I mostly lurk here, but I wanted to take a moment to try laying out the all the dimensions of why the Trump announcing he'll OK the clean CR is an astoundingly bad move for him, if only for my own understanding.
1. It's an open admission that he could have done this at any point in time and didn't have to make people suffer for so long. This completely undermine all his complaining about Democrats, as well as the "both sides" angles that media always strains to provide. Trump started it, Trump ended it. Nobody else shoulders that blame.
2. He got nothing out of it. Absolutely nothing.
3. Because the CR is only temporary, the massive unpopularity of his wall propositions and his crybaby antics will continue to get center stage in news coverage, providing the same ongoing erosion of his popularity and the popularity of the Republican party for doing zilch to keep him from going off the rails. All this without the very real cost of human suffering that the shutdown was taking.
4. The slow roll of this process and early announcement of his plans wildly undermines his claim that border security will be at some point a national emergency, rather than something that could be dealt with using the normal legislative process. It's obvious that Trump's ego is the emergency, not US borders.
5. If for some bizarre reason he decides to go back on signing the CR, he will get booed by everyone, not just Dems.
6. The next shutdown will look even more stupid than this one, because it's on the books that this one didn't work.
This really feels like a profound turning point in his presidency. Trump is facing actual consequences in public opinion and it's painfully clear that he has nobody to blame but his own ineptitude, no matter what who you side with.
Unnecessarily too. If he had even a little bit of planning and forethought he could have called Mitch up and said hey put 5 billion into the mix to start my wall I’ll veto anything without it. And Mitch would have said we have the votes I’ll take care of it.
Honestly I'm going to call this a win for unionised labour. The ATC Union were kind of the pressure that broke the stalemate and even though the Dems can definitely be hailed for not caving they didn't exactly have to do much other than say no and not break ranks. The pressure wasn't even that high on them: broad public and critical support, a clear idealogical and policy position to take, the moral high ground...
The shutdown was a massive gift to the Dems. They wrapped it up in a bow and sent it to the House Majority Leader on a silver platter. I can't believe what an unbelievably unforced error this was for the GOP and I bet a lot of GOP Senators feel the same way. That's kind of a big deal.
I think the biggest thing the dems did is perfectly craft their message from the outset, then exhibit the discipline to have everyone stay on message. The fact that they started with popular support helped, and this began with an unforced error by Trump ("I am proud to shut down the government" is one for the history books), but the dems played this perfectly.
Maybe we would have won eventually regardless, but we won earlier than we might have, and with a huge bump in popularity for both the dems in general and house leadership in particular.
This is picking off a bad throw and then using it to drive 50 yards for a touchdown.
And we got VAWA extension, which is basically teabagging the opposing quarterback.
Also a day full of Pelosi dunking on Trump, which, I'm out of sports metaphors, but today was pretty good guys.
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So going forward: the government opens up until the 15th, Trump knows he won't ever get his wall money and another shutdown over it would hurt him very badly, so he declares a state of emergency and uses the DoD to "build" the wall. He declares complete and total victory over the Democrats and then passes whatever spending bill lands on his desk. Much lauding of his masterful mastery of Deals commences. The SoE more than likely gets hit with some kind of lawsuit, gets tied up in courts or stuck in a development hell long enough for people to more or less forget about it. Maybe a few hundred feet of wall gets built. Maybe it doesn't.
Does that sound about right?
If he's smart (he's not), he just pretends this never happened and never mentions a wall again. Stone just got rolled and it's likely they're not too far away from rolling on Junior. He's got much bigger things to focus on. Especially after he successfully tanked his popularity with the base and burned up whatever political capital he had left with the congressional GOP with this shutdown.
Off to the races? He just says millions were hurt, and then gleefully calls doing it again "off to the races"
He has no idea what any of this really means, to him it's all just a way to get the TV to say nice things about him. The actual reprecussions of his actions are beyond his grasp, he has no way to relate to what people are actually going through other than some abstract stories that his lackeys tell him. And they're just as out of touch.
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
Honestly I'm going to call this a win for unionised labour. The ATC Union were kind of the pressure that broke the stalemate and even though the Dems can definitely be hailed for not caving they didn't exactly have to do much other than say no and not break ranks. The pressure wasn't even that high on them: broad public and critical support, a clear idealogical and policy position to take, the moral high ground...
The shutdown was a massive gift to the Dems. They wrapped it up in a bow and sent it to the House Majority Leader on a silver platter. I can't believe what an unbelievably unforced error this was for the GOP and I bet a lot of GOP Senators feel the same way. That's kind of a big deal.
I think the biggest thing the dems did is perfectly craft their message from the outset, then exhibit the discipline to have everyone stay on message. The fact that they started with popular support helped, and this began with an unforced error by Trump ("I am proud to shut down the government" is one for the history books), but the dems played this perfectly.
Maybe we would have won eventually regardless, but we won earlier than we might have, and with a huge bump in popularity for both the dems in general and house leadership in particular.
This is picking off a bad throw and then using it to drive 50 yards for a touchdown.
And we got VAWA extension, which is basically teabagging the opposing quarterback.
Also a day full of Pelosi dunking on Trump, which, I'm out of sports metaphors, but today was pretty good guys.
Trump claiming the shutdown wasn't an unforced error. It was a forced one. Pelosi played him like a fucking ukulele and goaded him into making a dominance play in front of the cameras.
The Democrats did a ton to win this fight. They poked Trump at every step to make him make mistakes, they stayed on message, they stayed unified, kept their eyes on the prize and they played the media game very well to keep the narrative on their side. This is how you play politics well.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
You're too optimistic. The symbolism of freely acting offensive and making elites curdle and tear out their hair is 90% of Trump's appeal. Actual legislative achievements i.e. "deals" are way less important than sticking it to the others in extremely visible ways.
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
Honestly I'm going to call this a win for unionised labour. The ATC Union were kind of the pressure that broke the stalemate and even though the Dems can definitely be hailed for not caving they didn't exactly have to do much other than say no and not break ranks. The pressure wasn't even that high on them: broad public and critical support, a clear idealogical and policy position to take, the moral high ground...
The shutdown was a massive gift to the Dems. They wrapped it up in a bow and sent it to the House Majority Leader on a silver platter. I can't believe what an unbelievably unforced error this was for the GOP and I bet a lot of GOP Senators feel the same way. That's kind of a big deal.
I think the biggest thing the dems did is perfectly craft their message from the outset, then exhibit the discipline to have everyone stay on message. The fact that they started with popular support helped, and this began with an unforced error by Trump ("I am proud to shut down the government" is one for the history books), but the dems played this perfectly.
Maybe we would have won eventually regardless, but we won earlier than we might have, and with a huge bump in popularity for both the dems in general and house leadership in particular.
This is picking off a bad throw and then using it to drive 50 yards for a touchdown.
And we got VAWA extension, which is basically teabagging the opposing quarterback.
Also a day full of Pelosi dunking on Trump, which, I'm out of sports metaphors, but today was pretty good guys.
Trump claiming the shutdown wasn't an unforced error. It was a forced one. Pelosi played him like a fucking ukulele and goaded him into making a dominance play in front of the cameras.
The Democrats did a ton to win this fight. They poked Trump at every step to make him make mistakes, they stayed on message, they stayed unified, kept their eyes on the prize and they played the media game very well to keep the narrative on their side. This is how you play politics well.
He was dumb enough to say that he would force another shut down of he doesnt get what he wants.
During what was essentially his concession speech.
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He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
What Josh Marshall calls "dominance politics" doesn't work if you don't dominate. Getting pushed around by a liberal woman from San Franciso is even worse.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
I've seen a couple conservative takes pop up of "So he opens the government, gives backpay to the workers who were getting hurt, delivers the SOTU which he will use to DESTROY the dems, and then closes the government again" as the 4d chess master redux.
EDIT: Oh right and he declares a state of emergency to build the wall, just also closes the government to teach the dems a lesson or something
Honestly I'm going to call this a win for unionised labour. The ATC Union were kind of the pressure that broke the stalemate and even though the Dems can definitely be hailed for not caving they didn't exactly have to do much other than say no and not break ranks. The pressure wasn't even that high on them: broad public and critical support, a clear idealogical and policy position to take, the moral high ground...
The shutdown was a massive gift to the Dems. They wrapped it up in a bow and sent it to the House Majority Leader on a silver platter. I can't believe what an unbelievably unforced error this was for the GOP and I bet a lot of GOP Senators feel the same way. That's kind of a big deal.
I think the biggest thing the dems did is perfectly craft their message from the outset, then exhibit the discipline to have everyone stay on message. The fact that they started with popular support helped, and this began with an unforced error by Trump ("I am proud to shut down the government" is one for the history books), but the dems played this perfectly.
Maybe we would have won eventually regardless, but we won earlier than we might have, and with a huge bump in popularity for both the dems in general and house leadership in particular.
This is picking off a bad throw and then using it to drive 50 yards for a touchdown.
And we got VAWA extension, which is basically teabagging the opposing quarterback.
Also a day full of Pelosi dunking on Trump, which, I'm out of sports metaphors, but today was pretty good guys.
Trump claiming the shutdown wasn't an unforced error. It was a forced one. Pelosi played him like a fucking ukulele and goaded him into making a dominance play in front of the cameras.
The Democrats did a ton to win this fight. They poked Trump at every step to make him make mistakes, they stayed on message, they stayed unified, kept their eyes on the prize and they played the media game very well to keep the narrative on their side. This is how you play politics well.
He was dumb enough to say that he would force another shut down of he doesnt get what he wants.
During what was essentially his concession speech.
I wouldn’t go that far, but he’s really doing his best to hamstring the biggest advantage that encumbents have going into their re-elect.
He’s quickly becoming known as ‘the shutdown president’
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
You're too optimistic. The symbolism of freely acting offensive and making elites curdle and tear out their hair is 90% of Trump's appeal. Actual legislative achievements i.e. "deals" are way less important than sticking it to the others in extremely visible ways.
This would make more sense if the people Trump was making curdle and tear their hair out wasn't a huge throng of working class Joes. The "elites" that Republicans love to imagine they're spiting so much are the ones who are the most insulated from this shutdown temper tantrum.
Like that article said that I saw passed around a while back, even the most spitefully-motivated people are waking up to the fact that Trump is "hurting the wrong people" (i.e. them). And he just admitted he's not even getting anything out of it.
Honestly I'm going to call this a win for unionised labour. The ATC Union were kind of the pressure that broke the stalemate and even though the Dems can definitely be hailed for not caving they didn't exactly have to do much other than say no and not break ranks. The pressure wasn't even that high on them: broad public and critical support, a clear idealogical and policy position to take, the moral high ground...
The shutdown was a massive gift to the Dems. They wrapped it up in a bow and sent it to the House Majority Leader on a silver platter. I can't believe what an unbelievably unforced error this was for the GOP and I bet a lot of GOP Senators feel the same way. That's kind of a big deal.
I think the biggest thing the dems did is perfectly craft their message from the outset, then exhibit the discipline to have everyone stay on message. The fact that they started with popular support helped, and this began with an unforced error by Trump ("I am proud to shut down the government" is one for the history books), but the dems played this perfectly.
Maybe we would have won eventually regardless, but we won earlier than we might have, and with a huge bump in popularity for both the dems in general and house leadership in particular.
This is picking off a bad throw and then using it to drive 50 yards for a touchdown.
And we got VAWA extension, which is basically teabagging the opposing quarterback.
Also a day full of Pelosi dunking on Trump, which, I'm out of sports metaphors, but today was pretty good guys.
Trump claiming the shutdown wasn't an unforced error. It was a forced one. Pelosi played him like a fucking ukulele and goaded him into making a dominance play in front of the cameras.
The Democrats did a ton to win this fight. They poked Trump at every step to make him make mistakes, they stayed on message, they stayed unified, kept their eyes on the prize and they played the media game very well to keep the narrative on their side. This is how you play politics well.
He was dumb enough to say that he would force another shut down of he doesnt get what he wants.
During what was essentially his concession speech.
He couldn't do otherwise. He has to dominate. He cannot help himself. He has to pretend this is part of some masterplan to win the long run because the alternative is that he just fucking lost. And to a woman no less.
Some of his supporters will lie to themselves about what happened and use that as an excuse but others will just turn on him because now he's a loser.
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
I've seen a couple conservative takes pop up of "So he opens the government, gives backpay to the workers who were getting hurt, delivers the SOTU which he will use to DESTROY the dems, and then closes the government again" as the 4d chess master redux
It is entirely likely that the next one will be worse. What's even the next thing he cares about that can be blocked? Easter?
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
What Josh Marshall calls "dominance politics" doesn't work if you don't dominate. Getting pushed around by a liberal woman from San Franciso is even worse.
I cannot get over the optics of the president having to wait for her permission to give the state of the union. I’m having trouble thinking of an analogy to explain how bad of an own goal that is.
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
What Josh Marshall calls "dominance politics" doesn't work if you don't dominate. Getting pushed around by a liberal woman from San Franciso is even worse.
Yup. They don't care if he makes a deal or not. His "dealmaking" is not what attracts them to him. That "skill" only matters in the context of him being a winner. Someone who dominates the opposition. They want him to win. To "own the libs". To "hurt the right people". Instead, he lost. It runs counter to his entire appeal.
I haven't felt this optimistic in two and a half years... I don't trust it.
He's absolutely going to look for ways to lash out over this.
I think our biggest danger window comes after we get a clean CR for the rest of the year.
He'll go looking for a "win"
I think he'll try lashing out during the work towards a fullscale CR.
There hasn't been any indication that he'll tolerate anything that doesn't fund his wall, and any movement towards a budget for the rest of the year is going to appear as Another Looming Defeat in his eyes since there's a zero percent chance that there'll be wall funding in it.
(In the meantime, he'll sulk about this for a few days unless Venezuela goes hot or something.)
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
What Josh Marshall calls "dominance politics" doesn't work if you don't dominate. Getting pushed around by a liberal woman from San Franciso is even worse.
I cannot get over the optics of the president having to wait for her permission to give the state of the union. I’m having trouble thinking of an analogy to explain how bad of an own goal that is.
If he or his advisors were actually smart or knew what the fuck they were doing they probably would have preempted Pelosi's letter. Call off the SOTU until the "crisis on the southern border" is being looked at. Don't give Pelosi an opening to deny him something. But they are idiots, so that was that.
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
I've seen a couple conservative takes pop up of "So he opens the government, gives backpay to the workers who were getting hurt, delivers the SOTU which he will use to DESTROY the dems, and then closes the government again" as the 4d chess master redux.
EDIT: Oh right and he declares a state of emergency to build the wall, just also closes the government to teach the dems a lesson or something
Man I really don't want the government to close AGAIN, but if he does it in this way it would have to break off at least some of his support, right? It's so hard to predict what he will actually do, but at least you can count on him to do whatever he does in the dumbest way available?
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
What Josh Marshall calls "dominance politics" doesn't work if you don't dominate. Getting pushed around by a liberal woman from San Franciso is even worse.
I cannot get over the optics of the president having to wait for her permission to give the state of the union. I’m having trouble thinking of an analogy to explain how bad of an own goal that is.
If he or his advisors were actually smart or knew what the fuck they were doing they probably would have preempted Pelosi's letter. Call off the SOTU until the "crisis on the southern border" is being looked at. Don't give Pelosi an opening to deny him something. But they are idiots, so that was that.
I'm not sure you could give anyone a more difficult challenge than convincing Trump that he would be better off canceling a major TV event as a smart political move.
That letter really was a stroke of brilliance on Pelosi's part. Her messaging on the shutdown has been really, really impressive.
Posts
1. It's an open admission that he could have done this at any point in time and didn't have to make people suffer for so long. This completely undermine all his complaining about Democrats, as well as the "both sides" angles that media always strains to provide. Trump started it, Trump ended it. Nobody else shoulders that blame.
2. He got nothing out of it. Absolutely nothing.
3. Because the CR is only temporary, the massive unpopularity of his wall propositions and his crybaby antics will continue to get center stage in news coverage, providing the same ongoing erosion of his popularity and the popularity of the Republican party for doing zilch to keep him from going off the rails. All this without the very real cost of human suffering that the shutdown was taking.
4. The slow roll of this process and early announcement of his plans wildly undermines his claim that border security will be at some point a national emergency, rather than something that could be dealt with using the normal legislative process. It's obvious that Trump's ego is the emergency, not US borders.
5. If for some bizarre reason he decides to go back on signing the CR, he will get booed by everyone, not just Dems.
6. The next shutdown will look even more stupid than this one, because it's on the books that this one didn't work.
This really feels like a profound turning point in his presidency. Trump is facing actual consequences in public opinion and it's painfully clear that he has nobody to blame but his own ineptitude, no matter what who you side with.
Or he would have his in his office.
He offered nothing in exchange for what he wanted. Absolutely nothing. After keeping the government shut down for more than a month. Art of the deal.
Earlier than that. There was a 25 billion deal for DACA that Trump rejected because he was expecting a "red wave"
I think the biggest thing the dems did is perfectly craft their message from the outset, then exhibit the discipline to have everyone stay on message. The fact that they started with popular support helped, and this began with an unforced error by Trump ("I am proud to shut down the government" is one for the history books), but the dems played this perfectly.
Maybe we would have won eventually regardless, but we won earlier than we might have, and with a huge bump in popularity for both the dems in general and house leadership in particular.
This is picking off a bad throw and then using it to drive 50 yards for a touchdown.
And we got VAWA extension, which is basically teabagging the opposing quarterback.
Also a day full of Pelosi dunking on Trump, which, I'm out of sports metaphors, but today was pretty good guys.
And if he didn’t win, he lost...and oh god, we elected Ricky Bobby.
Yes, in his worldview, every interaction is a conflict, and every conflict is a zero-sum conflict.
If he's smart (he's not), he just pretends this never happened and never mentions a wall again. Stone just got rolled and it's likely they're not too far away from rolling on Junior. He's got much bigger things to focus on. Especially after he successfully tanked his popularity with the base and burned up whatever political capital he had left with the congressional GOP with this shutdown.
Unfortunately for him, the news can cover more than 1 story.
I’m really hoping this is as simple as this looks, cause even this wet fart stopgap is better than the shutdown continuing.
If you are explaining you are losing.
Really it was to negate news cycles of air traffic stoppages and no tax refunds
I haven't felt this optimistic in two and a half years... I don't trust it.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
He has no idea what any of this really means, to him it's all just a way to get the TV to say nice things about him. The actual reprecussions of his actions are beyond his grasp, he has no way to relate to what people are actually going through other than some abstract stories that his lackeys tell him. And they're just as out of touch.
This feels like it could end up being one of the big legacies of this debacle: the mythos he's built up around himself as being a master negotiator has been extremely debunked in an extremely public way.
Those of us who've kept away from the koolaid have understood for a long time that the man is actually terrible at making deals. What he considers a deal is really what most people would consider a shakedown. But this event is something that could even get people who are aligned with his views to say, "Wait, what? Why did he do that? That's just dumb." And once enough dyed-in-the-wool Republicans start saying that the emperor has no clothes, well... that will be something.
He's absolutely going to look for ways to lash out over this.
I think our biggest danger window comes after we get a clean CR for the rest of the year.
He'll go looking for a "win"
Come Overwatch with meeeee
Trump claiming the shutdown wasn't an unforced error. It was a forced one. Pelosi played him like a fucking ukulele and goaded him into making a dominance play in front of the cameras.
The Democrats did a ton to win this fight. They poked Trump at every step to make him make mistakes, they stayed on message, they stayed unified, kept their eyes on the prize and they played the media game very well to keep the narrative on their side. This is how you play politics well.
You're too optimistic. The symbolism of freely acting offensive and making elites curdle and tear out their hair is 90% of Trump's appeal. Actual legislative achievements i.e. "deals" are way less important than sticking it to the others in extremely visible ways.
I don't think they will understand it in those terms. For his supporters the problem here is not that he failed to make a deal, it's that he caved. He wussed out. He "got cucked". The Dems got what they wanted and Trump got nothing.
Trump lost. That's his one true sin in their eyes here.
He was dumb enough to say that he would force another shut down of he doesnt get what he wants.
During what was essentially his concession speech.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
What Josh Marshall calls "dominance politics" doesn't work if you don't dominate. Getting pushed around by a liberal woman from San Franciso is even worse.
I've seen a couple conservative takes pop up of "So he opens the government, gives backpay to the workers who were getting hurt, delivers the SOTU which he will use to DESTROY the dems, and then closes the government again" as the 4d chess master redux.
EDIT: Oh right and he declares a state of emergency to build the wall, just also closes the government to teach the dems a lesson or something
I wouldn’t go that far, but he’s really doing his best to hamstring the biggest advantage that encumbents have going into their re-elect.
He’s quickly becoming known as ‘the shutdown president’
This would make more sense if the people Trump was making curdle and tear their hair out wasn't a huge throng of working class Joes. The "elites" that Republicans love to imagine they're spiting so much are the ones who are the most insulated from this shutdown temper tantrum.
Like that article said that I saw passed around a while back, even the most spitefully-motivated people are waking up to the fact that Trump is "hurting the wrong people" (i.e. them). And he just admitted he's not even getting anything out of it.
He couldn't do otherwise. He has to dominate. He cannot help himself. He has to pretend this is part of some masterplan to win the long run because the alternative is that he just fucking lost. And to a woman no less.
Some of his supporters will lie to themselves about what happened and use that as an excuse but others will just turn on him because now he's a loser.
It is entirely likely that the next one will be worse. What's even the next thing he cares about that can be blocked? Easter?
I cannot get over the optics of the president having to wait for her permission to give the state of the union. I’m having trouble thinking of an analogy to explain how bad of an own goal that is.
Yup. They don't care if he makes a deal or not. His "dealmaking" is not what attracts them to him. That "skill" only matters in the context of him being a winner. Someone who dominates the opposition. They want him to win. To "own the libs". To "hurt the right people". Instead, he lost. It runs counter to his entire appeal.
I think he'll try lashing out during the work towards a fullscale CR.
There hasn't been any indication that he'll tolerate anything that doesn't fund his wall, and any movement towards a budget for the rest of the year is going to appear as Another Looming Defeat in his eyes since there's a zero percent chance that there'll be wall funding in it.
(In the meantime, he'll sulk about this for a few days unless Venezuela goes hot or something.)
If he or his advisors were actually smart or knew what the fuck they were doing they probably would have preempted Pelosi's letter. Call off the SOTU until the "crisis on the southern border" is being looked at. Don't give Pelosi an opening to deny him something. But they are idiots, so that was that.
Man I really don't want the government to close AGAIN, but if he does it in this way it would have to break off at least some of his support, right? It's so hard to predict what he will actually do, but at least you can count on him to do whatever he does in the dumbest way available?
I'm not sure you could give anyone a more difficult challenge than convincing Trump that he would be better off canceling a major TV event as a smart political move.
That letter really was a stroke of brilliance on Pelosi's part. Her messaging on the shutdown has been really, really impressive.
The Monster Baru Cormorant - Seth Dickinson
Steam: Korvalain
Federal Register, though typically the next day. Also, it's been impacted by the shutdown.