Republican candidate Brian Kemp was the head of the state’s election commission, and only stepped down from that post today to “begin transition into the role of governor,” a position he has not been declared winner of yet.
We have an explanation...Kemp did everything he could think of to steal the election and in a sane universe he’d end up in jail at the end of all this.
+69
AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
We have an explanation...Kemp did everything he could think of to steal the election and in a sane universe he’d end up in jail at the end of all this.
Yeah, the Buttery Males/Voter ID crowd can go fuck themselves after this
Looks like my district may be getting the Not So Fast treatment too. It hadn't been officially called, but this is the most optimistic take I've seen for Cisneros (D).
CA districts you're best to just sit and wait on. Ballots are mailed, and the official tallies will continue increasing until Dec 8th, which is the cutoff.
It is still plausible that after all this, the Senate ends up right where it was before Doug Jones.
If the Democrats sneak out both of these Senate races this officially becomes a bloodbath in their favor.
Broward is going 2:1 Nelson, but he's down 17k. They would need to have 51k ballots left (+ whatever the apparent overlook rate is) to carry him. That would put them around 65% turnout; which seems high given their peers.
Not unheard of for them, it was 71% in '16, but only 44% in '14. The fact I can't seem convince myself to give up (and just wait) is whats really killing me.
The MS-Sen race went to a runoff, as expected, but Espy did a lot better than anyone thought: trailing Hyde-Smith 41.5-40.6, 8400 votes behind. McDaniel got less than half of either of them, with 146k, and Bartee was also there at 12.7k. Despite Republicans claiming a solid combined majority of votes cast, I do think Espy has a path to victory.
1. Fight the runoff slump. The runoff is the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, and retaining voters will be hard, especially since there will likely not be much awareness. Everyone will suffer from this, but the more he can prevent it, the better.
2. A lot of McDaniel's supporters won't be coming home to Hyde-Smith -- either diehard conservatives who remain unsatisfied, or generally unmotivated to come out with no national election. Espy can boost this by highlighting her history as a Democratic elected politician; in 2007, she defeated a Republican to hold her seat, and may also have done in 1999 (can't find any records of the race, but it's possible.) Emphasizing her being a woman may also keep some people home, as we've seen some conservatives just don't like female politicians.
3. Turn out basically every black voter in the state. Voting is highly racialized in Mississippi: nearly all whites vote Republican. Espy is going to need to get enough black voters to the polls to compensate for Hyde-Smith drawing from the 64% of registered voters who are white.
4. Hammer the health care nail. 40% of MS voters picked it as their top issue over the economy, immigration, and gun policy, and those who did went for Espy 59%, leading Hyde-Smith by thirty-three points.
5. Completely ignore Trump, and generally avoid nationalizing the race. The president is at 61% approval in the state, 40% said they were voting to show him support, and 51% were conservative. Espy has to be a local candidate focused on improving Mississippi or he's sunk.
Let's say that 30% of general election voters don't go for the runoff, as a baseline, but Espy manages to stem his at 20%. That leaves Hyde-Smith at 260k, Espy at 288k, McDaniel's supporters at 100k, and Bartee's at 9k. Call it 30% of McDaniel's supporters who won't vote for Hyde-Smith, for whatever reason, and give her the rest: 58k gives Hyde-Smith 318k to to Espy's 297k. Pumping black turnout might just provide another 20k votes and change.
Now, I am not an expert on Mississippi politics, and I may have been too generous with giving Espy 10% less loss in the runoff and Hyde-Smith 56% of McDaniel's post-runoff support, but all this seems at least somewhat doable.
The MS-Sen race went to a runoff, as expected, but Espy did a lot better than anyone thought: trailing Hyde-Smith 41.5-40.6, 8400 votes behind. McDaniel got less than half of either of them, with 146k, and Bartee was also there at 12.7k. Despite Republicans claiming a solid combined majority of votes cast, I do think Espy has a path to victory.
1. Fight the runoff slump. The runoff is the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, and retaining voters will be hard, especially since there will likely not be much awareness. Everyone will suffer from this, but the more he can prevent it, the better.
2. A lot of McDaniel's supporters won't be coming home to Hyde-Smith -- either diehard conservatives who remain unsatisfied, or generally unmotivated to come out with no national election. Espy can boost this by highlighting her history as a Democratic elected politician; in 2007, she defeated a Republican to hold her seat, and may also have done in 1999 (can't find any records of the race, but it's possible.) Emphasizing her being a woman may also keep some people home, as we've seen some conservatives just don't like female politicians.
3. Turn out basically every black voter in the state. Voting is highly racialized in Mississippi: nearly all whites vote Republican. Espy is going to need to get enough black voters to the polls to compensate for Hyde-Smith drawing from the 64% of registered voters who are white.
4. Hammer the health care nail. 40% of MS voters picked it as their top issue over the economy, immigration, and gun policy, and those who did went for Espy 59%, leading Hyde-Smith by thirty-three points.
5. Completely ignore Trump, and generally avoid nationalizing the race. The president is at 61% approval in the state, 40% said they were voting to show him support, and 51% were conservative. Espy has to be a local candidate focused on improving Mississippi or he's sunk.
Let's say that 30% of general election voters don't go for the runoff, as a baseline, but Espy manages to stem his at 20%. That leaves Hyde-Smith at 260k, Espy at 288k, McDaniel's supporters at 100k, and Bartee's at 9k. Call it 30% of McDaniel's supporters who won't vote for Hyde-Smith, for whatever reason, and give her the rest: 58k gives Hyde-Smith 318k to to Espy's 297k. Pumping black turnout might just provide another 20k votes and change.
Now, I am not an expert on Mississippi politics, and I may have been too generous with giving Espy 10% less loss in the runoff and Hyde-Smith 56% of McDaniel's post-runoff support, but all this seems at least somewhat doable.
Mississippi native here. You're not wrong, it's very doable. MS is going blue in my lifetime, it's just a matter of whether it's sooner or later.
0
minor incidentexpert in a dying fieldnjRegistered Userregular
Regarding native Texans being good people:
A friend on Facebook captioned this: "See? Immigrants ARE ruining Texas!"
Ah, it stinks, it sucks, it's anthropologically unjust
+53
thatassemblyguyJanitor of Technical Debt.Registered Userregular
The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.
0
jungleroomxIt's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovelsRegistered Userregular
The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.
I've been sensing a common theme this election.
If you read the actual quotes from the Reps on this, it's so fucking sea-lioning it's ridiculous.
+14
AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.
I can’t even try to imagine what their point is
“We want these votes invalidated because they might hurt us if counted.”
+9
minor incidentexpert in a dying fieldnjRegistered Userregular
The people who are trying to ensure votes aren't counted are always the most trustworthy.
Right?
Ah, it stinks, it sucks, it's anthropologically unjust
Bad optics and bullshit pettiness aside, I don’t get this. The race is going to a recount. Those votes are going to be counted regardless of they’re against his favor or not.
+12
minor incidentexpert in a dying fieldnjRegistered Userregular
You see, Rick Scott is a miserable, terrible pile of shit who should never have a moment of peace as long as he lives.
Ah, it stinks, it sucks, it's anthropologically unjust
Something else I want to highlight that we talked about in previous threads:
Beto had 495,000 votes for him from people who also voted for Greg Abbot for Governor in Texas.
That's around 13% of the voters in Texas, split between a guy who advocated for a Medicare expansion and a guy who refused to do it multiple times, a charismatic progressive who advocated impeaching the President and a grumpy rightwing conservative Trump supporter.
These two dudes could not be less alike, but a half a million people thought they should both be in office. I'm not really sure what that says about Texas politics, but I think it's pretty interesting.
If that's a legit ballot, I can see it. Senator is right under the Hatian language instructions (which are under the Spanish instructions). A little tunnel vision, a 9 page ballot, and a rush to get out of there could miss it.
Results for specifically that precinct (E006) in the "main" central column on that ballot
Gov: 2965
AG: 2920
CoA: 2891
CFO: 2883
Vs those under the instructions:
Senator: 2873
Dist Rep 22: 2845
The drop is slight, but consistent across precincts.
Skimming through, I don't see any case where Senator gets more than CFO.
I think Washington State ballots look largely similar.
"I will write your name in the ruin of them. I will paint you across history in the color of their blood."
“Late Tuesday night our win was projected about 57,000 votes. By Wednesday morning that lead dropped to 38,000 votes. By Wednesday evening, it was around 30,000 votes. This morning, it was around 21,000. Now, it is 15,000,.”
Do we really expect him to believe that one of the largest, leftest counties in Florida would have turned out to vote against him in numbers consistent with previous years?
Outrageous!
ArbitraryDescriptor on
+4
minor incidentexpert in a dying fieldnjRegistered Userregular
"Votes keep coming in, and they're not for MEEEEEE"
Ah, it stinks, it sucks, it's anthropologically unjust
The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.
I can’t even try to imagine what their point is
“We want these votes invalidated because they might hurt us if counted.”
i believe this was the exact reasoning that won bush v gore.
“Late Tuesday night our win was projected about 57,000 votes. By Wednesday morning that lead dropped to 38,000 votes. By Wednesday evening, it was around 30,000 votes. This morning, it was around 21,000. Now, it is 15,000,.”
Do we really expect him to believe that one of the largest, leftest counties in Florida would have turned out to vote against him in numbers consistent with previous years?
Outrageous!
Everyone knows you stop counting votes at 11:59:59 on election night. None of the votes you couldn’t get to before then matter.
The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.
I can’t even try to imagine what their point is
“We want these votes invalidated because they might hurt us if counted.”
"We didn't quite manage to cheat enough before the election, so we're gonna fix that right now."
If that's a legit ballot, I can see it. Senator is right under the Hatian language instructions (which are under the Spanish instructions). A little tunnel vision, a 9 page ballot, and a rush to get out of there could miss it.
Results for specifically that precinct (E006) in the "main" central column on that ballot
Gov: 2965
AG: 2920
CoA: 2891
CFO: 2883
Vs those under the instructions:
Senator: 2873
Dist Rep 22: 2845
The drop is slight, but consistent across precincts.
Skimming through, I don't see any case where Senator gets more than CFO.
I think Washington State ballots look largely similar.
Not gonna lie, it took me doing a second pass on it for me to find where to vote for Cantwell.
minor incidentexpert in a dying fieldnjRegistered Userregular
Sharing a pretty great thing written by Davis Hammet on Facebook:
Year 2013: I’m a 22 year old queer who moves to Kansas to paint a rainbow house across from a notorious hate group. I realize the politicians here are more dangerous than the hate group; however, the people seem nothing like the politics that dominate. I start to really like Kansas. My boss asks me when I’m coming back to New York since this project was suppose to only be a few months. I tell him “I think I live in Kansas now.”
2014: The most extreme right-wing one-sided government in KS history is elected.
2015: Brownback rescinds LGBTQ protections by executive order making it legal to fire and harass LGBTQ state workers. The KS government increasingly uses prejudice and scapegoating to distract from their failing economic experiment. In response, we organize the largest protest in many years. I get messages from gay state workers who are scared for their safety and future. Kansas is a very dark place in this moment... A Senator walks by me in the Statehouse and softly mentions how wrong the attacks on the LGBTQ community are.
2016: I leave LGBTQ activism to devote myself completely to voter registration and turnout. I’m convinced that if more young Kansans voted things would be different.
2017: 1/3 of the KS legislature is newly elected as a rebuke to Brownback. The first week of session they are greeted by over a thousand Kansans screaming “Who’s House? Our House.” We’ve united different groups under a Kansas People’s Agenda demanding change. The Legislature starts to turn things around and activism is growing. The Brownback Experiment is repealed… Some random lady messages me saying she wants to talk about the future of Kansas. She’s pretty great.
2018: That random lady, Sharice Davids, is elected the first LGBTQ Congressperson from Kansas. She gives a victory speech surrounded by LGBTQ youth. I’m overwhelmed thinking back to how most my life I thought accepting my sexuality meant forfeiting my future. The same night Brandon Woodard and Susan Ruiz are elected the first LGBTQ Kansas State Representatives.
2019: The Senator who softly spoke words of solidarity to me in 2015, Laura Kelly, is the Governor and her first executive order is restoring LGBTQ protections to state workers.
Nothing.
Nothing.
Nothing happens by accident.
Every drop of decency is fought for.
Ah, it stinks, it sucks, it's anthropologically unjust
+88
jungleroomxIt's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovelsRegistered Userregular
Fuck no we don’t need to kowtow to deep red bigots and dilute our progressive branding to try to win over people who will never vote in good faith
“You’d do better if you were a lot shittier” is not a logic or a brand I’m willing to tolerate.
Yeah nah fuck that "cross the aisle" shit.
Our position is all people should be treated as people.
That is not a stance I'm willing to abdicate.
I wish I could agree with you on holding that line, because you're right - crossing the aisle for anything like people being treated humanely is something which shouldn't have to be bargained for. The problem is, the party has its own conservative division, and the asshole Joe Manchin seems to be positioning himself into being Liebermann 2.0., and there are probably others from red states doing the same. With bipartisanship with the GOP becoming less viable as they grow more unhinged and radicalised the Dems will still need to compromise with assholes, especially with the White House being held by the GOP for the next few years.
I truly wish politics weren't such a dumpster fire we could ignore this obstacle, both in the Dem party itself and we actually had a reasonable opposition that weren't evil incarnate. The good news is there have been quite a few new progressives and socialists elected so when congress begins the conservative side will have to contend with that competition for votes. Schumer needs to take a flying leap and be replaced by someone with a spine, as well.
I wish people weren't so terrible, and racists didn't have power in the electorate at any level.
+1
zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
I think in spite of tom foolery we might prevail in AZ.
I am less optimistic about FL, but that would be a tremendous Coup as well. 52 48 is reasonable given the horrid situation that the Dems were in.
Posts
Oh, it's not just Florida.
Though Florida is unique and special at it.
As thousands waited for hours in line, hundreds of operational voting machines were sequestered from use in Atlanta without explanation
https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/georgia-officials-kept-hundreds-of-voting-machines-locked-in-warehouses-on-election-day/?fbclid=IwAR2Cx0YOGF8dHsUkRfLolynfMRteCBZNmphaoZkcbeA3-iybLzgRdXWHHso
Republican candidate Brian Kemp was the head of the state’s election commission, and only stepped down from that post today to “begin transition into the role of governor,” a position he has not been declared winner of yet.
Yeah, the Buttery Males/Voter ID crowd can go fuck themselves after this
*heavy breathing*
^ LA Times Reporter
Looks like my district may be getting the Not So Fast treatment too. It hadn't been officially called, but this is the most optimistic take I've seen for Cisneros (D).
Broward is going 2:1 Nelson, but he's down 17k. They would need to have 51k ballots left (+ whatever the apparent overlook rate is) to carry him. That would put them around 65% turnout; which seems high given their peers.
Not unheard of for them, it was 71% in '16, but only 44% in '14. The fact I can't seem convince myself to give up (and just wait) is whats really killing me.
https://www.browardsoe.org/Election-Information/Voter-Statistics/District-Voter-Turnout-Report
1. Fight the runoff slump. The runoff is the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, and retaining voters will be hard, especially since there will likely not be much awareness. Everyone will suffer from this, but the more he can prevent it, the better.
2. A lot of McDaniel's supporters won't be coming home to Hyde-Smith -- either diehard conservatives who remain unsatisfied, or generally unmotivated to come out with no national election. Espy can boost this by highlighting her history as a Democratic elected politician; in 2007, she defeated a Republican to hold her seat, and may also have done in 1999 (can't find any records of the race, but it's possible.) Emphasizing her being a woman may also keep some people home, as we've seen some conservatives just don't like female politicians.
3. Turn out basically every black voter in the state. Voting is highly racialized in Mississippi: nearly all whites vote Republican. Espy is going to need to get enough black voters to the polls to compensate for Hyde-Smith drawing from the 64% of registered voters who are white.
4. Hammer the health care nail. 40% of MS voters picked it as their top issue over the economy, immigration, and gun policy, and those who did went for Espy 59%, leading Hyde-Smith by thirty-three points.
5. Completely ignore Trump, and generally avoid nationalizing the race. The president is at 61% approval in the state, 40% said they were voting to show him support, and 51% were conservative. Espy has to be a local candidate focused on improving Mississippi or he's sunk.
Let's say that 30% of general election voters don't go for the runoff, as a baseline, but Espy manages to stem his at 20%. That leaves Hyde-Smith at 260k, Espy at 288k, McDaniel's supporters at 100k, and Bartee's at 9k. Call it 30% of McDaniel's supporters who won't vote for Hyde-Smith, for whatever reason, and give her the rest: 58k gives Hyde-Smith 318k to to Espy's 297k. Pumping black turnout might just provide another 20k votes and change.
Now, I am not an expert on Mississippi politics, and I may have been too generous with giving Espy 10% less loss in the runoff and Hyde-Smith 56% of McDaniel's post-runoff support, but all this seems at least somewhat doable.
Mississippi native here. You're not wrong, it's very doable. MS is going blue in my lifetime, it's just a matter of whether it's sooner or later.
A friend on Facebook captioned this: "See? Immigrants ARE ruining Texas!"
The AZ GOP has filed a lawsuit suing the state because these mail-in/absentee ballot signatures were being validated now-ish instead of before the election. Not really something that has any merit. They just know that there is a strong likelihood that the majority of the ~200k ballots are in the Dems favor and are trying to suppress those votes.
I've been sensing a common theme this election.
If you read the actual quotes from the Reps on this, it's so fucking sea-lioning it's ridiculous.
I can’t even try to imagine what their point is
“We want these votes invalidated because they might hurt us if counted.”
Right?
Bad optics and bullshit pettiness aside, I don’t get this. The race is going to a recount. Those votes are going to be counted regardless of they’re against his favor or not.
I think Washington State ballots look largely similar.
The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
Steam: Korvalain
Jesus.
Do we really expect him to believe that one of the largest, leftest counties in Florida would have turned out to vote against him in numbers consistent with previous years?
Outrageous!
i believe this was the exact reasoning that won bush v gore.
Everyone knows you stop counting votes at 11:59:59 on election night. None of the votes you couldn’t get to before then matter.
Unless the Democrat was ahead.
"We didn't quite manage to cheat enough before the election, so we're gonna fix that right now."
(me, near the end of last thread)
??? What is the logic here???
There aren't proper word combinations in English to describe how much I despise this asshole.
pa did flip 4 seats with a new map since that point to their very partial credit.
Yes we need to end gerrymandering
Fuck no we don’t need to kowtow to deep red bigots and dilute our progressive branding to try to win over people who will never vote in good faith
“You’d do better if you were a lot shittier” is not a logic or a brand I’m willing to tolerate.
Not gonna lie, it took me doing a second pass on it for me to find where to vote for Cantwell.
Yeah nah fuck that "cross the aisle" shit.
Our position is all people should be treated as people.
That is not a stance I'm willing to abdicate.
and they keep complaining about our generation being the ones requiring instant gratification.
assholes.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
I wish I could agree with you on holding that line, because you're right - crossing the aisle for anything like people being treated humanely is something which shouldn't have to be bargained for. The problem is, the party has its own conservative division, and the asshole Joe Manchin seems to be positioning himself into being Liebermann 2.0., and there are probably others from red states doing the same. With bipartisanship with the GOP becoming less viable as they grow more unhinged and radicalised the Dems will still need to compromise with assholes, especially with the White House being held by the GOP for the next few years.
I truly wish politics weren't such a dumpster fire we could ignore this obstacle, both in the Dem party itself and we actually had a reasonable opposition that weren't evil incarnate. The good news is there have been quite a few new progressives and socialists elected so when congress begins the conservative side will have to contend with that competition for votes. Schumer needs to take a flying leap and be replaced by someone with a spine, as well.
I wish people weren't so terrible, and racists didn't have power in the electorate at any level.
I am less optimistic about FL, but that would be a tremendous Coup as well. 52 48 is reasonable given the horrid situation that the Dems were in.