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Like a centipede waiting for the other shoe to drop in [The Economy] thread
silence1186
Character shields down!As a wingmanRegistered User regular
Character shields down!As a wingmanRegistered User regular
silence1186 wrote: »So tangential to many discussions I've been following in D&D (taxes, the budget, the Russia investigation) have been posts about the state of the economy, and the potential for an economic downturn in the very near future. Rather than have off-topic discussions in those threads, I feel like there's enough meat for a discussion about the current US economy, the signs of a potential recession, how such a recession could affect the world economy, and what the political ramifications such a downturn might cause.
I wrote those words almost a year ago, and honestly, I figured we'd have had some kind of economic crisis that would precipitate a sudden and painful downturn in the economy. Look at who's at the helm, after all. There are still worrying signs, but I feel like we've been waiting for the shoe to drop for quite some time.
The last economic crisis was ~10 years ago, and conventional wisdom says the boom and bust cycle is also ~10 years, so in that sense we're "due" for one. Conventional wisdom doesn't always hold. For example, unemployment is historically low (cite), but there's no upward pressure on wage growth (cite). @AresProphet had an effort post about it.
In the last year Mr. Trump decided since Trade Wars are the easiest thing in the world to win, he would go ahead and start them with basically the entire world. This has led to a tit for tat escalation with China, with no signs of either side backing down. For the last few quarters, companies have been stockpiling materials in anticipation of increased costs (leading to deceptively high economic growth), but this could have catastrophic long term consequences for the US. For example, Chinese buyers are shifting away from US soybeans, and even if a future president ends the tariffs, there's no guarantee they'll ever come back to US markets.
Also worrying is the impending no-deal Brexit. Although the finer points can be discussed in the relevant thread, if it goes forward as is it promises to be a disastrous exogenous shock to the global economy.
There's lots going on, and plenty of in depth, high level discussion to be had, so be excellent to each other, and let's watch and see what happens to the economy this year.
Last thread.
Link to @ronya 's last excellent Economy thread.
Official cross contamination of off-topic posting links:
Talk about the budget here
Talk about the tax reform here
N.B. Although its effects can be considered with regard to The Economy, Get into the weeds about Brexit here.
Talk about anything Trump-related in one of the myriad of threads about him
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I was speaking with a stock broker about this, but he I and both agreed that the classic phrase, a bull market climbs a wall of worry, is usually a pretty accurate strategy. Most of his clients are hedging their bets a ton, waiting for that inevitable downturn.
More and more I'm having a hard time believing there'll be large crash. Everyone has too much in cash saved up. Any fall is going to be softened by people looking for deals.
....Consumers?
*thousand yard stare*
These don't strike as flashing red, but they also aren't particularly amazing either.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCI
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCINONFINLEVERAGE
Especially since when something changes it changes fast.
Consumers are doing what they always do. Spending their entire paychecks.
*vibrates so hard he levitates off his chair*
Except that leverage rates are rising. Not drastically, but still. The next recession may not be a balance sheet one, like '07-'09 but if it's more akin to the 2000's dot com bust that's going to hurt for a long time, even if it's shallow.
I mean, that's the stock buybacks that have been going on all year, CEOs using company money to prop up their stock price while cashing out themselves. I read an article recently about how you shouldn't worry about the recent correction because companies were blocked from buybacks during the earning announcements, but now that that's over they can get right back to propping their prices up.
Makes me wonder how this year would have looked without everyone actively manipulating their stock price, and what happens when that cash flow turns off/CEOs feel they have dumped enough shares.
In a way that HBO is threatening to sue.
The tweet in question has been linked in other threads, though this is the first I've heard that HBO is responding.
it'd be like trademarking "it's summer now" or "hi, how are you?"
When you blatantly copy the font and the formatting as well and it is an obvious reference... well it might be fair use parody but since the Trump admin is a parody of itself maybe that double negatives into trademark infringement who knows.
oh I didn't know about the font and formatting!
The idea that anyone could actually trademark the phrase "winter is coming" is absurd.
Penny Arcade is a commercial entity. The Presidency is not, even with Trump grifting for all he's worth, and so generally has more leeway in fair use.
Even if it's nothing else, make it a rebuke against the President for mocking something that's almost definitely going to hurt people.
Didn't like when McCain did the "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran" thing either. A politician making light of something that is going to physically or financially harm people, most likely people who did nothing wrong and are just collateral damage in the global "swinging of dicks"*, is disgusting.
So go after him because of that.
* I understand that sometimes military or economic sanctions are necessary. But it needs to be understood it's people who are least powerful and least responsible in that area that are often most hurt by it.
As an aside, to claim a parody fair use exemption you have to meet certain criteria. link.
Basically unless it is absolutely clear that HBO is not endorsing Trump then Trump can be liable for trademark dilution.
And TWO of the three families that ascended the throne, were fine with banging other family members.
A lot of the reason I decided to share this though is because this is the third time in as many weeks that I've seen major publications - usually the conservative-leaning or financial-blowing types - finally arguing that capitalism is a broken-as-shit system. And while it's being discussed in the meta, Bloomberg was kind enough to bring data to the table with specific US law citations. And charts!
Eh. Counter-cyclical stimulus is a thing.
Long term stimulus feels like it's pushing the definition of stimulus into uselessness. That feels like it bleeds into general economic strategy, which it feels like the US (and UK) don't really have anymore.
Edit: Of course as soon as I hit post I realize that stuff like Food Stamps is sorta long term in that it is established and maintained all the time but automatically scales upwards to act counter-cyclically.
Oh man, this is a great opinion piece.
Safety net programs are long term and counter-cyclical but aren't generally what's meant by economic stimulus. Which, is basically stuff like ARRA. Which is best when governments allow themselves to take a long view due to their immortality.
Fixing a bridge is basically good in and of itself since, you know, bridge collapses are bad. Putting a contract out to bid when the economy is on fire likely means there is a supply constraint and DOT is crowding out other investments, and paying a premium to do so. If demand has collapsed, however, you are no longer crowding out funds but putting what would otherwise be excess capacity to work. Similar for lots of other stuff too. Digitizing 1890's court decisions, say. Expand in the bust, but cut/retrench in the expansion to prepare for the inevitable next bust. &c. Republicans generally want to go the other way 'round. Cut in the boom and then cut even harder in the bust.
Maybe if he doesn't want all that attention he shouldn't dress like that.
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I can't even right a backhanded piece of cruelty about trump because I hate him so much. Still, consider this post to have included a cruel and subtle burn about blaming the victim!
I mean Obama was presidentially harrassed for years and the stock market did great. Maybe Trump should just think of the team and try to enjoy it. Lots of presidents would be flattered.
Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats