"A survey of 625 likely voters conducted last weekend shows the Democrat Clinton with 41 percent to the Republican Trump’s 40 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9 percent. The telephone poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points."
What's the usual (or average or median) sample size in these polls? 625 seems small to me but I'm not familiar with typical numbers.
edit - also Gary Johnson 9% wtf. I wonder why Johnson seems to be getting significantly more exposure or support than Jill Stein.
I mean, Johnson was an actual governor with a national profile for doing things and the Libertarian party gets at least a nonzero number of people elected, along with actually being on the ballot in enough states to (theoretically) win.
It's a massively stronger party than the Green party.
I don't agree with the libertarians but They have about as strong a ticket as they have had for a while. They are currently on the ballots in most states and should be on the remainders before the election and they are running two known GOP governors on their ticket. Given trump I could easily see the libertarian party at least getting enough polling to get onto the debate stage. I think they get plowed by clinton and trump mostly because they are exactly the type of republicans that their voter base rejected so forcefully in the primaries.
I think they're going to have a very hard time getting on to the debate stage.
Their outlier high-polls are currently sitting at 10-12% after the RNC. Putting on my Pundit Hat (tm), I can see the RNC giving the Libertarians a boost at peeling off Clinton supporters but I see the DNC as much more likely to reel people back in to Clinton than to have them jump from Trump to Johnson. It's possible a continued negative campaign and bad news cycles propel them upwards, but they aren't in a solid position to hit the debate stage.
milski on
I ate an engineer
+1
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AthenorBattle Hardened OptimistThe Skies of HiigaraRegistered Userregular
The lasting image I think I have of the RNC was the screens and audio just cutting out randomly. Like.. not just the backing projectors, but the actual internet feed too.
"Before I go, I just want to tell the American public, if you want to learn to play an instrument, try the harmonica. It's ok to suck. In fact, thats how you make half the notes."
DAD JOKES!
Wow, he is like Mr Rogers and Bob Ross's lovechild.
Motherfucker introduced his wife's speech on day one! He walked out into the crowd to distract from Cruz's turd in the punchbowl!
Christ, what an ignorant asshole.
It's like he hopes no one was paying any attention to the single largest media event of the week to effortlessly prove him wrong.
no
he simply doesn't care about being caught in a lie
+26
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HakkekageSpace Whore Academysumma cum laudeRegistered Userregular
I'm sorry. I tried so hard to stay awake. But after pushing the envelope of my sleep schedule for the entire week it just wasn't happening. I'm sorry Hillary and also Chelsea, whose speech I caught snippets off while drifting off in between dings on my phone from the Discord chat
3DS: 2165 - 6538 - 3417
NNID: Hakkekage
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
I'm sorry. I tried so hard to stay awake. But after pushing the envelope of my sleep schedule for the entire week it just wasn't happening. I'm sorry Hillary and also Chelsea, whose speech I caught snippets off while drifting off in between dings on my phone from the Discord chat
I didn't gym all week cuz I stayed up late to watch this shit oops
Donald Trump is easily going to be remembered in history as the most prolific, petulant, entitled asshole in existence.
Generations from now, regardless of the election, he will be remembered as a national embarrassment.
I want him to get blown out so bad
I want to see the entire fucking map blue to prove how poisonous his rhetoric is to an enlightened western democracy
I want him to get electorally curbstomped so hard that fifty years from now, politicians have to pause for a second before hitting ENGAGE on that subspace-Tweet and wonder "Is this something Donald Trump would have said?" and run screaming from it
First they came for the Muslims, and we said NOT TODAY, MOTHERFUCKERS
"Before I go, I just want to tell the American public, if you want to learn to play an instrument, try the harmonica. It's ok to suck. In fact, thats how you make half the notes."
...s-seriously?
Yes.
They asked him about his harmonicas and he said he has 6 at all times, but they're in his briefcase and he didn't have it with him because he "didn't want to inflict that kind of cognitive dissonance on the American public this early in the morning." He said he will have them on the campaign trail though and would be happy to play at any time.
Then she thanked him for his time, and he said that gem above.
So, on the Democratic side we've got the happiest, most jovial guy who's upbeat and awesome and carries harmonicas around.
“I’m pro-life and I don’t apologize for it,” [Mike Pence] said during a town hall meeting here. “We’ll see Roe vs. Wade consigned to the ash heap of history where it belongs.”
Donald Trump is easily going to be remembered in history as the most prolific, petulant, entitled asshole in existence.
Generations from now, regardless of the election, he will be remembered as a national embarrassment.
Here is an interesting question.
If he loses (and we hope he does), does he run again in 2020?
I doubt his ego would be able to handle being trounced in the primaries. Which is what will happen.
If he doesn't win this time, the GOP is going to fight hard to reclaim the message that they just ceded to the Democratic Party last night.
This is what people said in 2008 and 2012 as well. So far they've only been moving further and further right every time.
True, but I don't remember the Democrats staking a claim on their message as well as they did this convention. Who knows if they'll keep at it during the campaign, but if Trump loses it could finally force a restructuring of the party.
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HakkekageSpace Whore Academysumma cum laudeRegistered Userregular
I don't necessarily want a Mondale map, but I want this election to show not just the Republican Party but every single person in the nation that behaving like Trump is NOT OKAY. I want to replace "douche" and "asshole" in our slang dictionary with "Trump".
I loved Hillary's "Bully" ad and I hope they can come out with more along those lines.
These are not feelings I had last year when Trump entered the race.
If I were feeling charitable I would suggest it's an autocorrect mistake and he was trying to type "speech".
But it's more likely the fact that any time Hillary raises her voice at all they describe her as shrill or screaming because sexism.
“I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
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SteevLWhat can I do for you?Registered Userregular
edited July 2016
I really wonder which way my parents will go this election. I'm pretty sure they both voted Democrat up until 2000, although my dad has said he's voted for people from both parties in the past. I think it was around the year 2000 that my mom started watching Bill O'Reilly on Fox News, and my dad would watch it with her. Their news evenings for those first few years of Fox News usually involved switching between Fox, CNN, and MSNBC during primetime, but gradually CNN and MSNBC fell by the wayside. It was to the point that Fox was the only news channel that they watched. When I finally moved out two years ago, my dad would DVR the morning news shows on there, and probably still does.
My parents are not religious. My dad's family was secular until he was a teenager, when suddenly they decided they had to be Catholics (I suspect this was a reaction to the Red Scare, as people in his extended family were members of the Communist Party). He went to college a few years later and the church never took hold with him. My mom's mother was a Jehovah's Witness, but her father was not.
My mom has vague feelings of an afterlife or something, and she is hugely anti-abortion. My dad absolutely hates affirmative action based on his experience with it at a place he worked from the 1960s until the 1980s. He gets red-in-the-face angry when people talk about wanting racial equality and thinks everyone is already equal now. All of this was really amplified by the time Obama was elected in 2008. I remember one time when Obama was on TV and he stomped out of the room, yelling "HE'S A N---!" repeatedly. It is also no coincidence that 2008 was the last time I willingly talked about politics with my parents.
Based on what I just said, Trump seems like the perfect representation of my dad's views. My mom, on the other hand, apparently cannot stand Trump. And the other night she mentioned how she really wanted to see Bill Clinton's speech. They both voted for Clinton twice. I think she still has fond memories of his administration, but also really hates that he cheated on Hillary and doesn't like that Hillary stayed married to him.
So, yeah. No idea where they'll vote in November, but they're in Florida so their vote matters quite a bit. Hopefully they choose Johnson or something, because I don't see my dad voting Democrat ever again anyway.
Donald Trump is easily going to be remembered in history as the most prolific, petulant, entitled asshole in existence.
Generations from now, regardless of the election, he will be remembered as a national embarrassment.
Here is an interesting question.
If he loses (and we hope he does), does he run again in 2020?
I doubt his ego would be able to handle being trounced in the primaries. Which is what will happen.
If he doesn't win this time, the GOP is going to fight hard to reclaim the message that they just ceded to the Democratic Party last night.
This is what people said in 2008 and 2012 as well. So far they've only been moving further and further right every time.
True, but I don't remember the Democrats staking a claim on their message as well as they did this convention. Who knows if they'll keep at it during the campaign, but if Trump loses it could finally force a restructuring of the party.
Running as the party of positivity vs Trumps gloom and doom message is a good one
Donald Trump is easily going to be remembered in history as the most prolific, petulant, entitled asshole in existence.
Generations from now, regardless of the election, he will be remembered as a national embarrassment.
Here is an interesting question.
If he loses (and we hope he does), does he run again in 2020?
I doubt his ego would be able to handle being trounced in the primaries. Which is what will happen.
If he doesn't win this time, the GOP is going to fight hard to reclaim the message that they just ceded to the Democratic Party last night.
This is what people said in 2008 and 2012 as well. So far they've only been moving further and further right every time.
True, but I don't remember the Democrats staking a claim on their message as well as they did this convention. Who knows if they'll keep at it during the campaign, but if Trump loses it could finally force a restructuring of the party.
it was sort of weird having generals and leon panetta speak (and then get "no more wars" chants at them because lefties). i wonder if that's historically common for democrats
I don't necessarily want a Mondale map, but I want this election to show not just the Republican Party but every single person in the nation that behaving like Trump is NOT OKAY. I want to replace "douche" and "asshole" in our slang dictionary with "Trump".
I loved Hillary's "Bully" ad and I hope they can come out with more along those lines.
These are not feelings I had last year when Trump entered the race.
I want this, too, but I can't get that Seth Myers clip out of my brain.
She made up how she criminally concealed the records of her criminally ordering the Benghazi attack causing the criminal deaths of Americans inside the 33,000 emails she criminally deleted from her criminally set up email account.
Donald Trump is easily going to be remembered in history as the most prolific, petulant, entitled asshole in existence.
Generations from now, regardless of the election, he will be remembered as a national embarrassment.
Here is an interesting question.
If he loses (and we hope he does), does he run again in 2020?
I doubt his ego would be able to handle being trounced in the primaries. Which is what will happen.
If he doesn't win this time, the GOP is going to fight hard to reclaim the message that they just ceded to the Democratic Party last night.
This is what people said in 2008 and 2012 as well. So far they've only been moving further and further right every time.
True, but I don't remember the Democrats staking a claim on their message as well as they did this convention. Who knows if they'll keep at it during the campaign, but if Trump loses it could finally force a restructuring of the party.
it was sort of weird having generals and leon panetta speak (and then get "no more wars" chants at them because lefties). i wonder if that's historically common for democrats
Parts of this week's DNC reminded me pretty heavily of the Republican conventions from earlier in this century; I remember previous DNCs being much more sedate.
Pretty sure that's been a very intentional move to try and pick up some GOP voters who are wavering in the face of Trump.
Posts
Way to really step up and show leadership. Real presidential material. I can't see how he could lose, Hillary must be terrified.
IVE BEEN SAYING THIS!
It's like he hopes no one was paying any attention to the single largest media event of the week to effortlessly prove him wrong.
I think they're going to have a very hard time getting on to the debate stage.
Their outlier high-polls are currently sitting at 10-12% after the RNC. Putting on my Pundit Hat (tm), I can see the RNC giving the Libertarians a boost at peeling off Clinton supporters but I see the DNC as much more likely to reel people back in to Clinton than to have them jump from Trump to Johnson. It's possible a continued negative campaign and bad news cycles propel them upwards, but they aren't in a solid position to hit the debate stage.
Wow, he is like Mr Rogers and Bob Ross's lovechild.
I dunno, maybe he has a point. He did want Ditka and Don King, among many other 80s sports icons, to be big parts of the campaign.
no
he simply doesn't care about being caught in a lie
NNID: Hakkekage
man that would be sweet
Iron Mike, Hulk Hogan, Jake the Snake, William "Refrigerator" Perry doing the Super Bowl Shuffle, Dorothy Hamill spinning around everywhere
Mr. T could say, "Stay in school! Drink milk! Don't do drugs, turkey!"
Now that is a real Donald Trump tweet.
Good article from '94
Tells a lot
@So It Goes
Generations from now, regardless of the election, he will be remembered as a national embarrassment.
hey donnie
what did she make up
give us a list, eh?
I didn't gym all week cuz I stayed up late to watch this shit oops
I honestly don't think he even thinks about it as lying. Processing doesn't involve logic that complex. It's like
10 SAY SOMETHING THAT MAKES ME LOOK GOOD
20 SAY SOMETHING THAT MAKES MY ENEMIES LOOK BAD
30 SAY SOMETHING THAT GETS ME WHAT I WANT
40 GOTO 10
If he loses (and we hope he does), does he run again in 2020?
"Oh you just wouldn't believe the things she said, you just wouldn't believe them OK? They were such huge lies!"
It's better than that if you put it next to his other tweet from before the speech.
"OK everyone, don't watch Hillary's speech. Nobody watch it! .... I watched it for you, it's all lies about me, lies I say!"
I want him to get blown out so bad
I want to see the entire fucking map blue to prove how poisonous his rhetoric is to an enlightened western democracy
I want him to get electorally curbstomped so hard that fifty years from now, politicians have to pause for a second before hitting ENGAGE on that subspace-Tweet and wonder "Is this something Donald Trump would have said?" and run screaming from it
I doubt his ego would be able to handle being trounced in the primaries. Which is what will happen.
If he doesn't win this time, the GOP is going to fight hard to reclaim the message that they just ceded to the Democratic Party last night.
Oh hell no
The day after, he'll be blowing it off as something he was only doing for funsies and how if he was taking it seriously he'd have won in a landslide
And then he'll climb to the top of his tower and resume getting sued
This is what people said in 2008 and 2012 as well. So far they've only been moving further and further right every time.
Like is there a whole committee on keeping him distracted with shiny objects while other people get things done?
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
So, on the Democratic side we've got the happiest, most jovial guy who's upbeat and awesome and carries harmonicas around.
On the Republican side...
Good luck with that, Donnie.
True, but I don't remember the Democrats staking a claim on their message as well as they did this convention. Who knows if they'll keep at it during the campaign, but if Trump loses it could finally force a restructuring of the party.
She's shrill
but like, so-so
NNID: Hakkekage
We should be taking this time to get as many of the pols who kissed the ring to repeat their support for him so they can be buried in it next cycle
Switch - SW-7373-3669-3011
Fuck Joe Manchin
I loved Hillary's "Bully" ad and I hope they can come out with more along those lines.
These are not feelings I had last year when Trump entered the race.
If you have ovaries in Trumpworld, you're automatically too hysterical to make a speech.
If I were feeling charitable I would suggest it's an autocorrect mistake and he was trying to type "speech".
But it's more likely the fact that any time Hillary raises her voice at all they describe her as shrill or screaming because sexism.
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
My parents are not religious. My dad's family was secular until he was a teenager, when suddenly they decided they had to be Catholics (I suspect this was a reaction to the Red Scare, as people in his extended family were members of the Communist Party). He went to college a few years later and the church never took hold with him. My mom's mother was a Jehovah's Witness, but her father was not.
My mom has vague feelings of an afterlife or something, and she is hugely anti-abortion. My dad absolutely hates affirmative action based on his experience with it at a place he worked from the 1960s until the 1980s. He gets red-in-the-face angry when people talk about wanting racial equality and thinks everyone is already equal now. All of this was really amplified by the time Obama was elected in 2008. I remember one time when Obama was on TV and he stomped out of the room, yelling "HE'S A N---!" repeatedly. It is also no coincidence that 2008 was the last time I willingly talked about politics with my parents.
Based on what I just said, Trump seems like the perfect representation of my dad's views. My mom, on the other hand, apparently cannot stand Trump. And the other night she mentioned how she really wanted to see Bill Clinton's speech. They both voted for Clinton twice. I think she still has fond memories of his administration, but also really hates that he cheated on Hillary and doesn't like that Hillary stayed married to him.
So, yeah. No idea where they'll vote in November, but they're in Florida so their vote matters quite a bit. Hopefully they choose Johnson or something, because I don't see my dad voting Democrat ever again anyway.
Running as the party of positivity vs Trumps gloom and doom message is a good one
and a natural extension of Obama's campiagns
I want this, too, but I can't get that Seth Myers clip out of my brain.
48% of this country is shithead uncles.
She made up how she criminally concealed the records of her criminally ordering the Benghazi attack causing the criminal deaths of Americans inside the 33,000 emails she criminally deleted from her criminally set up email account.
Parts of this week's DNC reminded me pretty heavily of the Republican conventions from earlier in this century; I remember previous DNCs being much more sedate.
Pretty sure that's been a very intentional move to try and pick up some GOP voters who are wavering in the face of Trump.