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The [presidential election] is done with conventions

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Posts

  • WinkyWinky Registered User regular
    omg the now cast is almost down to single digits for trump

    i mean i know it's just the now cast but

    He's not very popular at the moment.

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    One of the Hispanic only polling outfits has Trump at 13% in Florida. That's way below the Republican baseline.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
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  • WinkyWinky Registered User regular
    Let's hold the election today pls

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Well a lot of post convention polling came out. He'll bounce back up to 30% next week and everyone will FREAK OUT CLINTON IS DOOMED!

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    glimmung wrote: »
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    glimmung wrote: »
    glimmung wrote: »
    Is there a nice interactive map out there with decent cross tabs? I really kinda want to see what drives the urban rural political divide. There is no way that a city/town that hits some median population just flips blue.

    There must be plenty of poly-sci papers on the subject but I don't have journal access.

    Google "The Great Sortition".

    That brings up a stormfront link and a redit discussion.

    yea I was actually curious about it and I think Hedgie is saying that it's a self selecting thing, that liberal people move into cities and conservatives move out of them, not that the city itself makes them liberal or rural environs make people conservative.

    But I'd be interested in reading an article about it :p

    There are probably also factors that drive city folk to prioritize differently than country folk.

    Urban areas rely more on public transportation. They have bigger issues with crime. They have higher minority populations. They have larger, more encompassing governments.

    Rural areas are more isolated. The governments are smaller. You have to rely more on your neighbors and less on government programs. Public transportation is often not even really an option.

    I can see how living in a city would make you more sympathetic towards liberal appreciation of government and living in the country would make you more sympathetic towards conservative notions of personal freedom.

    I would be really surprised if cities actually have per capita difference in crime.

    They definitely do in California, based on violent crime stats between predominantly rural and urban counties.

    Not sure about nonviolent crime rates; I don't deal with those so much.

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  • milskimilski Their Will comes, at last, to Earth, to the Neath, as a storm crosses the sea. Registered User regular
    I mean, I would expect cities to have a higher crime rate simply because increased population density presents more opportunity for crime, and crime is very strongly correlated with means.

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  • MazzyxMazzyx I can dig it. Registered User regular
    And in counterprogramming against stupid, Clinton's rally in Colorado:


    My dad went and said it was packed and really good.

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  • ShadowhopeShadowhope Baa. Registered User regular
    Whether the per capita crime rate is higher or lower, the same per capita crime right in a city puts crimes a lot closer than it does in the country. You could live in a small country town where there's 10,000 people in a twenty-five mile radius, or you could live in a city where there's 10,000 people living within a five minute walk. The same per capita crime rate means that instead of the crime happening at the Johnson place across the seventh concession, it's happening just above the Starbucks you pass on the way to work every morning.

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  • CrayonCrayon Sleeps in the wrong bed. TejasRegistered User regular
    So, I work in a predominantly republican field and they all kind of know me as one of the few resident leftists, which is fine because they naturally are pretty cool with it as I'm mostly one of the few who speaks up for time paid/labor rights/concerns within our group to higher management-anywho, during a meeting today I heard a fairly silly and slightly disturbing take on this whole Trump thing. So, I live in Texas, went to college in Texas and live in Texas-so, naturally, I was raised like most Texans are. Okay, so to the point-two or so people next to me (one a decent friend who I have drinks with on occasion, he's a moderate mostly) are talking about a local store going out of business and their .308 ammo is pretty much "steal as much as you can" and I tell them, "oh cool-I'll have to get in on that." As I said before, I was kind of raised around responsible gun ownership, hunting, etc. Anywho, the super-Trump supporter felt the need to throw in, "what? Liberals can't own guns." I say, "you'd be surprised at how many left leaning folk I know who are not only pro-gun ownership but also own several guns for protection and hunting." Get this, get this-his reply is "yeah, well when Trump gets elected that'll change for you libtards."

    I was actually taken aback, and didn't know what to say so I just kind of threw it out there, "in the immortal words of one of your chosen institutions-I'll give you my gun when you pry it from my cold, dead hands." I visibly shook the guy. It was the best.

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  • RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Has Trump even hinted at gun control of any flavour?

  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie Registered User regular
    Right well a bunch of people in my social media circle just lost it because a Fox News poll has Clinton leading by 10 points.

    The general consensus is it's the first time they've seen anything positive about any Clinton on Fox News ever.

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  • CrayonCrayon Sleeps in the wrong bed. TejasRegistered User regular
    Has Trump even hinted at gun control of any flavour?

    He really hasn't, but he sure has emboldened the right to hate us even more for purely cosmetic reasons.

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  • RichyRichy Registered User regular
    august wrote: »
    I'm wondering how close Trump will get to calling for Clinton to be assassinated before all this shit is over.

    How close? I'd bet hard currency he explicitly says something along the lines of "someone should just kill her".

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  • Wraith260Wraith260 Happiest Goomba! Registered User regular
    Has Trump even hinted at gun control of any flavour?

    but we only just started this one!!

  • Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    august wrote: »

    And let me ask, where was Hillary Clinton on 9-11? I don't know, but people -great people, I only work with the best- but they are saying that she couldn't be found. Maybe that means something, I don't know, but where was she?

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  • TaramoorTaramoor Registered User regular
    Richy wrote: »
    august wrote: »
    I'm wondering how close Trump will get to calling for Clinton to be assassinated before all this shit is over.

    How close? I'd bet hard currency he explicitly says something along the lines of "someone should just kill her".

    I'm assuming it will be more along the lines of "Well she better be careful" and "If she's coming for your guns you fine people are going to have to show her what the second amendment is really for."

    Ever since that first video with the guys chanting "Kill her!" I've thought about what Trump might do if his numbers start to slip.

  • Wraith260Wraith260 Happiest Goomba! Registered User regular
    august wrote: »

    And let me ask, where was Hillary Clinton on 9-11? I don't know, but people -great people, I only work with the best- but they are saying that she couldn't be found. Maybe that means something, I don't know, but where was she?

    oh god, please let him be dumb enough to try that line of attack.

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  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular

    Ah hmmm. On the one hand, I'm not keen on buying books from politicians during or near their run for office, just feels a bit slimy. On the other hand, my birthday is right around the release date.

    Campaign books aren't the most exciting reading material. Here's Obama's from 2008.

  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    Hakkekage wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Preacher wrote: »
    Holy Shit maybe he does have fucking brain problems

    Like this goes beyond simply not knowing shit, this goes into "Maybe he should be in a hospital undergoing treatment?"

    nah, that is absolutely not knowing shit.

    and also not caring that he doesn't know shit.

    I mean come on he already released a solid physician's note testifying to his fitness for office

    trump-doctor-2_custom-f01450ffb64dcf48651dcac21f2e500521b5ced9-s900-c85.jpg

    There's nothing about this unimpeachable assessment that is open to skepticism

    I love how this 70 year old wet fart is somehow the healthiest man ever, but somehow was not healthy enough to serve in Vietnam when he was considerably younger. Is he Benjamin Button or just an asshole?

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    Tenek wrote: »
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    You have to rely more on your neighbors and less on government programs.

    I'm under the impression that a lot of rural areas would be absolutely fucked without government programs. Medicaid, food stamps, farm subsidies... the military, in the case of "it gets me the hell out of here". Am I wrong? I understand the story you're telling and I guess people might believe it but is it actually true?

    Is it true? Not really, no. But there's that sense of "I need a ride into town and there's no bus so I'll ask my neighbor" and whatnot that makes it feel true.

    And in politics, that sort of truthiness is all that matters.

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This discussion has been closed.