Trump folds all the time. And he clearly knows he's in a bad situation right now. It's just a question of how he decides to escape the trap he's built for himself.
I feel the most likely endgame is Trump declares a state of emergency in order to build the wall by fiat, saving enough face to re-open the government before the torches and pitchforks come out. The wall falls into endless legal challenges about eminent domain or if he even has the power to declare a self-created, slow moving train wreck as an "emergency", which he tries to pin on Democrats.
Alternate theory: He just fucking rides this shitshow into the ditch as a smokescreen for the increasing heat from the Mueller investigation, deciding that if he's going down, he's taking us all with him.
Since yesterday was poll day the stories to continue to target the President and the Republicans. It is just not that great for the Republicans in the public eye.
Trump has gone negative with Whites without a college degree.
Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 37 percent, according to the latest CNN poll, which reported:
“The increase in disapproval for the President comes primarily among whites without college degrees, 45% of whom approve and 47% disapprove, marking the first time his approval rating with this group has been underwater in CNN polling since February 2018. In December, his approval rating with whites who have not received a four-year degree stood at 54%, with 39% disapproving.”
This should make Republicans if they cared stand up and listen.
Trump’s message on the shutdown — blaming Democrats for refusing to concede on his border wall — isn't convincing the American public. Instead, the majority of Americans think Trump and Republicans are at fault for the shutdown, according to two new polls. A Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 53 percent of respondents blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress for the shutdown, while 29 percent blamed Democrats. Thirteen percent of respondents said both sides were equally to blame.
Another poll from CNN found that 55 percent of respondents blamed Trump, while 32 percent blamed Democrats. Nine percent blamed both sides.
Also the flight issues are getting worse and hitting Dulles. I hope it screws over a few Senators.
Since yesterday was poll day the stories to continue to target the President and the Republicans. It is just not that great for the Republicans in the public eye.
Trump has gone negative with Whites without a college degree.
Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 37 percent, according to the latest CNN poll, which reported:
“The increase in disapproval for the President comes primarily among whites without college degrees, 45% of whom approve and 47% disapprove, marking the first time his approval rating with this group has been underwater in CNN polling since February 2018. In December, his approval rating with whites who have not received a four-year degree stood at 54%, with 39% disapproving.”
This should make Republicans if they cared stand up and listen.
Trump’s message on the shutdown — blaming Democrats for refusing to concede on his border wall — isn't convincing the American public. Instead, the majority of Americans think Trump and Republicans are at fault for the shutdown, according to two new polls. A Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 53 percent of respondents blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress for the shutdown, while 29 percent blamed Democrats. Thirteen percent of respondents said both sides were equally to blame.
Another poll from CNN found that 55 percent of respondents blamed Trump, while 32 percent blamed Democrats. Nine percent blamed both sides.
Also the flight issues are getting worse and hitting Dulles. I hope it screws over a few Senators.
I've heard some pretty solid rumblings that TSA staff at a lot of major airports are going to start walking out in ever greater numbers before the end of the week. TSA screening is something which is going to go from slow at 100% staff, to annoyingly slow at 60% to simply shutdown and no longer capable of running an airport at 59%. The cascade failure caused when we cross the 'delay is long enough that a person using caution in arrival time (75 minute domestic, 180 minute international) before the shutdown misses their flight' will be pretty much immediate. The entire system will collapse.
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
At some point, if it's not already begun, those will be TSA agents calling in to quit instead of calling in sick. Which means even after the shutdown ends, it'll be some time before air travel even resembles normal again, because they'll have to replace and train some unknown chunk of their workforce.
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
Since yesterday was poll day the stories to continue to target the President and the Republicans. It is just not that great for the Republicans in the public eye.
Trump has gone negative with Whites without a college degree.
Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 37 percent, according to the latest CNN poll, which reported:
“The increase in disapproval for the President comes primarily among whites without college degrees, 45% of whom approve and 47% disapprove, marking the first time his approval rating with this group has been underwater in CNN polling since February 2018. In December, his approval rating with whites who have not received a four-year degree stood at 54%, with 39% disapproving.”
This should make Republicans if they cared stand up and listen.
Trump’s message on the shutdown — blaming Democrats for refusing to concede on his border wall — isn't convincing the American public. Instead, the majority of Americans think Trump and Republicans are at fault for the shutdown, according to two new polls. A Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 53 percent of respondents blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress for the shutdown, while 29 percent blamed Democrats. Thirteen percent of respondents said both sides were equally to blame.
Another poll from CNN found that 55 percent of respondents blamed Trump, while 32 percent blamed Democrats. Nine percent blamed both sides.
Also the flight issues are getting worse and hitting Dulles. I hope it screws over a few Senators.
I've heard some pretty solid rumblings that TSA staff at a lot of major airports are going to start walking out in ever greater numbers before the end of the week. TSA screening is something which is going to go from slow at 100% staff, to annoyingly slow at 60% to simply shutdown and no longer capable of running an airport at 59%. The cascade failure caused when we cross the 'delay is long enough that a person using caution in arrival time (75 minute domestic, 180 minute international) before the shutdown misses their flight' will be pretty much immediate. The entire system will collapse.
Well, we could always just do away with all the pointless security theater...
Yeah, I know, not happening.
Here is 538's amalgamation of the polls on Trump's opinion ratings released over the last few days. It drop a bit. Probably will drop under 40% over all again.
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
US Customs Officers aren't being paid also, right?? I am wondering how much longer they will be able to put up with that until they either decide to just straight up close the border or to only staff to bare minimum levels that will effectively close it anyways. It's going to be fun when me and my wife won't be able to cross the border to go to work in a reasonable amount of time.
I think the bigger thing to be concerned about in regards to customs or TSA and such is the now increased likelihood of them accepting bribes in exchange for relaxed security. When you don't know when your next paycheck is coming it becomes very tempting to take that cash and roll them through.
Bribing customs agents was always a potential concern but the risk is even greater now that their financial wellbeing is at stake. There's little incentive to hold onto your integrity when you need to feed your kids.
Surprising absolutely nobody at all, Trump's shutdown in the name of security has made everything more dangerous for everyone. I'd say that's part of the plan (cause lax border security, claim need for wall after *insert bad thing* happens), but I'm not giving him that much credit. He has no plan.
US Customs Officers aren't being paid also, right?? I am wondering how much longer they will be able to put up with that until they either decide to just straight up close the border or to only staff to bare minimum levels that will effectively close it anyways. It's going to be fun when me and my wife won't be able to cross the border to go to work in a reasonable amount of time.
I think the bigger thing to be concerned about in regards to customs or TSA and such is the now increased likelihood of them accepting bribes in exchange for relaxed security. When you don't know when your next paycheck is coming it becomes very tempting to take that cash and roll them through.
Bribing customs agents was always a potential concern but the risk is even greater now that their financial wellbeing is at stake. There's little incentive to hold onto your integrity when you need to feed your kids.
Surprising absolutely nobody at all, Trump's shutdown in the name of security has made everything more dangerous for everyone. I'd say that's part of the plan (cause lax border security, claim need for wall after *insert bad thing* happens), but I'm not giving him that much credit. He has no plan.
There’s no evidence this was ever a concern. I don’t think TSA workers are going to sit around and hope for bribes. I think they are just going to stop coming to work.
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
US Customs Officers aren't being paid also, right?? I am wondering how much longer they will be able to put up with that until they either decide to just straight up close the border or to only staff to bare minimum levels that will effectively close it anyways. It's going to be fun when me and my wife won't be able to cross the border to go to work in a reasonable amount of time.
I think the bigger thing to be concerned about in regards to customs or TSA and such is the now increased likelihood of them accepting bribes in exchange for relaxed security. When you don't know when your next paycheck is coming it becomes very tempting to take that cash and roll them through.
Bribing customs agents was always a potential concern but the risk is even greater now that their financial wellbeing is at stake. There's little incentive to hold onto your integrity when you need to feed your kids.
Surprising absolutely nobody at all, Trump's shutdown in the name of security has made everything more dangerous for everyone. I'd say that's part of the plan (cause lax border security, claim need for wall after *insert bad thing* happens), but I'm not giving him that much credit. He has no plan.
There’s no evidence this was ever a concern. I don’t think TSA workers are going to sit around and hope for bribes. I think they are just going to stop coming to work.
Logically they are going to start applying for new jobs. As they get them, they will quit their TSA job.
Senate Rs (and House Rs for the override) are where we need to see pressure
Also D’s in both chambers, because lord knows we’re in uncharted territory at this point and their spines almost certainly need stiffening.
I contacted both my senators and my rep again today, and told them, again, not to surrender to Trump even if it means keeping the government shut down for six years. And I highly encourage everyone else to do the same. Unless you have Republican congresspersons, in which case call them and tell they to kick out Mitch and override the veto.
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
I dont know about that
To this point: people blamed the GOP and not Clinton for the shutdown under his administration, which is the one most comparable in length to the current shutdown.
Obviously polling wasn't as good back then and every crisis is unique, but I think its overly reductionist to say much like this.
Since yesterday was poll day the stories to continue to target the President and the Republicans. It is just not that great for the Republicans in the public eye.
Trump has gone negative with Whites without a college degree.
Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 37 percent, according to the latest CNN poll, which reported:
“The increase in disapproval for the President comes primarily among whites without college degrees, 45% of whom approve and 47% disapprove, marking the first time his approval rating with this group has been underwater in CNN polling since February 2018. In December, his approval rating with whites who have not received a four-year degree stood at 54%, with 39% disapproving.”
This should make Republicans if they cared stand up and listen.
Trump’s message on the shutdown — blaming Democrats for refusing to concede on his border wall — isn't convincing the American public. Instead, the majority of Americans think Trump and Republicans are at fault for the shutdown, according to two new polls. A Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 53 percent of respondents blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress for the shutdown, while 29 percent blamed Democrats. Thirteen percent of respondents said both sides were equally to blame.
Another poll from CNN found that 55 percent of respondents blamed Trump, while 32 percent blamed Democrats. Nine percent blamed both sides.
Also the flight issues are getting worse and hitting Dulles. I hope it screws over a few Senators.
I've heard some pretty solid rumblings that TSA staff at a lot of major airports are going to start walking out in ever greater numbers before the end of the week. TSA screening is something which is going to go from slow at 100% staff, to annoyingly slow at 60% to simply shutdown and no longer capable of running an airport at 59%. The cascade failure caused when we cross the 'delay is long enough that a person using caution in arrival time (75 minute domestic, 180 minute international) before the shutdown misses their flight' will be pretty much immediate. The entire system will collapse.
Well, we could always just do away with all the pointless security theater...
Yeah, I know, not happening.
Since yesterday was poll day the stories to continue to target the President and the Republicans. It is just not that great for the Republicans in the public eye.
Trump has gone negative with Whites without a college degree.
Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 37 percent, according to the latest CNN poll, which reported:
“The increase in disapproval for the President comes primarily among whites without college degrees, 45% of whom approve and 47% disapprove, marking the first time his approval rating with this group has been underwater in CNN polling since February 2018. In December, his approval rating with whites who have not received a four-year degree stood at 54%, with 39% disapproving.”
This should make Republicans if they cared stand up and listen.
Trump’s message on the shutdown — blaming Democrats for refusing to concede on his border wall — isn't convincing the American public. Instead, the majority of Americans think Trump and Republicans are at fault for the shutdown, according to two new polls. A Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 53 percent of respondents blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress for the shutdown, while 29 percent blamed Democrats. Thirteen percent of respondents said both sides were equally to blame.
Another poll from CNN found that 55 percent of respondents blamed Trump, while 32 percent blamed Democrats. Nine percent blamed both sides.
Also the flight issues are getting worse and hitting Dulles. I hope it screws over a few Senators.
I've heard some pretty solid rumblings that TSA staff at a lot of major airports are going to start walking out in ever greater numbers before the end of the week. TSA screening is something which is going to go from slow at 100% staff, to annoyingly slow at 60% to simply shutdown and no longer capable of running an airport at 59%. The cascade failure caused when we cross the 'delay is long enough that a person using caution in arrival time (75 minute domestic, 180 minute international) before the shutdown misses their flight' will be pretty much immediate. The entire system will collapse.
Well, we could always just do away with all the pointless security theater...
Yeah, I know, not happening.
Eh, its not ALL pointless. And a lot of the international stuff is forced upon us by aviation treaty without which we can't fly to a lot of airports.
Anyway, a complete reform of the TSA and how we do airport security (a return for example to a simple bag x-ray, followed by a shoes on/belt on walkthrough of a scanning machine) is something that should be done while the government is open and we can make useful decisions as to what actually works.
Hell, thats a great bill for the democrats to introduce....
"The TSA shall produce once each year a report on the effectiveness of each of its existing and proposed screening techniques. All screening techniques which are considered duplicative or obsolete shall be removed. The average length of time spent being screened by TSA shall also be provided in this report. This amount of time shall decrease by 1 minute each year until it has been cut 25% from existing levels. If screening time does not decrease, the TSA shall eliminate screening techniques beginning with the least effective."
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
I dont know about that
To this point: people blamed the GOP and not Clinton for the shutdown under his administration, which is the one most comparable in length to the current shutdown.
Obviously polling wasn't as good back then and every crisis is unique, but I think its overly reductionist to say much like this.
Gingrich was pulling a Trump and claiming responsibility for the whole thing.
Even when TSA was offering to pay people to work for them they were having a hard time compensating for their high turn over.
Due in no small part to the fact that the TSA workers KNOW that a lot of their work is pointless nonsense which doesn't help. People HATE doing work they know is pointless. Making sure that the TSA had a screening time budget would go a long way to helping them with retention by making the workers know that all the steps were important.
US Customs Officers aren't being paid also, right?? I am wondering how much longer they will be able to put up with that until they either decide to just straight up close the border or to only staff to bare minimum levels that will effectively close it anyways. It's going to be fun when me and my wife won't be able to cross the border to go to work in a reasonable amount of time.
I think the bigger thing to be concerned about in regards to customs or TSA and such is the now increased likelihood of them accepting bribes in exchange for relaxed security. When you don't know when your next paycheck is coming it becomes very tempting to take that cash and roll them through.
Bribing customs agents was always a potential concern but the risk is even greater now that their financial wellbeing is at stake. There's little incentive to hold onto your integrity when you need to feed your kids.
Surprising absolutely nobody at all, Trump's shutdown in the name of security has made everything more dangerous for everyone. I'd say that's part of the plan (cause lax border security, claim need for wall after *insert bad thing* happens), but I'm not giving him that much credit. He has no plan.
There’s no evidence this was ever a concern. I don’t think TSA workers are going to sit around and hope for bribes. I think they are just going to stop coming to work.
The trick is you just put a $100 bill in an oversized water bottle.
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
The thing about TSA screening is eventually it hits a point where “longer lines” and “get there earlier” don’t actually work. You can push X people through in a day with available manpower, and Y people depart through the airport in a day, and once X<Y you create a backlog and simply never catch up. Or am I missing something?
Obviously eventually people stop flying, so Y is reduced. But that creates some pretty broad ripple effects on then economy.
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
I dont know about that
To this point: people blamed the GOP and not Clinton for the shutdown under his administration, which is the one most comparable in length to the current shutdown.
Obviously polling wasn't as good back then and every crisis is unique, but I think its overly reductionist to say much like this.
Gingrich has been majorly promoted, giving someone else to blame and took ownership of it. And Clinton is minimally top 4 (with Obama, Reagan and Kennedy) post WWII in terms of Presidents able to sway popular opinion. So while people would normally blame the most visible person (the President) the GOP botched it enough that Clinton came out smelling like roses
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
I dont know about that
To this point: people blamed the GOP and not Clinton for the shutdown under his administration, which is the one most comparable in length to the current shutdown.
Obviously polling wasn't as good back then and every crisis is unique, but I think its overly reductionist to say much like this.
Gingrich was pulling a Trump and claiming responsibility for the whole thing.
I'm kind of skeptical how much that's a part of peoples' thinking. Seems to me mostly that people assign blame according to their partisan inclinations, whatever the facts may be. I think general polling might be more illuminating than anything else here.
We all pay far more attention to the news than most Americans and have a longer memory for random quotes.
Honestly we should abolish the TSA since they're a mostly useless organizaion. Let airports provide their own private security with minimum required standards.
Even when TSA was offering to pay people to work for them they were having a hard time compensating for their high turn over.
Due in no small part to the fact that the TSA workers KNOW that a lot of their work is pointless nonsense which doesn't help. People HATE doing work they know is pointless. Making sure that the TSA had a screening time budget would go a long way to helping them with retention by making the workers know that all the steps were important.
It doesn't help that it's also a thankless job where almost literally everyone you meet hates what you do.
Honestly we should abolish the TSA since they're a mostly useless organizaion. Let airports provide their own private security with minimum required standards.
Why should I care that the person following Federal Guidelines has a different shirt and gets paid out of local sales tax when the problem I have is with the Federal Guidelines? If anything, making them all Feds to relieve the cost on airports was the one benefit of forming TSA. Making local governments foot the bill would solve the immediate problem of DHS not having appropriations, but the Federal Government should never be shutdown to begin with, so...
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
US Customs Officers aren't being paid also, right?? I am wondering how much longer they will be able to put up with that until they either decide to just straight up close the border or to only staff to bare minimum levels that will effectively close it anyways. It's going to be fun when me and my wife won't be able to cross the border to go to work in a reasonable amount of time.
I think the bigger thing to be concerned about in regards to customs or TSA and such is the now increased likelihood of them accepting bribes in exchange for relaxed security. When you don't know when your next paycheck is coming it becomes very tempting to take that cash and roll them through.
Bribing customs agents was always a potential concern but the risk is even greater now that their financial wellbeing is at stake. There's little incentive to hold onto your integrity when you need to feed your kids.
Surprising absolutely nobody at all, Trump's shutdown in the name of security has made everything more dangerous for everyone. I'd say that's part of the plan (cause lax border security, claim need for wall after *insert bad thing* happens), but I'm not giving him that much credit. He has no plan.
There’s no evidence this was ever a concern. I don’t think TSA workers are going to sit around and hope for bribes. I think they are just going to stop coming to work.
I saw a news article (sorry, no link) where some travellers were aware TSA workers are going without pay and were trying to give them tips - TSA policy is that they can't accept tips or gifts, specifically because of bribery concerns.
The drop makes sense. His inability to get anything done here cuts into his own brand regardless of whether you want the wall or not and his unwillingness so far to just go the authoritarian route displeases authoritarians
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
I dont know about that
To this point: people blamed the GOP and not Clinton for the shutdown under his administration, which is the one most comparable in length to the current shutdown.
Obviously polling wasn't as good back then and every crisis is unique, but I think its overly reductionist to say much like this.
Gingrich was pulling a Trump and claiming responsibility for the whole thing.
I'm kind of skeptical how much that's a part of peoples' thinking. Seems to me mostly that people assign blame according to their partisan inclinations, whatever the facts may be. I think general polling might be more illuminating than anything else here.
We all pay far more attention to the news than most Americans and have a longer memory for random quotes.
The 90s were a lot looser in that sense. Things were less partisan then.
And I think it should be remembered that Gingrich was selling the shutdown as a big thing they were doing as part of his attempts to scale back the federal government, which is ostensibly what his entire election strategy for taking back Congress was based on.
US Customs Officers aren't being paid also, right?? I am wondering how much longer they will be able to put up with that until they either decide to just straight up close the border or to only staff to bare minimum levels that will effectively close it anyways. It's going to be fun when me and my wife won't be able to cross the border to go to work in a reasonable amount of time.
I think the bigger thing to be concerned about in regards to customs or TSA and such is the now increased likelihood of them accepting bribes in exchange for relaxed security. When you don't know when your next paycheck is coming it becomes very tempting to take that cash and roll them through.
Bribing customs agents was always a potential concern but the risk is even greater now that their financial wellbeing is at stake. There's little incentive to hold onto your integrity when you need to feed your kids.
Surprising absolutely nobody at all, Trump's shutdown in the name of security has made everything more dangerous for everyone. I'd say that's part of the plan (cause lax border security, claim need for wall after *insert bad thing* happens), but I'm not giving him that much credit. He has no plan.
There’s no evidence this was ever a concern. I don’t think TSA workers are going to sit around and hope for bribes. I think they are just going to stop coming to work.
I saw a news article (sorry, no link) where some travellers were aware TSA workers are going without pay and were trying to give them tips - TSA policy is that they can't accept tips or gifts, specifically because of bribery concerns.
If you put the tip jar AFTER the security check, it can't be a bribe, right?
US Customs Officers aren't being paid also, right?? I am wondering how much longer they will be able to put up with that until they either decide to just straight up close the border or to only staff to bare minimum levels that will effectively close it anyways. It's going to be fun when me and my wife won't be able to cross the border to go to work in a reasonable amount of time.
I think the bigger thing to be concerned about in regards to customs or TSA and such is the now increased likelihood of them accepting bribes in exchange for relaxed security. When you don't know when your next paycheck is coming it becomes very tempting to take that cash and roll them through.
Bribing customs agents was always a potential concern but the risk is even greater now that their financial wellbeing is at stake. There's little incentive to hold onto your integrity when you need to feed your kids.
Surprising absolutely nobody at all, Trump's shutdown in the name of security has made everything more dangerous for everyone. I'd say that's part of the plan (cause lax border security, claim need for wall after *insert bad thing* happens), but I'm not giving him that much credit. He has no plan.
This is also a serious issue for various federal law enforcement folks during these shut downs. Their credit rating is heavily vetted and if they miss payments or have major financial issues that can be cause for termination. Now force them to work at a job that won't pay them and they are in a lose lose situation. Made worse they need a specific exemption to work at a second job and they can't get those exemptions because the people who would do that are also furloughed. If this goes another week stuff is going to get really really ugly in ways we have not seen before.
For some actual numbers, it looks like the Federal Government's average turnover is about 15%, with the TSA ranging between 30% and 80% depending on location.
As far as I can find without spending too much time on this it looks like minimum wage turnover is about 18-20% in the private sector.
Its interesting because working for the TSA is actually fairly solid wages. Apparently its a desperately boring job.
edit: should note though that minimum wage labor and the TSA aren't the same labor pool.
Even when TSA was offering to pay people to work for them they were having a hard time compensating for their high turn over.
Due in no small part to the fact that the TSA workers KNOW that a lot of their work is pointless nonsense which doesn't help. People HATE doing work they know is pointless. Making sure that the TSA had a screening time budget would go a long way to helping them with retention by making the workers know that all the steps were important.
It doesn't help that it's also a thankless job where almost literally everyone you meet hates what you do.
I only hate them for the shoe thing still. I thought it was proven that it doesn't matter. And I swear one airport was like no your shoes are fine to stay on. And then since then every single airport is back to taking shoes off, unless you are elderly.... UM WTF, how can there be exceptions? Then it means it doesn't matter let everyone keep their damn shoes on!
Posts
I feel the most likely endgame is Trump declares a state of emergency in order to build the wall by fiat, saving enough face to re-open the government before the torches and pitchforks come out. The wall falls into endless legal challenges about eminent domain or if he even has the power to declare a self-created, slow moving train wreck as an "emergency", which he tries to pin on Democrats.
Alternate theory: He just fucking rides this shitshow into the ditch as a smokescreen for the increasing heat from the Mueller investigation, deciding that if he's going down, he's taking us all with him.
Trump has gone negative with Whites without a college degree.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/14/shutdown-extends-trump-losing-support-white-working-class-voters/?utm_term=.61dc8cb08151
This is the base if there was one.
This should make Republicans if they cared stand up and listen.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/13/government-shutdown-republicans-trump-1098723
Also the flight issues are getting worse and hitting Dulles. I hope it screws over a few Senators.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/14/government-shutdown-tsa-airports-lines-1081641
I've heard some pretty solid rumblings that TSA staff at a lot of major airports are going to start walking out in ever greater numbers before the end of the week. TSA screening is something which is going to go from slow at 100% staff, to annoyingly slow at 60% to simply shutdown and no longer capable of running an airport at 59%. The cascade failure caused when we cross the 'delay is long enough that a person using caution in arrival time (75 minute domestic, 180 minute international) before the shutdown misses their flight' will be pretty much immediate. The entire system will collapse.
There's just a general tendency to blame the President for shutdowns, as well.
Well, we could always just do away with all the pointless security theater...
Yeah, I know, not happening.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
The art of the deal guy just can't make a deal.
You should probably go line up right now.
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
Get there early and hope for the best. My guess is they still can man a couple security lanes but everything is going to take a lot longer.
You should probably leave for the airport now.
EDIT: God dammit Muddbudd
I think the bigger thing to be concerned about in regards to customs or TSA and such is the now increased likelihood of them accepting bribes in exchange for relaxed security. When you don't know when your next paycheck is coming it becomes very tempting to take that cash and roll them through.
Bribing customs agents was always a potential concern but the risk is even greater now that their financial wellbeing is at stake. There's little incentive to hold onto your integrity when you need to feed your kids.
Surprising absolutely nobody at all, Trump's shutdown in the name of security has made everything more dangerous for everyone. I'd say that's part of the plan (cause lax border security, claim need for wall after *insert bad thing* happens), but I'm not giving him that much credit. He has no plan.
I dont know about that
Logically they are going to start applying for new jobs. As they get them, they will quit their TSA job.
I contacted both my senators and my rep again today, and told them, again, not to surrender to Trump even if it means keeping the government shut down for six years. And I highly encourage everyone else to do the same. Unless you have Republican congresspersons, in which case call them and tell they to kick out Mitch and override the veto.
To this point: people blamed the GOP and not Clinton for the shutdown under his administration, which is the one most comparable in length to the current shutdown.
Obviously polling wasn't as good back then and every crisis is unique, but I think its overly reductionist to say much like this.
Eh, its not ALL pointless. And a lot of the international stuff is forced upon us by aviation treaty without which we can't fly to a lot of airports.
Anyway, a complete reform of the TSA and how we do airport security (a return for example to a simple bag x-ray, followed by a shoes on/belt on walkthrough of a scanning machine) is something that should be done while the government is open and we can make useful decisions as to what actually works.
Hell, thats a great bill for the democrats to introduce....
"The TSA shall produce once each year a report on the effectiveness of each of its existing and proposed screening techniques. All screening techniques which are considered duplicative or obsolete shall be removed. The average length of time spent being screened by TSA shall also be provided in this report. This amount of time shall decrease by 1 minute each year until it has been cut 25% from existing levels. If screening time does not decrease, the TSA shall eliminate screening techniques beginning with the least effective."
Gingrich was pulling a Trump and claiming responsibility for the whole thing.
Due in no small part to the fact that the TSA workers KNOW that a lot of their work is pointless nonsense which doesn't help. People HATE doing work they know is pointless. Making sure that the TSA had a screening time budget would go a long way to helping them with retention by making the workers know that all the steps were important.
The trick is you just put a $100 bill in an oversized water bottle.
Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
https://cnn.com/2019/01/11/politics/shutdown-blame-polling/index.html
Well, looks like you're probably right. This seems to suggest that historically the blame has most often simply been shouldered by Republicans.
Obviously eventually people stop flying, so Y is reduced. But that creates some pretty broad ripple effects on then economy.
Gingrich has been majorly promoted, giving someone else to blame and took ownership of it. And Clinton is minimally top 4 (with Obama, Reagan and Kennedy) post WWII in terms of Presidents able to sway popular opinion. So while people would normally blame the most visible person (the President) the GOP botched it enough that Clinton came out smelling like roses
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
I'm kind of skeptical how much that's a part of peoples' thinking. Seems to me mostly that people assign blame according to their partisan inclinations, whatever the facts may be. I think general polling might be more illuminating than anything else here.
We all pay far more attention to the news than most Americans and have a longer memory for random quotes.
<-dude who has been and will hopefully continue flying the next week
It doesn't help that it's also a thankless job where almost literally everyone you meet hates what you do.
Why should I care that the person following Federal Guidelines has a different shirt and gets paid out of local sales tax when the problem I have is with the Federal Guidelines? If anything, making them all Feds to relieve the cost on airports was the one benefit of forming TSA. Making local governments foot the bill would solve the immediate problem of DHS not having appropriations, but the Federal Government should never be shutdown to begin with, so...
That's because Republicans are always the ones making demands and triggering the shutdown to get what they demand.
The 90s were a lot looser in that sense. Things were less partisan then.
And I think it should be remembered that Gingrich was selling the shutdown as a big thing they were doing as part of his attempts to scale back the federal government, which is ostensibly what his entire election strategy for taking back Congress was based on.
If you put the tip jar AFTER the security check, it can't be a bribe, right?
This is also a serious issue for various federal law enforcement folks during these shut downs. Their credit rating is heavily vetted and if they miss payments or have major financial issues that can be cause for termination. Now force them to work at a job that won't pay them and they are in a lose lose situation. Made worse they need a specific exemption to work at a second job and they can't get those exemptions because the people who would do that are also furloughed. If this goes another week stuff is going to get really really ugly in ways we have not seen before.
As far as I can find without spending too much time on this it looks like minimum wage turnover is about 18-20% in the private sector.
Its interesting because working for the TSA is actually fairly solid wages. Apparently its a desperately boring job.
edit: should note though that minimum wage labor and the TSA aren't the same labor pool.
I only hate them for the shoe thing still. I thought it was proven that it doesn't matter. And I swear one airport was like no your shoes are fine to stay on. And then since then every single airport is back to taking shoes off, unless you are elderly.... UM WTF, how can there be exceptions? Then it means it doesn't matter let everyone keep their damn shoes on!