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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] My Better Brexit Deal Goes To Another School

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Posts

  • BogartBogart I Will Cure You Registered User, Moderator mod
    All bad things that were lies of Project Fear are also truths that have nothing to do with Brexit.

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  • reVersereVerse Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »

    It didn't take long for the Blairites to immediately associate it with Brexit.

    What it really is is the Japanese doing what they were going to do anyway as a consequence of the EU and Japan's Economic Partnership Agreement
    In 2013 EU governments instructed the European Commission to start negotiations with Japan
    and it is not like they are moving those manufacturing jobs to another part of the EU. So as you can see Brexit or no Brexit would have resulted in them moving out of the UK anyway due to reduction tariffs in the EU and possibly labour costs too.

    Two other things, it won't stop production until 2022, three years after Brexit and their EU HQ is still being kept in Berkshire.

    So, it's because of a trade partnership with EU and Japan.

    Britain won't be part of the partnership because of Brexit.

    But it's got nothing to do with Brexit.

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  • SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    edited February 18
    Bogart wrote: »

    It didn't take long for the Blairites to immediately associate it with Brexit.

    What it really is is the Japanese doing what they were going to do anyway as a consequence of the EU and Japan's Economic Partnership Agreement
    In 2013 EU governments instructed the European Commission to start negotiations with Japan
    and it is not like they are moving those manufacturing jobs to another part of the EU. So as you can see Brexit or no Brexit would have resulted in them moving out of the UK anyway due to reduction tariffs in the EU and possibly labour costs too.

    Two other things, it won't stop production until 2022, three years after Brexit and their EU HQ is still being kept in Berkshire.

    So you're just going to ignore the tweet thread by Faisal where he gives several tweets of evidence about how the Japanese have said the customs union is integral to their capabilities in the UK?

    SharpyVII on
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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Are you ok with racism, so long as the person saying it is anti-brexit? Every single person in the group is anti-brexit. For example, here's Chris Leslie:



    Here's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party:


    Is the most crucial question facing the UK the need to deal with Labour’s bigotry? Seems to me that if the pro-Brexit breakway faction spends their first day talking about things other than Brexit, then they are not exactly putting out a clear message of how they are different.

    Eddy
  • LongLiveTheCoreLongLiveTheCore Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    All bad things that were lies of Project Fear are also truths that have nothing to do with Brexit.

    Shall I note all the times car factories have closed down before Brexit such as the Peugot Ryton Plant in 2006?

  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck the search for the means to put an end to things an end to speech is what enables the discourse to continue ~ * ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) excelsior * ~Registered User regular
    edited February 18
    honda have been saying for years that both tariffs and ntbs would cause problems; if you think they didnt price in considerations they literally outlined to MPs in formal submissions to eg BEIS committee in their decisionmaking process....

    these decisions are never "one factor". was brexit and the current uncertainty obviously a factor? yes.

    surrealitycheck on
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  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    edited February 18
    SharpyVII wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »

    It didn't take long for the Blairites to immediately associate it with Brexit.

    What it really is is the Japanese doing what they were going to do anyway as a consequence of the EU and Japan's Economic Partnership Agreement
    In 2013 EU governments instructed the European Commission to start negotiations with Japan
    and it is not like they are moving those manufacturing jobs to another part of the EU. So as you can see Brexit or no Brexit would have resulted in them moving out of the UK anyway due to reduction tariffs in the EU and possibly labour costs too.

    Two other things, it won't stop production until 2022, three years after Brexit and their EU HQ is still being kept in Berkshire.

    So you're just going to ignore the tweet thread by Faisal where he gives several tweets of evidence about how the Japanese have said the customs union is integral to their capabilities in the UK?

    Where are they moving to?

    Perdurabo on
    Bah.
  • EncEnc A Fool with Compassion The Land of Flowers (and Dragons)Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Are you ok with racism, so long as the person saying it is anti-brexit? Every single person in the group is anti-brexit. For example, here's Chris Leslie:



    Here's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party:


    Is the most crucial question facing the UK the need to deal with Labour’s bigotry? Seems to me that if the pro-Brexit breakway faction spends their first day talking about things other than Brexit, then they are not exactly putting out a clear message of how they are different.

    ...He did talk about Brexit? Not a ton, but he certainly highlighted it as a major point.

    Perduraboshryke
  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    edited February 18
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Are you ok with racism, so long as the person saying it is anti-brexit? Every single person in the group is anti-brexit. For example, here's Chris Leslie:



    Here's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party:


    Is the most crucial question facing the UK the need to deal with Labour’s bigotry? Seems to me that if the pro-Brexit breakway faction spends their first day talking about things other than Brexit, then they are not exactly putting out a clear message of how they are different.

    They literally talked about racism and Brexit on their first day. If you don't consider racism a big deal then you do you.

    edit: are there other minorities you're willing to throw under the bus if they get mentioned before your personal preference?

    Perdurabo on
    Bah.
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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    edited February 18
    Enc wrote: »
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Are you ok with racism, so long as the person saying it is anti-brexit? Every single person in the group is anti-brexit. For example, here's Chris Leslie:



    Here's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party:


    Is the most crucial question facing the UK the need to deal with Labour’s bigotry? Seems to me that if the pro-Brexit breakway faction spends their first day talking about things other than Brexit, then they are not exactly putting out a clear message of how they are different.

    ...He did talk about Brexit? Not a ton, but he certainly highlighted it as a major point.

    Not a ton... Kind of the problem I’m pointing out.

    Phillishere on
  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Mr Corbyn said he was "disappointed" the MPs had felt unable to continue working for the policies that "inspired millions" at the 2017 election.
    It is weird how Corbyn keeps puffing his chest over an election he lost

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  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    SharpyVII wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »

    It didn't take long for the Blairites to immediately associate it with Brexit.

    What it really is is the Japanese doing what they were going to do anyway as a consequence of the EU and Japan's Economic Partnership Agreement
    In 2013 EU governments instructed the European Commission to start negotiations with Japan
    and it is not like they are moving those manufacturing jobs to another part of the EU. So as you can see Brexit or no Brexit would have resulted in them moving out of the UK anyway due to reduction tariffs in the EU and possibly labour costs too.

    Two other things, it won't stop production until 2022, three years after Brexit and their EU HQ is still being kept in Berkshire.

    So you're just going to ignore the tweet thread by Faisal where he gives several tweets of evidence about how the Japanese have said the customs union is integral to their capabilities in the UK?

    Where are they moving to?

    Well, if they have to tear down their assembly lines and move them to get tarriff free access, they might as well take them to Japan.

    But if they could keep getting tariff free access by just doing nothing? Maybe the math changes on that a bit.

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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Are you ok with racism, so long as the person saying it is anti-brexit? Every single person in the group is anti-brexit. For example, here's Chris Leslie:



    Here's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party:


    Is the most crucial question facing the UK the need to deal with Labour’s bigotry? Seems to me that if the pro-Brexit breakway faction spends their first day talking about things other than Brexit, then they are not exactly putting out a clear message of how they are different.

    They literally talked about racism and Brexit on their first day. If you don't consider racism a big deal then you do you.

    I missed the bit where the UK was going to face economic disaster if they didn’t deal with Corbyn’s antisemitism in the next few weeks. But keeping a clear and consistent message seems to a problem for the UK in general right now.

  • japanjapan Registered User regular
    The issue with all these closures, stalled investment plans, and business failures is that it's always possible to argue there are other factors. Of course there are, investment decisions are necessarily the sum of the best analysis available of all relevant factors.

    Brexit, however represents a significant shift in where the overall line of viability lies for most businesses, and export focused businesses in particular.

    Honda are the company that has come closest yet to flat out stating that brexit means plant closures and job losses (with the possible exception of Airbus). They've been saying since 2016 that any reduction in access to the single market threatened the viability of their UK operations. We have a government pursuing a policy of reduced access to the single market and lo and behold, plant closures and job losses.

    It's true that the EU-Japan FTA represents a powerful incentive to relocate production back to Japan, but ultimately it's a decision based on where their best round of investment delivers the best return. That is certainly a calculation that would be weighted differently in a world without brexit, where the UK plant and the Japanese plants operate within the same free trade area.

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  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    SharpyVII wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »

    It didn't take long for the Blairites to immediately associate it with Brexit.

    What it really is is the Japanese doing what they were going to do anyway as a consequence of the EU and Japan's Economic Partnership Agreement
    In 2013 EU governments instructed the European Commission to start negotiations with Japan
    and it is not like they are moving those manufacturing jobs to another part of the EU. So as you can see Brexit or no Brexit would have resulted in them moving out of the UK anyway due to reduction tariffs in the EU and possibly labour costs too.

    Two other things, it won't stop production until 2022, three years after Brexit and their EU HQ is still being kept in Berkshire.

    So you're just going to ignore the tweet thread by Faisal where he gives several tweets of evidence about how the Japanese have said the customs union is integral to their capabilities in the UK?

    Where are they moving to?

    Well, if they have to tear down their assembly lines and move them to get tarriff free access, they might as well take them to Japan.

    But if they could keep getting tariff free access by just doing nothing? Maybe the math changes on that a bit.

    People seem to be ignoring that shipping is a factor. Cost but more important lead time. UK was ideal because it was proximate to the EU, had tariff free access and is English speaking (which Honda has to deal with anyways because of the US.)

    H3KnucklesElldrenGnome-Interruptus
  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Are you ok with racism, so long as the person saying it is anti-brexit? Every single person in the group is anti-brexit. For example, here's Chris Leslie:



    Here's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party:


    Is the most crucial question facing the UK the need to deal with Labour’s bigotry? Seems to me that if the pro-Brexit breakway faction spends their first day talking about things other than Brexit, then they are not exactly putting out a clear message of how they are different.

    They literally talked about racism and Brexit on their first day. If you don't consider racism a big deal then you do you.

    I missed the bit where the UK was going to face economic disaster if they didn’t deal with Corbyn’s antisemitism in the next few weeks. But keeping a clear and consistent message seems to a problem for the UK in general right now.

    What other minority groups facing racism would you ignore?

    Bah.
  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Are you ok with racism, so long as the person saying it is anti-brexit? Every single person in the group is anti-brexit. For example, here's Chris Leslie:



    Here's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party:


    Is the most crucial question facing the UK the need to deal with Labour’s bigotry? Seems to me that if the pro-Brexit breakway faction spends their first day talking about things other than Brexit, then they are not exactly putting out a clear message of how they are different.

    They literally talked about racism and Brexit on their first day. If you don't consider racism a big deal then you do you.

    I missed the bit where the UK was going to face economic disaster if they didn’t deal with Corbyn’s antisemitism in the next few weeks. But keeping a clear and consistent message seems to a problem for the UK in general right now.

    What other minority groups facing racism would you ignore?

    I think you actually have a good point, but "have you stopped beating your wife" is not the kind of tone we want to hit in this community.

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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    edited February 18
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Are you ok with racism, so long as the person saying it is anti-brexit? Every single person in the group is anti-brexit. For example, here's Chris Leslie:



    Here's the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party:


    Is the most crucial question facing the UK the need to deal with Labour’s bigotry? Seems to me that if the pro-Brexit breakway faction spends their first day talking about things other than Brexit, then they are not exactly putting out a clear message of how they are different.

    They literally talked about racism and Brexit on their first day. If you don't consider racism a big deal then you do you.

    I missed the bit where the UK was going to face economic disaster if they didn’t deal with Corbyn’s antisemitism in the next few weeks. But keeping a clear and consistent message seems to a problem for the UK in general right now.

    What other minority groups facing racism would you ignore?

    Look, you can keep calling me a racist all you want. Brexit is going to kill people. It is a disaster that is going to gut the world economy. If the breakwawy faction wants to end it, they need a strong clear message to build a national coalition around. Fast.

    Instead, they are indicating that they would rather refight the Labour civil war.

    Phillishere on
  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    I really didn't mean to call you a racist - I just wanted you to think about why Brexit gets to trump concerns about racism, and think about why potentially people let anti-semitism slide. I don't think you're a racist, I think you're worried about the right things. I just think when a heavily pregnant Jewish woman is leaving the party because of bloody racism the reaction shouldn't be why are they talking about x instead of y. I get why she's worried about x. I get why others are worried about x.

    Bah.
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    I really didn't mean to call you a racist - I just wanted you to think about why Brexit gets to trump concerns about racism, and think about why potentially people let anti-semitism slide. I don't think you're a racist, I think you're worried about the right things. I just think when a heavily pregnant Jewish woman is leaving the party because of bloody racism the reaction shouldn't be why are they talking about x instead of y. I get why she's worried about x. I get why others are worried about x.

    Its worth pointing out that people in this thread who oppose Corbyn regularly argue that no other policy point is important in the face of Brexit.

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  • BogartBogart I Will Cure You Registered User, Moderator mod
    Also shit if what people said before the referendum is legally binding for Chukka I'd like several statements by Brexiters to be taken into consideration as well.
    svqo86pa4jqy.jpg

    Farage and his 52-48 result being unfinished business, Rees-Mogg and his desire for a second referendum on the deal, May and Leadsom on their belief that Brexit would cripple the economy, etc.

    It's not beyond the realms of possibility that the way Brexit has been negotiated would lead an intelligent person to conclude that maybe the chance to think again is a good idea.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    edited February 18
    There's, what, a month left on the Brexit timer? A month + a week and half?

    Both the anti-semitism and Brexit issues are serious but one is on a bit of a timer.

    I don't think there's anything wrong with saying "Hey, maybe y'all should be focusing the media on the issue that you've only got like 5 weeks to do something about?"

    shryke on
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  • Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »

    It didn't take long for the Blairites to immediately associate it with Brexit.

    What it really is is the Japanese doing what they were going to do anyway as a consequence of the EU and Japan's Economic Partnership Agreement
    In 2013 EU governments instructed the European Commission to start negotiations with Japan
    and it is not like they are moving those manufacturing jobs to another part of the EU. So as you can see Brexit or no Brexit would have resulted in them moving out of the UK anyway due to reduction tariffs in the EU and possibly labour costs too.

    Two other things, it won't stop production until 2022, three years after Brexit and their EU HQ is still being kept in Berkshire.

    By 2022 tariffs will still be 5% on Japanese cars.

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  • BogartBogart I Will Cure You Registered User, Moderator mod
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    I really didn't mean to call you a racist - I just wanted you to think about why Brexit gets to trump concerns about racism, and think about why potentially people let anti-semitism slide. I don't think you're a racist, I think you're worried about the right things. I just think when a heavily pregnant Jewish woman is leaving the party because of bloody racism the reaction shouldn't be why are they talking about x instead of y. I get why she's worried about x. I get why others are worried about x.

    Its worth pointing out that people in this thread who oppose Corbyn regularly argue that no other policy point is important in the face of Brexit.

    Those people, myself included, aren't standing for the party or having votes of no confidence put forward on their careers by 9/11 truthers who seem to infest their local party. And I don't think those people, myself included, argue that every other policy point is unimportant, just that Brexit makes everything else more difficult, and is most important.

    It's not like those people, myself included, have been saying oh well anti-semitism is bad but who cares now that Brexit is here.

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  • PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    I really didn't mean to call you a racist - I just wanted you to think about why Brexit gets to trump concerns about racism, and think about why potentially people let anti-semitism slide. I don't think you're a racist, I think you're worried about the right things. I just think when a heavily pregnant Jewish woman is leaving the party because of bloody racism the reaction shouldn't be why are they talking about x instead of y. I get why she's worried about x. I get why others are worried about x.

    Its worth pointing out that people in this thread who oppose Corbyn regularly argue that no other policy point is important in the face of Brexit.

    Why is it worth pointing that out? I'll try not to fall down the same hole so instead I will suggest when they say that, they don't mean Brexit is more important than Hate Crimes.

    Bah.
  • PlatyPlaty Registered User regular
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    I really didn't mean to call you a racist - I just wanted you to think about why Brexit gets to trump concerns about racism, and think about why potentially people let anti-semitism slide. I don't think you're a racist, I think you're worried about the right things. I just think when a heavily pregnant Jewish woman is leaving the party because of bloody racism the reaction shouldn't be why are they talking about x instead of y. I get why she's worried about x. I get why others are worried about x.

    Its worth pointing out that people in this thread who oppose Corbyn regularly argue that no other policy point is important in the face of Brexit.

    I think nobody here meant that in relation to antisemitism or racism

  • scherbchenscherbchen Asgard (it is dead)Registered User regular
    I believe we have all settled in for a no deal brexit at this point. Holding out for anything else is merely wishful thinking.

    To think
    pezgen wrote: »
    Ilpala wrote: »
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but...unilaterally extending Article 50 isn't even a thing May can DO, right?

    She can unilaterally revoke it, though

    *crosses fingers in extremely forlorn hope*

    but, unless I am mistaken, if the UK then goes "ok now we are doing this for realsies this time and it is going to be awesome" they will have lost the squandered 2 years lead-up and will restart the clock at how-many-days-is-it-till-March-29-EU-time-0:00-UK-time-23:00

    so you will basically still be in limbo as far as sovereignity (lol) is concerned, freedom of movement until then, drastically less foreign investment, companies leaving, the 40 free trade deals day 1, no opposition and a bunch of shite I can't remember.

    So.... still fooked?

  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    I know that the EU can and would approve an extension, but have said they would only do so if Remain is considered a serious option that is on the table. They're not willing to kick the can down the road (and from their point of view, they've already made an offer that is the only offer they're willing to make). As far as a complete revocation being possible from May's side, that sounds nice but I'm unsure of its veracity. Not doubting you, I've just never heard that.

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  • Bad-BeatBad-Beat Registered User regular
    Tube wrote: »
    As far as a complete revocation being possible from May's side, that sounds nice but I'm unsure of its veracity. Not doubting you, I've just never heard that.

    If you're referring to the UK being able to decide to 'cancel' Brexit without any formal approval from the EU, then yes that is 100% the case after the CJEU ruled as much at the end of last year. It just needs a substantive vote and majority in the House of Commons.

    If you mean: is it palatable politically for May to pull such a stunt? Then no. It's hard to judge voter apathy but such a move is thought to be catastrophic for the Conservatives if they tried it.

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    I think we're down to "choose your catastrophe."

    Sadly, "but what about, now hear me out, no catastrophe" seems to be off the table, for a variety of reasons.

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  • LongLiveTheCoreLongLiveTheCore Registered User regular
    edited February 19
    reVerse wrote: »

    So, it's because of a trade partnership with EU and Japan.

    Britain won't be part of the partnership because of Brexit.

    But it's got nothing to do with Brexit.

    You are right it has nothing to do with Brexit and more like falling car sales and diesel.
    In a tweet, Mr Tomlinson said: "Honda are clear this is based on global trends and not Brexit, as all European market production will consolidate in Japan in 2021."


    By 2022 tariffs will still be 5% on Japanese cars.

    Yet they still aren't shifting production over to the EU.
    honda have been saying for years that both tariffs and ntbs would cause problems; if you think they didnt price in considerations they literally outlined to MPs in formal submissions to eg BEIS committee in their decisionmaking process....

    these decisions are never "one factor". was brexit and the current uncertainty obviously a factor? yes.

    So you are saying without Brexit then Honda would have stayed yes?
    Bogart wrote: »
    Also shit if what people said before the referendum is legally binding for Chukka I'd like several statements by Brexiters to be taken into consideration as well.

    Politicians lie, get with the program and are you arguing that lies by your side are OK if someone on the other side lies? Or maybe you are no better than Farage and co. Maybe Blair's lies about Iraq were OK just because Cameron told a few porkies eh?

    LongLiveTheCore on
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    honda have been saying for years that both tariffs and ntbs would cause problems; if you think they didnt price in considerations they literally outlined to MPs in formal submissions to eg BEIS committee in their decisionmaking process....

    these decisions are never "one factor". was brexit and the current uncertainty obviously a factor? yes.

    So you are saying without Brexit then Honda would have stayed yes?

    I would say that Honda publicly blaming the UK government's chief policy position has absolutely no upside to them and does have possible negative consequences to them. The best action from their position is to wave vaguely at factors that nobody can be blamed for publicly.

    surrealitycheck is saying that privately, when the government asked their opinion they said that Brexit was extremely bad news for them.

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  • SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    Some useful tweets by Faisal who is a Sky correspondent:

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  • LongLiveTheCoreLongLiveTheCore Registered User regular
    edited February 19

    I would say that Honda publicly blaming the UK government's chief policy position has absolutely no upside to them and does have possible negative consequences to them. The best action from their position is to wave vaguely at factors that nobody can be blamed for publicly.

    surrealitycheck is saying that privately, when the government asked their opinion they said that Brexit was extremely bad news for them.

    Sure it would have negative consequences but would no Brexit have stopped
    all European market production will consolidate in Japan in 2021
    ?

    LongLiveTheCore on
  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular

    I would say that Honda publicly blaming the UK government's chief policy position has absolutely no upside to them and does have possible negative consequences to them. The best action from their position is to wave vaguely at factors that nobody can be blamed for publicly.

    surrealitycheck is saying that privately, when the government asked their opinion they said that Brexit was extremely bad news for them.

    Sure it would have negative consequences but would no Brexit have stopped
    all European market production will consolidate in Japan in 2021
    ?

    Nobody not currently employed by Honda can answer that question with any confidence. Anybody currently employed by Honda will absolutely not answer that question publicly.

    That and what it says about how people say different parts of the truth in public and private is entirely my point regarding where the truth likely lies.

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  • milskimilski Their Will comes, at last, to Earth, to the Neath, as a storm crosses the sea. Registered User regular

    I would say that Honda publicly blaming the UK government's chief policy position has absolutely no upside to them and does have possible negative consequences to them. The best action from their position is to wave vaguely at factors that nobody can be blamed for publicly.

    surrealitycheck is saying that privately, when the government asked their opinion they said that Brexit was extremely bad news for them.

    Sure it would have negative consequences but would no Brexit have stopped
    all European market production will consolidate in Japan in 2021
    ?

    Nobody can be certain of that, but there's a big difference between "build in Japan rather than the EU due to eventual low EU tariffs" and "build in Japan rather than maintain production in the UK due to eventual low EU tariffs."

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  • SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    Let's not forget it's not just Honda/car manufacturing.

    Numerous companies across different sectors have moved jobs out of the UK.

    The European Medicines agency for example, 600 highly skilled jobs gone from London.

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  • TubeTube Administrator, ClubPA admin
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    Tube wrote: »
    As far as a complete revocation being possible from May's side, that sounds nice but I'm unsure of its veracity. Not doubting you, I've just never heard that.

    If you're referring to the UK being able to decide to 'cancel' Brexit without any formal approval from the EU, then yes that is 100% the case after the CJEU ruled as much at the end of last year. It just needs a substantive vote and majority in the House of Commons.

    If you mean: is it palatable politically for May to pull such a stunt? Then no. It's hard to judge voter apathy but such a move is thought to be catastrophic for the Conservatives if they tried it.

    I don't think she has a majority to cancel brexit even if she wanted to

    Hobnail wrote: »
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  • surrealitychecksurrealitycheck the search for the means to put an end to things an end to speech is what enables the discourse to continue ~ * ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) excelsior * ~Registered User regular
    edited February 19
    it is impossible to know without being privy to their internal discussions but:

    - production not being moved to elsewhere in the eu merely tells us that in the new trade environment the best place for them to build new facilities is elsewhere.
    - however, existing uk facilities and staff do not require capital outlay, training etc and thus the uk does not need to be the best for them to continue using their existing plants (partly because their capital here is not easily liquidatable...), merely functional and not obviously causing horrible supply chain effects (and note that this is specifically a factor they flagged in communications with mps)
    - thus the question is not so much "did brexit cause them to close the plant versus some unknowable counterfactual universe in which brexit did not happen" but "did brexit make it more likely on balance"

    the answer to that is obviously yes - every single consideration it has introduced for them is negative.
    Tube wrote: »
    Bad-Beat wrote: »
    Tube wrote: »
    As far as a complete revocation being possible from May's side, that sounds nice but I'm unsure of its veracity. Not doubting you, I've just never heard that.

    If you're referring to the UK being able to decide to 'cancel' Brexit without any formal approval from the EU, then yes that is 100% the case after the CJEU ruled as much at the end of last year. It just needs a substantive vote and majority in the House of Commons.

    If you mean: is it palatable politically for May to pull such a stunt? Then no. It's hard to judge voter apathy but such a move is thought to be catastrophic for the Conservatives if they tried it.

    I don't think she has a majority to cancel brexit even if she wanted to

    yes

    the funny thing is if she ends up ruling out no deal, the eu will say VERY loudly that they need a constitutional mechanism to resolve the deadlock in the extension request (even though in extremis they would always grant an emergency request even without because it is win-win for them - it always increases the chance of us staying), and that almost certainly will take the form of a ratification of the withdrawal agreement by referendum. unilateral article 50 revocation will seem to be political suicide, and the referendum sits at the bottom of the pile of illusory options like a hideous toad that everybody pretends to hate but at least hes real

    i suppose the other possibility is a general election... but while that is more desirable to may than the dreaded referendum it guarantees much less

    surrealitycheck on
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  • Desktop HippieDesktop Hippie ATOMIKA! IT’S ME! IT’S DESKTOP HIPPIE!Registered User regular

    I would say that Honda publicly blaming the UK government's chief policy position has absolutely no upside to them and does have possible negative consequences to them. The best action from their position is to wave vaguely at factors that nobody can be blamed for publicly.

    surrealitycheck is saying that privately, when the government asked their opinion they said that Brexit was extremely bad news for them.

    Sure it would have negative consequences but would no Brexit have stopped
    all European market production will consolidate in Japan in 2021
    ?

    I don’t think you’re grasping just how much Honda stressed they couldn’t remain in the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit. They operate a strict just in time system. They hold no more than an hour of stock at any time. They import over 2 million components from Europe every day, using a fleet of 350 trucks. They submitted all this information to the UK government, and made them aware that a 15 minute delay to this system could cost them up to £850,000 a year. They also estimated that putting in the correct arrangements to deal with new customs rules and procedures would take them at least 18 months. That, of course, would be an additional cost, on top of the 10% WTO tariffs they’d be paying on importing the components.

    They left absolutely no room for doubt. They were crystal clear that they could not continue to keep Swindon open in a no-deal UK.

    Here’s some of their warnings as reported in March of last year in a local Swindon newspaper.

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