Honestly, if the global economy tanks again. I'm not sure the Chinese government will have the luxury of trying to clamp down on Hong Kong or Taiwan or continue their fuckery in the South China see. Last I checked, they have some internal issues that they've been trying to keep ahead of and bottled up, which would hit critical mass if the Chinese economy tanks enough.
Honestly, if the global economy tanks again. I'm not sure the Chinese government will have the luxury of trying to clamp down on Hong Kong or Taiwan or continue their fuckery in the South China see. Last I checked, they have some internal issues that they've been trying to keep ahead of and bottled up, which would hit critical mass if the Chinese economy tanks enough.
I wouldn't expect any serious dissent from the mainland population. We gave the Chinese government all the technology it needs to perfect the electronic totalitarian state.
We also built the supply chain to maintain their surveillance state in their country.
It was quite the trade, the future of the Chinese people in exchange for cheap labor so our corporations could undercut our unions.
Edit: Its like Facebook becoming a tool of genocide. We've exported our technology to societies that will not use it for freedom or improvement, but for oppression and death.
Jephery on
}
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
+2
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Honestly, if the global economy tanks again. I'm not sure the Chinese government will have the luxury of trying to clamp down on Hong Kong or Taiwan or continue their fuckery in the South China see. Last I checked, they have some internal issues that they've been trying to keep ahead of and bottled up, which would hit critical mass if the Chinese economy tanks enough.
I wouldn't expect any serious dissent from the mainland population. We gave the Chinese government all the technology it needs to perfect the electronic totalitarian state.
We also built the supply chain to maintain their surveillance state in their country.
It was quite the trade, the future of the Chinese people in exchange for cheap labor so our corporations could undercut our unions.
Edit: Its like Facebook becoming a tool of genocide. We've exported our technology to societies that will not use it for freedom or improvement, but for oppression and death.
Are we going to pretend that most of that stuff isn't Chinese innovation?
Honestly, if the global economy tanks again. I'm not sure the Chinese government will have the luxury of trying to clamp down on Hong Kong or Taiwan or continue their fuckery in the South China see. Last I checked, they have some internal issues that they've been trying to keep ahead of and bottled up, which would hit critical mass if the Chinese economy tanks enough.
I wouldn't expect any serious dissent from the mainland population. We gave the Chinese government all the technology it needs to perfect the electronic totalitarian state.
We also built the supply chain to maintain their surveillance state in their country.
It was quite the trade, the future of the Chinese people in exchange for cheap labor so our corporations could undercut our unions.
Edit: Its like Facebook becoming a tool of genocide. We've exported our technology to societies that will not use it for freedom or improvement, but for oppression and death.
Are we going to pretend that most of that stuff isn't Chinese innovation?
Google seems to like doing business with the Chinese Government, and their employees have repeatedly have had to raise a fuss about "HEY GUYS UH WHAT ARE WE DOING WITH THESE PROJECTS FOR THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT"
So, to some degree, our businesses have been helping entrench a totalitarian state because they like profits more than human rights.
It also would not be the first time US Tech firms assisted in horrific atrocities in the name of "give us more of the money"
See: IBM and Nazi Germany
+1
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
I'm aware of the carcinogenic effects of capitalism, but most of the actual totalitarian tools are Chinese made. Google and Facebook are certainly complicit, but saying that it is American corporations who are responsible for the totalitarian behavior seems... missing the point.
I'm aware of the carcinogenic effects of capitalism, but most of the actual totalitarian tools are Chinese made. Google and Facebook are certainly complicit, but saying that it is American corporations who are responsible for the totalitarian behavior seems... missing the point.
The behavior? No
But if you're providing tools to a known bad actor, you don't get to say "well, they'd have just gotten them anyhow and at least we made a buck off it to spend back home, ya know?"
Honestly, if the global economy tanks again. I'm not sure the Chinese government will have the luxury of trying to clamp down on Hong Kong or Taiwan or continue their fuckery in the South China see. Last I checked, they have some internal issues that they've been trying to keep ahead of and bottled up, which would hit critical mass if the Chinese economy tanks enough.
Honestly, if the global economy tanks again. I'm not sure the Chinese government will have the luxury of trying to clamp down on Hong Kong or Taiwan or continue their fuckery in the South China see. Last I checked, they have some internal issues that they've been trying to keep ahead of and bottled up, which would hit critical mass if the Chinese economy tanks enough.
Mill could you go into more detail on that?
One of the major issues the PRC will have to deal with is the demographic legacy of the one child policy.
The PRC also derives a lot of legitimacy from economic growth, so a slowing rate of GDP growth (looks to be on a downward trend since a peak in 2007) is a potential political threat.
+5
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Google employees have renewed their public protests against “Project Dragonfly,” a censored and surveillance-enabling search app that Google is reportedly building for the Chinese market. An open letter, published on Medium today, says Dragonfly would make Google complicit in human rights abuses by the Chinese government. It urges Google leadership to cancel the project and accuses them of ignoring repeated employee complaints.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
The problem is that this implies that China isn’t capable of making their own tech, and that only with western white man’s guidance can they do the bad things, which is problematic in a lot of ways.
Facebook and Google are not free of guilt by any means, but China would still have gotten here with or without them.
So I am just going to try and point this back to where the conversation should be.
Google has had minimal to no major presence in Mainland China since 2013. Pulling most services in 2010. Project Dragonfly was a test a to see if they could operate in China but was canceled due to internal pressure. Google is not the ones helping the CCP.
Facebook also has minimal presence in China. Officially cut off in 2009 as Uighurs were using it to organize. It supposedly is partially unblocked but not really.
China's mainly uses systems like WeChat and WeiBo. Both are run via semi-state entities. Both are controlled by the Chinese censors. And both feed into the things like the social credit score. These are Mainland developed programs. Weibo is owned by Sina Weibo and WeChat by Tencent.
China's internal internet geography is very different than the US and is mostly functioning under companies that are deeply in bed with the CCP. Not the big American tech firms or the Taiwanese firms.
Hong Kong is the exception that lives outside the Great Firewall which is one reason you can see the development of protest like the current one. Hong Kong as part of the 2 systems/1 state set up maintained till recently more freedom of expression and openness to foreign information. Partially to enable markets that early on China needed.
Also today there is a general strike in Hong Kong that has shut down the city. The problem I see is I am not sure the final goal. Remove Lam? She is replaced by another CCP stalwart/ally. They will never ever get independence and any mention of that will allow the CCP to move in the PLA.
Its a tough spot. Mainland China needs Hong Kong as a way to move international investments funds much much less than they did 20 years ago. They have little to no external pressure on them to not act and save face. They are very very much able to use a free hand up to a point right now.
Internally the economy and one of the three pillars of CCP control is weakening though. But the Mainland doesn't really know what is going on in Hong Kong thanks to the Great Firewall and CCP controlled media. So it is doubtful Hong Kong will effect CCP authority in Mainland China.
Its a rough spot. But very much it needs to be on the top of news and because the shit storm that is the world it isn't.
In an ideal world, mainland China wouldn't force other nations to be a part of them.
Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong. I don't know what to do about it but I'm a little sick of this being the price to pay for a stable world economy.
Tibet was independent.
Xinjiang you get a really complex history but really wasn't independent even in the 1930's but did have a strong pan-Turkic movement for independence.
Hong Kong was never independent but was won by Britain per treaty rights from the Opium Wars and the colonization of China by the West.
And a lot of the CCP legitimacy is based on maintaining China's territory or what they claim is the territory. This is a really complex mix of national embarrassment (they call the colonial period the 100 years of shame) and fear of it happening again if they are too weak.
It isn't an excuse for the CCP's actions, but it is important to think through the reasons that build the foundation of such actions. And it isn't as simple as "China taking other countries." Except Tibet and really at this point China's replacement policy has painfully succeeded in a lot of ways. And did so actually quietly where Xinjiang is doing so loudly.
Nations was the wrong word. I should if used people.
Even though the terms (nation, state, country) are used interchangeably by most, nations wouldn't be a bad word to use here when talking about China. China may be one country but it is made up of many nations (a people with a common ethnicity, language, history etc.) including Han, Uyghur, the Tibetan people, the Yue language groups in the south which are distinct from Han etc. within the current borders which the Chinese state controls.
If you want to be more specific you can use the terms
Nation = grouping of people with common ethnicity, language, culture, history etc.
State = the actual polity which maintains internal and external sovereignty
Country = the geographical unit, the nation(s) and territory a state controls within a given set of borders
India's government has revoked part of the constitution that gives Indian-administered Kashmir special status, prompting fears of unrest.
Article 370 is sensitive because it guarantees significant autonomy for the Muslim-majority state.
The measure was accompanied by a telecoms and media blackout which began on Sunday evening.
India has decided to antagonize Pakistan, heightening the chances of an armed conflict between two nuclear powers! You can sleep more soundly tonight.
They decided to do what they can to fuck over Kashmir, because it wins them votes in other provinces. They care as much about Pakistan here as they do Kashmir or their constitution.
China's central govt gathered Hong Kong elite in Shenzhen today and warned it will intervene if the city's govt can't stop the protests. "The central govt absolutely will not just watch without doing anything"
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Thousands of protesters are occupying Hong Kong's airport in a massive sit-in, blocking all arrivals and only allowing departures. Meanwhile, the police are spraying tear gas outside willy-nilly at various protests that pop up.
MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Protesters fully shut down the airport, so China declared the protesters to be terrorists so severe crackdowns are forthcoming.
I heard a suggestion that China might be planning to try to quell the protests as fast as possible in the hopes that the Taiwanese people would forget before their upcoming elections. @Mazzyx since you seem to have some insights into the region, do you think that sounds likely or possible?
Protesters fully shut down the airport, so China declared the protesters to be terrorists so severe crackdowns are forthcoming.
I heard a suggestion that China might be planning to try to quell the protests as fast as possible in the hopes that the Taiwanese people would forget before their upcoming elections. @Mazzyx since you seem to have some insights into the region, do you think that sounds likely or possible?
@Synthesis Is also a good person to ask about Taiwan related issues
I do love that, though, they'll forget about it before the next election.
Taiwanese people aren't stupid and they aren't goldfish. They aren't going to forget about this.
Protesters fully shut down the airport, so China declared the protesters to be terrorists so severe crackdowns are forthcoming.
I heard a suggestion that China might be planning to try to quell the protests as fast as possible in the hopes that the Taiwanese people would forget before their upcoming elections. Mazzyx since you seem to have some insights into the region, do you think that sounds likely or possible?
Sadly Taiwan isn't my thing but as pointed out we have actual folks in Taiwan on the board.
But yes the declaration of the protestors of terrorist is a heavy escalation by the CCP in rhetoric. And it may be a prelude to a violent military crackdown in Hong Kong. The protestors have in some ways crossed the CCP's redline no longer just calling for the law to go away or the current head of the puppet government to resign but for democracy and elections. It is very very much a dangerous situation that can go south quickly. There are a lot of PLA around Hong Kong and supposedly they have built them up.
On top of that you are getting more pressure on businesses. Cathay Pacific Airlines (HK's airline) has said any employee who protests will be removed from duty/fired. This is due to pressure from China's equivalent of the FAA.
This thread is a great breakdown of Beijing's plans.
Yeah, that's a good succinct thread. The fundamental issue is that China cannot accept a lack of control here and there's no limit to how far they will go to deal with this situation and I don't really think there's anything that can be done from the outside beyond some sort of direct intervention (ie - madness).
yeah i just dont see hong kong ever settling into the fold of Beijings control. It has lived and breathed democracy, and with a young population and growing economic problems, its only going to get more unruly. While we cant really do anything directly to stop it, I think if China cracks down violently in Hong Kong the results could be unpredictable in a way the party is very unfamiliar with. Despite the feeling that the world can do nothing, it might be the people of hong kong who push back in ways the communist party is unprepared for. It could have destabilising effects in the region which may or may not be good for the party
Its really up in the air. If Hong Kong fights openly against violent mainland oppression it could end up becoming a powerful symbol for resistance in the region, and even internally. The ripple effects are just totally unknown at this stage
not to mention if the mainland squeezes too hard they might choke the hk economy more than any protests will. And that could be dangerous to the mainland, as it could put stress on their own hidden problems. Its really hard to tell what could happen, which may be why the party might not go in and crush it, because that could lead to less control not more
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
On the other hand, Tienneman worked pretty well from their perspective.
On the other hand, Tienneman worked pretty well from their perspective.
The lessons Tienanmen do not apply here and I am not sure the CCP are using it as example either. Tienanmen Square was a pretest very much driven by economic and political turmoil of a different type. Hyper inflation and such were the key there. And a very different old guard was still in charge.
This does not mean force and violence will not be used. It is a very different arrangement and in some ways the long term reaction to Tienanmen are playing out here. The current three pillars of the CCP's legitimacy are from post Tianamen policy.
Nationalism, economic development, and state integrity. The last is based on borders and territory not on say non-corruption. Though anti-corruption has been a Xi pushing point.
Don't forget that Hong Kong is still a pretty big economic engine. You kill that, you're taking a serious hit to your economy for a while, as well as alienating some business permanently.
Don't forget that Hong Kong is still a pretty big economic engine. You kill that, you're taking a serious hit to your economy for a while, as well as alienating some business permanently.
Actually this hasn't been as true in the last few years with the Shanghai Index opening. It is still a major center for moving money in and out of China but as a major linchpin it is not where it was 20 or 10 years ago which is part of why the CCP feels they can do what they are doing.
Don't forget that Hong Kong is still a pretty big economic engine. You kill that, you're taking a serious hit to your economy for a while, as well as alienating some business permanently.
In the middle of a trade war with the US, when the US is headed by a narcissistic asshole who would not hesitate to kick you when you are down. Unless you sent him a very nice letter.
When the US itself is driving towards a recession.
When the UK is about to pull off a No-Deal Brexit and collapse another section of the world economy.
Am I missing any of the great depression lineups here?
Edit: To integrate Mazzyx's graph above, that's still about 3% of their GDP. Lets assume it has gone downhill. Make it 2%.
the central government has not yet intervened in Hong Kong and insists they will not do so except in the case of major rioting at Hong Kong's request. According to the PRC, the force amassing at Shenzhen is merely an exercise.
Protesters fully shut down the airport, so China declared the protesters to be terrorists so severe crackdowns are forthcoming.
I heard a suggestion that China might be planning to try to quell the protests as fast as possible in the hopes that the Taiwanese people would forget before their upcoming elections. @Mazzyx since you seem to have some insights into the region, do you think that sounds likely or possible?
@Synthesis Is also a good person to ask about Taiwan related issues
I do love that, though, they'll forget about it before the next election.
Taiwanese people aren't stupid and they aren't goldfish. They aren't going to forget about this.
The short version is: they won't. And not because of this. Agitation about the political status of Hong Kong, and a perception of Hong Kongese sovereignty, were going on during the Ma government, and he was (and is) considered pro-Chinese (though he was born there, and not in Taiwan).
Conversely, while sympathy is universal among the ruling party (it's their formal party line), the same is not necessarily true about the public. After all, the Taiwanese people are not goldfish: they remember the last 30 years the DPP and the Pan Green parties in general spent convincing them, "We're not Chinese, and there's no reason to feel solidarity with people across the strait, whether they're in Hong Kong or Fujian province." Even if you have sympathies with the demonstrators, which many do, it's incredibly easy to be cynical about the DPP capitalization of the event, just like it's incredibly easy to be cynical about the KMT's promotion of the Comfort Women assistance foundation and reparations. None of this is even a poorly kept secret, so there's no reason to think China isn't aware of it considering their knowledge of Taiwanese politics.
Frankly, the suggestion that China's in a rush "because of Taiwan's elections" sounds kind of absurd. China's in a rush because of a little thing called "the undermining of their authority and the potential for costly demonstration-related destruction down the line." The DPP doesn't need Hong Kong to agitate against China, they were perfectly capable of doing it 20 years ago. What outcome would China be hoping for? A victory by the KMT, who also spent agitating about Hong Kong and largely sympathize with the current demonstrators?
I always thought IF the PRC could handle Hong Kong and its numerous other issues well, the Taiwanese public might be eventually persuaded to accept some sort of not-quite-reunification resolution. As things stand, that's becoming a rather hard sell.
It will be interesting to see what happens in Taiwan's general election this year.
If Hong Kong turns into Tiananmen Square 2: Everyone has Smartphones Edition, I can imagine a DPP government using the international fallout and the obvious failure of the one-country two-systems promise to declare independence
yeah i just dont see hong kong ever settling into the fold of Beijings control. It has lived and breathed democracy, and with a young population and growing economic problems, its only going to get more unruly. While we cant really do anything directly to stop it, I think if China cracks down violently in Hong Kong the results could be unpredictable in a way the party is very unfamiliar with. Despite the feeling that the world can do nothing, it might be the people of hong kong who push back in ways the communist party is unprepared for. It could have destabilising effects in the region which may or may not be good for the party
Its really up in the air. If Hong Kong fights openly against violent mainland oppression it could end up becoming a powerful symbol for resistance in the region, and even internally. The ripple effects are just totally unknown at this stage
not to mention if the mainland squeezes too hard they might choke the hk economy more than any protests will. And that could be dangerous to the mainland, as it could put stress on their own hidden problems. Its really hard to tell what could happen, which may be why the party might not go in and crush it, because that could lead to less control not more
I think we shouldn't underestimate how much the Chinese government is capable of stamping on HK and going for full propaganda spam at them and trying to just wait it out. China is powerful enough no one is gonna actually stop them so they can probably keep this going assuming the people that even find out about what's going on in the rest of China care enough to agitate about the issue.
yeah i just dont see hong kong ever settling into the fold of Beijings control. It has lived and breathed democracy, and with a young population and growing economic problems, its only going to get more unruly. While we cant really do anything directly to stop it, I think if China cracks down violently in Hong Kong the results could be unpredictable in a way the party is very unfamiliar with. Despite the feeling that the world can do nothing, it might be the people of hong kong who push back in ways the communist party is unprepared for. It could have destabilising effects in the region which may or may not be good for the party
Its really up in the air. If Hong Kong fights openly against violent mainland oppression it could end up becoming a powerful symbol for resistance in the region, and even internally. The ripple effects are just totally unknown at this stage
not to mention if the mainland squeezes too hard they might choke the hk economy more than any protests will. And that could be dangerous to the mainland, as it could put stress on their own hidden problems. Its really hard to tell what could happen, which may be why the party might not go in and crush it, because that could lead to less control not more
I think we shouldn't underestimate how much the Chinese government is capable of stamping on HK and going for full propaganda spam at them and trying to just wait it out. China is powerful enough no one is gonna actually stop them so they can probably keep this going assuming the people that even find out about what's going on in the rest of China care enough to agitate about the issue.
One of the things we have learned is how well the CCP can insulate the mainland population from information. The HK protest have barely broken into the mainland bubble and when it does it is using the party's line more often than not.
So there is minimal pressure from the main population if any at all to allow to give into anything.
Posts
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
I wouldn't expect any serious dissent from the mainland population. We gave the Chinese government all the technology it needs to perfect the electronic totalitarian state.
We also built the supply chain to maintain their surveillance state in their country.
It was quite the trade, the future of the Chinese people in exchange for cheap labor so our corporations could undercut our unions.
Edit: Its like Facebook becoming a tool of genocide. We've exported our technology to societies that will not use it for freedom or improvement, but for oppression and death.
"Orkses never lose a battle. If we win we win, if we die we die fightin so it don't count. If we runs for it we don't die neither, cos we can come back for annuver go, see!".
Are we going to pretend that most of that stuff isn't Chinese innovation?
Google seems to like doing business with the Chinese Government, and their employees have repeatedly have had to raise a fuss about "HEY GUYS UH WHAT ARE WE DOING WITH THESE PROJECTS FOR THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT"
So, to some degree, our businesses have been helping entrench a totalitarian state because they like profits more than human rights.
See: IBM and Nazi Germany
The behavior? No
But if you're providing tools to a known bad actor, you don't get to say "well, they'd have just gotten them anyhow and at least we made a buck off it to spend back home, ya know?"
Mill could you go into more detail on that?
One of the major issues the PRC will have to deal with is the demographic legacy of the one child policy.
The PRC also derives a lot of legitimacy from economic growth, so a slowing rate of GDP growth (looks to be on a downward trend since a peak in 2007) is a potential political threat.
I don't disagree. I was objecting solely to the lens of "we gave them the tech".
I mean, we've been trying to give them the tech:
https://www.theverge.com/2018/11/27/18114285/google-employee-china-censorship-protest-project-dragonfly-search-engine-letter
Facebook and Google are not free of guilt by any means, but China would still have gotten here with or without them.
Google has had minimal to no major presence in Mainland China since 2013. Pulling most services in 2010. Project Dragonfly was a test a to see if they could operate in China but was canceled due to internal pressure. Google is not the ones helping the CCP.
Facebook also has minimal presence in China. Officially cut off in 2009 as Uighurs were using it to organize. It supposedly is partially unblocked but not really.
China's mainly uses systems like WeChat and WeiBo. Both are run via semi-state entities. Both are controlled by the Chinese censors. And both feed into the things like the social credit score. These are Mainland developed programs. Weibo is owned by Sina Weibo and WeChat by Tencent.
China's internal internet geography is very different than the US and is mostly functioning under companies that are deeply in bed with the CCP. Not the big American tech firms or the Taiwanese firms.
Hong Kong is the exception that lives outside the Great Firewall which is one reason you can see the development of protest like the current one. Hong Kong as part of the 2 systems/1 state set up maintained till recently more freedom of expression and openness to foreign information. Partially to enable markets that early on China needed.
Also today there is a general strike in Hong Kong that has shut down the city. The problem I see is I am not sure the final goal. Remove Lam? She is replaced by another CCP stalwart/ally. They will never ever get independence and any mention of that will allow the CCP to move in the PLA.
Its a tough spot. Mainland China needs Hong Kong as a way to move international investments funds much much less than they did 20 years ago. They have little to no external pressure on them to not act and save face. They are very very much able to use a free hand up to a point right now.
Internally the economy and one of the three pillars of CCP control is weakening though. But the Mainland doesn't really know what is going on in Hong Kong thanks to the Great Firewall and CCP controlled media. So it is doubtful Hong Kong will effect CCP authority in Mainland China.
Its a rough spot. But very much it needs to be on the top of news and because the shit storm that is the world it isn't.
Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong. I don't know what to do about it but I'm a little sick of this being the price to pay for a stable world economy.
Tibet was independent.
Xinjiang you get a really complex history but really wasn't independent even in the 1930's but did have a strong pan-Turkic movement for independence.
Hong Kong was never independent but was won by Britain per treaty rights from the Opium Wars and the colonization of China by the West.
And a lot of the CCP legitimacy is based on maintaining China's territory or what they claim is the territory. This is a really complex mix of national embarrassment (they call the colonial period the 100 years of shame) and fear of it happening again if they are too weak.
It isn't an excuse for the CCP's actions, but it is important to think through the reasons that build the foundation of such actions. And it isn't as simple as "China taking other countries." Except Tibet and really at this point China's replacement policy has painfully succeeded in a lot of ways. And did so actually quietly where Xinjiang is doing so loudly.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-49231619
India has decided to antagonize Pakistan, heightening the chances of an armed conflict between two nuclear powers! You can sleep more soundly tonight.
Even though the terms (nation, state, country) are used interchangeably by most, nations wouldn't be a bad word to use here when talking about China. China may be one country but it is made up of many nations (a people with a common ethnicity, language, history etc.) including Han, Uyghur, the Tibetan people, the Yue language groups in the south which are distinct from Han etc. within the current borders which the Chinese state controls.
If you want to be more specific you can use the terms
Nation = grouping of people with common ethnicity, language, culture, history etc.
State = the actual polity which maintains internal and external sovereignty
Country = the geographical unit, the nation(s) and territory a state controls within a given set of borders
But generally people use them interchangeably.
They decided to do what they can to fuck over Kashmir, because it wins them votes in other provinces. They care as much about Pakistan here as they do Kashmir or their constitution.
WSJ article:
Meanwhile in Pakistan over the last three days, the Indian ambassador has been expelled, trade has been blocked with India, and all public transportation links have been cut. The border is still technically open, at one location, where about 200 people cross a day, but tensions are still rising.
I heard a suggestion that China might be planning to try to quell the protests as fast as possible in the hopes that the Taiwanese people would forget before their upcoming elections. @Mazzyx since you seem to have some insights into the region, do you think that sounds likely or possible?
@Synthesis Is also a good person to ask about Taiwan related issues
I do love that, though, they'll forget about it before the next election.
Taiwanese people aren't stupid and they aren't goldfish. They aren't going to forget about this.
Sadly Taiwan isn't my thing but as pointed out we have actual folks in Taiwan on the board.
But yes the declaration of the protestors of terrorist is a heavy escalation by the CCP in rhetoric. And it may be a prelude to a violent military crackdown in Hong Kong. The protestors have in some ways crossed the CCP's redline no longer just calling for the law to go away or the current head of the puppet government to resign but for democracy and elections. It is very very much a dangerous situation that can go south quickly. There are a lot of PLA around Hong Kong and supposedly they have built them up.
On top of that you are getting more pressure on businesses. Cathay Pacific Airlines (HK's airline) has said any employee who protests will be removed from duty/fired. This is due to pressure from China's equivalent of the FAA.
This thread is a great breakdown of Beijing's plans.
This thread I stole from my friend who works Congress researching China.
His conclusion here is the biggest thing imo:
It's a pretty abject demonstration of how big a problem China is gonna be.
Its really up in the air. If Hong Kong fights openly against violent mainland oppression it could end up becoming a powerful symbol for resistance in the region, and even internally. The ripple effects are just totally unknown at this stage
not to mention if the mainland squeezes too hard they might choke the hk economy more than any protests will. And that could be dangerous to the mainland, as it could put stress on their own hidden problems. Its really hard to tell what could happen, which may be why the party might not go in and crush it, because that could lead to less control not more
theres a lot different about the two situations though
The lessons Tienanmen do not apply here and I am not sure the CCP are using it as example either. Tienanmen Square was a pretest very much driven by economic and political turmoil of a different type. Hyper inflation and such were the key there. And a very different old guard was still in charge.
This does not mean force and violence will not be used. It is a very different arrangement and in some ways the long term reaction to Tienanmen are playing out here. The current three pillars of the CCP's legitimacy are from post Tianamen policy.
Nationalism, economic development, and state integrity. The last is based on borders and territory not on say non-corruption. Though anti-corruption has been a Xi pushing point.
Actually this hasn't been as true in the last few years with the Shanghai Index opening. It is still a major center for moving money in and out of China but as a major linchpin it is not where it was 20 or 10 years ago which is part of why the CCP feels they can do what they are doing.
https://www.vox.com/2014/9/28/6857567/hong-kong-used-to-be-18-percent-of-chinas-gdp-now-its-3-percent
This is 5 years ago. It hasn't gotten better.
In the middle of a trade war with the US, when the US is headed by a narcissistic asshole who would not hesitate to kick you when you are down. Unless you sent him a very nice letter.
When the US itself is driving towards a recession.
When the UK is about to pull off a No-Deal Brexit and collapse another section of the world economy.
Am I missing any of the great depression lineups here?
Edit: To integrate Mazzyx's graph above, that's still about 3% of their GDP. Lets assume it has gone downhill. Make it 2%.
Chinese People's Armed Police have deployed dozens of trucks and heavy machinery to Shenzhen on the border of Hong Kong: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3022479/chinese-armed-police-truck-convoy-rolls-city-near-hong-kong
the central government has not yet intervened in Hong Kong and insists they will not do so except in the case of major rioting at Hong Kong's request. According to the PRC, the force amassing at Shenzhen is merely an exercise.
Update: the deployment at Shenzhen includes at least a dozen Type 92 Armored Personnel Carriers, although their 25mm main guns appear to have been removed.
The short version is: they won't. And not because of this. Agitation about the political status of Hong Kong, and a perception of Hong Kongese sovereignty, were going on during the Ma government, and he was (and is) considered pro-Chinese (though he was born there, and not in Taiwan).
Conversely, while sympathy is universal among the ruling party (it's their formal party line), the same is not necessarily true about the public. After all, the Taiwanese people are not goldfish: they remember the last 30 years the DPP and the Pan Green parties in general spent convincing them, "We're not Chinese, and there's no reason to feel solidarity with people across the strait, whether they're in Hong Kong or Fujian province." Even if you have sympathies with the demonstrators, which many do, it's incredibly easy to be cynical about the DPP capitalization of the event, just like it's incredibly easy to be cynical about the KMT's promotion of the Comfort Women assistance foundation and reparations. None of this is even a poorly kept secret, so there's no reason to think China isn't aware of it considering their knowledge of Taiwanese politics.
Frankly, the suggestion that China's in a rush "because of Taiwan's elections" sounds kind of absurd. China's in a rush because of a little thing called "the undermining of their authority and the potential for costly demonstration-related destruction down the line." The DPP doesn't need Hong Kong to agitate against China, they were perfectly capable of doing it 20 years ago. What outcome would China be hoping for? A victory by the KMT, who also spent agitating about Hong Kong and largely sympathize with the current demonstrators?
It will be interesting to see what happens in Taiwan's general election this year.
I think we shouldn't underestimate how much the Chinese government is capable of stamping on HK and going for full propaganda spam at them and trying to just wait it out. China is powerful enough no one is gonna actually stop them so they can probably keep this going assuming the people that even find out about what's going on in the rest of China care enough to agitate about the issue.
One of the things we have learned is how well the CCP can insulate the mainland population from information. The HK protest have barely broken into the mainland bubble and when it does it is using the party's line more often than not.
So there is minimal pressure from the main population if any at all to allow to give into anything.
It would permanently discredit One Country, Two Systems which is what the PRC has always held out as the the option for unification.