The chances of 3 generations all being madmen is low. Kim Jong Un isn’t really going for the “madman” act in the same way as his father and grandfather. He reminds me of a Saudi Arabian Prince, sadistic but rational.
The chances of 3 generations all being madmen is low. Kim Jong Un isn’t really going for the “madman” act in the same way as his father and grandfather. He reminds me of a Saudi Arabian Prince, sadistic but rational.
And quite possibly more competent than MBS. Though that's a fucking low bar to clear.
Un is playing the long game. He knows Trump is desperate for a win to make himself feel like a big, strong man, so if he can find a settlement that lets NK keep as much of their toys as possible that he can get the South to agree to somehow, he knows he'll have Trump's approval no matter what, especially if he asks Trump-chan on another date to talk things out and smother him with fake praise and maybe give him another gift to increase his hearts (like the next upcoming visit they have).
JaysonFour on
I can has cheezburger, yes?
+4
Metzger MeisterIt Gets Worsebefore it gets any better.Registered Userregular
Un feels like a much more skillful statesman than his father.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
Jephery on
}
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Easy to say when you're not the one living under the permanent threat
Rationally, while South Korea is threatened by war in the sense of casualties etc, it is not existentially threatened by war at this point. War is not desirable but it is winnable and therefore a path which is open, in a way that it isn't for the North. The North fundamentally does not war as war will lead to its destruction as a system, and they know this.
Furthermore, reconstruction is a massive, massive concern for SK. If they won a war, would they even want to reunify? That would cause massive problems. The financial burden would be astronomical.
Therefore, South Korea has a bit of an advantage at the negotiation table. They can come there saying we want peace, we want to improve relations. If you throw your weight around? We can walk away, we're doing alright with the current situation and we aren't desperate for you back. South Korea is a strong nation, and only getting stronger. I think it's a mistake to read into current events that SK is being pressured by fear into what they are doing. They are doing what they already want to be doing in order to get what they want from it.
The big concern is the nuclear program, because that turns things on their head. So I guess that SK at the moment probably is thinking, concessions for the loss of the program, keeping the power status quo? Yeah that's a good deal.
Rationally, while South Korea is threatened by war in the sense of casualties etc, it is not existentially threatened by war at this point. War is not desirable but it is winnable and therefore a path which is open, in a way that it isn't for the North. The North fundamentally does not war as war will lead to its destruction as a system, and they know this.
Furthermore, reconstruction is a massive, massive concern for SK. If they won a war, would they even want to reunify? That would cause massive problems. The financial burden would be astronomical.
Therefore, South Korea has a bit of an advantage at the negotiation table. They can come there saying we want peace, we want to improve relations. If you throw your weight around? We can walk away, we're doing alright with the current situation and we aren't desperate for you back. South Korea is a strong nation, and only getting stronger. I think it's a mistake to read into current events that SK is being pressured by fear into what they are doing. They are doing what they already want to be doing in order to get what they want from it.
The big concern is the nuclear program, because that turns things on their head. So I guess that SK at the moment probably is thinking, concessions for the loss of the program, keeping the power status quo? Yeah that's a good deal.
And if they are asked to give up too many concessions they might just go nuclear themselves. Counterbalance the NK threat. With the SK science and manufacturing base, they could be there a lot faster than NK is,
Rationally, while South Korea is threatened by war in the sense of casualties etc, it is not existentially threatened by war at this point. War is not desirable but it is winnable and therefore a path which is open, in a way that it isn't for the North. The North fundamentally does not war as war will lead to its destruction as a system, and they know this.
Furthermore, reconstruction is a massive, massive concern for SK. If they won a war, would they even want to reunify? That would cause massive problems. The financial burden would be astronomical.
Therefore, South Korea has a bit of an advantage at the negotiation table. They can come there saying we want peace, we want to improve relations. If you throw your weight around? We can walk away, we're doing alright with the current situation and we aren't desperate for you back. South Korea is a strong nation, and only getting stronger. I think it's a mistake to read into current events that SK is being pressured by fear into what they are doing. They are doing what they already want to be doing in order to get what they want from it.
The big concern is the nuclear program, because that turns things on their head. So I guess that SK at the moment probably is thinking, concessions for the loss of the program, keeping the power status quo? Yeah that's a good deal.
And if they are asked to give up too many concessions they might just go nuclear themselves. Counterbalance the NK threat. With the SK science and manufacturing base, they could be there a lot faster than NK is,
I don't think they really need it. If they wanted it they could get it, but do they want it? Doesn't really feel that way. And of course if they do get nukes, then there's almost no way NK could ever be dissuaded from it's own program ever.
Nuclear weapons are basically good for MAD, in terms of military strategy. But SK doesn't need MAD with NK, because right now it'll handily win a conventional war. Nukes actually wouldn't be very useful on a strategic level because they're indiscriminate and so on, and they wreck infrastructure, which would make unification even harder (mass civilian deaths plus no infrastructure = nightmare for unification). It also would absolutely draw the ire of China, because China does not want a nuke armed SK for various reasons, and SK wants good relationships with China also because of various reasons.
It is in SK's interests for the peninsula to remain denuclearized. It is in their interests for there to be an ongoing peace process where they have an advantage. It is in their interest to push negotiations with Kim, who seems to be relatively rational and open to rapport. I don't believe they're doing any of these things because they are terrified of the North's response to Trump's warmongering. I would actually be curious to see what opinions in SK are on Trump, because I imagine the language and cultural barrier means that most Koreans aren't really aware of just how useless he and his foreign policy is.
As soon as Trump does change that, there's a pretty good chance Japan will arm before South Korea and provide a smaller but more immediately present replacement for the US nuclear umbrella.
It was only like two pages back I was talking about a new era of proliferation, but that doesn't mean everyone nukes up, more that smaller powers will replace the on a regional level what the US has been doing globally.
“Most Koreans strongly believe that South Korea pays a large portion of the cost associated with keeping US troops in this country,” said Kim Jong-ha, dean of the Graduate School of National Defence and Strategy at Hannam University in Daejeon, South Korea.
“They have a reasonable suspicion that President Trump, as a businessman, is not personally committed to the US-South Korea alliance. The main worry of many Koreans is that the US could leave the South exposed by either withdrawing from the peninsula or sitting out any North-South conflict for fear of North Korean nuclear strikes against the US.”
Although South Koreans overwhelmingly support the alliance – 96 per cent viewed it as “necessary” in 2017, according to an opinion poll by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies – many have grown frustrated with Trump’s “America First” posturing.
In an editorial last month, the reliably pro-American, right-leaning Joongang newspaper warned that Washington’s “excessive demands” related to cost sharing risked sparking an anti-US backlash in the country.
Un feels like a much more skillful statesman than his father.
Given some of the interactions people have had with him I wonder it the portrayal in the interview may actually not be that far off, aside from the Katy Perry fetishism. Charismatic but ruthless.
As soon as Trump does change that, there's a pretty good chance Japan will arm before South Korea and provide a smaller but more immediately present replacement for the US nuclear umbrella.
It was only like two pages back I was talking about a new era of proliferation, but that doesn't mean everyone nukes up, more that smaller powers will replace the on a regional level what the US has been doing globally.
I don't know if South Korea would want to rely on Japan given their recent history or the tendency of South Korean governments to whip up sentiment based on that history when things are going wrong.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
If you treat everyone else in the world like they're children who don't know what's best for them you won't always be wrong but you won't have a good batting average.
But really, if our policies in Korea aren't based around supporting what South Korea wants then we're just treating them like a vassal state.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
If you treat everyone else in the world like they're children who don't know what's best for them you won't always be wrong but you won't have a good batting average.
But really, if our policies in Korea aren't based around supporting what South Korea wants then we're just treating them like a vassal state.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't factor in what they want, just that going "well the south koreans are happy!" When NK is getting absolutely everything it wants while giving up nothing is an incredibly goosey position to take.
Because Lets be honest: the only reason that the weapons tests stopped is because they inadvertently crippled their own weapons development site.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
If you treat everyone else in the world like they're children who don't know what's best for them you won't always be wrong but you won't have a good batting average.
But really, if our policies in Korea aren't based around supporting what South Korea wants then we're just treating them like a vassal state.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't factor in what they want, just that going "well the south koreans are happy!" When NK is getting absolutely everything it wants while giving up nothing is an incredibly goosey position to take.
Because Lets be honest: the only reason that the weapons tests stopped is because they inadvertently crippled their own weapons development site.
I called the current peace process a political show because nothing substantive has happened. Everyone gets to show off how diplomatic they are back at home, but nothing changes.
The advantage goes to North Korea since they get more time to get their nuclear program back on track.
Jephery on
}
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
+4
TL DRNot at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered Userregular
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
If you treat everyone else in the world like they're children who don't know what's best for them you won't always be wrong but you won't have a good batting average.
But really, if our policies in Korea aren't based around supporting what South Korea wants then we're just treating them like a vassal state.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't factor in what they want, just that going "well the south koreans are happy!" When NK is getting absolutely everything it wants while giving up nothing is an incredibly goosey position to take.
Because Lets be honest: the only reason that the weapons tests stopped is because they inadvertently crippled their own weapons development site.
That's not as self-evident as you seem to think, even if we accept the premise that Pyongyang is 'getting everything it wants'.
I don't think there's any real regional or global replacement for the US in South Korea, and they are well aware of that.
The South Korean government and military has always made strenuous efforts to keep the US on side and it's forces well integrated in the region with their own (joint exercise, huge numbers of Korean troops embedded with US forces in SK and overseas etc) and in many ways they have historically been natural allies.
South Korea seems concerned by the US' actions recently, and rightly so, but I don't believe it's scared them into trying to promote the peace process. They have always gone back to that table where possible.
I called the current peace process a political show because nothing substantive has happened. Everyone gets to show off how diplomatic they are back at home, but nothing changes.
The advantage goes to North Korea since they get more time to get their nuclear program back on track.
This is an argument for and against the existence of the UN.
This is an important part of diplomacy, because if states are talking amicably they are lowering their chances for military conflict.
The advantage goes to North Korea since they get more time to get their nuclear program back on track.
More time before what happens? Do we have some means of stalling them that currently isn't working?
Well they've held that advantage since they showed that they could develop a viable nuclear weapon and saw the world was unwilling to conduct a military first strike to prevent them from continuing on that course. As long as that status quo continues, North Korea wins.
}
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
If you treat everyone else in the world like they're children who don't know what's best for them you won't always be wrong but you won't have a good batting average.
But really, if our policies in Korea aren't based around supporting what South Korea wants then we're just treating them like a vassal state.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't factor in what they want, just that going "well the south koreans are happy!" When NK is getting absolutely everything it wants while giving up nothing is an incredibly goosey position to take.
Because Lets be honest: the only reason that the weapons tests stopped is because they inadvertently crippled their own weapons development site.
North Korea has not gotten much of anything.
They've gotten the US cancelling military exercises in the region and the leader of the free world Shilling for them as hard as possible with basically zero effort.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
If you treat everyone else in the world like they're children who don't know what's best for them you won't always be wrong but you won't have a good batting average.
But really, if our policies in Korea aren't based around supporting what South Korea wants then we're just treating them like a vassal state.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't factor in what they want, just that going "well the south koreans are happy!" When NK is getting absolutely everything it wants while giving up nothing is an incredibly goosey position to take.
Because Lets be honest: the only reason that the weapons tests stopped is because they inadvertently crippled their own weapons development site.
North Korea has not gotten much of anything.
They've gotten the US cancelling military exercises in the region and the leader of the free world Shilling for them as hard as possible with basically zero effort.
Like I said, not much. None of these things are any actual material benefit. If this is a bridge too far then you're precluding any room for an actual negotiated end to the Korean War.
0
TL DRNot at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered Userregular
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
If you treat everyone else in the world like they're children who don't know what's best for them you won't always be wrong but you won't have a good batting average.
But really, if our policies in Korea aren't based around supporting what South Korea wants then we're just treating them like a vassal state.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't factor in what they want, just that going "well the south koreans are happy!" When NK is getting absolutely everything it wants while giving up nothing is an incredibly goosey position to take.
Because Lets be honest: the only reason that the weapons tests stopped is because they inadvertently crippled their own weapons development site.
North Korea has not gotten much of anything.
They've gotten the US cancelling military exercises in the region and the leader of the free world Shilling for them as hard as possible with basically zero effort.
Sounds like a good thing and an irrelevant thing, respectively.
RE AIPAC and criticism of their lobbying: John Mearsheimer and Stephan Walt took a lot of Shit for publishing the Israel Lobby years ago. If you're interested in that topic (how AIPAC lobbies to affect US foreign policy) I would recommend the article or book version.
Its mostly luck for Un that the South Korean right self-destructed in scandal and its left is willing to use the peace process as a political show at the same time Trump is. The Kim family was always willing to negotiate in the terms Moon and Trump are offering.
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
If you treat everyone else in the world like they're children who don't know what's best for them you won't always be wrong but you won't have a good batting average.
But really, if our policies in Korea aren't based around supporting what South Korea wants then we're just treating them like a vassal state.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't factor in what they want, just that going "well the south koreans are happy!" When NK is getting absolutely everything it wants while giving up nothing is an incredibly goosey position to take.
Because Lets be honest: the only reason that the weapons tests stopped is because they inadvertently crippled their own weapons development site.
North Korea has not gotten much of anything.
They've gotten the US cancelling military exercises in the region and the leader of the free world Shilling for them as hard as possible with basically zero effort.
Sounds like a good thing and an irrelevant thing, respectively.
I'd disagree on the UC cancelling military exercises. Those are necessary to make sure 1) our troops are ready for combat in multi-national conflicts and can coordinate with international coalitions and 2) is a demonstration of strength that supports our allies in the region that wouldn't be able to readily defend themselves against a nuclear attack (read: Japan, South Korea).
Do we think a canceled exercise or two is seriously going to impact our ability to operate there? Do we really expect North Korea to negotiate while we're practicing mass murder next door?
Do we think a canceled exercise or two is seriously going to impact our ability to operate there? Do we really expect North Korea to negotiate while we're practicing mass murder next door?
re: "mass murder", yeah that's kind of how diplomacy works? There's always a threat of military conflict between states, that's the game.
And one or two exercises isn't a serious issue, but when those one or two cascade into multiples or dozens or a loss of an ally then yeah it's a problem.
Do we think a canceled exercise or two is seriously going to impact our ability to operate there? Do we really expect North Korea to negotiate while we're practicing mass murder next door?
re: "mass murder", yeah that's kind of how diplomacy works? There's always a threat of military conflict between states, that's the game.
And one or two exercises isn't a serious issue, but when those one or two cascade into multiples or dozens or a loss of an ally then yeah it's a problem.
Pretty sure the threat of a military escalation is still there and very clear if we don't do an exercise. Military threats are what we're known for.
But really it comes down to if something this minor isn't acceptable how exactly do you expect negotiated peace to ever occur?
Do we think a canceled exercise or two is seriously going to impact our ability to operate there? Do we really expect North Korea to negotiate while we're practicing mass murder next door?
re: "mass murder", yeah that's kind of how diplomacy works? There's always a threat of military conflict between states, that's the game.
And one or two exercises isn't a serious issue, but when those one or two cascade into multiples or dozens or a loss of an ally then yeah it's a problem.
Pretty sure the threat of a military escalation is still there and very clear if we don't do an exercise. Military threats are what we're known for.
But really it comes down to if something this minor isn't acceptable how exactly do you expect negotiated peace to ever occur?
I didn't say it wasn't acceptable. I just didn't think it was necessarily 'good' to not have planned military exercises with allies go through.
I also don't expect a negotiated peace with the DPRK. From a rational standpoint they have no reason whatsoever to give up their nuclear weapons.
I don't get why peace with North Korea should be contingent on them not seeking nuclear weapons. Shouldn't it be contingent upon us not wanting to attack them unless they commit an act of war first, and them not wanting to attack us unless we commit an act of war first? I'm pretty sure that's how peace works.
Posts
And quite possibly more competent than MBS. Though that's a fucking low bar to clear.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
That implies that the peace talks aren't broadly popular among South Koreans.
I'm williing to bet that after 6 decades of sporadic conflict and the threat of their capitol being obliterated the south koreans are desperate for anything that looks like peace.
Kind of like how poor people spend gobs of money on lottery tickets.
Seems kinda patronizing to be honest
Easy to say when you're not the one living under the permanent threat
Furthermore, reconstruction is a massive, massive concern for SK. If they won a war, would they even want to reunify? That would cause massive problems. The financial burden would be astronomical.
Therefore, South Korea has a bit of an advantage at the negotiation table. They can come there saying we want peace, we want to improve relations. If you throw your weight around? We can walk away, we're doing alright with the current situation and we aren't desperate for you back. South Korea is a strong nation, and only getting stronger. I think it's a mistake to read into current events that SK is being pressured by fear into what they are doing. They are doing what they already want to be doing in order to get what they want from it.
The big concern is the nuclear program, because that turns things on their head. So I guess that SK at the moment probably is thinking, concessions for the loss of the program, keeping the power status quo? Yeah that's a good deal.
And if they are asked to give up too many concessions they might just go nuclear themselves. Counterbalance the NK threat. With the SK science and manufacturing base, they could be there a lot faster than NK is,
I don't think they really need it. If they wanted it they could get it, but do they want it? Doesn't really feel that way. And of course if they do get nukes, then there's almost no way NK could ever be dissuaded from it's own program ever.
Nuclear weapons are basically good for MAD, in terms of military strategy. But SK doesn't need MAD with NK, because right now it'll handily win a conventional war. Nukes actually wouldn't be very useful on a strategic level because they're indiscriminate and so on, and they wreck infrastructure, which would make unification even harder (mass civilian deaths plus no infrastructure = nightmare for unification). It also would absolutely draw the ire of China, because China does not want a nuke armed SK for various reasons, and SK wants good relationships with China also because of various reasons.
It is in SK's interests for the peninsula to remain denuclearized. It is in their interests for there to be an ongoing peace process where they have an advantage. It is in their interest to push negotiations with Kim, who seems to be relatively rational and open to rapport. I don't believe they're doing any of these things because they are terrified of the North's response to Trump's warmongering. I would actually be curious to see what opinions in SK are on Trump, because I imagine the language and cultural barrier means that most Koreans aren't really aware of just how useless he and his foreign policy is.
Despite Trump's grumbling, it does not look like he is going to change that.
It was only like two pages back I was talking about a new era of proliferation, but that doesn't mean everyone nukes up, more that smaller powers will replace the on a regional level what the US has been doing globally.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2181765/trump-moon-and-fight-over-bill-us-korea-ties-perfect-storm-kim
Given some of the interactions people have had with him I wonder it the portrayal in the interview may actually not be that far off, aside from the Katy Perry fetishism. Charismatic but ruthless.
I don't know if South Korea would want to rely on Japan given their recent history or the tendency of South Korean governments to whip up sentiment based on that history when things are going wrong.
afaik we honestly have no idea if Un is actually in charge or if he's being controlled by one of several cliques within the Nork government
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
Doesn't mean it isn't accurate.
If you treat everyone else in the world like they're children who don't know what's best for them you won't always be wrong but you won't have a good batting average.
But really, if our policies in Korea aren't based around supporting what South Korea wants then we're just treating them like a vassal state.
I'm not saying that you shouldn't factor in what they want, just that going "well the south koreans are happy!" When NK is getting absolutely everything it wants while giving up nothing is an incredibly goosey position to take.
Because Lets be honest: the only reason that the weapons tests stopped is because they inadvertently crippled their own weapons development site.
North Korea has not gotten much of anything.
The advantage goes to North Korea since they get more time to get their nuclear program back on track.
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
That's not as self-evident as you seem to think, even if we accept the premise that Pyongyang is 'getting everything it wants'.
The South Korean government and military has always made strenuous efforts to keep the US on side and it's forces well integrated in the region with their own (joint exercise, huge numbers of Korean troops embedded with US forces in SK and overseas etc) and in many ways they have historically been natural allies.
South Korea seems concerned by the US' actions recently, and rightly so, but I don't believe it's scared them into trying to promote the peace process. They have always gone back to that table where possible.
This is an argument for and against the existence of the UN.
This is an important part of diplomacy, because if states are talking amicably they are lowering their chances for military conflict.
More time before what happens? Do we have some means of stalling them that currently isn't working?
Well they've held that advantage since they showed that they could develop a viable nuclear weapon and saw the world was unwilling to conduct a military first strike to prevent them from continuing on that course. As long as that status quo continues, North Korea wins.
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
They've gotten the US cancelling military exercises in the region and the leader of the free world Shilling for them as hard as possible with basically zero effort.
Like I said, not much. None of these things are any actual material benefit. If this is a bridge too far then you're precluding any room for an actual negotiated end to the Korean War.
Sounds like a good thing and an irrelevant thing, respectively.
Even Chelsea Clinton is getting in on it.
I'd disagree on the UC cancelling military exercises. Those are necessary to make sure 1) our troops are ready for combat in multi-national conflicts and can coordinate with international coalitions and 2) is a demonstration of strength that supports our allies in the region that wouldn't be able to readily defend themselves against a nuclear attack (read: Japan, South Korea).
re: "mass murder", yeah that's kind of how diplomacy works? There's always a threat of military conflict between states, that's the game.
And one or two exercises isn't a serious issue, but when those one or two cascade into multiples or dozens or a loss of an ally then yeah it's a problem.
Pretty sure the threat of a military escalation is still there and very clear if we don't do an exercise. Military threats are what we're known for.
But really it comes down to if something this minor isn't acceptable how exactly do you expect negotiated peace to ever occur?
I didn't say it wasn't acceptable. I just didn't think it was necessarily 'good' to not have planned military exercises with allies go through.
I also don't expect a negotiated peace with the DPRK. From a rational standpoint they have no reason whatsoever to give up their nuclear weapons.