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Twilight Imperium 4e - Game 2 - Round 7: Game Over!

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Posts

  • KetarKetar My autocomplete is a tad agressive today.Registered User regular
    No changes here.

  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    No

    Choose mecatol rex system

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    @Lykouragh has first vote, and should specify number of votes used.
    If all votes are attributed to Muuat, I will be usingall my votes for Muuat as well, and the agenda should resolve for Muuat.

    Steam Community page: http://steamcommunity.com/id/discrider/
    Oh hey! A knife!
  • MrBlarneyMrBlarney Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    Round 3: Start of Strategy Phase

    First Agenda
    The top card of the Agenda deck is drawn: "Research Team: Warfare".
    Winnu performs a transaction, giving 1 Commodity to L1z1x. (Winnu C 1 --> 0; L1z1x TG 6 --> 7)
    N'orr plays Action Card "Construction Rider", predicting the agenda outcome on Sakulag. (AC 4 --> 3)
    Vote results: Meer - 16 votes (Winnu); no other votes cast.
    The Research Team card is attached to Meer.
    Second Agenda
    The top card of the Agenda deck is drawn: "Archived Secret".
    Muaat plays Action Card "Assassinate Representative", preventing Hacan from voting. (AC 4 --> 3)
    Winnu plays Action Card "Diplomacy Rider", predicting the agenda outcome on Muaat. (AC 4 --> 3)
    Vote results: Muaat - 19 votes (Naalu, Muaat); no other votes cast.
    Muaat draws a Secret Objective card. (1 --> 2 in hand)
    Winnu chooses each other player to place a command token from their reserves into the Mecatol Rex system.

    Current Map: Round 3, Start of Strategy Phase

    Current Technologies

    Victory Points and Objectives
    The Naalu Collective - 3 VP
    The Winnu - 1 VP
    The Embers of Muaat - 1 VP
    Sardakk N'orr - 1 VP
    The L1z1x Mindnet - 0 VP
    The Emirates of Hacan - 0 VP

    Public Objectives
    Lead from the Front (1 VP): Spend a total of 3 tokens from your Tactic and/or Strategy pools.: Naalu
    Negotiate Trade Routes (1 VP): Spend 5 Trade Goods.: Naalu, Muaat, N'orr
    Sway the Council (1 VP): Spend 8 influence.
    Diversify Research (1 VP): Own 2 technologies in each of 2 colors.
    1 Stage I Objective and 5 Stage II Objectives have not yet been revealed.

    Secret Objectives
    The Embers of Muaat: 2 Secret Objectives in hand.
    The L1z1x Mindnet: 1 Secret Objective in hand.
    The Winnu: 1 Secret Objective in hand.
    The Emirates of Hacan: 1 Secret Objective in hand.
    The Naalu Collective: Threaten Enemies (Status Phase, 1 VP): Have one or more ships in a system that is adjacent to another player's home system.
    1 Secret Objective in hand.
    Sardakk N'orr: 1 Secret Objective in hand.

    Special Objectives
    Custodians of Mecatol Rex: Claimed by Winnu

    The Embers of Muaat (discrider)
    Commodities: 0 / 4
    Trade Goods: 0
    Action Cards: 3

    Tactic Pool: 3
    Fleet Pool: 4
    Strategy Pool: 2

    Promissory Notes: Hacan's Trade Agreement (Trade Agreement, Political Secret, Support for the Throne, Fires of the Gashlai)
    Technology: Plasma Scoring, Sarween Tools

    Worlds:
    R - Muaat (4R, 1I)
    R - Bereg (Hazardous, 3R, 1I)
    R - Dal Bootha (Cultural, 0R, 2I)
    R - Lirta IV (Hazardous, 2R, 3I)
    R - Saudor (Industrial, 2R, 2I)
    R - Tar'mann (Industrial, 1R, 1I, G)
    R - Xxehan (Cultural, 1R, 1I)

    Other Racial Data:
    - Racial Unit: Prototype War Sun (War Sun): As War Sun, but Movement 1.
    - Flagship: The Inferno: Combat Value 5 (x2), Movement 1, Carry Capacity 3. Sustain Damage. Action: Spend 1 token from your Strategy pool to place 1 Cruiser in this unit's system.
    - Racial Promissory Note: Fires of the Gashlai: Action: Remove 1 token from the Muaat player's Fleet pool and return it to his reinforcements. Then, gain your War Sun upgrade technology card. Then, return this card to the Muaat player.
    - Racial Technology: Magmus Reactor (Red, requires 2 Red): Your ships may move into supernovas. After 1 or more of your units use Production in a system that either contains a War Sun or is adjacent to a supernova, gain 1 Trade Good.
    - Racial Technology: Prototype War Sun II (unit upgrade, requires 3 Red and 1 Yellow): As War Sun, but Cost 10, Movement 3.
    - Star Forge: Action: Spend 1 token from your Strategy pool to place either 2 Fighters or 1 Destroyer from your reinforcements in a system that contains 1 or more of your War Suns.
    - Gashlai Physiology: Your ships can move through Supernovas.

    The L1z1x Mindnet SPEAKER (Ketar)
    Commodities: 0 / 2
    Trade Goods: 7
    Action Cards: 6

    Tactic Pool: 2
    Fleet Pool: 3
    Strategy Pool: 1

    Promissory Notes: Muaat's Ceasefire (Ceasefire, Trade Agreement, Political Secret, Support for the Throne, Cybernetic Enhancements)
    Technology: Neural Motivator, Plasma Scoring, Sarween Tools, Inheritance Systems

    Worlds:
    R - [0.0.0] (5R, 0I)
    R - Arnor (Industrial, 2R, 1I)
    R - Lazar (Industrial, 1R, 0I, Y)
    R - Lor (Industrial, 1R, 2I)
    R - Sakulag (Hazardous, 2R, 1I)

    Other Racial Data:
    - Racial Unit: Super-Dreadnought (Dreadnought): As Dreadnought, but Carry Capacity 2.
    - Flagship: [0.0.1]: Combat Value 5 (x2), Movement 1, Carry Capacity 5. Sustain Damage. During a Space Combat, hist produced by this ship and by your Dreadnoughts in this system must be assigned to non-Fighter ships if able.
    - Racial Promissory Note: Cybernetic Enhancements: At the start of your turn: Remove 1 token from the L1x1x player's Strategy pool and return it to his reinforcements. Then, place 1 command token from your reinforcements in your Strategy pool. Then, return this card to the L1z1x player.
    - Racial Tehcnology: Inheritance Systems (Yellow, requires 2 Yellow): You may exhaust this card and spend 2 resources when you research a technology; ignore all of that technology's prerequisites.
    - Racial Technology: Super-Dreadnought II (unit upgrade, requires 2 Blue and 1 Yellow): As Dreadnought, but Combat Value 4, Movement 2, Carry Capacity 2. Sustain Damage, Bombardment 4. This unit cannot be destroyed by "Direct Hit" Action Cards.
    - Assimilate: When you gain control of a planet, replace each PDS and Space Dock that is on that planet with a matching unit from your reinforcements.
    - Harrow: After each round of Ground Combat, your ships in the active system may use their Bombardment abilities against your opponent's ground forces on the planet.

    The Winnu (Phyphor)
    Commodities: 0 / 3
    Trade Goods: 1
    Action Cards: 3

    Tactic Pool: 2
    Fleet Pool: 3
    Strategy Pool: 0

    Promissory Notes: Naalu's Gift of Prescience, Hacan's Ceasefire (Trade Agreement, Political Secret, Support for the Throne, Acquiescence)
    Technology: Sarween Tools, Hegemonic Trade Policy

    Worlds:
    R - Winnu (3R, 4I)
    R - Mecatol Rex (1R, 6I)
    R - Abyz (Hazardous, 3R, 0I)
    R - Arinam (Industrial, 1R, 2I)
    R - Fria (Hazardous, 2R, 0I)
    R - Meer (Hazardous, 0R, 4I, R, Research Team: Warfare)
    R - Wellon (Industrial, 1R, 2I, Y)

    Other Racial Data:
    - Flagship: Salai Sai Corian: Combat Value 7 (x?), Movement 1, Carry Capacity 3. Sustain Damage. When this unit makes a combat roll, it rolls a number of dice equal to the number of your opponent's non-Fighter ships in this system.
    - Racial Promissory Note: Acquiescence: At the end of the Strategy Phase: Exchange 1 of your Strategy Cards with a Strategy Card that was chosen by the Winnu player. Then, return this card to the Winnu player.
    - Racial Technology: Lazax Gate Folding (Blue, requires 2 Blue): During your Tactical Actions, if you do not control Mecatol Rex, treat its system as if it contains both an Alpha and Beta wormhole. Action: If you control Mecatol Rex, exhaust this card to place 1 Infantry from your reinforcements on Mecatol Rex.
    - Racial Technology: Hegemonic Trade Policy (Yellow, requires 2 Yellow): Exhaust this card when 1 or more of your units use Production; swap the resource and influence value of 1 planet you control until the end of your turn.
    - Blood Ties: You do not have to spend influence to remove the Custodians token from Mecatol Rex.
    - Reclamation: After you resolve a Tactical Action during which you gained control of Mecatol Rex, you may place 1 PDS and 1 Space Dock from your reinforcements on Mecatol Rex.

    The Emirates of Hacan (jakobagger)
    Commodities: 0 / 6
    Trade Goods: 2
    Action Cards: 3

    Tactic Pool: 2
    Fleet Pool: 3
    Strategy Pool: 1

    Promissory Notes: Winnu's Ceasefire, N'orr's Tekklar Legion, (Political Secret, Support for the Throne, Trade Convoys)
    Technology: Antimass Deflectors, Sarween Tools, Neural Motivator, War Sun

    Worlds:
    R - Arretze (2R, 0I)
    R - Hercant (1R, 1I)
    R - Kamdorn (0R, 1I)
    R - Centauri (Cultural, 1R, 3I)
    R - Coorneeq (Cultural, 1R, 2I)
    R - Gral (Industrial, 1R, 1I, B)
    R - Quann (Cultural, 2R, 1I)
    R - Qucen'n (Industrial, 1R, 2I)
    R - Rarron (Cultural, 0R, 3I)
    R - Resculon (Cultural, 2R, 0I)
    R - Vefut II (Hazardous, 2R, 0I)

    Other Racial Data:
    - Flagship: Wrath of Kenara: Combat Value 7 (x2), Movement 1, Carry Capacity 3. Sustain Damage. After you roll a die during a Space Combat in this system, you may spend 1 Trade Good to apply +1 to the result.
    - Racial Promissory Note: Trade Convoys: Action: Place this card faceup in your play area. While this card is in your play area, you may negotiate transactions with players who are not your neighbor. If you activate a system that contains 1 or more of the Hacan player's units, return this card to the Hacan player.
    - Racial Technology: Production Biomes (Green, requires 2 Green): Action: Exhaust this card and spend 1 token from your Strategy pool to gain 4 Trade Goods and choose 1 other player; that player gains 2 Trade Goods.
    - Racial Technology: Quantum Datahub Node (Yellow, requires 3 Yellow): At the end of the Strategy Phase, you may spend 1 token from your Strategy pool and give another player 3 of your Trade Goods. If you do, give 1 of your Strategy cards to that player and take 1 of his Strategy cards.
    - Masters of Trade: You do not have to spend a Command token to resolve the secondary ability of the Trade Strategy card.
    - Guild Ships: You can negotiate transactions with players who are not your neighbor.
    - Arbiters: When negotiating a transaction, Action Cards can be exchanged as part of that transaction.

    The Naalu Collective (Lykouragh)
    Commodities: 0 / 3
    Trade Goods: 0
    Action Cards: 4

    Tactic Pool: 1
    Fleet Pool: 2
    Strategy Pool: 1

    Promissory Notes: (Ceasefire, Trade Agreement, Political Secret, Support for the Throne)
    Technology: Neural Motivator, Sarween Tools, Antimass Deflectors

    Worlds:
    R - Maaluuk (0R, 2I)
    R - Druaa (3R, 1I)
    R - Mehar Xull (Hazardous, 1R, 3I, R)
    R - New Albion (Industrial, 1R, 1I, G)
    R - Starpoint (Hazardous, 3R, 1I)

    Other Racial Data:
    - Racial Unit: Hybrid Crystal Fighter (Fighter): As Fighter, but Combat Value 8.
    - Flagship: Matriarch: Combat Value 9 (x2), Movement 1, Carry Capacity 6. Sustain Damage. During an invasion in this system, you may commit Fighters to planets as if they were ground forces. After combat, return those units to the space area.
    - Racial Promissory Note: Gift of Prescience: At the end of the Strategy Phase: place this card face up in your play area and place the Naalu "0" token on your Strategy Card; you are first in initiative order. The Naalu player cannot use his "Telepathic" faction ability during this game round. Return this card to the Naalu player at the end of the Status Phase.
    - Racial Technology: Hybrid Crystal Fighter II (unit upgrade, requires 1 Green and 1 Blue): As Fighter, but Combat Value 7, Movement 2. Does not need to be Carried; each Fighter in excess of your ships' Capacity counts as 1/2 of a ship against your Fleet pool.
    - Racial Technology: Hybrid Crystal Fighter II (unit upgrade, requires 1 Green and 1 Blue): As Fighter, but Combat Value 7, Movement 2. Does not need to be Carried; each Fighter in excess of your ships' Capacity counts as 1/2 of a ship against your Fleet pool.
    - Racial Technology: Neuroglaive (Green, requires 3 Green): After another player activates a system that contains 1 or more of your ships, that player removes 1 token from his Fleet pool and returns it to his reinforcements.
    - Telepathic: At the end of the Strategy Phase, place the Naalu "0" token on the Strategy Card; you are first in initiative order.
    - Foresight: After another player moves ships into a system that contains 1 or more of your ships, you may place 1 token from your Strategy pool in an adjacent system that does not contain another player's ships; move your ships from the active system into that system.

    Sardakk N'orr (MrBody)
    Commodities: 0 / 3
    Trade Goods: 1
    Action Cards: 3

    Tactic Pool: 2
    Fleet Pool: 3
    Strategy Pool: 1

    Promissory Notes: (Ceasefire, Trade Agreement, Political Secret, Support for the Throne)
    Technology: Sarween Tools, Antimass Deflectors, Gravity Drive

    Worlds:
    R - Tren'lak (1R, 0I)
    R - Quinarra (3R, 1I)
    R - Lodor (Cultural, 3R, 1I)
    R - Mellon (Cultural, 0R, 2I)
    R - Tequ'ran (Hazardous, 2R, 0I)
    R - Thibah (Industrial, 1R, 1I, B)
    R - Torkan (Cultural, 0R, 3I)
    R - Zohbat (Hazardous, 3R, 1I)

    Other Racial Data:
    - Racial Unit: Exotrireme (Dreadnought): As Dreadought, but Bombardment 4 (x2).
    - Flagship: C'morran N'orr: Combat Value 6 (x2), Movement 1, Carry Capacity 3. Sustain Damage. Apply +1 to the result of each of your other ships' combat rolls in this system.
    - Racial Promissory Note: Tekklar Legion: At the start of an Invasion Combat: Apply +1 to the result of each of your units' combat rolls during this combat. If your opponent is the N'orr player, apply -1 to the result of each of his unit's combat rolls during this combat. Then, return this card to the N'orr player.
    - Racial Technology: Valkyrie Particle Weave (Red, requires 2 Red): After making combat rolls during a round of Ground Combat, if your opponent produced 1 or more hits, you produce 1 additional hit.
    - Racial Technology: Exotrireme II (unit upgrade, requires 2 Blue and 1 Yellow): As Dreadnought, but Movement 2, Bombardment 4 (x2). This unit cannot be destroyed by "Direct Hit" action cards. After a round of Space Combat, you may destroy this unit to destroy up to 2 ships in this system.
    - Unrelenting: Apply +1 to the result of each of your units' combat rolls.

    Neutral Worlds and Laws
    Research Team: Warfare: Attached to Meer. When the owner of this planet researches technology, he may exhaust this card to ignore 1 red prerequisite.

    Order of Play
    The L1z1x Mindnet: (@Ketar)
    The Winnu:
    The Emirates of Hacan:
    The Naalu Collective:
    Sardakk N'orr:
    The Embers of Muaat:

    The (2) Diplomacy Strategy Card holds two Trade Goods and the (8) Imperial Strategy Cards holds one Trade Good; a player selecting one of these cards acquires the goods on that card.

    MrBlarney on
    chirisigtext.png
  • MrBlarneyMrBlarney Registered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Lykouragh has first vote, and should specify number of votes used.
    If all votes are attributed to Muuat, I will be usingall my votes for Muuat as well, and the agenda should resolve for Muuat.
    Oh, it looks like you posted as I was preparing the status post. Based on player declarations, it looked like the outcome was going to be the same, so I just skipped over the formalities this time around.

    chirisigtext.png
    Ketardiscriderjakobagger
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Diplomacy should have more than one no? It hasn't been picked yet

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
    discrider
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    You want to use Diplomacy on MR twice?!
    These Winnu are crazy.

    Steam Community page: http://steamcommunity.com/id/discrider/
    Oh hey! A knife!
  • MrBlarneyMrBlarney Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Diplomacy should have more than one no? It hasn't been picked yet
    Ah, right. It should have two Trade Goods on it. I'll edit the status post.

    chirisigtext.png
  • KetarKetar My autocomplete is a tad agressive today.Registered User regular
    Technology

    @Phyphor

  • MrBlarneyMrBlarney Registered User regular
    I have been informed that I've missed a couple of things, thanks to a PM from an audience member.

    In Round 2, Action Phase Update 1, I failed to note Muaat's transfer of their Ceasefire promissory note to L1z1x, following establishing control of Saudor. This has been edited into the history.
    In Round 2, Action Phase Update 3, I failed to revise Muaat's Fleet pool count following Hacan's play of Fires of the Gashlai. One of the effects of the promissory note is that Muaat's Fleet Pool is reduced by 1 (FP 4 --> 3). This has been edited into the history, and fortunately, had no effect on ship placement. However, I will also allow @discrider to change the counter allocations from the Round 2 Status Phase if he wishes to.

    chirisigtext.png
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    @MrBlarney I believe I went 3 -> 4 F subsequently
    Yeah...
    3/4/2 T/F/S
    I somehow picked up 3 CC in status

    discrider on
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  • MrBlarneyMrBlarney Registered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    MrBlarney I believe I went 3 -> 4 F subsequently
    Yeah...
    3/4/2 T/F/S
    I somehow picked up 3 CC in status
    It only looks that way because I edited the immediately preceding status post to account for the fact that I forgot to remove that extra Fleet pool token. Should be good now.

    chirisigtext.png
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    MrBlarney wrote: »
    discrider wrote: »
    MrBlarney I believe I went 3 -> 4 F subsequently
    Yeah...
    3/4/2 T/F/S
    I somehow picked up 3 CC in status
    It only looks that way because I edited the immediately preceding status post to account for the fact that I forgot to remove that extra Fleet pool token. Should be good now.

    Well, I was accounting for the lost FC and wanted to go to 4 in status, but didn't notice the extra TC I gave myself.
    All good now though.

    Steam Community page: http://steamcommunity.com/id/discrider/
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  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    The galaxy requires our Leadership

    @jakobagger

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    The galaxy requires our Leadership

    @jakobagger

    We hope you're not forgetting the Naalu's Gift.

    Steam Community page: http://steamcommunity.com/id/discrider/
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  • jakobaggerjakobagger LO THY DREAD EMPIRE CHAOS IS RESTORED Registered User regular
    Politics

    bgg / steam / goodreads / Bnet: Bygasto#2537
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Of course not, we're just not going to use it this turn

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Unless it's mandatory for some reason?

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Of course not, we're just not going to use it this turn

    You just seemed so keen to have it, we're surprised.

    Steam Community page: http://steamcommunity.com/id/discrider/
    Oh hey! A knife!
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Steam Community page: http://steamcommunity.com/id/discrider/
    Oh hey! A knife!
  • PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Of course not, we're just not going to use it this turn

    You just seemed so keen to have it, we're surprised.

    Well, if ketar hadn't taken technology I would have. It was a contingency plan if my diplomacy card failed

    Magic Box
    Academician Prokhor "Phyphor" Zakharov, Chief Scientist of China, Provost of the University of Planet - SE++ Megagame
  • LykouraghLykouragh Registered User regular
    Trade

    @MrBody

  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    I've been reading a lot that the N'orr are a late game race because their +1 only starts coming into effect when lots of dice are rolled.

    Either I'm not remembering my basic probability correctly, or the benefit of +1 to a roll is exactly the same regardless of whether it's 1 die or 100.

    MrBody on
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    I would've thought you were an early game race as +1 should be more important for a hit on 8 or 9 than on say 5.

    But yeah, in an otherwise even fight, the +1 should always be good.
    Smaller fights are more swingy though, and so it's more possible that the fight could end without your +1 affecting the outcome at all, even if on average it has the same effect over multiple battles.

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    Oh hey! A knife!
    jakobagger
  • LykouraghLykouragh Registered User regular
    MrBody wrote: »
    I've been reading a lot that the N'orr are a late game race because their +1 only starts coming into effect when lots of dice are rolled.

    Either I'm not remembering my basic probability correctly, or the benefit of +1 to a roll is exactly the same regardless of whether it's 1 die or 100.

    I guess for very small numbers of dice, +1 is better on 5 rolls than 1 roll because you get 0 benefit until it triggers the first time.

  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    @MrBlarney is the Naalu racial promissory note mandatory to be used the first chance it can? It's going to affect my strategy card choice.

    @Phyphor I don't suppose you can be convinced to use it?

  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    @MrBody it's not.
    He can trade it or use it whenever it allows him to.

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  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    Compare the trigger with Support for the Throne's: When you receive this card, if you are not the <color> player, you must place it faceup in your play area
    Until Phyphor plays it at the beginning of the Action phase, it stays unplayed and tradable.
    (Trigger is: At the end of the Strategy Phase: )

    discrider on
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  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    Well poop. @discrider What are you planning on taking? Can we coordinate?

    MrBody on
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    What's left? What did you want?

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  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    Diplomacy, Construction, Warfare, Imperial

    I'll give you my trade good at first opportunity to take Construction and play it first turn. Or...delay that if the snakes decide to try and take Lodor first. If they do, it would take me 3 action turns to retake it.

    MrBody on
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    I have like no reason to take Construction :S
    So yeah, we wouldn't do that for a TG

    discrider on
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  • MrBlarneyMrBlarney Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    Yes, I'll confirm that "Gift of Prescience" does not need to be played immediately. Think if it like an Action Card whose trigger is "At the end of the Strategy Phase".
    MrBody wrote: »
    I've been reading a lot that the N'orr are a late game race because their +1 only starts coming into effect when lots of dice are rolled.

    Either I'm not remembering my basic probability correctly, or the benefit of +1 to a roll is exactly the same regardless of whether it's 1 die or 100.
    The N'orr's "Unrelenting" ability is the same on any individual die roll, but its effects will be triggered more, the more dice that are rolled. For each die rolled, it adds 0.1 hits to the expected number of hits generated. It is true that it the expected number of hits gained by the ability is the same if two dice are rolled five times each, or if five dice are rolled two times each. However, note that in the first case it required five rolls to gain one expected hit, but in the latter case, it required only two rolls. Now think of the two-dice roll as representing an early-game fleet, and the five-dice roll as representing a mid- or late-game fleet. The fact that it requires less combat to get the same effects late in the game compared to early might be what others mean by the "Unrelenting" ability being mostly impactful late in the game.

    MrBlarney on
    chirisigtext.png
  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    But also note the approximation that for small X%, X% x X% = 2X%.
    The first is two shots from a low Combat Value ship, whereas the latter is roughly a Relentless ship.
    For low CV ships, you are basically bringing a ship and a half of power to the battle.

    It will be more swingy early game, but late game a CV of 5 or 4 is not as big a difference compared to how long that 5 or 4 can stay up.



    ....
    I think I've misapplied that.
    The 2X doesn't generate two hits, whereas X x X does.

    ....
    Nope!
    The X^2 term might hit twice, but X is small so we discard it. And so X+modifer is very close to X firing over an extra combat round.

    discrider on
    Steam Community page: http://steamcommunity.com/id/discrider/
    Oh hey! A knife!
  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    pffff, FINE I guess we'll just turtle then

    Imperial

    @discrider Diplomacy, Construction, Warfare left

  • discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    MrBody wrote: »
    pffff, FINE I guess we'll just turtle then

    Imperial

    @discrider Diplomacy, Construction, Warfare left

    I need to think

    Steam Community page: http://steamcommunity.com/id/discrider/
    Oh hey! A knife!
  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    MrBlarney wrote: »
    The N'orr's "Unrelenting" ability is the same on any individual die roll, but its effects will be triggered more, the more dice that are rolled. For each die rolled, it adds 0.1 hits to the expected number of hits generated. It is true that it the expected number of hits gained by the ability is the same if two dice are rolled five times each, or if five dice are rolled two times each. However, note that in the first case it required five rolls to gain one expected hit, but in the latter case, it required only two rolls. Now think of the two-dice roll as representing an early-game fleet, and the five-dice roll as representing a mid- or late-game fleet. The fact that it requires less combat to get the same effects late in the game compared to early might be what others mean by the "Unrelenting" ability being mostly impactful late in the game.

    I promise not to clog up the thread any more after this.

    Extreme nerd probability ahead!
    (all of the following is assuming exactly equal combat match ups)

    P.P.S (also simplifying the exact odds numbers because the exact maths is hard)

    As you add more units/dice though, each individual hit becomes less important. 0.1 hits when one unit per side is involved is just as valuable as 1 hit when 10 units per side are involved. As more dice are added, the odds of the +1 triggering goes up in inverse proportion to the value of those triggers.

    It gets less swingy with more dice, yes. But when it is swingy, it could go either way. Less swingy just means you'll average out to +10% better on each unit roll, while more swingy means you'll have that same edge in determining if you completely wipe out your opponent in one hit while suffering no losses in return, or the reverse. The stakes being higher with each individual hit has no effect on how beneficial the +1 is.

    Put it this way. If you're going to gamble $100 with a 10% advantage, it doesn't matter if you bet it all on one round or $1 over a hundred rounds. As far as probability is concerned, the advantage influences the outcome in exactly the same way. The only difference is the former gives you a 60% chance of winning $100 and 40% chance of losing it all, while the latter is more of a sure thing that you'll win $60. In both cases the advantage will have been equally beneficial.

    It's correct though that it benefits fighters/destroyers/cruisers more than dreads or warsuns. While it still remains a 1/10 chance of triggering regardless of the unit's combat value, combat continues unchanged indefinitely every time a miss is rolled. If a unit only hits on a 10, then the +1 doubles the amount times that a hit comes up. In essence you've doubled the chance of the RNG not telling you, "Sorry, try again!", but more importantly you've done this WHILE the value of individual hits remains unchanged since each hit is just as crucial whether it's 5v5 destroyers or 5v5 cruisers or 5v5 warsuns. With warsuns you're only increasing the non-hit chance by ~12.5% .

    MrBody on
  • MrBlarneyMrBlarney Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    MrBody wrote: »
    MrBlarney wrote: »
    The N'orr's "Unrelenting" ability is the same on any individual die roll, but its effects will be triggered more, the more dice that are rolled. For each die rolled, it adds 0.1 hits to the expected number of hits generated. It is true that it the expected number of hits gained by the ability is the same if two dice are rolled five times each, or if five dice are rolled two times each. However, note that in the first case it required five rolls to gain one expected hit, but in the latter case, it required only two rolls. Now think of the two-dice roll as representing an early-game fleet, and the five-dice roll as representing a mid- or late-game fleet. The fact that it requires less combat to get the same effects late in the game compared to early might be what others mean by the "Unrelenting" ability being mostly impactful late in the game.

    I promise not to clog up the thread any more after this.
    As you add more units/dice though, each individual hit becomes less important. 0.1 hits when one unit per side is involved is just as valuable as 1 hit when 10 units per side are involved. As more dice are added, the odds of the +1 triggering goes up in inverse proportion to the value of those triggers.

    It gets less swingy with more dice, yes. But when it is swingy, it could go either way. Less swingy just means you'll average out to +10% better on each unit roll, while more swingy means you'll have that same edge in determining if you completely wipe out your opponent in one hit while suffering no losses in return, or the reverse. The stakes being higher with each individual hit has no effect on how beneficial the +1 is.

    Put it this way. If you're going to gamble $100 with a 10% advantage, it doesn't matter if you bet it all on one round or $1 over a hundred rounds. As far as probability is concerned, the advantage influences the outcome in exactly the same way. The only difference is the former gives you a 60% chance of winning $100 and 40% chance of losing it all, while the latter is more of a sure thing that you'll win $60. In both cases the advantage will have been equally beneficial.
    Just because you promise not to continue clogging the thread doesn't mean that I won't. :P
    Here's another consideration. You have to remember that combat is run over multiple rounds. The hits that happen early in the combat have a snowball effect, and so are more valuable than those later in the combat. With the N'orr's combat advantage, the larger combat numbers provide their units a higher consistency in a positive outcome. I quickly wrote up a Python script for a simple invasion combat sim:
    """
    Simple script for computing win probabilities for invasions
    """
    
    import numpy as np
    
    # simulation parameters
    n_sims = 100000
    atk_units = 2
    atk_p_hit = 0.3
    def_units = 2
    def_p_hit = 0.3
    
    # initiate counters
    atk_wins = 0
    def_wins = 0
    
    # run simulations
    for _ in range(n_sims):
        attackers = atk_units
        defenders = def_units
        # combat rounds
        while (attackers > 0) and (defenders > 0):
            atk_hits = sum(np.random.rand(attackers) < atk_p_hit)
            def_hits = sum(np.random.rand(defenders) < def_p_hit)
            attackers -= def_hits
            defenders -= atk_hits
        # results; defender holds if both sides wiped out
        if attackers > 0:
            atk_wins += 1
        else:
            def_wins += 1
    
    # print results
    print("Attacker wins: {}".format(atk_wins))
    print("Defender wins: {}".format(def_wins))
    
    With basic Infantry and two units per side, the attacker wins about 46.3% of the time with even combat stats. If the attacker is N'orr, their win rate expands to about 58.5%. This increase in win rate is dramatically larger with more units in play. At five units per side and no combat advantages, the attacker wins about 48.8% of invasions. N'orr as attacker gets away with about a 68.5% win rate.

    EDIT: Looks like you made some additions to your post as I was running sims and writing things up:
    MrBody wrote: »
    It's correct though that it benefits fighters/destroyers/cruisers more than dreads or warsuns. While it still remains a 1/10 chance of triggering regardless of the unit's combat value, combat continues unchanged indefinitely every time a miss is rolled. If a unit only hits on a 10, then the +1 doubles the amount times that a hit comes up. In essence you've doubled the chance of the RNG not telling you, "Sorry, try again!", but more importantly you've done this WHILE the value of individual hits remains unchanged since each hit is just as crucial whether it's 5v5 destroyers or 5v5 cruisers or 5v5 warsuns. With warsuns you're only increasing the non-hit chance by ~12.5% .
    True: in terms of relative improvement of capabilities, a +1 is more impactful for the weaker units than the stronger ones. Combat remains more 'swingy' for longer when the units involved have higher combat values. If we go back to the previous spoiler, and we have Infantry II fighting each other instead of standard Infantry, then at five units per side, the attacker win rates are 48.1% and 64.9%, for no combat advantage and N'orr advantage, respectively.

    MrBlarney on
    chirisigtext.png
  • MrBodyMrBody Registered User regular
    edited October 2017
    MrBlarney wrote: »
    MrBody wrote: »
    MrBlarney wrote: »
    The N'orr's "Unrelenting" ability is the same on any individual die roll, but its effects will be triggered more, the more dice that are rolled. For each die rolled, it adds 0.1 hits to the expected number of hits generated. It is true that it the expected number of hits gained by the ability is the same if two dice are rolled five times each, or if five dice are rolled two times each. However, note that in the first case it required five rolls to gain one expected hit, but in the latter case, it required only two rolls. Now think of the two-dice roll as representing an early-game fleet, and the five-dice roll as representing a mid- or late-game fleet. The fact that it requires less combat to get the same effects late in the game compared to early might be what others mean by the "Unrelenting" ability being mostly impactful late in the game.

    I promise not to clog up the thread any more after this.
    As you add more units/dice though, each individual hit becomes less important. 0.1 hits when one unit per side is involved is just as valuable as 1 hit when 10 units per side are involved. As more dice are added, the odds of the +1 triggering goes up in inverse proportion to the value of those triggers.

    It gets less swingy with more dice, yes. But when it is swingy, it could go either way. Less swingy just means you'll average out to +10% better on each unit roll, while more swingy means you'll have that same edge in determining if you completely wipe out your opponent in one hit while suffering no losses in return, or the reverse. The stakes being higher with each individual hit has no effect on how beneficial the +1 is.

    Put it this way. If you're going to gamble $100 with a 10% advantage, it doesn't matter if you bet it all on one round or $1 over a hundred rounds. As far as probability is concerned, the advantage influences the outcome in exactly the same way. The only difference is the former gives you a 60% chance of winning $100 and 40% chance of losing it all, while the latter is more of a sure thing that you'll win $60. In both cases the advantage will have been equally beneficial.
    Just because you promise not to continue clogging the thread doesn't mean that I won't. :P
    Here's another consideration. You have to remember that combat is run over multiple rounds. The hits that happen early in the combat have a snowball effect, and so are more valuable than those later in the combat. With the N'orr's combat advantage, the larger combat numbers provide their units a higher consistency in a positive outcome. I quickly wrote up a Python script for a simple invasion combat sim:
    """
    Simple script for computing win probabilities for invasions
    """
    
    import numpy as np
    
    # simulation parameters
    n_sims = 100000
    atk_units = 2
    atk_p_hit = 0.3
    def_units = 2
    def_p_hit = 0.3
    
    # initiate counters
    atk_wins = 0
    def_wins = 0
    
    # run simulations
    for _ in range(n_sims):
        attackers = atk_units
        defenders = def_units
        # combat rounds
        while (attackers > 0) and (defenders > 0):
            atk_hits = sum(np.random.rand(attackers) < atk_p_hit)
            def_hits = sum(np.random.rand(defenders) < def_p_hit)
            attackers -= def_hits
            defenders -= atk_hits
        # results; defender holds if both sides wiped out
        if attackers > 0:
            atk_wins += 1
        else:
            def_wins += 1
    
    # print results
    print("Attacker wins: {}".format(atk_wins))
    print("Defender wins: {}".format(def_wins))
    
    With basic Infantry and two units per side, the attacker wins about 46.3% of the time with even combat stats. If the attacker is N'orr, their win rate expands to about 58.5%. This increase in win rate is dramatically larger with more units in play. At five units per side and no combat advantages, the attacker wins about 48.8% of invasions. N'orr as attacker gets away with about a 68.5% win rate.

    Doh, you've triggered me! We can continue this in PM if you want.
    You have to consider what "winning" entails though. With a small number of units, it means you likely won with very little to no loss, with each unit loss being more valuable in the early game when fewer are available. Later game with a larger number of units, "winning" is more likely to mean you each went in with a lot of units and you survived but with a lot of casualties. The only thing increasing the number of units does is hedge your bet. Compare going to combat with 1-2 ships and a 58%.5 chance of emerging victorious with zero casualties (and a 41.5% of your opponent winning with zero casualties) to going into combat with 5 ships and a 68.5% chance of winning but losing 3-4 ships in the process.

    Go back to the $100 gamble. "Winning" would mean coming out ahead, but ignore the magnitude of the final result. Spreading it across one hundred $1 bets increases the odds of you coming out ahead, but also that you'll only win $60. Betting it all at once increases the odds that you do not come out ahead, but getting a favorable outcome is a guaranteed win of $100. Probability wise the benefit is the same.

    There are sometimes battles where whoever is still alive at the end is all that matter regardless of loss, but it's not as simple as a win/loss binary.

    As far as the N'orr advantage being less valuable early game, imagine it's a small first round battle that could knock out your opponent's (possibly only) starting carrier. Can it really be argued that the +1 is going to make less of a difference than a mid-late game fleet clash?

    MrBody on
  • MrBlarneyMrBlarney Registered User regular
    MrBody wrote: »
    MrBlarney wrote: »
    MrBody wrote: »
    MrBlarney wrote: »
    The N'orr's "Unrelenting" ability is the same on any individual die roll, but its effects will be triggered more, the more dice that are rolled. For each die rolled, it adds 0.1 hits to the expected number of hits generated. It is true that it the expected number of hits gained by the ability is the same if two dice are rolled five times each, or if five dice are rolled two times each. However, note that in the first case it required five rolls to gain one expected hit, but in the latter case, it required only two rolls. Now think of the two-dice roll as representing an early-game fleet, and the five-dice roll as representing a mid- or late-game fleet. The fact that it requires less combat to get the same effects late in the game compared to early might be what others mean by the "Unrelenting" ability being mostly impactful late in the game.

    I promise not to clog up the thread any more after this.
    As you add more units/dice though, each individual hit becomes less important. 0.1 hits when one unit per side is involved is just as valuable as 1 hit when 10 units per side are involved. As more dice are added, the odds of the +1 triggering goes up in inverse proportion to the value of those triggers.

    It gets less swingy with more dice, yes. But when it is swingy, it could go either way. Less swingy just means you'll average out to +10% better on each unit roll, while more swingy means you'll have that same edge in determining if you completely wipe out your opponent in one hit while suffering no losses in return, or the reverse. The stakes being higher with each individual hit has no effect on how beneficial the +1 is.

    Put it this way. If you're going to gamble $100 with a 10% advantage, it doesn't matter if you bet it all on one round or $1 over a hundred rounds. As far as probability is concerned, the advantage influences the outcome in exactly the same way. The only difference is the former gives you a 60% chance of winning $100 and 40% chance of losing it all, while the latter is more of a sure thing that you'll win $60. In both cases the advantage will have been equally beneficial.
    Just because you promise not to continue clogging the thread doesn't mean that I won't. :P
    Here's another consideration. You have to remember that combat is run over multiple rounds. The hits that happen early in the combat have a snowball effect, and so are more valuable than those later in the combat. With the N'orr's combat advantage, the larger combat numbers provide their units a higher consistency in a positive outcome. I quickly wrote up a Python script for a simple invasion combat sim:
    """
    Simple script for computing win probabilities for invasions
    """
    
    import numpy as np
    
    # simulation parameters
    n_sims = 100000
    atk_units = 2
    atk_p_hit = 0.3
    def_units = 2
    def_p_hit = 0.3
    
    # initiate counters
    atk_wins = 0
    def_wins = 0
    
    # run simulations
    for _ in range(n_sims):
        attackers = atk_units
        defenders = def_units
        # combat rounds
        while (attackers > 0) and (defenders > 0):
            atk_hits = sum(np.random.rand(attackers) < atk_p_hit)
            def_hits = sum(np.random.rand(defenders) < def_p_hit)
            attackers -= def_hits
            defenders -= atk_hits
        # results; defender holds if both sides wiped out
        if attackers > 0:
            atk_wins += 1
        else:
            def_wins += 1
    
    # print results
    print("Attacker wins: {}".format(atk_wins))
    print("Defender wins: {}".format(def_wins))
    
    With basic Infantry and two units per side, the attacker wins about 46.3% of the time with even combat stats. If the attacker is N'orr, their win rate expands to about 58.5%. This increase in win rate is dramatically larger with more units in play. At five units per side and no combat advantages, the attacker wins about 48.8% of invasions. N'orr as attacker gets away with about a 68.5% win rate.

    Doh, you've triggered me! We can continue this in PM if you want.
    You have to consider what "winning" entails though. With a small number of units, it means you likely won with very little to no loss, with each unit loss being more valuable in the early game when fewer are available. Later game with a larger number of units, "winning" is more likely to mean you each went in with a lot of units and you survived but with a lot of casualties. The only thing increasing the number of units does is hedge your bet. Compare going to combat with 1-2 ships and a 58%.5 chance of emerging victorious with zero casualties (and a 41.5% of your opponent winning with zero casualties) to going into combat with 5 ships and a 68.5% chance of winning but losing 3-4 ships in the process. There are sometimes battles where whoever is still alive at the end is all that matter regardless of loss, but it's not as simple as a win/loss binary.

    As far as the N'orr advantage being less valuable early game, imagine it's a small first round battle that could knock out your opponent's (possibly only) starting carrier. Can it really be argued that the +1 is going to make less of a difference than a mid-late game fleet clash?
    I'm trying to wind myself down to sleep, man. But I do think that it's important have this conversation for others to reference in case this kind of question comes up in other games with probabilistic combat resolutions. It's probably best to make a new thread for it rather than continue here. But before I go to bed, there are two things that stand out to me:
    The example in your first paragraph implies that small combats are decisive and that the large combats are pyrrhic. Using the numbers from my post like that misconstrues the situation, since I never said anything about the expected number of units left alive! Considering the moderate combat values, my gut says that more units are lost (in terms of %) by the winner in small combats than in large ones; it'll just require some small tweaks to the simulation script to actually see the distribution of outcomes.

    As for the second paragraph, you could just as easily come up with examples of less-consequential early combats (e.g. taking a lightly-guarded border planet) or highly-consequential late-game combats (e.g. defense of a home system). In any case, my initial post was more speaking from the mathematical standpoint of the number of times the bonus is applied without regard to board scenarios. N'orr's +1 "Unrelenting" advantage is going to be applied much more often late in the game because there are more die rolls that use that +1. I don't claim to make a statement on whether or not N'orr's power spike is early or late, only to try and see why others might argue that N'orr blooms late in the game.

    chirisigtext.png
    mindflare77
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