If insane can randomly ping correct then we're probably screwed anyways as given the right situation we would spend the whole game following an insane person.
If that's the case here with design, I'm not sure how much of a chance we stand.
Alright, reveal time I suppose. I was hoping at least one other person who hasn't revealed anything would do so but it's getting late enough in the day that I might as well.
I am the one @Raiden333 is one way masoned with. At least I'm pretty sure... I suppose there could be another person out there with the same power and similar role name, but I really doubt it. I'm pretty sure the reason Raiden followed along with my Kilnaga vote was because he knew/was pretty sure I was village.
So yeah, I can compare 2 people each night and find out if they are on the same team. I can't target myself, I can't target dead people, and I can't target anyone twice. So no chain targeting.
So what have my results been?
Magic Prime and GG - SAME team
Auralynx and chamberlain - DIFFERENT teams
Obifett and discrider - DIFFERENT teams
So if MamaWolf is mafia, MP is village and the results above don't look incorrect. Meaning, JPants wouldn't be insane.
Also, assuming 5 mafia left, the entire village has to vote the same today otherwise we aren't going to get a vote kill off (as 5 mafia can vote elsewhere and kill the majority)
Also, assuming 5 mafia left, the entire village has to vote the same today otherwise we aren't going to get a vote kill off (as 5 mafia can vote elsewhere and kill the majority)
And if we kill a villager the game is over.
But I don't think there's that many mafia to start with. It's normally 5-6 for a 30 person game, right? And this is a smaller game and a game of even less information. We've potentially killed two
Alright, reveal time I suppose. I was hoping at least one other person who hasn't revealed anything would do so but it's getting late enough in the day that I might as well.
I am the one @Raiden333 is one way masoned with. At least I'm pretty sure... I suppose there could be another person out there with the same power and similar role name, but I really doubt it. I'm pretty sure the reason Raiden followed along with my Kilnaga vote was because he knew/was pretty sure I was village.
So yeah, I can compare 2 people each night and find out if they are on the same team. I can't target myself, I can't target dead people, and I can't target anyone twice. So no chain targeting.
So what have my results been?
Magic Prime and GG - SAME team
Auralynx and chamberlain - DIFFERENT teams
Obifett and discrider - DIFFERENT teams
So if MamaWolf is mafia, MP is village and the results above don't look incorrect. Meaning, JPants wouldn't be insane.
Alright, reveal time I suppose. I was hoping at least one other person who hasn't revealed anything would do so but it's getting late enough in the day that I might as well.
I am the one @Raiden333 is one way masoned with. At least I'm pretty sure... I suppose there could be another person out there with the same power and similar role name, but I really doubt it. I'm pretty sure the reason Raiden followed along with my Kilnaga vote was because he knew/was pretty sure I was village.
So yeah, I can compare 2 people each night and find out if they are on the same team. I can't target myself, I can't target dead people, and I can't target anyone twice. So no chain targeting.
So what have my results been?
Magic Prime and GG - SAME team
Auralynx and chamberlain - DIFFERENT teams
Obifett and discrider - DIFFERENT teams
So if MamaWolf is mafia, MP is village and the results above don't look incorrect. Meaning, JPants wouldn't be insane.
Mamawolf isn't mentioned here. Eli5
JFP has stated only one Mafia is dead. You have stated that it's MamaWolf.
If both are correct, then in JPants results MP and GG being on the same team is correct as they are both village.
Alright, reveal time I suppose. I was hoping at least one other person who hasn't revealed anything would do so but it's getting late enough in the day that I might as well.
I am the one @Raiden333 is one way masoned with. At least I'm pretty sure... I suppose there could be another person out there with the same power and similar role name, but I really doubt it. I'm pretty sure the reason Raiden followed along with my Kilnaga vote was because he knew/was pretty sure I was village.
So yeah, I can compare 2 people each night and find out if they are on the same team. I can't target myself, I can't target dead people, and I can't target anyone twice. So no chain targeting.
So what have my results been?
Magic Prime and GG - SAME team
Auralynx and chamberlain - DIFFERENT teams
Obifett and discrider - DIFFERENT teams
So if MamaWolf is mafia, MP is village and the results above don't look incorrect. Meaning, JPants wouldn't be insane.
Mamawolf isn't mentioned here. Eli5
JFP has stated only one Mafia is dead. You have stated that it's MamaWolf.
If both are correct, then in JPants results MP and GG being on the same team is correct as they are both village.
Wait, is @JusticeforPluto saying that still 1 scum in total is dead, or that an additional scum was dead last night?
Edit: If it's the latter, then you don't get a kill either way.
OK, here's the deal since people seem to be responding slow and I may not be on this evening.
I also got results on JPants, and he was sane and village.
This means Obi is mafia. It also means that 38th is insane or mafia, and I'm almost positive that's he's sane (or we're fucked as Austin said). However, since that doubt remains, I think that means we need to vote out 38th and have Austin use his vig on Obi. I think this ordering is better whether 38th is mafia or not, because when Obi dies (and if he dies during the day we get no actual new information), then the next day we're going to go after 38th anyway.
1: 38th is village: we kill him and Obi today, but figure out that 38th was village, and thus that insanity is some weird mindfuck, which comes with it's own issues.
2: 38th is mafia: We vote him out, and get obi the next day
Either of these scenarios is better than the corresponding scenario where we use two days of votes to kill obi and 38th.
The only reason it wouldn't be beneficial is if we think that tomorrow there will be some extra piece of information that will not cause us to dogpile 38th and he's actually village.
I agree that Obi is more likely to be mafia than you, but since you are the clear #2, and that won't change tomorrow, it's better to use the vote on the #2 and the vig on the #1 than vice versa, because the vig can only be used if the vote fails.
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BrodyThe WatchThe First ShoreRegistered Userregular
Because the good of the many outweighs the good of the few.
"I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."
Because the good of the many outweighs the good of the few.
I'm worried about the good of the many at this point, not the good of the few. It won't ruin my day to be out of the game, but like I said before, we are being pretty wasteful with our resources as village, I think its better to not vote villagers out.
It's out there, but if it's true and an insane person works sometimes and doesn't others, we're kind of screwed (especially when it comes to "seer" powers).
Also, if JPants was insane, AND MrT was insane meaning we had only JFP's every other day count check, and my "did i get a kill" check, we would have been pretty much screwed from day 1.
So, I'm choosing to put faith in Fry's design, and instead assume that all of our information hasn't been based on insane seers.
If we vote out 38th, and he is Village (less likely), Austin can still shoot Obi.
If we vote out 38th, and he is Maf (likely), Austin can not shoot Obi, but we still got a mafia.
If we vote out Obi, and he is Maf (most likely), Austin can not shoot 38th.
If we vote out Obi, and he is Village (least likely), Austin can still shoot 38th.
We are only getting 1 mafia tonight, in any scenario. You seem to agree that obifett is more likely to be mafia.
Why are you so desperate to add the extra chance of hitting a villager?
I don't know I'd say "all" given it's really just myself, MrT, and Brody so far.
But, we kind of have to have full village alignment on this one to get the vote out, so it's pretty important to village success that if people don't agree with a 38th vote (obviously 38th won't), that they share why they disagree pretty quickly so we have time to discuss.
38th's Death as mafia would confirm JPants's results, which then leads to an immediate Obi vote.
Obi's death as village would tell us JPant's results were wrong, and we have no info to work from.
Of the two scenarios, it's better to know for sure where 38th allegiance lies.
We still have 2 players who are telling us about dead people. We should be able to figure out allegiance from their results. Hell we (apparently) had no trouble figuring the last one!
You are throwing an extra kill into the game when we may not have numbers to support it.
38th's Death as mafia would confirm JPants's results, which then leads to an immediate Obi vote.
Obi's death as village would tell us JPant's results were wrong, and we have no info to work from.
Of the two scenarios, it's better to know for sure where 38th allegiance lies.
We still have 2 players who are telling us about dead people. We should be able to figure out allegiance from their results. Hell we (apparently) had no trouble figuring the last one!
You are throwing an extra kill into the game when we may not have numbers to support it.
So what is your suggestion?
If the vote flips to Obi, and he dies mafia. Where do we look next?
38th's Death as mafia would confirm JPants's results, which then leads to an immediate Obi vote.
Obi's death as village would tell us JPant's results were wrong, and we have no info to work from.
Of the two scenarios, it's better to know for sure where 38th allegiance lies.
We still have 2 players who are telling us about dead people. We should be able to figure out allegiance from their results. Hell we (apparently) had no trouble figuring the last one!
You are throwing an extra kill into the game when we may not have numbers to support it.
So what is your suggestion?
If the vote flips to Obi, and he dies mafia. Where do we look next?
If we get results from jfp and mrt then we follow the path they take us down.
If we don't then we look again at 38th, if you don't kill him first, and also You, Brody and MrT, for pushing this silly plan.
Im willing to grant that you might not be mafia though. Just the SK
If we get results from jfp and mrt then we follow the path they take us down.
If we don't then we look again at 38th, if you don't kill him first, and also You, Brody and MrT, for pushing this silly plan.
Im willing to grant that you might not be mafia though. Just the SK
JFP won't get results again until Day after this one. So, next day we don't get anything from him.
MrT hasn't really revealed his power, so I'm not sure the extent of how he can confirm to really speak to that at all.
Edit: Also, if Obi dies mafia, all I'll be able to do is confirm he was mafia, as I wouldn't have a kill.
So we'd go into the next day with knowing that Obi was mafia, and that's it. What info do we have to work with that wouldn't just be us pointing back to 38th?
Village votes out Obi (Mafia), and mafia kill someone (village). You won't need the seer results to know that the non-vote hit a villager. Obi will come up mafia by virtue of Austin's kill not going off. The only new information you have is the mafia target. Obi dying red will confirm that JPants was sane. This means that 38th is wrong/lying about seeing him as insane. In order for that vote to go through, basically everyone will need to switch. There's also basically no one arguing that Obi isn't mafia, only that 38th also is.
In this scenario, who could possibly die that would make your vote tomorrow be for anyone other than 38th?
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If that's the case here with design, I'm not sure how much of a chance we stand.
So if MamaWolf is mafia, MP is village and the results above don't look incorrect. Meaning, JPants wouldn't be insane.
And if we kill a villager the game is over.
But I don't think there's that many mafia to start with. It's normally 5-6 for a 30 person game, right? And this is a smaller game and a game of even less information. We've potentially killed two
Mamawolf isn't mentioned here. Eli5
Suppose you're putting in an order for night 5, what days/nights must have been all village deaths to get your kill off?
JFP has stated only one Mafia is dead. You have stated that it's MamaWolf.
If both are correct, then in JPants results MP and GG being on the same team is correct as they are both village.
If I get to fire the kill night 5, then day 4,night 4, and day 5 didn't have Mafia kills.
Wait, is @JusticeforPluto saying that still 1 scum in total is dead, or that an additional scum was dead last night?
Edit: If it's the latter, then you don't get a kill either way.
38thdoe: AustinP0027, Brody
Not voting:
@MrTLicious
@kime
@38thdoe
@Auralynx
@ObiFett
@premium
@Raiden333
@Moridin889
@chamberlain
@JusticeForPluto
Approximately 12 hours remain in the day
I also got results on JPants, and he was sane and village.
This means Obi is mafia. It also means that 38th is insane or mafia, and I'm almost positive that's he's sane (or we're fucked as Austin said). However, since that doubt remains, I think that means we need to vote out 38th and have Austin use his vig on Obi. I think this ordering is better whether 38th is mafia or not, because when Obi dies (and if he dies during the day we get no actual new information), then the next day we're going to go after 38th anyway.
1: 38th is village: we kill him and Obi today, but figure out that 38th was village, and thus that insanity is some weird mindfuck, which comes with it's own issues.
2: 38th is mafia: We vote him out, and get obi the next day
Either of these scenarios is better than the corresponding scenario where we use two days of votes to kill obi and 38th.
The only reason it wouldn't be beneficial is if we think that tomorrow there will be some extra piece of information that will not cause us to dogpile 38th and he's actually village.
So as to not turn off Austin's vig because I'm village?
The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
Steam: Korvalain
I'm worried about the good of the many at this point, not the good of the few. It won't ruin my day to be out of the game, but like I said before, we are being pretty wasteful with our resources as village, I think its better to not vote villagers out.
3DS: 1289-8447-4695
If we vote out 38th, and he is Village (less likely), Austin can still shoot Obi.
If we vote out 38th, and he is Maf (likely), Austin can not shoot Obi, but we still got a mafia.
If we vote out Obi, and he is Maf (most likely), Austin can not shoot 38th.
If we vote out Obi, and he is Village (least likely), Austin can still shoot 38th.
The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
Steam: Korvalain
The argument that 38th is sane:
He got different results than GG on chamberlain. I saw GG as insane.
He correctly seered discrider as sane (since discrider's ability went through as planned, confirmed by corvidae).
If I were insane then everyone that I saw that died village would actually be mafia and the game would be over.
Apparently not
3DS: 1289-8447-4695
Also, if JPants was insane, AND MrT was insane meaning we had only JFP's every other day count check, and my "did i get a kill" check, we would have been pretty much screwed from day 1.
So, I'm choosing to put faith in Fry's design, and instead assume that all of our information hasn't been based on insane seers.
Oh, to add to this.
If 38th is village, but insane, then I still get a kill, and shoot Obi.
Then we'll known end of day tomorrow if Obi was mafia, as if Obi was village, I'll have another kill at the end of the day.
Though, in that scenario, we might be drawing in on game over anyways.
Still, given all the information we have from JFP, MrT, and JPants, it sure points to us having found at least 1 more mafia, if not 2 here.
We are only getting 1 mafia tonight, in any scenario. You seem to agree that obifett is more likely to be mafia.
Why are you so desperate to add the extra chance of hitting a villager?
3DS: 1289-8447-4695
Obi's death as village would tell us JPant's results were wrong, and we have no info to work from.
Of the two scenarios, it's better to know for sure where 38th allegiance lies.
*well obviously Obi and 38th probably don't agree :P
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
I don't know I'd say "all" given it's really just myself, MrT, and Brody so far.
But, we kind of have to have full village alignment on this one to get the vote out, so it's pretty important to village success that if people don't agree with a 38th vote (obviously 38th won't), that they share why they disagree pretty quickly so we have time to discuss.
We still have 2 players who are telling us about dead people. We should be able to figure out allegiance from their results. Hell we (apparently) had no trouble figuring the last one!
You are throwing an extra kill into the game when we may not have numbers to support it.
3DS: 1289-8447-4695
So what is your suggestion?
If the vote flips to Obi, and he dies mafia. Where do we look next?
If we get results from jfp and mrt then we follow the path they take us down.
If we don't then we look again at 38th, if you don't kill him first, and also You, Brody and MrT, for pushing this silly plan.
Im willing to grant that you might not be mafia though. Just the SK
3DS: 1289-8447-4695
JFP won't get results again until Day after this one. So, next day we don't get anything from him.
MrT hasn't really revealed his power, so I'm not sure the extent of how he can confirm to really speak to that at all.
Edit: Also, if Obi dies mafia, all I'll be able to do is confirm he was mafia, as I wouldn't have a kill.
So we'd go into the next day with knowing that Obi was mafia, and that's it. What info do we have to work with that wouldn't just be us pointing back to 38th?
Village votes out Obi (Mafia), and mafia kill someone (village). You won't need the seer results to know that the non-vote hit a villager. Obi will come up mafia by virtue of Austin's kill not going off. The only new information you have is the mafia target. Obi dying red will confirm that JPants was sane. This means that 38th is wrong/lying about seeing him as insane. In order for that vote to go through, basically everyone will need to switch. There's also basically no one arguing that Obi isn't mafia, only that 38th also is.
In this scenario, who could possibly die that would make your vote tomorrow be for anyone other than 38th?