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[Phalla] Fryhunt! Day 6 / GAME OVER

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Posts

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    If insane can randomly ping correct then we're probably screwed anyways as given the right situation we would spend the whole game following an insane person.

    If that's the case here with design, I'm not sure how much of a chance we stand.

    MrTLicious
  • chamberlainchamberlain regular Registered User regular
    edited October 2016
    Still no wolf death.

    chamberlain on
  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    What's the mamawolf MP connection?

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    edited October 2016
    JPants wrote: »
    Alright, reveal time I suppose. I was hoping at least one other person who hasn't revealed anything would do so but it's getting late enough in the day that I might as well.

    I am the one @Raiden333 is one way masoned with. At least I'm pretty sure... I suppose there could be another person out there with the same power and similar role name, but I really doubt it. I'm pretty sure the reason Raiden followed along with my Kilnaga vote was because he knew/was pretty sure I was village.

    So yeah, I can compare 2 people each night and find out if they are on the same team. I can't target myself, I can't target dead people, and I can't target anyone twice. So no chain targeting.

    So what have my results been?
    Magic Prime and GG - SAME team
    Auralynx and chamberlain - DIFFERENT teams
    Obifett and discrider - DIFFERENT teams

    So if MamaWolf is mafia, MP is village and the results above don't look incorrect. Meaning, JPants wouldn't be insane.

    AustinP0027 on
  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    Also, assuming 5 mafia left, the entire village has to vote the same today otherwise we aren't going to get a vote kill off (as 5 mafia can vote elsewhere and kill the majority)

  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Total Goober Registered User regular
    Hmm, so Obi vote?

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    I'd also be comfortable with that, again given I'll be able to verify the identity of anyone voted out today

  • Moridin889Moridin889 regular Registered User regular
    Also, assuming 5 mafia left, the entire village has to vote the same today otherwise we aren't going to get a vote kill off (as 5 mafia can vote elsewhere and kill the majority)

    And if we kill a villager the game is over.

    But I don't think there's that many mafia to start with. It's normally 5-6 for a 30 person game, right? And this is a smaller game and a game of even less information. We've potentially killed two

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    JPants wrote: »
    Alright, reveal time I suppose. I was hoping at least one other person who hasn't revealed anything would do so but it's getting late enough in the day that I might as well.

    I am the one @Raiden333 is one way masoned with. At least I'm pretty sure... I suppose there could be another person out there with the same power and similar role name, but I really doubt it. I'm pretty sure the reason Raiden followed along with my Kilnaga vote was because he knew/was pretty sure I was village.

    So yeah, I can compare 2 people each night and find out if they are on the same team. I can't target myself, I can't target dead people, and I can't target anyone twice. So no chain targeting.

    So what have my results been?
    Magic Prime and GG - SAME team
    Auralynx and chamberlain - DIFFERENT teams
    Obifett and discrider - DIFFERENT teams

    So if MamaWolf is mafia, MP is village and the results above don't look incorrect. Meaning, JPants wouldn't be insane.

    Mamawolf isn't mentioned here. Eli5

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    Also question re: your ability, Austin.

    Suppose you're putting in an order for night 5, what days/nights must have been all village deaths to get your kill off?

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    Alright, reveal time I suppose. I was hoping at least one other person who hasn't revealed anything would do so but it's getting late enough in the day that I might as well.

    I am the one @Raiden333 is one way masoned with. At least I'm pretty sure... I suppose there could be another person out there with the same power and similar role name, but I really doubt it. I'm pretty sure the reason Raiden followed along with my Kilnaga vote was because he knew/was pretty sure I was village.

    So yeah, I can compare 2 people each night and find out if they are on the same team. I can't target myself, I can't target dead people, and I can't target anyone twice. So no chain targeting.

    So what have my results been?
    Magic Prime and GG - SAME team
    Auralynx and chamberlain - DIFFERENT teams
    Obifett and discrider - DIFFERENT teams

    So if MamaWolf is mafia, MP is village and the results above don't look incorrect. Meaning, JPants wouldn't be insane.

    Mamawolf isn't mentioned here. Eli5

    JFP has stated only one Mafia is dead. You have stated that it's MamaWolf.

    If both are correct, then in JPants results MP and GG being on the same team is correct as they are both village.

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    Also question re: your ability, Austin.

    Suppose you're putting in an order for night 5, what days/nights must have been all village deaths to get your kill off?

    If I get to fire the kill night 5, then day 4,night 4, and day 5 didn't have Mafia kills.

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    edited October 2016
    MrTLicious wrote: »
    JPants wrote: »
    Alright, reveal time I suppose. I was hoping at least one other person who hasn't revealed anything would do so but it's getting late enough in the day that I might as well.

    I am the one @Raiden333 is one way masoned with. At least I'm pretty sure... I suppose there could be another person out there with the same power and similar role name, but I really doubt it. I'm pretty sure the reason Raiden followed along with my Kilnaga vote was because he knew/was pretty sure I was village.

    So yeah, I can compare 2 people each night and find out if they are on the same team. I can't target myself, I can't target dead people, and I can't target anyone twice. So no chain targeting.

    So what have my results been?
    Magic Prime and GG - SAME team
    Auralynx and chamberlain - DIFFERENT teams
    Obifett and discrider - DIFFERENT teams

    So if MamaWolf is mafia, MP is village and the results above don't look incorrect. Meaning, JPants wouldn't be insane.

    Mamawolf isn't mentioned here. Eli5

    JFP has stated only one Mafia is dead. You have stated that it's MamaWolf.

    If both are correct, then in JPants results MP and GG being on the same team is correct as they are both village.

    Wait, is @JusticeforPluto saying that still 1 scum in total is dead, or that an additional scum was dead last night?

    Edit: If it's the latter, then you don't get a kill either way.

    MrTLicious on
  • FryFry regular Registered User regular
    Official votal:

    38thdoe: AustinP0027, Brody

    Not voting:
    @MrTLicious
    @kime
    @38thdoe
    @Auralynx
    @ObiFett
    @premium
    @Raiden333
    @Moridin889
    @chamberlain
    @JusticeForPluto


    Approximately 12 hours remain in the day

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    OK, here's the deal since people seem to be responding slow and I may not be on this evening.

    I also got results on JPants, and he was sane and village.

    This means Obi is mafia. It also means that 38th is insane or mafia, and I'm almost positive that's he's sane (or we're fucked as Austin said). However, since that doubt remains, I think that means we need to vote out 38th and have Austin use his vig on Obi. I think this ordering is better whether 38th is mafia or not, because when Obi dies (and if he dies during the day we get no actual new information), then the next day we're going to go after 38th anyway.

    1: 38th is village: we kill him and Obi today, but figure out that 38th was village, and thus that insanity is some weird mindfuck, which comes with it's own issues.
    2: 38th is mafia: We vote him out, and get obi the next day

    Either of these scenarios is better than the corresponding scenario where we use two days of votes to kill obi and 38th.

    The only reason it wouldn't be beneficial is if we think that tomorrow there will be some extra piece of information that will not cause us to dogpile 38th and he's actually village.

    AustinP0027
  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    So yeah, 38th

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    This also all goes out the window if JfP actually meant that someone from yesterday was scum.

  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    I'm confused as to why voting me out is the optimal path?
    So as to not turn off Austin's vig because I'm village?



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  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    Obifett



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  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    I agree that Obi is more likely to be mafia than you, but since you are the clear #2, and that won't change tomorrow, it's better to use the vote on the #2 and the vig on the #1 than vice versa, because the vig can only be used if the vote fails.

  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    Because the good of the many outweighs the good of the few.

    "I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."

    The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
  • chamberlainchamberlain regular Registered User regular
    Why are we assuming the vote will fail?

  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    Fail to kill mafia is what he means.
    Brody wrote: »
    Because the good of the many outweighs the good of the few.

    I'm worried about the good of the many at this point, not the good of the few. It won't ruin my day to be out of the game, but like I said before, we are being pretty wasteful with our resources as village, I think its better to not vote villagers out.



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  • premiumpremium regular Registered User regular
    Why is 38thdoe definitely insane or mafia? What if MrT is insane instead?

  • BrodyBrody The Watch The First ShoreRegistered User regular
    The vote won't.

    If we vote out 38th, and he is Village (less likely), Austin can still shoot Obi.

    If we vote out 38th, and he is Maf (likely), Austin can not shoot Obi, but we still got a mafia.

    If we vote out Obi, and he is Maf (most likely), Austin can not shoot 38th.

    If we vote out Obi, and he is Village (least likely), Austin can still shoot 38th.

    "I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."

    The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    premium wrote: »
    Why is 38thdoe definitely insane or mafia? What if MrT is insane instead?

    The argument that 38th is sane:

    He got different results than GG on chamberlain. I saw GG as insane.

    He correctly seered discrider as sane (since discrider's ability went through as planned, confirmed by corvidae).

    If I were insane then everyone that I saw that died village would actually be mafia and the game would be over.

  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    My results have also agreed with JfP's.

  • 38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    We are still keeping in mind that sanity does not always mean that their ability doesn't work normally?



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  • premiumpremium regular Registered User regular
    38thDoe wrote: »
    We are still keeping in mind that sanity does not always mean that their ability doesn't work normally?

    Apparently not

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    It's out there, but if it's true and an insane person works sometimes and doesn't others, we're kind of screwed (especially when it comes to "seer" powers).

    Also, if JPants was insane, AND MrT was insane meaning we had only JFP's every other day count check, and my "did i get a kill" check, we would have been pretty much screwed from day 1.

    So, I'm choosing to put faith in Fry's design, and instead assume that all of our information hasn't been based on insane seers.

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    premium wrote: »
    Why is 38thdoe definitely insane or mafia? What if MrT is insane instead?

    Oh, to add to this.

    If 38th is village, but insane, then I still get a kill, and shoot Obi.

    Then we'll known end of day tomorrow if Obi was mafia, as if Obi was village, I'll have another kill at the end of the day.

    Though, in that scenario, we might be drawing in on game over anyways.

    Still, given all the information we have from JFP, MrT, and JPants, it sure points to us having found at least 1 more mafia, if not 2 here.

  • premiumpremium regular Registered User regular
    Brody wrote: »
    The vote won't.

    If we vote out 38th, and he is Village (less likely), Austin can still shoot Obi.

    If we vote out 38th, and he is Maf (likely), Austin can not shoot Obi, but we still got a mafia.

    If we vote out Obi, and he is Maf (most likely), Austin can not shoot 38th.

    If we vote out Obi, and he is Village (least likely), Austin can still shoot 38th.

    We are only getting 1 mafia tonight, in any scenario. You seem to agree that obifett is more likely to be mafia.
    Why are you so desperate to add the extra chance of hitting a villager?

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    38th's Death as mafia would confirm JPants's results, which then leads to an immediate Obi vote.

    Obi's death as village would tell us JPant's results were wrong, and we have no info to work from.

    Of the two scenarios, it's better to know for sure where 38th allegiance lies.

  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    I am so confused haha. So we all agree to kill 38th and Obi*, it's just a matter of which to vote and which to vig, is that right?

    *well obviously Obi and 38th probably don't agree :P

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  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    That is the conversation being had, yes.

    I don't know I'd say "all" given it's really just myself, MrT, and Brody so far.

    But, we kind of have to have full village alignment on this one to get the vote out, so it's pretty important to village success that if people don't agree with a 38th vote (obviously 38th won't), that they share why they disagree pretty quickly so we have time to discuss.

  • premiumpremium regular Registered User regular
    38th's Death as mafia would confirm JPants's results, which then leads to an immediate Obi vote.

    Obi's death as village would tell us JPant's results were wrong, and we have no info to work from.

    Of the two scenarios, it's better to know for sure where 38th allegiance lies.

    We still have 2 players who are telling us about dead people. We should be able to figure out allegiance from their results. Hell we (apparently) had no trouble figuring the last one!
    You are throwing an extra kill into the game when we may not have numbers to support it.

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    premium wrote: »
    38th's Death as mafia would confirm JPants's results, which then leads to an immediate Obi vote.

    Obi's death as village would tell us JPant's results were wrong, and we have no info to work from.

    Of the two scenarios, it's better to know for sure where 38th allegiance lies.

    We still have 2 players who are telling us about dead people. We should be able to figure out allegiance from their results. Hell we (apparently) had no trouble figuring the last one!
    You are throwing an extra kill into the game when we may not have numbers to support it.

    So what is your suggestion?

    If the vote flips to Obi, and he dies mafia. Where do we look next?

  • premiumpremium regular Registered User regular
    premium wrote: »
    38th's Death as mafia would confirm JPants's results, which then leads to an immediate Obi vote.

    Obi's death as village would tell us JPant's results were wrong, and we have no info to work from.

    Of the two scenarios, it's better to know for sure where 38th allegiance lies.

    We still have 2 players who are telling us about dead people. We should be able to figure out allegiance from their results. Hell we (apparently) had no trouble figuring the last one!
    You are throwing an extra kill into the game when we may not have numbers to support it.

    So what is your suggestion?

    If the vote flips to Obi, and he dies mafia. Where do we look next?

    If we get results from jfp and mrt then we follow the path they take us down.
    If we don't then we look again at 38th, if you don't kill him first, and also You, Brody and MrT, for pushing this silly plan.
    Im willing to grant that you might not be mafia though. Just the SK :p

  • AustinP0027AustinP0027 regular Registered User regular
    edited October 2016
    premium wrote: »
    If we get results from jfp and mrt then we follow the path they take us down.
    If we don't then we look again at 38th, if you don't kill him first, and also You, Brody and MrT, for pushing this silly plan.
    Im willing to grant that you might not be mafia though. Just the SK :p

    JFP won't get results again until Day after this one. So, next day we don't get anything from him.

    MrT hasn't really revealed his power, so I'm not sure the extent of how he can confirm to really speak to that at all.

    Edit: Also, if Obi dies mafia, all I'll be able to do is confirm he was mafia, as I wouldn't have a kill.

    So we'd go into the next day with knowing that Obi was mafia, and that's it. What info do we have to work with that wouldn't just be us pointing back to 38th?

    AustinP0027 on
  • MrTLiciousMrTLicious regular Registered User regular
    Let's follow this out:

    Village votes out Obi (Mafia), and mafia kill someone (village). You won't need the seer results to know that the non-vote hit a villager. Obi will come up mafia by virtue of Austin's kill not going off. The only new information you have is the mafia target. Obi dying red will confirm that JPants was sane. This means that 38th is wrong/lying about seeing him as insane. In order for that vote to go through, basically everyone will need to switch. There's also basically no one arguing that Obi isn't mafia, only that 38th also is.

    In this scenario, who could possibly die that would make your vote tomorrow be for anyone other than 38th?

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