I had actually been imagining up to this point parliament would pull us back from the brink at the last minute but apparently not. What Bogart said is correct from what I can see, the last point at which we could have no confidenced Boris and come up with another plan has passed and he knows it. We could still no confidence him but not in time to stop no deal. It goes without saying I'm utterly disgusted with the entire parliament. The Tory rebels for failing to find their balls. The remain parties for not making a bigger deal of this time limit or simply allowing themselves to be out manoeuvred by Boris, the Labour turncoats who voted with the government every step of the way to cancel out the small number of Tories who did see sense and most of all more than anything else Corbyns complete refusal to oppose a policy he clearly wants to happen.
I'm going to have to tune out the news for a few months. I think watching the Tory pantomime negotiations and Corbyns "real fight starts now" crap will actually cause me to have a stroke. I'll tune back in when it's time for Scotland to vote to leave the UK.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
The obvious solution to that sort of crass machination isn’t the queen: it’s a cross-party interim government with the sole purpose of pulling us out from under the sword of Damocles that is the October deadline and calling a general election.
Edit: and any MP who doesn’t want a no-deal exit needs to be planning this shit now.
Technically, they should have planned this literal years ago.
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ElldrenIs a woman dammitceterum censeoRegistered Userregular
The obvious solution to that sort of crass machination isn’t the queen: it’s a cross-party interim government with the sole purpose of pulling us out from under the sword of Damocles that is the October deadline and calling a general election.
Edit: and any MP who doesn’t want a no-deal exit needs to be planning this shit now.
Technically, they should have planned this literal years ago.
The obvious solution to that sort of crass machination isn’t the queen: it’s a cross-party interim government with the sole purpose of pulling us out from under the sword of Damocles that is the October deadline and calling a general election.
But by the rules, he can keep that from happening, can't he? If they do manage a no-confidence vote, he can refuse to step down, call an election that's just too late for them to do anything, and then it's all fucked.
No, a no confidence vote results in a 14 day period when he can try and form an alternative government. Other people in Parliament can try and form an alternative government as well, and if they can get a working majority of MPs to sign up then they can go to the Queen and say hey we're the new government.
I suspect if they did they'd need to be able to tell people they'd call an election asap, but it'd be a way of stopping Johnson from dicking about with election dates and enforcing a no deal Brexit.
No confidence results in a 14 day period of people scrabbling around to form a new working majority.
A dissolution of parliament results in an election held not more than 25 days later.
The second thing does not follow immediately after the first, and is at the mercy of the PM, so the one chance of stopping him from dicking around is that 14 day period. The reason I think it's unlikely to work is that the leader of the opposition is Corbyn, who has trouble leading his own MPs, let alone a cross-party coalition. Once again, opposition to Brexit is hampered by the opposition being unusually useless.
It just boggles my mind how fast everything has gone to shit since 2014. Like it's almost comical the contrast between then and now. There was just no way to know back then how fucked everything would get because almost every step of the way to bring us here has been so unlikely that all of it strung together sounded like complete insanity back then.
I had actually been imagining up to this point parliament would pull us back from the brink at the last minute but apparently not. What Bogart said is correct from what I can see, the last point at which we could have no confidenced Boris and come up with another plan has passed and he knows it. We could still no confidence him but not in time to stop no deal.
If an alternative working majority can sort itself out in the 14 day period they can replace him and stop no deal. They would be on shaky ground to do anything other than call an immediate election, though, or possibly asking for an extension so an election or a second referendum can be held. They certainly wouldn't be able to see out a Parliamentary term or anything. It'd purely be a way of nobbling Johnson before he could perform any jiggery-pokery.
I think this is unlikely, but it's not impossible.
I don't see it happening. If the political will or ability to stop no deal brexit existed it would have happened by now. We basically need to Boris and Corbyn to simultaneously drop dead of heart attacks and be replaced by less insane and stupid people. Since no such people exist in the upper echelons of either part right now even that wouldn't help us much.
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ElldrenIs a woman dammitceterum censeoRegistered Userregular
I had actually been imagining up to this point parliament would pull us back from the brink at the last minute but apparently not. What Bogart said is correct from what I can see, the last point at which we could have no confidenced Boris and come up with another plan has passed and he knows it. We could still no confidence him but not in time to stop no deal.
If an alternative working majority can sort itself out in the 14 day period they can replace him and stop no deal. They would be on shaky ground to do anything other than call an immediate election, though, or possibly asking for an extension so an election or a second referendum can be held. They certainly wouldn't be able to see out a Parliamentary term or anything. It'd purely be a way of nobbling Johnson before he could perform any jiggery-pokery.
I think this is unlikely, but it's not impossible.
The only way I can see it happen is if MPs work out the details right now, before a no-confidence motion is passed.
I also see no way anyone other than a no-hope backbencher gets to be PM in that situation. Hell it may even be an independent life peer or something similarly crazy.
The second thing does not follow immediately after the first, and is at the mercy of the PM, so the one chance of stopping him from dicking around is that 14 day period. The reason I think it's unlikely to work is that the leader of the opposition is Corbyn, who has trouble leading his own MPs, let alone a cross-party coalition. Once again, opposition to Brexit is hampered by the opposition being unusually useless.
In this case I think it's hampered by essentially requiring Corbyn to be opposed to brexit when he's pretty clearly not.
Corbyn isn't going to get a majority of Parliament to put him in as even a temporary PM, but he's also probably unwilling to back any temporary government that puts forward someone else. He'll take at least enough Labour MPs with him to make it impossible. The overwhelming majority of Tory MPs now appear willing to back a no deal Brexit come hell or high water and will follow Johnson out of fear of looking disloyal in front of their members.
Let's say 30 Tories back a government of national unity, and I think that's putting it very optimistically. It would only take the same number of Labour MPs unwilling to back it to scotch it entirely, and that's assuming the SNP, Lib Dems and every Independent MP was already on board.
I had actually been imagining up to this point parliament would pull us back from the brink at the last minute but apparently not. What Bogart said is correct from what I can see, the last point at which we could have no confidenced Boris and come up with another plan has passed and he knows it. We could still no confidence him but not in time to stop no deal.
If an alternative working majority can sort itself out in the 14 day period they can replace him and stop no deal. They would be on shaky ground to do anything other than call an immediate election, though, or possibly asking for an extension so an election or a second referendum can be held. They certainly wouldn't be able to see out a Parliamentary term or anything. It'd purely be a way of nobbling Johnson before he could perform any jiggery-pokery.
I think this is unlikely, but it's not impossible.
The only way I can see it happen is if MPs work out the details right now, before a no-confidence motion is passed.
I also see no way anyone other than a no-hope backbencherLord Buckethead gets to be PM in that situation. Hell it may even be an independent life peer or something similarly crazy.
Gotta look on the bright side here.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
Corbyn isn't going to get a majority of Parliament to put him in as even a temporary PM, but he's also probably unwilling to back any temporary government that puts forward someone else. He'll take at least enough Labour MPs with him to make it impossible. The overwhelming majority of Tory MPs now appear willing to back a no deal Brexit come hell or high water and will follow Johnson out of fear of looking disloyal in front of their members.
Let's say 30 Tories back a government of national unity, and I think that's putting it very optimistically. It would only take the same number of Labour MPs unwilling to back it to scotch it entirely, and that's assuming the SNP, Lib Dems and every Independent MP was already on board.
I’m sure I’ve read / heard that 24 Labour MPs have said they will back a no deal Brexit.
I’m reasonably sure that if an election occurred close to the deadline, then the EU would grant an extension for that to get sorted before seeing who got into power (if it ends up being the Tories we won’t get another).
Pretty amusing seeing the Tories are now pushing it’s the EU not wanting to negotiate a new deal.
Corbyn isn't going to get a majority of Parliament to put him in as even a temporary PM, but he's also probably unwilling to back any temporary government that puts forward someone else. He'll take at least enough Labour MPs with him to make it impossible. The overwhelming majority of Tory MPs now appear willing to back a no deal Brexit come hell or high water and will follow Johnson out of fear of looking disloyal in front of their members.
Let's say 30 Tories back a government of national unity, and I think that's putting it very optimistically. It would only take the same number of Labour MPs unwilling to back it to scotch it entirely, and that's assuming the SNP, Lib Dems and every Independent MP was already on board.
I’m sure I’ve read / heard that 24 Labour MPs have said they will back a no deal Brexit.
I’m reasonably sure that if an election occurred close to the deadline, then the EU would grant an extension for that to get sorted before seeing who got into power (if it ends up being the Tories we won’t get another).
Pretty amusing seeing the Tories are now pushing it’s the EU not wanting to negotiate a new deal.
I've seen "up to 30" who would defy the whip to vote for a deal, and "8 to 10" who would vote for No Deal rather than revoke article 50. Which sounds about right. Though I suspect the "would vote for a deal" numbers are soft, and that most of the No Deal lot would probably vote for another extension over no deal (it seems to be No Brexit they object to, rather than saying no deal is actually a good idea).
Given a government working majority of, er, one, it really depends how many centrist Tories would break cover and defect, abstain or defy the whip to prevent economic cataclysm. Probably not as many as I'd hope but quite probably enough.
No-one has united the country (well, England; apologies to rUK) more than him in years. Probably decades, to be fair.
I honestly think that one of the reasons the country is so decided is because we always compete in sporting events as England, Scotland etc. If we were always team UK we'd be probably more united.
Which is a bit of a sour note for some, particularly Northern Ireland. Because we're Team GB for branding purposes but officially it's Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
I’m reasonably sure that if an election occurred close to the deadline, then the EU would grant an extension for that to get sorted before seeing who got into power (if it ends up being the Tories we won’t get another).
They might offer one, but the way things stand, Boris would turn it down. As I understand it, they can't force an extension.
Which is a bit of a sour note for some, particularly Northern Ireland. Because we're Team GB for branding purposes but officially it's Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
It really should be Team UK, in events where NI is teamed up with GB.
That's quality timing. Corbyns defenders are upset over Sturgeons comments today that Corbyn will be almost as responsible as Johnson and May if we crash out with no deal. Fucking Labour.
i don't know how anyone could consider labour a remain party at this point
They aren't, and haven't been. It seems to be a radically stupid position to take to me.
Unless youre pro leave. Then it makes perfect sense to suggest Labour is the remain party
Labour hasn't at any time since the stupidity began come down strongly for remain. Corbyn still thinks he can get in charge and some how manage a perfect brexit. And I feel half the UK are just being told to piss up a rope.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
i don't know how anyone could consider labour a remain party at this point
They aren't, and haven't been. It seems to be a radically stupid position to take to me.
Unless youre pro leave. Then it makes perfect sense to suggest Labour is the remain party
Labour hasn't at any time since the stupidity began come down strongly for remain. Corbyn still thinks he can get in charge and some how manage a perfect brexit. And I feel half the UK are just being told to piss up a rope.
Yes. I know. But if youre pro leave then suggesting that labour is the remain parry is the optimal strategy if you want to leave.
It's being reported the Times and the Guardian (as an aside) that Dominic Cummings believes BoJo will ignore the result of a confidence vote and push on with no deal.
Boris Johnson would refuse to resign even after losing a confidence vote so he could force through a no-deal Brexit on October 31, under plans being considered by Downing Street.
Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s most senior aide, told colleagues last week that Mr Johnson would not quit if Tory Remainers voted with Labour to bring down the government.
The Times has been told that Mr Johnson could stay on as prime minister even if Tory MPs were able to form a “government of national unity” opposed to a no-deal Brexit. Mr Johnson would ignore the result of the confidence vote and call a “people v politicians” general election to be held shortly after Britain had left the EU.
Cummings is a dangerous asshole and Boris is craven compulsive liar and narcissist so it's not a shock they'd consider this.
So, uh
I know that we're in a continual state of political crisis at the moment, but Johnson trying to pull this would absolutely be a political crisis, right?
I'm pretty sure stopping Boris from doing it would be one of the few "Queen would be allowed to wield the power she has as Queen and get away with it," scenarios.
Yup I think that would be a clear cut legit case for Mum to come in and put her small foot down about this issue. It would be in deep enough political waters already that her asserting her authority would not make the issue worse than it already would be.
i don't know how anyone could consider labour a remain party at this point
They aren't, and haven't been. It seems to be a radically stupid position to take to me.
Unless youre pro leave. Then it makes perfect sense to suggest Labour is the remain party
Labour hasn't at any time since the stupidity began come down strongly for remain. Corbyn still thinks he can get in charge and some how manage a perfect brexit. And I feel half the UK are just being told to piss up a rope.
Yes. I know. But if youre pro leave then suggesting that labour is the remain parry is the optimal strategy if you want to leave.
Yes, outright lying has been a very successful strategy since this whole thing began.
Looks like everything is going to depend on the run up to the Labour Conference. With Remain/Revoke being pushed as one of the big things to be debated at the party level more explicitly than last time, but each council seems to have a FPTP system for nominating a topic to be considered - so R/R on Brexit is being pitted against Momentum's Green New Deal.
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I'm going to have to tune out the news for a few months. I think watching the Tory pantomime negotiations and Corbyns "real fight starts now" crap will actually cause me to have a stroke. I'll tune back in when it's time for Scotland to vote to leave the UK.
Technically, they should have planned this literal years ago.
I mean obviously.
No, a no confidence vote results in a 14 day period when he can try and form an alternative government. Other people in Parliament can try and form an alternative government as well, and if they can get a working majority of MPs to sign up then they can go to the Queen and say hey we're the new government.
I suspect if they did they'd need to be able to tell people they'd call an election asap, but it'd be a way of stopping Johnson from dicking about with election dates and enforcing a no deal Brexit.
No confidence results in a 14 day period of people scrabbling around to form a new working majority.
A dissolution of parliament results in an election held not more than 25 days later.
The second thing does not follow immediately after the first, and is at the mercy of the PM, so the one chance of stopping him from dicking around is that 14 day period. The reason I think it's unlikely to work is that the leader of the opposition is Corbyn, who has trouble leading his own MPs, let alone a cross-party coalition. Once again, opposition to Brexit is hampered by the opposition being unusually useless.
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If an alternative working majority can sort itself out in the 14 day period they can replace him and stop no deal. They would be on shaky ground to do anything other than call an immediate election, though, or possibly asking for an extension so an election or a second referendum can be held. They certainly wouldn't be able to see out a Parliamentary term or anything. It'd purely be a way of nobbling Johnson before he could perform any jiggery-pokery.
I think this is unlikely, but it's not impossible.
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The only way I can see it happen is if MPs work out the details right now, before a no-confidence motion is passed.
I also see no way anyone other than a no-hope backbencher gets to be PM in that situation. Hell it may even be an independent life peer or something similarly crazy.
Let's say 30 Tories back a government of national unity, and I think that's putting it very optimistically. It would only take the same number of Labour MPs unwilling to back it to scotch it entirely, and that's assuming the SNP, Lib Dems and every Independent MP was already on board.
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Gotta look on the bright side here.
No-one has united the country (well, England; apologies to rUK) more than him in years. Probably decades, to be fair.
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he does still turn us on, to be fair.
I’m sure I’ve read / heard that 24 Labour MPs have said they will back a no deal Brexit.
I’m reasonably sure that if an election occurred close to the deadline, then the EU would grant an extension for that to get sorted before seeing who got into power (if it ends up being the Tories we won’t get another).
Pretty amusing seeing the Tories are now pushing it’s the EU not wanting to negotiate a new deal.
I've seen "up to 30" who would defy the whip to vote for a deal, and "8 to 10" who would vote for No Deal rather than revoke article 50. Which sounds about right. Though I suspect the "would vote for a deal" numbers are soft, and that most of the No Deal lot would probably vote for another extension over no deal (it seems to be No Brexit they object to, rather than saying no deal is actually a good idea).
Given a government working majority of, er, one, it really depends how many centrist Tories would break cover and defect, abstain or defy the whip to prevent economic cataclysm. Probably not as many as I'd hope but quite probably enough.
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I honestly think that one of the reasons the country is so decided is because we always compete in sporting events as England, Scotland etc. If we were always team UK we'd be probably more united.
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Which is a bit of a sour note for some, particularly Northern Ireland. Because we're Team GB for branding purposes but officially it's Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
They might offer one, but the way things stand, Boris would turn it down. As I understand it, they can't force an extension.
F1 drivers/teams as well, when & where it applies.
But Solar is right, in many we don't, we're split into the constituent nations. And obviously football is the biggest one by a mile.
It really should be Team UK, in events where NI is teamed up with GB.
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Tl;dw: RLB says Labour will not countenance a government of national unity
They aren't, and haven't been. It seems to be a radically stupid position to take to me.
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Unless youre pro leave. Then it makes perfect sense to suggest Labour is the remain party
Better to reign in Hell and all that.
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Labour hasn't at any time since the stupidity began come down strongly for remain. Corbyn still thinks he can get in charge and some how manage a perfect brexit. And I feel half the UK are just being told to piss up a rope.
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Yes. I know. But if youre pro leave then suggesting that labour is the remain parry is the optimal strategy if you want to leave.
Yup I think that would be a clear cut legit case for Mum to come in and put her small foot down about this issue. It would be in deep enough political waters already that her asserting her authority would not make the issue worse than it already would be.
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So you're telling me there's a chance.
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Yes, outright lying has been a very successful strategy since this whole thing began.
King Arthur would probably have trouble making headway with the staunchest Brexiteers on account of being Welsh.
Saint George was Turkish/Greek. No doubt they'd want to stop him coming in too.
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