I just saw a Harris sticker today and it's the only primary sticker I've seen so far, are polls underestimating the cars I saw while driving to the grocery store demographic?
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AbsalonLands of Always WinterRegistered Userregular
edited September 2019
Going too hard on Biden is dangerous. He is still a bit of the fun uncle with a very challenging past and he can 'aw shucks' his way out of some criticism in the eyes of many voters.
One effective angle would be to call him out on evoking Obama and their administration by pointing at all Republicans have done to and said about Obama and his work despite his reconciliatory ways and compromise, as well as their almost complete loyalty to a man who called Obama an illegitimate foreigner, and then ask why 'Obama's pal and caretaker of Obama's legacy' wants to work with them and be chums with them so unconditionally.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Polling shows the top 5 all bearing Trump but by differing margins. Biden by 15(!), Bernie by 9, Warren and Harris by 7 and Pete by 4. This helps bolster Biden's electability argument.
The question is why. It's a very difficult thing to figure it out I think.
Is Biden too because of his more moderate ideology? That makes Bernie being 9 with Harrid and Warren 7 and Pete 4 make less sense.
Name recognition might be it but how long is that viable as an argument? Experience/age would be related with Biden and Bernie the oldest follower by Warren, then Harris then Pete. And Biden and Bernie are the old straight white men, maybe with Bernie getting partial credit because he's not Christian and/or is Jewish. Its smart to never rule out sexism/misogyny/homophobia.
A strong plurality of D voters are primarily concerned with picking the candidate most likely to beat Trump (and I can't totally blame them) and if these kinds of results keep happening it's hard to argue against that being Biden. We can point to his gaffes and his possible mental slowdown and they can point to it not seeming to matter. We can point to him being less liberal and they can point to him being closer to the median/mean Dem and general election voter anyway.
I personally hope one of the 4 candidates I think are clearly above the rest can make a real move in these next few debates because the window seems smaller and smaller
Name recognition has basically just gotten started. Most people have not been paying attention to the primaries.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
According to Jim Cramer and some other rich asshole talking heads on CNBC, CEOs and other rich oligarch types are scared of Elizabeth Warren becoming president. She might actually make them have to pay taxes and be responsible and stuff. So Warren responded.
Bernie/Warren voters wouldn't necessarily just flip to the other if their favored candidate drops out. A lot of Warren voters think Bernie is too left, too strident. A lot of Bernie voters think that Warren lacks a penis. Both these types would go Biden if their favored candidate drops out.
Bernie/Warren voters wouldn't necessarily just flip to the other if their favored candidate drops out. A lot of Warren voters think Bernie is too left, too strident. A lot of Bernie voters think that Warren lacks a penis. Both these types would go Biden if their favored candidate drops out.
Super cool.
Anyway "what if someone just refuses to drop out" is pretty seriously premature at this point
The nightmare scenario I see here is Biden having like 40% and Warren having like 31 and Bernie like 29
I don’t see Bernie backing down if he’s even in the double digits. Warren shouldn’t as long as she’s the more popular between her and Bernie
So then Biden limps across the finish line with a majority of Dems against him and Warren voters hating Bernie voters and vice versa
This is also the most likely scenario too, imo
You need 2,383 delegates to win the nomination. 40% of the 4,765 Democratic delegates comes to 1,906 delegates. So under this nightmare scenario, Biden would not "limp across the finish line". What's more likely is that Warren and Bernie would hammer out a deal for his delegates.
Bernie/Warren voters wouldn't necessarily just flip to the other if their favored candidate drops out. A lot of Warren voters think Bernie is too left, too strident. A lot of Bernie voters think that Warren lacks a penis. Both these types would go Biden if their favored candidate drops out.
I just said knock this shit about dissing other candidates supporters off. If you can’t manage that don’t be in the thread.
The nightmare scenario I see here is Biden having like 40% and Warren having like 31 and Bernie like 29
I don’t see Bernie backing down if he’s even in the double digits. Warren shouldn’t as long as she’s the more popular between her and Bernie
So then Biden limps across the finish line with a majority of Dems against him and Warren voters hating Bernie voters and vice versa
This is also the most likely scenario too, imo
You need 2,383 delegates to win the nomination. 40% of the 4,765 Democratic delegates comes to 1,906 delegates. So under this nightmare scenario, Biden would not "limp across the finish line". What's more likely is that Warren and Bernie would hammer out a deal for his delegates.
Leading to a situation where the person with clearly the most votes doesn't win the nomination?
I think there would rightfully be huge pressure on the Warren/Sanders (and otherwise affiliated) delegates to support the popular winner in that scenario. And after the first ballot super delegates are allowed to vote basically to either prevent that kind of dealmaking or nominate someone else if there's some kind of late breaking event (health, scandal etc).
The resulting division would also not be good.
edit
Although 40% of votes wouldn't mean 40% of delegates because of 15% thresholds etc but still
I think posting nightmare scenarios before any delegates have been awarded is premature. Like lets have some votes first. I mean Iowa and NH might be all about that Tom Steyer and boy we'd feel silly.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Warren is going to run roughshod over Biden tomorrow night. He's bad at thinking on his feet and she excels at it.
Hopefully some frontrunners finally getting to meet in a debate puts things in a starker contrast.
I feel Harris can go out with a bang taking Biden out as she found the holes in his armor and went for it
At this point she needs to focus more on making an affirmative case for herself than dragging Joe down. She's straddling so many fences right now it's going to take hours to get the splinters out, but even if those are her non-focus-tested, cynically-political positions, she is in dire need of a strong thesis statement.
I believe brainleech's argument - which I agree with, if so - is that Harris is just about done, and the most good she can do at this point is ripping into Biden and taking him out of the race as well.
I think most of the not-top-3 are just about done. Like, anyone in the second-tier group at this point seems to have at best a long-shot chance of jumping into the front-runner tier. I don't think I've seen any polling in Iowa or NH that suggests it's gonna shake things up majorly there. Maybe Nevada or SC? Not sure I've seen anything from there in awhile.
Going too hard on Biden is dangerous. He is still a bit of the fun uncle with a very challenging past and he can 'aw shucks' his way out of some criticism in the eyes of many voters.
One effective angle would be to call him out on evoking Obama and their administration by pointing at all Republicans have done to and said about Obama and his work despite his reconciliatory ways and compromise, as well as their almost complete loyalty to a man who called Obama an illegitimate foreigner, and then ask why 'Obama's pal and caretaker of Obama's legacy' wants to work with them and be chums with them so unconditionally.
Imo his inability to laugh off Harris' attack in the first debate is what really got traction there. Angry Joe doesn't play anywhere near as well
Going too hard on Biden is dangerous. He is still a bit of the fun uncle with a very challenging past and he can 'aw shucks' his way out of some criticism in the eyes of many voters.
One effective angle would be to call him out on evoking Obama and their administration by pointing at all Republicans have done to and said about Obama and his work despite his reconciliatory ways and compromise, as well as their almost complete loyalty to a man who called Obama an illegitimate foreigner, and then ask why 'Obama's pal and caretaker of Obama's legacy' wants to work with them and be chums with them so unconditionally.
Imo his inability to laugh off Harris' attack in the first debate is what really got traction there. Angry Joe doesn't play anywhere near as well
Swalwell hit him and he used his big ole Joe grin and it fell flat.
Going too hard on Biden is dangerous. He is still a bit of the fun uncle with a very challenging past and he can 'aw shucks' his way out of some criticism in the eyes of many voters.
One effective angle would be to call him out on evoking Obama and their administration by pointing at all Republicans have done to and said about Obama and his work despite his reconciliatory ways and compromise, as well as their almost complete loyalty to a man who called Obama an illegitimate foreigner, and then ask why 'Obama's pal and caretaker of Obama's legacy' wants to work with them and be chums with them so unconditionally.
Imo his inability to laugh off Harris' attack in the first debate is what really got traction there. Angry Joe doesn't play anywhere near as well
Swalwell hit him and he used his big ole Joe grin and it fell flat.
Harris hit him and he wasn't smiling anymore
It's why I said Harris pretty has the torpedo to sink Biden but it will cost her as well
His top suit rips away stripper style to reveal an Andrew Lesko "Mad Money" suit and then he starts chucking cash into the crowd while screaming like a maniac
His top suit rips away stripper style to reveal an Andrew Lesko "Mad Money" suit and then he starts chucking cash into the crowd while screaming like a maniac
That was my first thought as well except I couldn't remember Andrew Lesko's name so I just thought, "He's going to wear that weird 'The Government Will Give YOU Money!' guy's off-brand Riddler suit, isn't he?"
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One effective angle would be to call him out on evoking Obama and their administration by pointing at all Republicans have done to and said about Obama and his work despite his reconciliatory ways and compromise, as well as their almost complete loyalty to a man who called Obama an illegitimate foreigner, and then ask why 'Obama's pal and caretaker of Obama's legacy' wants to work with them and be chums with them so unconditionally.
Name recognition has basically just gotten started. Most people have not been paying attention to the primaries.
I don’t see Bernie backing down if he’s even in the double digits. Warren shouldn’t as long as she’s the more popular between her and Bernie
So then Biden limps across the finish line with a majority of Dems against him and Warren voters hating Bernie voters and vice versa
This is also the most likely scenario too, imo
Super cool.
Anyway "what if someone just refuses to drop out" is pretty seriously premature at this point
You need 2,383 delegates to win the nomination. 40% of the 4,765 Democratic delegates comes to 1,906 delegates. So under this nightmare scenario, Biden would not "limp across the finish line". What's more likely is that Warren and Bernie would hammer out a deal for his delegates.
I just said knock this shit about dissing other candidates supporters off. If you can’t manage that don’t be in the thread.
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Leading to a situation where the person with clearly the most votes doesn't win the nomination?
I think there would rightfully be huge pressure on the Warren/Sanders (and otherwise affiliated) delegates to support the popular winner in that scenario. And after the first ballot super delegates are allowed to vote basically to either prevent that kind of dealmaking or nominate someone else if there's some kind of late breaking event (health, scandal etc).
The resulting division would also not be good.
edit
Although 40% of votes wouldn't mean 40% of delegates because of 15% thresholds etc but still
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pleasepaypreacher.net
MSNBC reporter.
Freestyle
Part of me is glad Steyer qualified for one debate so he can be eviscerated on stage.
Part of me wishes the system was set up so Steyer couldn't buy his way into the debates in the first place.
He's going to do it to the background music of Trust a la jack Nickelson's Joker Money Giveaway
I think most of the not-top-3 are just about done. Like, anyone in the second-tier group at this point seems to have at best a long-shot chance of jumping into the front-runner tier. I don't think I've seen any polling in Iowa or NH that suggests it's gonna shake things up majorly there. Maybe Nevada or SC? Not sure I've seen anything from there in awhile.
I'm sure someone was wondering what his penis looked like. I guess this is their chance.
I took a look at NH polls on 538. This is not helpful
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That's a little bit too cropped, I think. I can't tell what I'm looking at.
More or less a theee way tie in NH
He's going to launch a new crypto currency on the debate stage.
Imo his inability to laugh off Harris' attack in the first debate is what really got traction there. Angry Joe doesn't play anywhere near as well
Either
Sanders is up 8 on Biden and 12 on Warren
or
Biden is up 3 on Warren and 11 on Sanders
or
Warren is up 1 on Biden and 2 on Sanders
So either Biden, Warren or Sanders lead in a three way tie or a two horse race or a runaway.
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Swalwell hit him and he used his big ole Joe grin and it fell flat.
Harris hit him and he wasn't smiling anymore
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It's why I said Harris pretty has the torpedo to sink Biden but it will cost her as well
Oh God.
He's going to drag everybody down with whatever ridiculous stunt he comes up, isn't he?
pleasepaypreacher.net
Bring back Williamson and go whole hog.
His top suit rips away stripper style to reveal an Andrew Lesko "Mad Money" suit and then he starts chucking cash into the crowd while screaming like a maniac
That was my first thought as well except I couldn't remember Andrew Lesko's name so I just thought, "He's going to wear that weird 'The Government Will Give YOU Money!' guy's off-brand Riddler suit, isn't he?"
Like, jeans and a polo
Or if he's feeling really brave, sweatpants and an oversized graphic t-shirt that says something like 'who, what, where, wine' and also slippers
Because he is just an average guy, man