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Like a centipede waiting for the other shoe to drop in [The Economy] thread

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Posts

  • MortiousMortious The Nightmare Begins Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    Cog wrote: »
    *squints*

    Actual dorrito bags are a bit bigger. Mostly air, but bigger.

    Move to New Zealand
    It’s not a very important country most of the time
    http://steamcommunity.com/id/mortious
  • So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    Brand info available to consumers is off topic

    Why do I need to keep repeating myself

  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    edited December 2018
    I mean a little more on topic... holy shit the dow lost damn near 800 points (3.06%) today and it lost the lowest percentage among the other major indexes. S&P lost 3.16%, nasdaq lost 3.8! Russell 2000 lost 4.39% which seems real bad.

    I know the indexes aren't necessarily good belweathers but holy shit that's a bad look there.

    NYSE composite was only down 2.78, but that's not really saying much.

    Sleep on
  • QanamilQanamil x Registered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    I mean a little more on topic... holy shit the dow lost damn near 800 points (3.06%) today and it lost the lowest percentage among the other major indexes. S&P lost 3.16%, nasdaq lost 3.8! Russell 2000 lost 4.39% which seems real bad.

    I know the indexes aren't necessarily good belweathers but holy shit that's a bad look there.

    Was about to bring this up as well in the same on-topic sense.

    The Times insinuates it's due to Trump being unable to keep to one position from day to day, tweeting this morning a message that seemed at odds with the at-G20-made agreement between China and the US: "...I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN"

    So yeah, the moron once again directly negatively impacts the stock market.

    The Times article goes further saying what is happening, the flattening of the yield curve, is a good predictor of recessions. "The yield curve — the difference between the interest rates on short- and long-term Treasury bonds — is at its narrowest level since 2007, in what some see as an ominous sign for the economy."

  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit ceterum censeoRegistered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    I mean a little more on topic... holy shit the dow lost damn near 800 points (3.06%) today and it lost the lowest percentage among the other major indexes. S&P lost 3.16%, nasdaq lost 3.8! Russell 2000 lost 4.39% which seems real bad.

    I know the indexes aren't necessarily good belweathers but holy shit that's a bad look there.

    NYSE composite was only down 2.78, but that's not really saying much.

    Only 2.78%

    Jesus

    fuck gendered marketing
  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Trump: We called a truce on tariffs with China related to cars.
    Market: YAY TARIFFS OVER WHEEE! +600
    Journalists: Uh.... no one can confirm this, the White House doesn't know what he's talking about, China doesn't know what he's talking about.
    Market: ITS A TRAP! AAAAAHHHHH!!! -800

    This is a rational way to live.

  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    I mean its only down 680 points since january 2nd, that's not like bad or anything right?

  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    Wall Street is finally coming to realize the tariffs aren't a negotiating tactic but the end game. The 4.4% drop in the Russell 2000 is a sign the market sees this as disastrous for small businesses.

  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    edited December 2018
    That said, though, it's important not to overstate the size of today's drop. It is indeed the 4th-biggest one-day point drop in the Dow ever; but it's not even close to making the top 20 in terms of one-day percentage drops.

    Hedgethorn on
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Hedgethorn wrote: »
    Wall Street is finally coming to realize the tariffs aren't a negotiating tactic but the end game. The 4.4% drop in the Russell 2000 is a sign the market sees this as disastrous for small businesses.

    I was going to say the drastic drop in the Russell seems like a bit more of an indicator than the other indexes because of how broad the Russell 2000 seemingly is.

  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    The DJIA is stupid and we shouldn't be paying attention to it anyway. Cap-weighted index or GTFO.

  • HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    edited December 2018
    Sleep wrote: »
    Hedgethorn wrote: »
    Wall Street is finally coming to realize the tariffs aren't a negotiating tactic but the end game. The 4.4% drop in the Russell 2000 is a sign the market sees this as disastrous for small businesses.

    I was going to say the drastic drop in the Russell seems like a bit more of an indicator than the other indexes because of how broad the Russell 2000 seemingly is.

    There's truth to that. But I think the key fact is that the Russell 2000 is all small-cap, largely domestic, stocks . (If I'm not mistaken, I think Etsy (the online craft resale site) is the biggest company on the index, with WWE wrestling and Planet Fitness gyms also in the top 10.) There are very few if any multi-nationals on the list, so the index's performance is almost entirely based on prospects for the domestic economy, as opposed to being partly reliant on the broader worldwide economy as the Dow and S&P are.

    Hedgethorn on
  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit ceterum censeoRegistered User regular
    enc0re wrote: »
    The DJIA is stupid and we shouldn't be paying attention to it anyway. Cap-weighted index or GTFO.

    I mean the entire market is pretty much down right now so like

    Yknow

    Not great

    This market volatility is fucking awful

    fuck gendered marketing
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    .
    Hedgethorn wrote: »
    That said, though, it's important not to overstate the size of today's drop. It is indeed the 4th-biggest one-day point drop in the Dow ever; but it's not even close to making the top 20 in terms of one-day percentage drops.

    The dow is still 100 points up since january 2nd. Up around 840 points since last December 5th.

  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    The DJIA is stupid and we shouldn't be paying attention to it anyway. Cap-weighted index or GTFO.

    I mean the entire market is pretty much down right now so like

    Yknow

    Not great

    This market volatility is fucking awful

    Yeah the S&P 500 (which is the superior metric) is basically where it was at start of the year and a whole 2.6% up from where it was this time last year

    PSN: idontworkhere582 | CFN: idontworkhere | Steam: lordbutters | Amazon Wishlist
  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    edited December 2018
    Sleep wrote: »
    I mean its only down 680 points since january 2nd, that's not like bad or anything right?

    It is indeed bad. The DIJA should be up at least 3% yoy. 7% yoy is pretty typical (or at least was) and we're below what i think long term GDP ought to be* so growth ought to be higher.

    So we're short like 1300 points of where we need to be 2500 points of where we should be.

    Edit: Though cherry picking dates probably isnt going to help things. Flat is still bad

    Goumindong on
    wbBv3fj.png
  • HefflingHeffling No Pic EverRegistered User regular
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    They are not.

  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. normal (not weird)Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    My man, its their system, it cant work against them.

    wq09t4opzrlc.jpg
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    If you think they are actually going to suffer the consequences, rather than transfer them down the chain to us you're sorely mistaken.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    The market's been crazy volatile since basically the October Earnings Reports, just about every forward looking indicator is not exactly great, and again 2019 has Brexit slow walking behind the global economy with a...cricket bat? I dunno, some properly British blunt instrument. Hell, I remember reading somewhere that fully 14% of employees are going to get a 0% raise for year end COLA &c. which...for unemployment being around 4% that number should be something like half that amount.

    Everything is jittery and there's really no good reason to say that's wrong despite what should be a strong widespread recovery/expansion. It's crazy.

  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    It basically seems like everyone's trying to get a bull market, but everything's just beating the shit out of them for trying. Like the slightest bit of good news results in a massive jump that bleeds off a business day or two later because everyone remembers "oh wait everything is looking to be garbage right now". Like everyone hears 1 good thing, forgets about all the bad shit happening, and just sets off the good times fireworks, and when all the explosions finish they look past the one little point of good news and remember where we actually are.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Qanamil wrote: »
    Was about to bring this up as well in the same on-topic sense.

    The Times insinuates it's due to Trump being unable to keep to one position from day to day, tweeting this morning: "...I am a Tariff Man.

    Goddamnit, do not make a shit cover of The Beatles. Revolver is a good album.

  • Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    The other issue is that yesterday the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted between the 3- and 5-year bonds. For those unfamiliar, this means the yield on a 5-year bond is lower than that of a 3-year, which is an abnormal situation. Analysts generally watch for an inversion between the 2- and 10-year bonds, which has preceded every recession in the U.S. since World War II. That's the direction we appear to be headed in at the moment, with the expectation that the 2- and 10- will invert before the end of the year, or early into next year.



    Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    Not the point. The index’s are indicative of the general economy (and it’s expected path). When they go down poor people get hurt just as much as rich people (more usually) because companies are contracting and expect to do less business in the future.

    Stock markets can also go down because of good things for labor (they would go down if you had to pay labor more) but “ nothing happens stock markets going down” is generally a bad thing

    wbBv3fj.png
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    Elldren wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    The DJIA is stupid and we shouldn't be paying attention to it anyway. Cap-weighted index or GTFO.

    I mean the entire market is pretty much down right now so like

    Yknow

    Not great

    This market volatility is fucking awful

    I try to be mindful that with the widespread destruction of pensions in favor of defined contribution plans, there is many a retire living of stock returns. I can think of colleagues that retired this past year and I hope they have plenty of bonds and annuities cushioning the loss.

    But personally, as someone who is saving for retirement and therefore a net buyer of stocks (I’m about 85/15 stock/fixed income), I’m pretty stoked about the fall in prices.

  • QuidQuid Definitely not a banana Registered User regular
    enc0re wrote: »
    Elldren wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    The DJIA is stupid and we shouldn't be paying attention to it anyway. Cap-weighted index or GTFO.

    I mean the entire market is pretty much down right now so like

    Yknow

    Not great

    This market volatility is fucking awful

    I try to be mindful that with the widespread destruction of pensions in favor of defined contribution plans, there is many a retire living of stock returns. I can think of colleagues that retired this past year and I hope they have plenty of bonds and annuities cushioning the loss.

    But personally, as someone who is saving for retirement and therefore a net buyer of stocks (I’m about 85/15 stock/fixed income), I’m pretty stoked about the fall in prices.

    Any retirement plan worth its salt encourages the owner to move towards stuff like government bonds as time goes on.

  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    Quid wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    Elldren wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    The DJIA is stupid and we shouldn't be paying attention to it anyway. Cap-weighted index or GTFO.

    I mean the entire market is pretty much down right now so like

    Yknow

    Not great

    This market volatility is fucking awful

    I try to be mindful that with the widespread destruction of pensions in favor of defined contribution plans, there is many a retire living of stock returns. I can think of colleagues that retired this past year and I hope they have plenty of bonds and annuities cushioning the loss.

    But personally, as someone who is saving for retirement and therefore a net buyer of stocks (I’m about 85/15 stock/fixed income), I’m pretty stoked about the fall in prices.

    Any retirement plan worth its salt encourages the owner to move towards stuff like government bonds as time goes on.

    I hope that’s what they did. But I also think the typical worker isn’t in a position to execute optimal asset allocation glide paths.

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    The market's been crazy volatile since basically the October Earnings Reports, just about every forward looking indicator is not exactly great, and again 2019 has Brexit slow walking behind the global economy with a...cricket bat? I dunno, some properly British blunt instrument. Hell, I remember reading somewhere that fully 14% of employees are going to get a 0% raise for year end COLA &c. which...for unemployment being around 4% that number should be something like half that amount.

    Everything is jittery and there's really no good reason to say that's wrong despite what should be a strong widespread recovery/expansion. It's crazy.

    I think a lot of firms feel like they’re in a Mexican standoff

    Everyone is budgeting for a downturn, and the impacts of that on hiring/wages are going to make it self-fulfilling

  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    Oh hey our market's closed today.

    I hear our bad day was reflected in foreign markets to some extent, I wonder what leaving us low for a day does for those foreign markets.

  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    The debt is mostly an issue talked about to justify cutting benefits, but what the HECK IS WRONG WITH HIM!?

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-on-coming-debt-crisis-i-wont-be-here-when-it-blows-up
    Since the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump’s aides and advisers have tried to convince him of the importance of tackling the national debt.

    Sources close to the president say he has repeatedly shrugged it off, implying that he doesn’t have to worry about the money owed to America’s creditors—currently about $21 trillion—because he won’t be around to shoulder the blame when it becomes even more untenable.

    The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the national debt in the not-too-distant future. In response, Trump noted that the data suggested the debt would reach a critical mass only after his possible second term in office.

    “Yeah, but I won’t be here,” the president bluntly said, according to a source who was in the room when Trump made this comment during discussions on the debt.

  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Just in time for Democrats to take the blame...

  • KhavallKhavall British ColumbiaRegistered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    The debt is mostly an issue talked about to justify cutting benefits, but what the HECK IS WRONG WITH HIM!?

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-on-coming-debt-crisis-i-wont-be-here-when-it-blows-up
    Since the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump’s aides and advisers have tried to convince him of the importance of tackling the national debt.

    Sources close to the president say he has repeatedly shrugged it off, implying that he doesn’t have to worry about the money owed to America’s creditors—currently about $21 trillion—because he won’t be around to shoulder the blame when it becomes even more untenable.

    The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the national debt in the not-too-distant future. In response, Trump noted that the data suggested the debt would reach a critical mass only after his possible second term in office.

    “Yeah, but I won’t be here,” the president bluntly said, according to a source who was in the room when Trump made this comment during discussions on the debt.

    It's just the classic Trump problem - he said the quiet parts out loud.

    Everyone has known for a while that the cycle is:

    GOP fucks up the economy+debt -> Because these things take time to respond, the actual pain doesn't start until the dems take office -> the dems do everything they can to fix the broken shit, but are hamstrung from doing what they want to do because they have to spend so much time putting out fires -> The deficit starts reducing, the budgets start balancing, the economy starts recovering -> by this point the dems have been voted out because "They're bad at the economy" because, again, it all went bad under them, right? -> The GOP comes in and rides a wave of lowered debt and better economy, giving them the illusion of being so good at the economy that they can magically fix things -> The GOP Fucks up the economy+debt.

    The problem isn't Trump saying "Well the dems'll get the blame, we'll look good with money, and who cares if some poor people die or lose their homes?", it's that he's saying it out loud.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Couscous wrote: »
    The debt is mostly an issue talked about to justify cutting benefits, but what the HECK IS WRONG WITH HIM!?

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-on-coming-debt-crisis-i-wont-be-here-when-it-blows-up
    Since the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump’s aides and advisers have tried to convince him of the importance of tackling the national debt.

    Sources close to the president say he has repeatedly shrugged it off, implying that he doesn’t have to worry about the money owed to America’s creditors—currently about $21 trillion—because he won’t be around to shoulder the blame when it becomes even more untenable.

    The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the national debt in the not-too-distant future. In response, Trump noted that the data suggested the debt would reach a critical mass only after his possible second term in office.

    “Yeah, but I won’t be here,” the president bluntly said, according to a source who was in the room when Trump made this comment during discussions on the debt.

    The essence of Trump right there. The only thing that matters is how it effects him.

  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Sleep wrote: »
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    If you think they are actually going to suffer the consequences, rather than transfer them down the chain to us you're sorely mistaken.

    I mean, there are consequences for the rich, but they exist in terms of reduced access to very good things, and existing in a period where you are making acquisitions with the expectations of gains later. For rich people, a recession is like a tough day at the gym, not as fun as relaxing at home with your friends, but the time when you can build value for the future and not exactly a nightmare.

    Poor people suffer in recessions. In disastrous recessions the middle class suffer too. Short of like, the black plague and its effects on Europe, I don't think we've ever had a recession where the rich have actually LOST anything.

    Still, yesterdays correction was the market being reminded (yet again) that Trump is an insane psychopath who cannot be trusted at the tiller. Everyone is desperate to believe that these tariffs are a bluff, to show China we are serious and about to be ended. Everyone knows that that is the smart play here for a 'tough guy' like Trump. The tariffs were a gamble, but the economy has held the line for a bit, and perhaps Trumps personal brand has benefitted from his show of force. Now its time to end them. Everyone knows this. Every small business owner, every big business owner, every union, every teamster and stock broker. Everyone knows that if Trump kills the tariffs now, he can spin it as if the benefits from removing them are a plus, and create a narrative of growth and ease in trade. Everyone knows the tariffs are a job killer, and that by pulling them down Trump can shift some jobs growth around and make it look like his policies created it. China knows this. EVERYONE in the damn world knows this. And so the market sits and waits for Trump to play the only damn move he can possibly make, and reacts like mad whenever he reaches down to make it, before pulling away.

    But he won't make the move because Trump doesn't make plans. He doesn't understand the market. He doesn't understand what he did, what he is doing, and what he can do in the future. He's just taking random actions. The market and government cannot accept that he is just a bull in a china shop, because the President CANNOT be a bull in a china shop. So they have to respond as if this is all some grand scheme of carefully smashing selected plates to increase the value of others. But its not. He's just an idiot destroying things because he can understand that people like to see them get smashed.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
  • SleepSleep Registered User regular
    You get that a ton of the wealthy are actually rooting for an economic slowdown right?

    Like my wife's boss is constantly saying we need a recession just so the RFPs in their industry slow down/stop because they physically can't take all the contracts right now, but can't afford to not have those contracts in 5 years.

    It isn't just that a recession won't hurt them. It is that they have learned they can prosper due to a recession.

  • L Ron HowardL Ron Howard The duck MinnesotaRegistered User regular
    They can run in and buy up everything super cheap, and wait for it to make money for them once everything rebounds.

  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    edited December 2018
    tbloxham wrote: »
    Sleep wrote: »
    Heffling wrote: »
    Oh noes, the rich people are feeling the same pain that everyone else has been feeling.

    If you think they are actually going to suffer the consequences, rather than transfer them down the chain to us you're sorely mistaken.

    I mean, there are consequences for the rich, but they exist in terms of reduced access to very good things, and existing in a period where you are making acquisitions with the expectations of gains later. For rich people, a recession is like a tough day at the gym, not as fun as relaxing at home with your friends, but the time when you can build value for the future and not exactly a nightmare.

    Poor people suffer in recessions. In disastrous recessions the middle class suffer too. Short of like, the black plague and its effects on Europe, I don't think we've ever had a recession where the rich have actually LOST anything.

    Still, yesterdays correction was the market being reminded (yet again) that Trump is an insane psychopath who cannot be trusted at the tiller. Everyone is desperate to believe that these tariffs are a bluff, to show China we are serious and about to be ended. Everyone knows that that is the smart play here for a 'tough guy' like Trump. The tariffs were a gamble, but the economy has held the line for a bit, and perhaps Trumps personal brand has benefitted from his show of force. Now its time to end them. Everyone knows this. Every small business owner, every big business owner, every union, every teamster and stock broker. Everyone knows that if Trump kills the tariffs now, he can spin it as if the benefits from removing them are a plus, and create a narrative of growth and ease in trade. Everyone knows the tariffs are a job killer, and that by pulling them down Trump can shift some jobs growth around and make it look like his policies created it. China knows this. EVERYONE in the damn world knows this. And so the market sits and waits for Trump to play the only damn move he can possibly make, and reacts like mad whenever he reaches down to make it, before pulling away.

    But he won't make the move because Trump doesn't make plans. He doesn't understand the market. He doesn't understand what he did, what he is doing, and what he can do in the future. He's just taking random actions. The market and government cannot accept that he is just a bull in a china shop, because the President CANNOT be a bull in a china shop. So they have to respond as if this is all some grand scheme of carefully smashing selected plates to increase the value of others. But its not. He's just an idiot destroying things because he can understand that people like to see them get smashed.

    The waves and waves of panics at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century cost the rich in the loss of complete control over their workforces' lives (due to increasing worldwide demands for labor laws), their monopolies (anti-trust movements), and friendly authoritarian governments in Europe (due to demands for democratization). The Great Depression ended up costing them a greater loss of control due to the Western adoption of social welfare programs and economic reforms during and after WWII.

    The impact of the Great Depression also cost many wealthy at all levels their lives, incomes (both in war losses and wartime taxes), and businesses due to WWII. Many of the mega-rich came out on top, of course, but even then you have holes in their family trees due to members lost in the war.

    Phillishere on
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    They can run in and buy up everything super cheap, and wait for it to make money for them once everything rebounds.

    Also, they are generally the ones handing out the pink slips, not receiving them.

    Even at the peak of the Great Recession 90% of the labor force was still employed. Millionaires probably made up a larger proportion of those folks.

  • Martini_PhilosopherMartini_Philosopher Registered User regular
    They can run in and buy up everything super cheap, and wait for it to make money for them once everything rebounds.

    Right. It's almost as if they've learned to exacerbate the circumstances instead of buffering them so that they can profit more and not leave much behind.

    All opinions are my own and in no way reflect that of my employer.
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