Woops, I counted 22 invalid votes in this batch, better make them official! See this is the kind of crap that gives credence to even the most outlandish statements from Scott. This woman has a spotty track record, defied court orders and add this to boot. How she is in charge of elections is baffling. https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article221478875.html
It seems that Snipes is bad at her job. We can absolutely talk about changing vote counting procedures for next time. That's an excellent idea.
In the meantime, we have a bunch of votes sitting here. We kinda need to figure out what to do with them! If there are 200 valid votes mixed with 20 invalid ones, it seems we have two choices: one, we ignore them all, throwing off the totals by 200 votes; or two, we count them all, throwing off the totals by 20 votes.
We should find some sort of statistics expert to help us determine which of those numbers is bigger.
Now, if there was reason to believe all of those 20 votes were deliberate fraud, you might have a good case for tossing the whole batch, because you would be introducing a known systematic bias. But most likely, the invalid votes are random fuckups that wouldn't introduce any systematic bias.
But this is all irrelevant, because the only reason Republicans want to ignore these votes is because they come from a democratic leaning area.
We should count every vote, and contact anyone who has a signature mismatch to make sure it isn't fraudulent. There is plenty of time before we have to sweat in Governor Al Gore.
This site, which was updated shortly before noon on the 10th, and appears to be run by the state of Georgia, has 1,975,162 for Kemp, to 1,912,383 for Abrams and 37,113 for Metz. That puts Kemp at 50.33%, and if there were another 25,647 votes solely for Abrams or Metz, he would be one vote short of 50%.
CBS, last updated supposedly at 5 the same day but appears to reset that time whether or not there is actual news, has 1,975,792 for Kemp, to 1,917,027 for Abrams and 37,149 for Metz. Kemp is at 50.27%, and the net gain for not-Kemp needs to be 21,617.
That's a difference of 4,030 votes needed for 5,310 counted. If that ratio holds, and there's no evidence I can see to conclude anything at all, Abrams needs another 29,020 votes to keep Kemp one vote under 50%. That's a higher number than I've seen anyone estimate so far, unfortunately, and I think those were made for a set of counts several batches of votes ago.
I was assuming that the batch of counted votes in question was 200 valid votes mixed with 22 invalid, but there was no way to tell which was which. Like, the ballots were separated from their signatures, or whatever.
Do we actually know which are the 22? Why not just toss those? What the fuck is the issue here?
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
I was assuming that the batch of counted votes in question was 200 valid votes mixed with 22 invalid, but there was no way to tell which was which. Like, the ballots were separated from their signatures, or whatever.
Do we actually know which are the 22? Why not just toss those? What the fuck is the issue here?
That the other 200 ballots are still being counted.
According to the article, Snipes took the ballots out of their envelopes and then got the piles mixed up, so she doesn't know which ones are part of the invalid 10%, and there's no way anyone else could know. There's also no indication of how carefully the envelopes were judged invalid, and certain people *cough Shelby County* have this odd tendency to mark ballots invalid at a higher rate when there are indications that they're not from white wealthy people.
The point is this woman and her predecessor have broken the law and violated election rules/laws numerous times, either out of gross incompetence or maliciousness. Palm Beach County has the same problem, with the election official ignoring rules and filling out new ballots for voters without following the rules. When you throw chain of custody issues, wanton disregard for transparency and outright toxic behavior, I'm more inclined to side with Scott on this. I don't give a flying leap who appointed who, the responsibility lies with the county chief.
The point is this woman and her predecessor have broken the law and violated election rules/laws numerous times, either out of gross incompetence or maliciousness. Palm Beach County has the same problem, with the election official ignoring rules and filling out new ballots for voters without following the rules. When you throw chain of custody issues, wanton disregard for transparency and outright toxic behavior, I'm more inclined to side with Scott on this. I don't give a flying leap who appointed who, the responsibility lies with the county chief.
The point is this woman and her predecessor have broken the law and violated election rules/laws numerous times, either out of gross incompetence or maliciousness. Palm Beach County has the same problem, with the election official ignoring rules and filling out new ballots for voters without following the rules. When you throw chain of custody issues, wanton disregard for transparency and outright toxic behavior, I'm more inclined to side with Scott on this. I don't give a flying leap who appointed who, the responsibility lies with the county chief.
The point is this woman and her predecessor have broken the law and violated election rules/laws numerous times, either out of gross incompetence or maliciousness. Palm Beach County has the same problem, with the election official ignoring rules and filling out new ballots for voters without following the rules. When you throw chain of custody issues, wanton disregard for transparency and outright toxic behavior, I'm more inclined to side with Scott on this. I don't give a flying leap who appointed who, the responsibility lies with the county chief.
Brenda Snipes is incompetent, but you don't throw out tens of thousands of votes because of that. Republicans had no problems with her incompetence before it started affecting them.
@grumblethorn what exactly are you getting at? Yeah she should be removed for a couple of different reasons. I don't think you will find people who disagree with that.
I'm assuming the preferred Republican course of action here is to throw out all of the Broward votes, but leave Snipes in place. That way, they get to throw out Broward votes next time, too! Win-win!
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
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HakkekageSpace Whore Academysumma cum laudeRegistered Userregular
Wow an incompetent elections officer with a long and storied history of incompetence, I wonder what corrupt partisan hack put her in that position to underhandedly throw the counts to Democrats--
Republican Gov. Jeb Bush asked Snipes to serve as Supervisor of Elections in Broward County – Florida's second-most populous county – nearly 15 years ago.
oh. well people make mistakes. Now that she's been in office for a while screwing things up all the time I'm sure the next captain of the USS Florida, for the good of the crew, made efforts to relieve the feckless supervisor of her duties as any good executive officer would do--oh, Governor Scott didn't do anything like that? Not a problem in his other elections? oh--
If design were a major element, Elias said, then ballots counted in Broward County since Tuesday would have similarly discrepancies. But Elias says as he observes election returns, the most recently counted ballots don’t show a significant deficit in Senate votes.
That leads Elias to believe the issue had to do with machine calibration. The devices counting votes must be carefully set to count light marks for votes but not be so sensitive to pick up stray marks as overvotes.
Machines across the state will be recalibrated before the recount, which most counties expect to start Sunday. That should lead more votes cast for U.S. Senate.
Based on where there seem to be a high number of undervotes, Elias expects gains for Nelson.
But even if the machines don’t pick up all potential votes, Elias expects a hand recount will find more. State law requires a manual recount if the vote margin remains within 0.25 percent.
“The human eye can make judgments on voter intent that machines can’t,” Elias said.
If a voter marked a bubble with an ‘X’ or circled a choice, then a machine likely won’t count that. But a canvassing board will put that vote into totals.
If the undercount stopped happening with later votes it probably wasn't ballot design and Nelson should be favored
Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.
No matter where you go...there you are. ~ Buckaroo Banzai
Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.
The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.
Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.
The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.
I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.
Getting a majority of people to vote occurs less frequently than once a century? That is the saddest thing.
Highest midterm turnout, remember that the last election was our ridiculous bonus election designed to create decision fatigue and benefit wealthy landowners over less frequently voting smallholders.
Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.
The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.
I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.
I guess that'll be 2020
They don't really need to at this point. Once you've poisoned the well, the well stays poisoned.
Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.
The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.
I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.
I guess that'll be 2020
They don't really need to at this point. Once you've poisoned the well, the well stays poisoned.
Also I imagine a not insignificant portion of our intelligence agencies are actively watching for that kind of shit from now on
Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.
The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.
I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.
I guess that'll be 2020
They don't really need to at this point. Once you've poisoned the well, the well stays poisoned.
IIRC there were FBI, CIA etc reports that the Russians were in motion for future election meddling, so don't count them out completely yet.
If design were a major element, Elias said, then ballots counted in Broward County since Tuesday would have similarly discrepancies. But Elias says as he observes election returns, the most recently counted ballots don’t show a significant deficit in Senate votes.
That leads Elias to believe the issue had to do with machine calibration. The devices counting votes must be carefully set to count light marks for votes but not be so sensitive to pick up stray marks as overvotes.
Machines across the state will be recalibrated before the recount, which most counties expect to start Sunday. That should lead more votes cast for U.S. Senate.
Based on where there seem to be a high number of undervotes, Elias expects gains for Nelson.
But even if the machines don’t pick up all potential votes, Elias expects a hand recount will find more. State law requires a manual recount if the vote margin remains within 0.25 percent.
“The human eye can make judgments on voter intent that machines can’t,” Elias said.
If a voter marked a bubble with an ‘X’ or circled a choice, then a machine likely won’t count that. But a canvassing board will put that vote into totals.
If the undercount stopped happening with later votes it probably wasn't ballot design and Nelson should be favored
Can I just say, as an Australian, how batshit crazy it is that America accepts any of these explanations at all?
Like holy fucking christ: set aside the fact we don't do machine counts here, if someone tried to introduce them the existence of this statement would kill them flat dead immediately.
electricitylikesme on
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jungleroomxIt's never too many graves, it's always not enough shovelsRegistered Userregular
If design were a major element, Elias said, then ballots counted in Broward County since Tuesday would have similarly discrepancies. But Elias says as he observes election returns, the most recently counted ballots don’t show a significant deficit in Senate votes.
That leads Elias to believe the issue had to do with machine calibration. The devices counting votes must be carefully set to count light marks for votes but not be so sensitive to pick up stray marks as overvotes.
Machines across the state will be recalibrated before the recount, which most counties expect to start Sunday. That should lead more votes cast for U.S. Senate.
Based on where there seem to be a high number of undervotes, Elias expects gains for Nelson.
But even if the machines don’t pick up all potential votes, Elias expects a hand recount will find more. State law requires a manual recount if the vote margin remains within 0.25 percent.
“The human eye can make judgments on voter intent that machines can’t,” Elias said.
If a voter marked a bubble with an ‘X’ or circled a choice, then a machine likely won’t count that. But a canvassing board will put that vote into totals.
If the undercount stopped happening with later votes it probably wasn't ballot design and Nelson should be favored
Can I just say, as an Australian, how batshit crazy it is that America accepts any of these explanations at all?
Like holy fucking christ: set aside the fact we don't do machine counts here, if someone tried to introduce them the existence of this statement would kill them flat dead immediately.
I know very few people do who accept it.
But any attempt to get rid of them is immediately squashed as a partisan issue and nobody is in danger of losing their elected position because of it.
+6
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.
The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.
I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.
I guess that'll be 2020
They don't really need to at this point. Once you've poisoned the well, the well stays poisoned.
IIRC there were FBI, CIA etc reports that the Russians were in motion for future election meddling, so don't count them out completely yet.
Tracking voter turnout to what was going on and what laws were like is pretty interesting. For instance mid terms, by some measures, had better voter turnout than presidential elections in the first couple years of the Constitution.
Governor-elect Kelly in Kansas should also be included here.
No real unifying theme there other than charisma = good. Though I've never really heard anyone say that about Wolf. Being a MI/PA/WI Dem with people horrified at what they did was a pretty good strategy this cycle.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Posts
They should track who the invalidated ballots voted for too and check for shenanigans.
Nobody does.
We should count every vote, and contact anyone who has a signature mismatch to make sure it isn't fraudulent. There is plenty of time before we have to sweat in Governor Al Gore.
CBS, last updated supposedly at 5 the same day but appears to reset that time whether or not there is actual news, has 1,975,792 for Kemp, to 1,917,027 for Abrams and 37,149 for Metz. Kemp is at 50.27%, and the net gain for not-Kemp needs to be 21,617.
That's a difference of 4,030 votes needed for 5,310 counted. If that ratio holds, and there's no evidence I can see to conclude anything at all, Abrams needs another 29,020 votes to keep Kemp one vote under 50%. That's a higher number than I've seen anyone estimate so far, unfortunately, and I think those were made for a set of counts several batches of votes ago.
Do we actually know which are the 22? Why not just toss those? What the fuck is the issue here?
That the other 200 ballots are still being counted.
https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/politics/elections/who-is-brenda-snipes-the-broward-county-supervisor-of-elections/67-612946611
Cool. Fire her if you want, by whatever mechanisms that are in place for that.
Votes still count.
It's not the voters fault she's incompetent. Their democratic rights should not be violated because of it.
Brenda Snipes is incompetent, but you don't throw out tens of thousands of votes because of that. Republicans had no problems with her incompetence before it started affecting them.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
Should transfer Florida's statehood to Puerto Rico and let them sort this thing out for a few years.
oh. well people make mistakes. Now that she's been in office for a while screwing things up all the time I'm sure the next captain of the USS Florida, for the good of the crew, made efforts to relieve the feckless supervisor of her duties as any good executive officer would do--oh, Governor Scott didn't do anything like that? Not a problem in his other elections? oh--
NNID: Hakkekage
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Apparently the Kremlin didn't spring for the extended warranty or Geek Squad support contract. Here's hoping the next house can find the receipts and return him to Customer Service/jail.
~ Buckaroo Banzai
Highest midterm turnout since 1914.
The whole election didn’t have the mysteriously appearing fake news that turned out to be Russian that we got in the last election. There was some “fake news” eg the caravan of migrants being hardened criminals rather than refugees, but the source was very clearly American. Guess Putin has lost interest.
Getting a majority of people to vote occurs less frequently than once a century? That is the saddest thing.
I'm very surprised they didn't look at the very obvious turn to blue and decide to fuck with things to benefit the Democrats so that Trump could have a legitimate reason to whine about legitimacy.
I guess that'll be 2020
Highest midterm turnout, remember that the last election was our ridiculous bonus election designed to create decision fatigue and benefit wealthy landowners over less frequently voting smallholders.
They don't really need to at this point. Once you've poisoned the well, the well stays poisoned.
Trump is an undeniably inspiring figure
Also I imagine a not insignificant portion of our intelligence agencies are actively watching for that kind of shit from now on
Women and people 18-20 couldn't vote in 1914. Especially with the 18-20 block, who are the least reliable voters, that's gonna skew the stats.
IIRC there were FBI, CIA etc reports that the Russians were in motion for future election meddling, so don't count them out completely yet.
That's getting close to number 40, right?
Can I just say, as an Australian, how batshit crazy it is that America accepts any of these explanations at all?
Like holy fucking christ: set aside the fact we don't do machine counts here, if someone tried to introduce them the existence of this statement would kill them flat dead immediately.
I know very few people do who accept it.
But any attempt to get rid of them is immediately squashed as a partisan issue and nobody is in danger of losing their elected position because of it.
Yeah, the Russians were practicing for 2020
Before womens suffrage
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
World War 1's first year.
Editor of the Cook Political Report
Governor-elect Kelly in Kansas should also be included here.
No real unifying theme there other than charisma = good. Though I've never really heard anyone say that about Wolf. Being a MI/PA/WI Dem with people horrified at what they did was a pretty good strategy this cycle.