I didn't sleep very well last night and so I'm very tired; it's driving me insane that there's a joke to be made about the attorney general being called Cox and being found in contempt but it's eluding me.
This spectacle is something I expect to have read in history textbooks. Put forth by The Right Honourable William Smitherton,
15th Earl of Wobberington on the eve of St Crispin's Day.
A day to remember for all you constitutional historians out there.
The cynical side of me thinks this is a delaying tactic.
Apparently they were prolonging the debate to try to whip for the vote on the Grieve amendment that is currently taking place. This amendment would allow parliament to instruct the government what to do in the rather likely event the vote on the Brexit deal fails
A day to remember for all you constitutional historians out there.
The cynical side of me thinks this is a delaying tactic.
Apparently they were prolonging the debate to try to whip for the vote on the Grieve amendment that is currently taking place. This amendment would allow parliament to instruct the government what to do in the rather likely event the vote on the Brexit deal fails
--Let me cancel brexit
-No
--Ok, let me decide what to do in the rather likely event the vote on the Brexit deal fails
-hmmmm ok
Heard that there's 8 hours of debate scheduled on the main bill, but only just starting now, wonder if PMQs will be a bit sparsely attended as people catch up on sleep for round 2 tomorrow afternoon.
This spectacle is something I expect to have read in history textbooks. Put forth by The Right Honourable William Smitherton,
15th Earl of Wobberington on the eve of St Crispin's Day.
Modern politics is a shambles.
Never assume that all our stupid is in the past.
Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Does that mean parliament can vote to Remain?
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SnicketysnickThe Greatest Hype Man inWesterosRegistered Userregular
If it's a choice between that and no deal they might
No deal is not a deal. Its what we do when we drop out of the EU of 29/03/2019 next year and if the ECJ [not the Advocacy General] decides we can unilaterally revoke Article 50
it can only be done if we have a deal between the UK and the EU. And since May's deal will fail in Parliament guess what that means.
Parliament doesn't get to decide what happens because it is up to external actors. And anyway time is pretty much up for another referendum.
Can you smell that Hard Brexit smell?
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ElldrenIs a woman dammitceterum censeoRegistered Userregular
edited December 2018
There currently is a deal between the EU and the UK. It’s called EU membership
That’s what expires next year.
If the article 50 notice is revoked that doesn’t happen, regardless of what has or has not been agreed to in regards to a potential post-leave relationship
Elldren on
fuck gendered marketing
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
If it's a choice between that and no deal they might
No deal is not a deal. Its what we do when we drop out of the EU of 29/03/2019 next year and if the ECJ [not the Advocacy General] decides we can unilaterally revoke Article 50
it can only be done if we have a deal between the UK and the EU. And since May's deal will fail in Parliament guess what that means.
Parliament doesn't get to decide what happens because it is up to external actors. And anyway time is pretty much up for another referendum.
Can you smell that Hard Brexit smell?
There currently is a deal between the EU and the UK. It’s called EU membership
That’s what expires next year.
If the article 50 notice is revoked that doesn’t happen, regardless of what has or has not been agreed to in regards to a potential post-leave relationship
declare that Article 50 TEU allows the unilateral
revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU, until such time as the
withdrawal agreement is formally concluded
That is what I am referring to in regards of a deal. So as you can see it does not apply to EU membership.
Honestly when I take a step back and look at it, I can't help but wonder why we aren't talking about May's resignation and the impending general election. The government has just lost 3 major votes in one day (is that a record?). One of those votes has found the government to be the first ever government in contempt of parliament. How that doesn't automatically get them thrown out (in the same manner as a straight up confidence vote) I have no idea. It also means May completes the double of being in contempt of court (second home secretary ever) and contempt of parliament (first government ever). Her lack of respect for the rules in place makes it clear she's just a tyrant at heart and simply too incompetent to pull it off effectively. Keep in mind that her reported plan at this point is to willingly let the markets crash to provide pressure for her deal.
There currently is a deal between the EU and the UK. It’s called EU membership
That’s what expires next year.
If the article 50 notice is revoked that doesn’t happen, regardless of what has or has not been agreed to in regards to a potential post-leave relationship
declare that Article 50 TEU allows the unilateral
revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU, until such time as the
withdrawal agreement is formally concluded
That is what I am referring to in regards of a deal. So as you can see it does not apply to EU membership.
I read that as Article 50 is unilaterally revocable until the withdrawl agreement is fully agreed and implemented by both parties. Possibly at any point up until it comes into effect.
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ElldrenIs a woman dammitceterum censeoRegistered Userregular
There currently is a deal between the EU and the UK. It’s called EU membership
That’s what expires next year.
If the article 50 notice is revoked that doesn’t happen, regardless of what has or has not been agreed to in regards to a potential post-leave relationship
declare that Article 50 TEU allows the unilateral
revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the EU, until such time as the
withdrawal agreement is formally concluded
That is what I am referring to in regards of a deal. So as you can see it does not apply to EU membership.
That’s not what that says at all
In fact it says the opposite
When the withdrawal agreement is concluded the UK can no longer revoke the article 50 notification
If it's a choice between that and no deal they might
No deal is not a deal. Its what we do when we drop out of the EU of 29/03/2019 next year and if the ECJ [not the Advocacy General] decides we can unilaterally revoke Article 50
it can only be done if we have a deal between the UK and the EU. And since May's deal will fail in Parliament guess what that means.
Parliament doesn't get to decide what happens because it is up to external actors. And anyway time is pretty much up for another referendum.
Can you smell that Hard Brexit smell?
I believe that’s the argument from the government benches yeah.
Someone else could probably rebutt it better but:
1. If May’s deal passes, that’s what we get, and we go on our way, setting up a new trade deal over the next few years.
2. May’s deal gets torpedo’d
2)a) government goes back to the EU, gets some cosmetic changes, and we return to 1)
2)b) Parliament votes down May’s deal 2, electric boogaloo
This leads to all sorts of potential options:
1) The government accepts its all wrong and goes No Deal - seems unlikely, as Parliament won’t vote for that
2) The government goes back to the EU and tries to renegotiate something off-the-shelf in three months (probably something EFTA’y, that would be least effort)
3) Government asks for an extension of Article 50 while it sorts itself out (hmm)
4) No Confidence called, passes(if fails, see 2/3) ; leadership election/general election
Which leads to:
1. Brexiteer wins leadership, wins election - return to the blockage of 1) above, but presumably there’d be a manifesto commitment to something...
2. Labour wins general election; unleashes unicorns for all Brexit (this probably leads us back around to the EFTA option in the short term)
No Deal is pretty much off the table; there’s probably not a majority for anything *but* ‘Not no deal’ ; I suspect if it got down to the 28th of March and we still were staring at ourselves, someone would push the revoke button on A50.
surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
i suspect the labour manifesto will probably have something like:
"we'll negotiate our jobs first (or whatever) brexit and they give the people a say on if we go through with it"
this both gives lip service to brexit and lexit types and lets remainers vote for them with the hope they can at least get to say no later. its probably the best-triangulated option and the one ive heard from several labour pol people
I have to say, Margaret Beckett's speech in Parliament was quite a thing, and I found myself agreeing with pretty much all of it.
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
as i said a while back, the may deal was the best the erg/no deal types could have hoped for. it was the prelude to a full canada style fta if they had wanted it, it just required a bit of confidence in the ability of the government to vaguely manage the border properly and escape the backstop. but of course they know that there arent enough fellow feelers around in british politics to guarantee the outcome at the end of all that that they wanted - not least a labour government - so their only hope was some kind of technical default to no deal
the path to this was just a pr push to make no deal as palatable as possible so that parliament might let it happen.
but sooner or later they were going to run into the problem that they were going to need a parliamentary majority... for something. and they just dont have it. and the fear is beginning to set in that if mays deal gets rejected the best they can hope for is a labour brexit unless they can get a majority option (which they cant)... and that is for many of them even more nightmarish (CUSTOMS UNION? SINGLE MARKET REGULATORY ALIGNMENT? OH NOEY)
of course odd things may happen. one of them is that they might look at the slightly confused public opinion on no deal versus remain and realise the only gamble they have left is a second referendum that includes no deal - and that might be the odd thing we see them ending up collapsing into
I can see the future. The UK will, at the eleventh hour, revoke the Article 50 and come back into the EU keeping their sweetheart deal and without a care for all the work everyone else was doing to prep for Brexit; and then the very next day will start demanding that all the EU institutions and offices that were moved out of the UK be moved back into the country.
I actually wondered if this might happen. If we get down to the wire, and our alternatives are No Deal, the army on street corners, food and medicine shortages and total economic catastrophe, or...not, I suspect there might be a majority in Parliament for reversal. If there's a deal, and I almost want to say any deal, ion the table, it's a lot harder, because we could always have that, and 'respect the referendum result' etc. But if the provided deal is voted down, things might get interesting.
And...yeah, look, I appreciate you'd be tooth grindingly put out, but if that happened, you would not believe the party that would be thrown in our house.
However tempting it would be I can't really blame anyone for not wanting to experience first hand a Mad Max future (except with lovely English weather)...
Do not, my friends, become addicted to sunshine...
I can see the future. The UK will, at the eleventh hour, revoke the Article 50 and come back into the EU keeping their sweetheart deal and without a care for all the work everyone else was doing to prep for Brexit; and then the very next day will start demanding that all the EU institutions and offices that were moved out of the UK be moved back into the country.
I actually wondered if this might happen. If we get down to the wire, and our alternatives are No Deal, the army on street corners, food and medicine shortages and total economic catastrophe, or...not, I suspect there might be a majority in Parliament for reversal. If there's a deal, and I almost want to say any deal, ion the table, it's a lot harder, because we could always have that, and 'respect the referendum result' etc. But if the provided deal is voted down, things might get interesting.
And...yeah, look, I appreciate you'd be tooth grindingly put out, but if that happened, you would not believe the party that would be thrown in our house.
However tempting it would be I can't really blame anyone for not wanting to experience first hand a Mad Max future (except with lovely English weather)...
Do not, my friends, become addicted to sunshine...
Look, if we're going all Mad Max, I demand more V8s instead of farty four-bangers and diesels.
Just like our cyberpunk dystopia doesn't have nearly enough neon.
Worth remembering there are a couple of things that have to happen to avoid no deal, even if nothing else happens
- The EU withdrawal act needs to be amended to remove or change the leaving date, that was written into primary legislation probably to create the possibility of a technical default into a no deal exit
- The article 50 period will almost certainly need to be extended
Neither is insurmountable, but they do have to happen
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SnicketysnickThe Greatest Hype Man inWesterosRegistered Userregular
I can see the future. The UK will, at the eleventh hour, revoke the Article 50 and come back into the EU keeping their sweetheart deal and without a care for all the work everyone else was doing to prep for Brexit; and then the very next day will start demanding that all the EU institutions and offices that were moved out of the UK be moved back into the country.
I actually wondered if this might happen. If we get down to the wire, and our alternatives are No Deal, the army on street corners, food and medicine shortages and total economic catastrophe, or...not, I suspect there might be a majority in Parliament for reversal. If there's a deal, and I almost want to say any deal, ion the table, it's a lot harder, because we could always have that, and 'respect the referendum result' etc. But if the provided deal is voted down, things might get interesting.
And...yeah, look, I appreciate you'd be tooth grindingly put out, but if that happened, you would not believe the party that would be thrown in our house.
However tempting it would be I can't really blame anyone for not wanting to experience first hand a Mad Max future (except with lovely English weather)...
Do not, my friends, become addicted to sunshine...
Look, if we're going all Mad Max, I demand more V8s instead of farty four-bangers and diesels.
Just like our cyberpunk dystopia doesn't have nearly enough neon.
I can see the future. The UK will, at the eleventh hour, revoke the Article 50 and come back into the EU keeping their sweetheart deal and without a care for all the work everyone else was doing to prep for Brexit; and then the very next day will start demanding that all the EU institutions and offices that were moved out of the UK be moved back into the country.
I actually wondered if this might happen. If we get down to the wire, and our alternatives are No Deal, the army on street corners, food and medicine shortages and total economic catastrophe, or...not, I suspect there might be a majority in Parliament for reversal. If there's a deal, and I almost want to say any deal, ion the table, it's a lot harder, because we could always have that, and 'respect the referendum result' etc. But if the provided deal is voted down, things might get interesting.
And...yeah, look, I appreciate you'd be tooth grindingly put out, but if that happened, you would not believe the party that would be thrown in our house.
However tempting it would be I can't really blame anyone for not wanting to experience first hand a Mad Max future (except with lovely English weather)...
Do not, my friends, become addicted to sunshine...
Look, if we're going all Mad Max, I demand more V8s instead of farty four-bangers and diesels.
Just like our cyberpunk dystopia doesn't have nearly enough neon.
You can't run an engine on vegetable juice Jazz!
We won't be able to afford vegetable juice or go-go juice, so its all academic anyway!
I'm sort of predicting that May resigns/position becomes untenable etc next week.
Got to me to thinking what her legacy would be. Brexit has so dominated her premiership that I can't think of any notable pieces of legislation to emerge over these past two years.
I can see the future. The UK will, at the eleventh hour, revoke the Article 50 and come back into the EU keeping their sweetheart deal and without a care for all the work everyone else was doing to prep for Brexit; and then the very next day will start demanding that all the EU institutions and offices that were moved out of the UK be moved back into the country.
I actually wondered if this might happen. If we get down to the wire, and our alternatives are No Deal, the army on street corners, food and medicine shortages and total economic catastrophe, or...not, I suspect there might be a majority in Parliament for reversal. If there's a deal, and I almost want to say any deal, ion the table, it's a lot harder, because we could always have that, and 'respect the referendum result' etc. But if the provided deal is voted down, things might get interesting.
And...yeah, look, I appreciate you'd be tooth grindingly put out, but if that happened, you would not believe the party that would be thrown in our house.
However tempting it would be I can't really blame anyone for not wanting to experience first hand a Mad Max future (except with lovely English weather)...
Do not, my friends, become addicted to sunshine...
Look, if we're going all Mad Max, I demand more V8s instead of farty four-bangers and diesels.
Just like our cyberpunk dystopia doesn't have nearly enough neon.
You can't run an engine on vegetable juice Jazz!
We won't be able to afford vegetable juice or go-go juice, so its all academic anyway!
The most inventive jam.
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surrealitychecklonely, but not unloveddreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered Userregular
I'm sort of predicting that May resigns/position becomes untenable etc next week.
Got to me to thinking what her legacy would be. Brexit has so dominated her premiership that I can't think of any notable pieces of legislation to emerge over these past two years.
she will go down in history as somebody with bad instincts who made the worst of a bad situation
the lancaster house speech shows her bad instincts; the general election shows her cynicism, and calling article 50 shows her unwillingness to resist a certain kind of pressure.
add that together and she produced a prison for herself with walls of her own design
Posts
The cynical side of me thinks this is a delaying tactic.
Please imagine I said something very witty
15th Earl of Wobberington on the eve of St Crispin's Day.
Modern politics is a shambles.
Apparently they were prolonging the debate to try to whip for the vote on the Grieve amendment that is currently taking place. This amendment would allow parliament to instruct the government what to do in the rather likely event the vote on the Brexit deal fails
--Let me cancel brexit
-No
--Ok, let me decide what to do in the rather likely event the vote on the Brexit deal fails
-hmmmm ok
Interesting Times indeed.
(Laura Kuenssberg is a BBC Political editor)
Heard that there's 8 hours of debate scheduled on the main bill, but only just starting now, wonder if PMQs will be a bit sparsely attended as people catch up on sleep for round 2 tomorrow afternoon.
D3 Steam #TeamTangent STO
Never assume that all our stupid is in the past.
They won't though.
D3 Steam #TeamTangent STO
Apparently the ‘Norway or bust’ group are circling now. It’s possible they think they’ll get the votes for that after May’s deal combusts.
Goodreads
SF&F Reviews blog
D3 Steam #TeamTangent STO
"I never though the party would get leopards to eat people's faces", sobs former leader of the Let's Get Leopards to Eat People's Faces Party.
EVERYBODY WANTS TO SIT IN THE BIG CHAIR, MEG!
Now do one for the other side.
ETA: Jeremy talking about bins again.
Goodreads
SF&F Reviews blog
No deal is not a deal. Its what we do when we drop out of the EU of 29/03/2019 next year and if the ECJ [not the Advocacy General] decides we can unilaterally revoke Article 50
it can only be done if we have a deal between the UK and the EU. And since May's deal will fail in Parliament guess what that means.
Parliament doesn't get to decide what happens because it is up to external actors. And anyway time is pretty much up for another referendum.
Can you smell that Hard Brexit smell?
That’s what expires next year.
If the article 50 notice is revoked that doesn’t happen, regardless of what has or has not been agreed to in regards to a potential post-leave relationship
Parliament can't put forward bills themselves?
That is what I am referring to in regards of a deal. So as you can see it does not apply to EU membership.
Honestly when I take a step back and look at it, I can't help but wonder why we aren't talking about May's resignation and the impending general election. The government has just lost 3 major votes in one day (is that a record?). One of those votes has found the government to be the first ever government in contempt of parliament. How that doesn't automatically get them thrown out (in the same manner as a straight up confidence vote) I have no idea. It also means May completes the double of being in contempt of court (second home secretary ever) and contempt of parliament (first government ever). Her lack of respect for the rules in place makes it clear she's just a tyrant at heart and simply too incompetent to pull it off effectively. Keep in mind that her reported plan at this point is to willingly let the markets crash to provide pressure for her deal.
I read that as Article 50 is unilaterally revocable until the withdrawl agreement is fully agreed and implemented by both parties. Possibly at any point up until it comes into effect.
That’s not what that says at all
In fact it says the opposite
When the withdrawal agreement is concluded the UK can no longer revoke the article 50 notification
I cannot believe he would do anything out of some sense of standards. It doesn't compute.
I believe that’s the argument from the government benches yeah.
Someone else could probably rebutt it better but:
1. If May’s deal passes, that’s what we get, and we go on our way, setting up a new trade deal over the next few years.
2. May’s deal gets torpedo’d
2)a) government goes back to the EU, gets some cosmetic changes, and we return to 1)
2)b) Parliament votes down May’s deal 2, electric boogaloo
This leads to all sorts of potential options:
1) The government accepts its all wrong and goes No Deal - seems unlikely, as Parliament won’t vote for that
2) The government goes back to the EU and tries to renegotiate something off-the-shelf in three months (probably something EFTA’y, that would be least effort)
3) Government asks for an extension of Article 50 while it sorts itself out (hmm)
4) No Confidence called, passes(if fails, see 2/3) ; leadership election/general election
Which leads to:
1. Brexiteer wins leadership, wins election - return to the blockage of 1) above, but presumably there’d be a manifesto commitment to something...
2. Labour wins general election; unleashes unicorns for all Brexit (this probably leads us back around to the EFTA option in the short term)
No Deal is pretty much off the table; there’s probably not a majority for anything *but* ‘Not no deal’ ; I suspect if it got down to the 28th of March and we still were staring at ourselves, someone would push the revoke button on A50.
Goodreads
SF&F Reviews blog
"we'll negotiate our jobs first (or whatever) brexit and they give the people a say on if we go through with it"
this both gives lip service to brexit and lexit types and lets remainers vote for them with the hope they can at least get to say no later. its probably the best-triangulated option and the one ive heard from several labour pol people
I have to say, Margaret Beckett's speech in Parliament was quite a thing, and I found myself agreeing with pretty much all of it.
the path to this was just a pr push to make no deal as palatable as possible so that parliament might let it happen.
but sooner or later they were going to run into the problem that they were going to need a parliamentary majority... for something. and they just dont have it. and the fear is beginning to set in that if mays deal gets rejected the best they can hope for is a labour brexit unless they can get a majority option (which they cant)... and that is for many of them even more nightmarish (CUSTOMS UNION? SINGLE MARKET REGULATORY ALIGNMENT? OH NOEY)
of course odd things may happen. one of them is that they might look at the slightly confused public opinion on no deal versus remain and realise the only gamble they have left is a second referendum that includes no deal - and that might be the odd thing we see them ending up collapsing into
Do not, my friends, become addicted to sunshine...
Look, if we're going all Mad Max, I demand more V8s instead of farty four-bangers and diesels.
Just like our cyberpunk dystopia doesn't have nearly enough neon.
Steam | XBL
- The EU withdrawal act needs to be amended to remove or change the leaving date, that was written into primary legislation probably to create the possibility of a technical default into a no deal exit
- The article 50 period will almost certainly need to be extended
Neither is insurmountable, but they do have to happen
You can't run an engine on vegetable juice Jazz!
D3 Steam #TeamTangent STO
We won't be able to afford vegetable juice or go-go juice, so its all academic anyway!
Steam | XBL
Got to me to thinking what her legacy would be. Brexit has so dominated her premiership that I can't think of any notable pieces of legislation to emerge over these past two years.
The most inventive jam.
she will go down in history as somebody with bad instincts who made the worst of a bad situation
the lancaster house speech shows her bad instincts; the general election shows her cynicism, and calling article 50 shows her unwillingness to resist a certain kind of pressure.
add that together and she produced a prison for herself with walls of her own design
People shouldn't forget her time as Home Secretary. She was awful there too.