Tory selection process and steal some shit.

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
    LiiyaSolartynicGumpy
  • htmhtm Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    I also think it's fair to say that the PLP think that Corbyn did a shit job with the Referendum

    And hey, you know, I don't think he did a good one myself.

    Like, that's another reason why the vote of no confidence took place. There was a crisis point following the referendum loss where the PLP actually mostly lacked confidence in Corbyn.

    I dunno. I think that the PLP have fucked this one up, to be honest. But then I also think Corbyn hasn't been a good leader, and also that the party membership bears it's share of the responsibility too. Fuck, man, some people in Momentum would rather an unelectable Corbyn than an electable Labour candidate anywhere to the left of him. They'd rather lose than compromise at all. Which is despicable, IMO, but whatever.

    Corbyn's historically been really skeptical of the EU, no? I don't think he's shedding any tears that Leave won. The PLP attempted coup against him was partly because there's the widespread belief that he and some of his supporters were, at the very least, unenthusiastic about campaigning for Remain, and may have have actually sabotaged the Labor pro-Remain effort.

    And the PLP probably fucked up, but it's hard to see how Labor as it's currently constituted will ever win again given that the SNP has taken all their Scottish parliamentary seats. Corbyn seems like he's going to be the captain of the Titanic.

    Panda4You
  • GatorGator An alligator in Scotland Registered User regular
    Tube wrote: »
    Yeah but it turns out the UK absolutely have an ability to leave the EU

    It's kind of been on the news a lot I'm surprised you missed it

    I'm surprised that you believe that Scotland does not have the ability to leave the UK, especially since the first significant political event after the Scottish referendum was a violent stabbing in the front by a motley crew of arsonists and racists

    Tommy2Hands
  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    I guess I feel like these things are based on more than "waht I reckon..."

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
  • GatorGator An alligator in Scotland Registered User regular
    You're living in a world where BoJo is the Foreign Minister

    "what I reckon" is the new status quo, and I'd definitely not be discarding the possibility of a second Scottish referendum in 10, perhaps even 5 years' time, especially if Brexit turns out to be an absolute shitshow

  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    edited July 2016
    Tube wrote: »
    I realised the other day that the Tories just field better candidates than Labour. They haven't had a really lame one since... I don't know, I guess John Major? Maybe IDS depending on how you feel?

    They haven't had a real, Ed Milliband level schmuck in my whole lifetime, they were just generally running against the unstoppable electoral juggernaut that was Tony Blair. May is, once again, a good candidate who has every chance of routing them at the next general. Admittedly, the Tories have fielded way more candidates in that time, but still. Since Blair they've fielded three candidates and two of them have been absolute fucking disasters. Maybe they need to look at the Tory selection process and steal some shit.

    I mean, John Major won an election. That's more than any Labour candidate other than Blair since 1974. And you know what Harold Wilson was? A centrist! He was a centrist! Momentum would throw bricks through his window, he'd never win the candidacy in modern Labour.

    The Tory candidates between losing in 1997 and Cameron were pretty poor. IDS, William Hague and Michael Howard? Pretty poor. But then, they were all facing, you guessed it, Tony Blair. And say what you like about Blair, as you say, the man never lost a General Election.

    Solar on
  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    I think those were three good candidates personally. Competitive at least. No huge gaffes, no insanely heinous personalities, able to hold their own in PMQs. Not disastrous by any means.

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Difficult to tell, really. I'd argue that IDS was pretty useless, but it didn't really matter in the end. Tony Blair + the public remembering the last years of Tory administration under Major meant that they were almost destined to lose.

    But you are right. There's a Prime Ministerial look about some candidates that Labour just seem to lack. I mean, can you imagine if The Eagle had run against Theresa May? It'd be like watching one of those wildlife videos where David Attenborough narrates a ferocious savannah beast tearing some herbivore to bits.

    (You know what is the worst thing though? I reckon that there was someone who looked Prime Ministerial in Labour, given some more years as an MP and with some experience; Jo Cox. She was a good speaker (not incredible, but her inaugural commons speech was pretty good), she looked authoritative and confident, and she wasn't a gaffe-generating weirdo.)

    tynic
  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    Mo Mowlam was the great Labour leader that never was.

    Angela Eagle's performances after putting herself up as a candidate were so awful that I knew she'd never get anywhere.

    Hobnail wrote: »
    This forum has taken everything from me
    Prolegomena
  • JoeUserJoeUser Registered User regular
    PSN: JoeUser80 Steam
  • KarlKarl Registered User regular
    JoeUser wrote: »

    No it's fine

    We'll refuse to budge

    They need us
    we actually need them more, we're going to agree to freedom of movement and this entire sorry episode was a waste of fucking time.

    May has positioned herself to be covered, whichever way the deal pans out.

    YOU'RE ALL BABIES.
    SO MUCH POTENTIAL TO WASTE.
    Koshian wrote: »
    JOKE'S ON YOU
    MY POTENTIAL IS ALREADY WASTED
    htmRMS Oceanic
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