Weak steering currents & stalling storms should never be trusted.
With 72 hours before Dorian turns north, even a 1 mph error in the storm's speed until then could result in a 72 mile error in how far west Dorian gets.
Stay vigilant. More changes could occur. It's a tough one.
Levi Cowan is a meteorology grad student who runs a website with storm modeling tools.
Don't take down your shutters or return supplies just yet, though I doubt anyone on the board is doing that.
Holy shit, Zavian. You stay safe out there in Mad Max land.
I was finally able to get gas! Since I was waiting there for 6+ hours they let me get first dibs once the fuel truck came. Now I'm good on gas, have plenty of water (including some frozen in fridge in case power goes out), plenty of food, some beer and herbal supplements. Now it's time to sit back and wait out Dorian, woooo! (and hope a tree doesn't fall on my truck!)
I just thought, do you have a laptop with decent battery life for emergency CK2 games?
Holy shit, Zavian. You stay safe out there in Mad Max land.
I was finally able to get gas! Since I was waiting there for 6+ hours they let me get first dibs once the fuel truck came. Now I'm good on gas, have plenty of water (including some frozen in fridge in case power goes out), plenty of food, some beer and herbal supplements. Now it's time to sit back and wait out Dorian, woooo! (and hope a tree doesn't fall on my truck!)
I just thought, do you have a laptop with decent battery life for emergency CK2 games?
extra laptop battery, also a PSP Go with Resident Evil 2 + 3 for some blackout spoops
Yeah, I'm a bit surprised they had it lingering as a cat-4 for several days to be honest, while sitting under basically all the conditions for a strengthening storm
The bahamas look like they're going to get it very rough. It's a strong storm, and it's going to slow WAY down, basically lingering over the northern islands. Florida coast might get it bad too, even moreso if they got the speed wrong and dorian travels even 1-2mph faster than expected. Inland should only get tropical storm conditions, but that's what we thought about Irma too.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
― Marcus Aurelius
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).
Jesus, that's quite a jump. Wasn't it sitting at 150 for the last two days?
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).
Jesus, that's quite a jump. Wasn't it sitting at 150 for the last two days?
Yeah, it's a very powerful storm, and this power has largely been understated until now because its power is also very concentrated at the center of the cyclone. Outside of the pretty immediate vicinity of the eye, it actually dissipates quickly.
I say until now, because this is the first time that Dorian is actually impacting land, in the Bahamas. But it's pretty much the worst case scenario for them since it is both a very powerful, and very slow moving storm, and will basically be parked over the islands for the next 24 hours.
Also reports that Dorian has increased speed again slightly to 8 mph, and every pass of the hurricane hunters sees the pressure drop further. It's below 910 mbar now.
It's the most intense hurricane to make landfall in the northern Bahama islands, and has now tied the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane by wind speed.
@Edith_Bagot-Dix When you have internet or satellite connections again, please drop us a line if you can and let us know you're okay.
Anyone got a good source for all details on this storm. I'm trying to find information talking about how big it is in comparison to other storms. Seems like size is a detail that people too easily overlook. A bigger storm is going to have a larger area of impact and it also can make it less likely for an area to be sparred if it changes directions.
As someone pointed out on Twitter, Hurricane Michael was a Cat 5, last year. So was Irma, the year before. I mean, I'm not even counting Maria, because well... it hit Puerto Rico, and we know how he feels about them. But both Michael and Irma hit Florida, where Maralago is, but of course, as Jazz says, this f'n guy.
EDIT: Just to be accurate, Irma was a Cat 5 hurricane during it's lifespan, devastating the Carribean, but it was only Cat 4 when it hit Florida.
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Blackhawk1313Demon Hunter for HireTime RiftRegistered Userregular
Meanwhile Michael was not only Cat 5, but one of four total hurricanes to hit the US as Cat 5 hurricanes on record, and the straight up strongest hurricane to hit where it did. My house sat under the eyewall for four god damn hours while my wife and dogs huddle together with me. Fuck that pile of shit.
* a sourced list of five Trump tweets or statements saying he's never heard of Cat 5, over the last two years*
- Duty2Warn is a Twitter feed that dislikes Trump, but the sources appear to be Daniel Dale (the CNN factchecker guy), and another guy.
One of the various forecasting models has it going over Florida, hitting the Gulf, and immediately literally turning 180 degrees going back the way it came into the Atlantic on the same path.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
Or, as Mrs. Enc called it, the "go home you're drunk, dorian" path
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Zavianuniversal peace sounds better than forever warRegistered Userregular
One of the various forecasting models has it going over Florida, hitting the Gulf, and immediately literally turning 180 degrees going back the way it came into the Atlantic on the same path.
I saw a twitter video of a lady walking down here street in some town and it looks like a literal nuclear bomb went off. Absolute destruction, cars flipped over, horns, sirens, just like the apocalypse.
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Levi Cowan is a meteorology grad student who runs a website with storm modeling tools.
Don't take down your shutters or return supplies just yet, though I doubt anyone on the board is doing that.
I just thought, do you have a laptop with decent battery life for emergency CK2 games?
Steam | XBL
extra laptop battery, also a PSP Go with Resident Evil 2 + 3 for some blackout spoops
The bahamas look like they're going to get it very rough. It's a strong storm, and it's going to slow WAY down, basically lingering over the northern islands. Florida coast might get it bad too, even moreso if they got the speed wrong and dorian travels even 1-2mph faster than expected. Inland should only get tropical storm conditions, but that's what we thought about Irma too.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
Jesus, that's quite a jump. Wasn't it sitting at 150 for the last two days?
Yeah, it's a very powerful storm, and this power has largely been understated until now because its power is also very concentrated at the center of the cyclone. Outside of the pretty immediate vicinity of the eye, it actually dissipates quickly.
I say until now, because this is the first time that Dorian is actually impacting land, in the Bahamas. But it's pretty much the worst case scenario for them since it is both a very powerful, and very slow moving storm, and will basically be parked over the islands for the next 24 hours.
It increased to 7mph movement, winds up to 180 mph
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/011456.shtml
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
Please stay safe.
Yea, fuck, upwards of 30 hours of Freeport stuck in the eyewall?
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Also reports that Dorian has increased speed again slightly to 8 mph, and every pass of the hurricane hunters sees the pressure drop further. It's below 910 mbar now.
It's the most intense hurricane to make landfall in the northern Bahama islands, and has now tied the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane by wind speed.
@Edith_Bagot-Dix When you have internet or satellite connections again, please drop us a line if you can and let us know you're okay.
Just looks dramatically intense from this perspective. Stay safe everyone.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/09/01/politics/donald-trump-category-5-hurricane-dorian/index.html?r=https://www.cnn.com/
This f'n guy.
Steam | XBL
As someone pointed out on Twitter, Hurricane Michael was a Cat 5, last year. So was Irma, the year before. I mean, I'm not even counting Maria, because well... it hit Puerto Rico, and we know how he feels about them. But both Michael and Irma hit Florida, where Maralago is, but of course, as Jazz says, this f'n guy.
EDIT: Just to be accurate, Irma was a Cat 5 hurricane during it's lifespan, devastating the Carribean, but it was only Cat 4 when it hit Florida.
* a sourced list of five Trump tweets or statements saying he's never heard of Cat 5, over the last two years*
- Duty2Warn is a Twitter feed that dislikes Trump, but the sources appear to be Daniel Dale (the CNN factchecker guy), and another guy.
Not copypastable text. So here's a clickable link to the image of the text if Twitter isn't working for you.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDaly8eU0AAXiRo?format=png&name=small
Just a reminder, Trump has 'one of the great memories of all-time'.
Fuck outta here.
except the poor people in the bahamas
Most of those closer tracks will still do immense damage.
even a 1 mph variation in wind speed can shift the course by like, 75 miles
That much rotational mass is a heck of a thing to predict
oh
well
=(
Quick tell everyone in Florida to turn off their routers, if they don’t have an internet connection Dorian can’t continue.
Try shooting at it too, I've heard that scares it away.