I sometimes forget Trudeau is manning the ramparts north of here, I'm glad someone like him is.
PS he is the real secret lover of Macron, hth
One of the little things that I love about Trudeau is how he tweets in English and French.
Imagine if the US President did the same with English and Spanish,
Do keep in mind it's a requirement for any government office in Canada. We have two official languages - English and French - and being able to speak both languages fluently is a requirement of political leadership. We even do multiple debates in both languages during elections.
Also, if you screw up in either language, the electorate will be out for blood. Being confidently fluent is key.
The Macron > Le Pen - Le Pen > Macron people must the most special of all. Lots of abstentions, obviously.
I wonder if the number of absentees would hold if you switch candidates around.
I guess the interesting thing jumping out to me is the difference between Hamon and Melenchon's voters in round 2. Melenchon's voters are a lot more volatile it seems. At least part of it (I'd suspect a large part personally) is probably because Melenchon is the one with way more voters and so swept up a lot more random groups.
Trump is probably sad because none of his "look at how much I won by!" brags work against the guy who won nearly every commune in France and by more than 20% more than his opponent.
OMG if he brings maps of his electoral dominance to his first meeting with Trump...
The Macron > Le Pen - Le Pen > Macron people must the most special of all. Lots of abstentions, obviously.
I wonder if the number of absentees would hold if you switch candidates around.
I guess the interesting thing jumping out to me is the difference between Hamon and Melenchon's voters in round 2. Melenchon's voters are a lot more volatile it seems. At least part of it (I'd suspect a large part personally) is probably because Melenchon is the one with way more voters and so swept up a lot more random groups.
I hate making crude references to world politics through a US centric prism, but you could say they are the Bernie primary voters swinging wildly from him to either Gary Johnson or Trump come the general (granted I have no idea how statistically significant that would be compared to the more logical Bernie-> Stein progression which I have too much anecdotal experience with unfortunately).
For party politics junkies, with Macron's victory, it'll be interesting to see what becomes of his governments relationship with the ruling Polish PiS, or Franco-Polish relations in general. A week ago, Warsaw slammed Macron for the comparison and perceived alignment with United Russia and Le Pen's candidacy--the Duda government is (arguably very correctly) described extensive in the press as right-wing, and has been often accused of voter intimidating, and its detractors widely claim its waging a war against the free press in Poland (and perhaps even winning). On the other hand, you could call it barely Euroskeptic (if at all) unlike Le Pen, given it's advocacy for commercial ties with western Europe, and it's overwhelmingly pro-NATO (which is a European organization in no small part), so one can see why they'd resent the insinuation.
Will be interesting to see if they bury that hatchet, or if this becomes a sore point between the incoming government under Macron and the PiS's government. Personally I don't think PiS is going anywhere, even if substantial demonstrations against them in the major cities, so both sides may need to make nice and put that spat aside.
Regarding the Spiegel graphic, I do wonder if it's just a margin of error thing (because it's only a tiny sliver, but it's still there), or if there were actually people who legitimately changed from Macron to LePen, and LePen to Macron. And what their reasons were.
I mean, flipping between the two before an election, I can understand. But making the effort to vote in Round 1, and then choosing to go in literally the opposite direction in Round 2, would either require something significant to have happened, or some people just like to be contrary/troll.
Regarding the Spiegel graphic, I do wonder if it's just a margin of error thing (because it's only a tiny sliver, but it's still there), or if there were actually people who legitimately changed from Macron to LePen, and LePen to Macron. And what their reasons were.
I mean, flipping between the two before an election, I can understand. But making the effort to vote in Round 1, and then choosing to go in literally the opposite direction in Round 2, would either require something significant to have happened, or some people just like to be contrary/troll.
More from the Financial Times. They found that higher income correlated with support for Macron, but the effect disappeared when controlling for education level, which is the driver against Le Pen and FN.
Considering how Macron--a former socialist--advocated fucking over the working classes in his own charming way, that chart dispersion doesn't surprise me (with and without factoring education).
NOTE: Not an endorsement of Le Pen, but a criticism of Macron.
The Macron > Le Pen - Le Pen > Macron people must the most special of all. Lots of abstentions, obviously.
I wonder if the number of absentees would hold if you switch candidates around.
I think this is another nail in the coffin for the "the appeal of racist right wing populism sweeping the developed world is the populism" case. The more xenophobic a candidate was in round 1 (Fillon being #2) the more likely they voted for LePen, but the case can't be made for how populist a candidate was.
AbsalonLands of Always WinterRegistered Userregular
edited May 2017
Instead of being mad at Macron for not wanting to try what Hollande already tried and failed with all over again, progressives and socialists should be wanting to smack Hamon across the face for refusing to drop out and endorse Mélenchon. Talk about spiting leftist causes and abetting fascists in general because you don't approve of the upstart taking your crown. You're not getting the crown back. Read the writing on the wall.
The Macron > Le Pen - Le Pen > Macron people must the most special of all. Lots of abstentions, obviously.
I wonder if the number of absentees would hold if you switch candidates around.
I think this is another nail in the coffin for the "the appeal of racist right wing populism sweeping the developed world is the populism" case. The more xenophobic a candidate was in round 1 (Fillon being #2) the more likely they voted for LePen, but the case can't be made for how populist a candidate was.
They're still referring to LePen as populist even when she only got 1/3rd of popular support. Populism without popularity is just demagoguey, but it's impolite to say that out loud.
Instead of being mad at Macron for not wanting to try what Hollande already tried and failed with all over again, progressives and socialists should be wanting to smack Hamon across the face for refusing to drop out and endorse Mélenchon. Talk about spiting leftist causes and abetting fascists in general because you don't approve of the upstart taking your crown. You're not getting the crown back. Read the writing on the wall.
Hamon tried, and failed, to form a unity left campaign with Melenchon, and told what little of a base he had to throw their lot in with Macron after the first round as the data conclusively proves (also while not a capitalist is closer to Macron on most other issues).
Melenchon refused to do such a campaign (even though many on the French Left wanted such an effort) and Melenchon waffled about telling his base to vote for Macron.
If there was a Socialist acting out of spite for not being able to "get the crown back" it's Republican-lite islamophobe Manuel Valls who promptly ditched campaigning for the PS once primary voters told him (for a second time!) to go pound sand.
This was the big one, though. France trying to leave the EU would be disastrous.
Granted, but any country falling to far-right ethnic nationalism is shitty. Don't need anyone else going the way of Poland, Hungary, or Greece.
Greece's government is left-wing and their people refused Grexit in a referendum (well, abandoning the Euro, which would have basically led to Grexit). The Golden Dawn party, the Greek Nazis, were pretty thoroughly crushed after some gains earlier this decade. Haven't been a factor in years.
This was the big one, though. France trying to leave the EU would be disastrous.
Granted, but any country falling to far-right ethnic nationalism is shitty. Don't need anyone else going the way of Poland, Hungary, or Greece.
Greece's government is left-wing and their people refused Grexit in a referendum (well, abandoning the Euro, which would have basically led to Grexit). The Golden Dawn party, the Greek Nazis, were pretty thoroughly crushed after some gains earlier this decade. Haven't been a factor in years.
They've been attacking refugee camps in the country since Trump came to power.
There's something pure, something archetypal, about the Sweden Democrats. Somber suits, meticulously combed hair, chasing racial minorities down the street brandishing iron pipes.
This was the big one, though. France trying to leave the EU would be disastrous.
Granted, but any country falling to far-right ethnic nationalism is shitty. Don't need anyone else going the way of Poland, Hungary, or Greece.
Greece's government is left-wing and their people refused Grexit in a referendum (well, abandoning the Euro, which would have basically led to Grexit). The Golden Dawn party, the Greek Nazis, were pretty thoroughly crushed after some gains earlier this decade. Haven't been a factor in years.
And Poland's entire government effectively died in 2010 and had to be reconstituted.
This was the big one, though. France trying to leave the EU would be disastrous.
Granted, but any country falling to far-right ethnic nationalism is shitty. Don't need anyone else going the way of Poland, Hungary, or Greece.
Greece's government is left-wing and their people refused Grexit in a referendum (well, abandoning the Euro, which would have basically led to Grexit). The Golden Dawn party, the Greek Nazis, were pretty thoroughly crushed after some gains earlier this decade. Haven't been a factor in years.
I'm pretty sure the Greeks voted overwhelmingly against the EU's bailout conditions (which in effect means they voted to leave the Euro), then their government ignored them and accepted the troika's demands anyway.
Unless you're talking about a different referendum that I'm unfamiliar with.
En Marche's response: "Yeah... um ok sure, you need to register by today though (please don't though nobody really wants you around anymore)." Would be interesting if forgetting to cross t's and dot I's in preference for grandstanding ends his political career for the time being.
The failed effort by Russian attackers to influence the outcome of the French presidential campaign in its final hours was in part a forced error, thanks to an active defense by the digital team of French president-elect Emmanuel Macron's campaign organization, the digital director of the campaign has claimed. Campaign team members told the New York Times that as the phishing attacks mounted, they created a collection of fake e-mail accounts seeded with false information.
"We created false accounts, with false content, as traps," Macron campaign digital director Mounir Mahjoubi told the Times. "We did this massively, to create the obligation for them to verify, to determine whether it was a real account."
Wikileaks then disseminated easily disproven documents from the hackers, and tried to refute the proof of Russian hacking.
Multiple documents were proven to be forgeries, including one which appeared to be an invoice for a Bitcoin payment for mephedrone ("bath salts") to be sent to the French National Assembly. The Bitcoin wallet and blockchain transaction data was easily determined to be fake.
WikiLeaks, which initially spread links to the documents posted by the attackers, responded to Ars' previous coverage of the hack by tweeting, "It is unlikely that it could have been a mistake. Mostly likely it is a false flag or deliberate Russian signaling."
Germany doesn't want to completly buck the right wing trend and the center left suffered another -this time rather crushing- defeat in the state elections. MerkeL is the big winner with the the far right AFD and classical liberal FDB making large gains. Looks increasingly like a sure thing for Merkel.
Germany doesn't want to completly buck the right wing trend and the center left suffered another -this time rather crushing- defeat in the state elections. MerkeL is the big winner with the the far right AFD and classical liberal FDB making large gains. Looks increasingly like a sure thing for Merkel.
Posts
One of the little things that I love about Trudeau is how he tweets in English and French.
Imagine if the US President did the same with English and Spanish,
The Macron > Le Pen - Le Pen > Macron people must the most special of all. Lots of abstentions, obviously.
I wonder if the number of absentees would hold if you switch candidates around.
Do keep in mind it's a requirement for any government office in Canada. We have two official languages - English and French - and being able to speak both languages fluently is a requirement of political leadership. We even do multiple debates in both languages during elections.
Also, if you screw up in either language, the electorate will be out for blood. Being confidently fluent is key.
3DS Friend Code: 0216-0898-6512
Switch Friend Code: SW-7437-1538-7786
Also, why am I not surprised that ~1/2 of Fillion's base are just as reprehensible as he is, also still shaking my head at the Melenchon camp.
I guess the interesting thing jumping out to me is the difference between Hamon and Melenchon's voters in round 2. Melenchon's voters are a lot more volatile it seems. At least part of it (I'd suspect a large part personally) is probably because Melenchon is the one with way more voters and so swept up a lot more random groups.
OMG if he brings maps of his electoral dominance to his first meeting with Trump...
I hate making crude references to world politics through a US centric prism, but you could say they are the Bernie primary voters swinging wildly from him to either Gary Johnson or Trump come the general (granted I have no idea how statistically significant that would be compared to the more logical Bernie-> Stein progression which I have too much anecdotal experience with unfortunately).
Will be interesting to see if they bury that hatchet, or if this becomes a sore point between the incoming government under Macron and the PiS's government. Personally I don't think PiS is going anywhere, even if substantial demonstrations against them in the major cities, so both sides may need to make nice and put that spat aside.
I mean, flipping between the two before an election, I can understand. But making the effort to vote in Round 1, and then choosing to go in literally the opposite direction in Round 2, would either require something significant to have happened, or some people just like to be contrary/troll.
Or they pick at random.
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
PSN: AbEntropy
Kinder than calling them "goldfish memory" voters.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
NOTE: Not an endorsement of Le Pen, but a criticism of Macron.
Kinder to the voters or the goldfish?
Name-calling aside, there's a specific term in English for that kind of issue voter, I just don't recall what it is.
The Dutch fought them off too tbf.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
I think this is another nail in the coffin for the "the appeal of racist right wing populism sweeping the developed world is the populism" case. The more xenophobic a candidate was in round 1 (Fillon being #2) the more likely they voted for LePen, but the case can't be made for how populist a candidate was.
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
They're still referring to LePen as populist even when she only got 1/3rd of popular support. Populism without popularity is just demagoguey, but it's impolite to say that out loud.
Hamon tried, and failed, to form a unity left campaign with Melenchon, and told what little of a base he had to throw their lot in with Macron after the first round as the data conclusively proves (also while not a capitalist is closer to Macron on most other issues).
Melenchon refused to do such a campaign (even though many on the French Left wanted such an effort) and Melenchon waffled about telling his base to vote for Macron.
If there was a Socialist acting out of spite for not being able to "get the crown back" it's Republican-lite islamophobe Manuel Valls who promptly ditched campaigning for the PS once primary voters told him (for a second time!) to go pound sand.
Heh. The difference in competence is striking.
Which also cheered me about France. One time could be a fluke. You can't even begin to hope/fear there's a pattern until a second event happens.
Now we just have to do this whole song and dance again next year when Sweden has their elections.
Steam: pazython
Granted, but any country falling to far-right ethnic nationalism is shitty. Don't need anyone else going the way of Poland, Hungary, or Greece.
Steam: pazython
Greece's government is left-wing and their people refused Grexit in a referendum (well, abandoning the Euro, which would have basically led to Grexit). The Golden Dawn party, the Greek Nazis, were pretty thoroughly crushed after some gains earlier this decade. Haven't been a factor in years.
They've been attacking refugee camps in the country since Trump came to power.
And Poland's entire government effectively died in 2010 and had to be reconstituted.
Unless you're talking about a different referendum that I'm unfamiliar with.
En Marche's response: "Yeah... um ok sure, you need to register by today though (please don't though nobody really wants you around anymore)." Would be interesting if forgetting to cross t's and dot I's in preference for grandstanding ends his political career for the time being.
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-far-right-american-nationalist-who-tweeted-macronleaks
Fantastic...
Just, great.
https://arstechnica.com/security/2017/05/macron-campaign-team-used-honeypot-accounts-to-fake-out-fancy-bear/
Wikileaks then disseminated easily disproven documents from the hackers, and tried to refute the proof of Russian hacking.
bbc.com/news/world-europe-39914333
Well thank god for that.