Watching the CBC poll tracker is a form of masochism.
Now 60/40 probability of a Liberal win, with chances of a Liberal majority at 11% and a Con majority down to 2%.
Which once again means - who the fuck knows what’s going to happen.
As the person who posted daily poll updates in 2016 and 2018....don't.
Just...don't.
I broke my brain doing that. Like, literally stressed myself out to the point that I still can't always take it anymore.
Don't go down that rabbit hole.
At this point my plan for election day is to vote, go about my day, and hide from the news or any discussions of the news until the following morning. I've been anxious about the whole situation for months and paying attention on election night always makes it worse, so I'm going to inflict my ballot and then just find out the next day what I have or don't have to worry about rather than seeing it play out in slow motion over hours.
In non-election news, Greta Thunberg is going to be at the Edmonton climate march tomorrow.
The guy who organized the truck convoy to Ottawa (and then screwed over everyone else who went there) is organizing a convoy up to Edmonton to counter-protest.
In non-election news, Greta Thunberg is going to be at the Edmonton climate march tomorrow.
The guy who organized the truck convoy to Ottawa (and then screwed over everyone else who went there) is organizing a convoy up to Edmonton to counter-protest.
In non-election news, Greta Thunberg is going to be at the Edmonton climate march tomorrow.
The guy who organized the truck convoy to Ottawa (and then screwed over everyone else who went there) is organizing a convoy up to Edmonton to counter-protest.
So that's fun.
I never heard that part. What happened?
Apparently a bunch gofundme funds, specifically raised to reimburse the participant truckers, went on a little walk
Just a reminder to everyone (myself included). Be sure you're stepping back from this election stuff and finding ways to de-stress for at least a little bit each day.
Watching the CBC poll tracker is a form of masochism.
Now 60/40 probability of a Liberal win, with chances of a Liberal majority at 11% and a Con majority down to 2%.
Which once again means - who the fuck knows what’s going to happen.
As the person who posted daily poll updates in 2016 and 2018....don't.
Just...don't.
I broke my brain doing that. Like, literally stressed myself out to the point that I still can't always take it anymore.
Don't go down that rabbit hole.
Canadian polling is not good enough to bother stressing yourself out about.
Comments like that actually stress me out more. Because it's awfully close to what people said in 2016. "Don't worry about those polls that show Trump has a real chance of winning, polling just doesn't work for an unusual election like this one, it's a 99% chance of victory for Hillary." Turned out the polls were right on the money.
I got a flyer in my mail from the local Conservative rep talking about how the Liberals are going to put a 50% capital gains tax on the sale of your home. I'm sorely tempted to call him and ask him about if he feels lying is appropriate in an election and his willingness to align himself with that kind of platform certainly discourages me from ever considering him as electable.
But then, if it weren't for my fear of a Conservative government, I would be most happy with an NDP win in my riding but I felt I had to vote Liberal to avoid a worst case scenario. If the Liberal rep wins, I might call her and let her know that my vote is by no means a vote of confidence and that they need to do better. I just feet it was more important to avoid the scenario I don't want than to vote the way I really want to.
Watching the CBC poll tracker is a form of masochism.
Now 60/40 probability of a Liberal win, with chances of a Liberal majority at 11% and a Con majority down to 2%.
Which once again means - who the fuck knows what’s going to happen.
As the person who posted daily poll updates in 2016 and 2018....don't.
Just...don't.
I broke my brain doing that. Like, literally stressed myself out to the point that I still can't always take it anymore.
Don't go down that rabbit hole.
Canadian polling is not good enough to bother stressing yourself out about.
Comments like that actually stress me out more. Because it's awfully close to what people said in 2016. "Don't worry about those polls that show Trump has a real chance of winning, polling just doesn't work for an unusual election like this one, it's a 99% chance of victory for Hillary." Turned out the polls were right on the money.
I think every poll outside of a few said Trump was going to lose hard.
I'm in Calgary and I have to make the decision on if I will vote NDP or Liberal in my riding. I dont think it will matter, the incumbent will likely win, leaning more towards NDP but I do see more signage for the liberal guy.
Watching the CBC poll tracker is a form of masochism.
Now 60/40 probability of a Liberal win, with chances of a Liberal majority at 11% and a Con majority down to 2%.
Which once again means - who the fuck knows what’s going to happen.
As the person who posted daily poll updates in 2016 and 2018....don't.
Just...don't.
I broke my brain doing that. Like, literally stressed myself out to the point that I still can't always take it anymore.
Don't go down that rabbit hole.
Canadian polling is not good enough to bother stressing yourself out about.
Comments like that actually stress me out more. Because it's awfully close to what people said in 2016. "Don't worry about those polls that show Trump has a real chance of winning, polling just doesn't work for an unusual election like this one, it's a 99% chance of victory for Hillary." Turned out the polls were right on the money.
Federal polling is easier in the States. Only having two major parties makes it much simpler, as well as being able to get better sample sizes because it's by state and not district. It's easier to get a decent, sufficiently random sample size in Wyoming than it is in Madawaska-Restigouche.
So last night I had a nightmare that Scheer won a majority. An actual, wake-up-in-the-middle-of-the-night-sweating nightmare.
I think this election is getting to me.
It’s our first federal election since Trump got elected, which I think shattered any remaining belief I had that people would largely make the right choice.
I think we also didn’t really get how bad Harper was going to be when he first won, and after that, Conservative electoral victories were ‘well, more of the same’.
So this is a hugely stressful election for a bunch of reasons, but I think a lot of it can be attributed to - we saw what happened down south, we see echoes of the same ideology in our own right wing, and holy shit do I not want to regress as a country.
WATCH THIS SPACE.
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ShadowenSnores in the morningLoserdomRegistered Userregular
Also if Doug fuckin' Ford can win, like, anything, never mind actual high office, there is literally no candidate Canadian Conservatives will not go to the mat for.
Watching the CBC poll tracker is a form of masochism.
Now 60/40 probability of a Liberal win, with chances of a Liberal majority at 11% and a Con majority down to 2%.
Which once again means - who the fuck knows what’s going to happen.
As the person who posted daily poll updates in 2016 and 2018....don't.
Just...don't.
I broke my brain doing that. Like, literally stressed myself out to the point that I still can't always take it anymore.
Don't go down that rabbit hole.
Canadian polling is not good enough to bother stressing yourself out about.
Comments like that actually stress me out more. Because it's awfully close to what people said in 2016. "Don't worry about those polls that show Trump has a real chance of winning, polling just doesn't work for an unusual election like this one, it's a 99% chance of victory for Hillary." Turned out the polls were right on the money.
I think every poll outside of a few said Trump was going to lose hard.
I'm in Calgary and I have to make the decision on if I will vote NDP or Liberal in my riding. I dont think it will matter, the incumbent will likely win, leaning more towards NDP but I do see more signage for the liberal guy.
People focused too much on the national polling in the States, and not on the state level polling. National polls were actually rather accurate to what the popular vote was, but running up the score in the popular vote does nothing. State polls in the states that matter were actually not particularly far off either, there was just a higher number of "undecided" which hung around late, and they tended to break for Trump in the rust belt, which resulted in...well, THIS...by roughly 80,000 votes between three states. So if half those people had decided the other way, well...
What there WAS in the last election was a number of aggregators whose algorithms put a whole lot more emphasis on some polls and as such increased their "confidence" so they were saying there was this huge likelihood, but they hadn't actually run for a single election before, so there was no historical data backing up that confidence. We just glommed onto them trying to make ourselves feel better.
"Elections Canada unveils new ‘voting against’ ballot"
“With the 2019 federal election, Canadians know who they truly despise,” said Chief Electoral Officer Stéphane Perrault. “They are well aware of the possible nightmare outcomes regardless, which, of course, varies among voters. Plus no one votes ‘for’ a party anymore.”
El Skid on
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ArcticLancerBest served chilled.Registered Userregular
Just a reminder to everyone (myself included). Be sure you're stepping back from this election stuff and finding ways to de-stress for at least a little bit each day.
Funny enough, I think I'm less stressed than I have been for a while. For a few months leading up to the actual election I was feeling incredibly doom and gloom about our political future and the state of and future of the world at large. The closer we've come to election day, I've seen a lot of progress from the party I have long believed in, a wider acceptance of their philosophies, a surge for greens throughout the country, and a general pushback against the LPC and CPC both. It feels like as a nation we're still collectively pushing further left, and trying to be progressive, and yes, sadly, there are a huge number of uninformed and entrenched and whatever other bad, but we're seeing more people both being smart and caring. Shit feels winnable for me for the first time in a long time, and a minority government outcome is what I've been hoping for (and not at all expecting) for the last 18 months at least. <_<
Just a reminder to everyone (myself included). Be sure you're stepping back from this election stuff and finding ways to de-stress for at least a little bit each day.
Funny enough, I think I'm less stressed than I have been for a while. For a few months leading up to the actual election I was feeling incredibly doom and gloom about our political future and the state of and future of the world at large. The closer we've come to election day, I've seen a lot of progress from the party I have long believed in, a wider acceptance of their philosophies, a surge for greens throughout the country, and a general pushback against the LPC and CPC both. It feels like as a nation we're still collectively pushing further left, and trying to be progressive, and yes, sadly, there are a huge number of uninformed and entrenched and whatever other bad, but we're seeing more people both being smart and caring. Shit feels winnable for me for the first time in a long time, and a minority government outcome is what I've been hoping for (and not at all expecting) for the last 18 months at least. <_<
Just a reminder to everyone (myself included). Be sure you're stepping back from this election stuff and finding ways to de-stress for at least a little bit each day.
Funny enough, I think I'm less stressed than I have been for a while. For a few months leading up to the actual election I was feeling incredibly doom and gloom about our political future and the state of and future of the world at large. The closer we've come to election day, I've seen a lot of progress from the party I have long believed in, a wider acceptance of their philosophies, a surge for greens throughout the country, and a general pushback against the LPC and CPC both. It feels like as a nation we're still collectively pushing further left, and trying to be progressive, and yes, sadly, there are a huge number of uninformed and entrenched and whatever other bad, but we're seeing more people both being smart and caring. Shit feels winnable for me for the first time in a long time, and a minority government outcome is what I've been hoping for (and not at all expecting) for the last 18 months at least. <_<
Guessing your not in Alberta
You got me. ;P
I do have family in Alberta. I've ... more or less recently disowned my uncle because I'm tired of his CPC shit.
So do any of you try to volunteer for a candidate in your riding?
Yesterday, I finally got a call to help out, like weeks after I asked to help out.
"Oh hey, NDP called, they said go take a sign over to our neighbour down the street" my wife says as we are packing it in for the night.
So I grab my extra sign (didn't want to take too many, didn't want to be wasteful) and head on over the next morning once the kid is on the bus to school and I have had a small bite to eat.
"Huh, I asked for this sign weeks ago..." The neighbour chuckles and sticks it in the ground out front their place.
Is volunteering organizing this slow where you guys are at or might this just be a remote, large area riding issue?
From what I remember from Obama 08 organizers, lawn signs while physically visible, are not influencing to undecided or sporadic voters, and so are at the bottom of a campaign priorities.
Phone banking and door knocking take priority
MWO: Adamski
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HardtargetThere Are Four LightsVancouverRegistered Userregular
just a reminder guys that polling doesn't work and is awful
go take a walk, have a coffee, enjoy some air, whatever. just decompress, especially if you've already voted.
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Nova_CI have the needThe need for speedRegistered Userregular
I wasn't going to vote (I'm unhappy with the entire thing right now, I've very nihilistic about our future and I'm tired of how many people just tell me "not true" when I try to talk about real things) but then my boss said he'd work with me to set aside a block of time on Monday so I could vote and I suddenly felt like it was a responsibility and not a privilege. I mean, it's both, but regardless of how hopeless I feel, I better do it anyway.
I had NDP folks come by my door and there was like a cheerleading session thing on the streetcorner this morning with signs saying #SinghSurge but I didn't hear a single honk so...
Greens have zero signs up and seem to be light on the talk radio advertising and liberal guy is basically non-existant sign wise and ad wise.
My prediction is this riding goes green instead of NDP like it always has.
I wasn't going to vote (I'm unhappy with the entire thing right now, I've very nihilistic about our future and I'm tired of how many people just tell me "not true" when I try to talk about real things) but then my boss said he'd work with me to set aside a block of time on Monday so I could vote and I suddenly felt like it was a responsibility and not a privilege. I mean, it's both, but regardless of how hopeless I feel, I better do it anyway.
That is actually a legal responsibility that employers have. You need to have a 4 hour block (maybe its only 3?) during voting hours where you are available to vote. If your work hours don't provide for that window, your employer must provide for that time at no loss of pay.
I myself took advantage of this during the last Ontario election.
I wasn't going to vote (I'm unhappy with the entire thing right now, I've very nihilistic about our future and I'm tired of how many people just tell me "not true" when I try to talk about real things) but then my boss said he'd work with me to set aside a block of time on Monday so I could vote and I suddenly felt like it was a responsibility and not a privilege. I mean, it's both, but regardless of how hopeless I feel, I better do it anyway.
That is actually a legal responsibility that employers have. You need to have a 4 hour block (maybe its only 3?) during voting hours where you are available to vote. If your work hours don't provide for that window, your employer must provide for that time at no loss of pay.
I myself took advantage of this during the last Ontario election.
it's 3
By law, everyone who is eligible to vote must have three consecutive hours to cast their vote on election day. If your hours of work do not allow for three consecutive hours to vote, your employer must give you time off
I wasn't going to vote (I'm unhappy with the entire thing right now, I've very nihilistic about our future and I'm tired of how many people just tell me "not true" when I try to talk about real things) but then my boss said he'd work with me to set aside a block of time on Monday so I could vote and I suddenly felt like it was a responsibility and not a privilege. I mean, it's both, but regardless of how hopeless I feel, I better do it anyway.
That is actually a legal responsibility that employers have. You need to have a 4 hour block (maybe its only 3?) during voting hours where you are available to vote. If your work hours don't provide for that window, your employer must provide for that time at no loss of pay.
I myself took advantage of this during the last Ontario election.
Right, but we're very short handed so he was trying to manage when people would be away. It just reminded me that there's a responsibility portion to this.
I wasn't going to vote (I'm unhappy with the entire thing right now, I've very nihilistic about our future and I'm tired of how many people just tell me "not true" when I try to talk about real things) but then my boss said he'd work with me to set aside a block of time on Monday so I could vote and I suddenly felt like it was a responsibility and not a privilege. I mean, it's both, but regardless of how hopeless I feel, I better do it anyway.
Thank you for voting.
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HardtargetThere Are Four LightsVancouverRegistered Userregular
edited October 2019
Hey just your friendly reminder, don't vote for the green party since they're basically just conservatives but ones who care about the environment for some reason:
A lot of support for the federal Greens definitely feels like it's more based on people's projection of what they think/want the party to be, rather than what they actually are.
Scheer is in my city at one of my favorite bars doing a live stream right now telling outright lies that the Liberals are going to raise the gst and impose massive taxes on people buying and selling homes. Like this stuff is all a complete fabrication.
Scheer is in my city at one of my favorite bars doing a live stream right now telling outright lies that the Liberals are going to raise the gst and impose massive taxes on people buying and selling homes. Like this stuff is all a complete fabrication.
The CPC's entire strategy at this point is lying about the LPC as much and as fast as they can, while Scheer publicly calls Trudeau a liar on national television.
It works because Trudeau refuses to talk about his accomplishments or to defend himself, leaving the CPC's side standing unchallenged in the public consciousness.
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ArcticLancerBest served chilled.Registered Userregular
Scheer is in my city at one of my favorite bars doing a live stream right now telling outright lies that the Liberals are going to raise the gst and impose massive taxes on people buying and selling homes. Like this stuff is all a complete fabrication.
Is there a link for this? Like, a recording? I feel like that's the sort of thing that's very worth sharing instead of just complaining about here?
Posts
go make a new dragon age for me instead
As the person who posted daily poll updates in 2016 and 2018....don't.
Just...don't.
I broke my brain doing that. Like, literally stressed myself out to the point that I still can't always take it anymore.
Don't go down that rabbit hole.
The obscure, baffling, difficult-to-predict-and-control-over-a-playthrough mechanic will again be an election. Thanks for that.
Canadian polling is not good enough to bother stressing yourself out about.
At this point my plan for election day is to vote, go about my day, and hide from the news or any discussions of the news until the following morning. I've been anxious about the whole situation for months and paying attention on election night always makes it worse, so I'm going to inflict my ballot and then just find out the next day what I have or don't have to worry about rather than seeing it play out in slow motion over hours.
I have 549 Rock Band Drum and 305 Pro Drum FC's
REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS
The guy who organized the truck convoy to Ottawa (and then screwed over everyone else who went there) is organizing a convoy up to Edmonton to counter-protest.
So that's fun.
I never heard that part. What happened?
I think this election is getting to me.
Apparently a bunch gofundme funds, specifically raised to reimburse the participant truckers, went on a little walk
Comments like that actually stress me out more. Because it's awfully close to what people said in 2016. "Don't worry about those polls that show Trump has a real chance of winning, polling just doesn't work for an unusual election like this one, it's a 99% chance of victory for Hillary." Turned out the polls were right on the money.
But then, if it weren't for my fear of a Conservative government, I would be most happy with an NDP win in my riding but I felt I had to vote Liberal to avoid a worst case scenario. If the Liberal rep wins, I might call her and let her know that my vote is by no means a vote of confidence and that they need to do better. I just feet it was more important to avoid the scenario I don't want than to vote the way I really want to.
SteamID: edgruberman GOG Galaxy: EdGruberman
I think every poll outside of a few said Trump was going to lose hard.
I'm in Calgary and I have to make the decision on if I will vote NDP or Liberal in my riding. I dont think it will matter, the incumbent will likely win, leaning more towards NDP but I do see more signage for the liberal guy.
Federal polling is easier in the States. Only having two major parties makes it much simpler, as well as being able to get better sample sizes because it's by state and not district. It's easier to get a decent, sufficiently random sample size in Wyoming than it is in Madawaska-Restigouche.
It’s our first federal election since Trump got elected, which I think shattered any remaining belief I had that people would largely make the right choice.
I think we also didn’t really get how bad Harper was going to be when he first won, and after that, Conservative electoral victories were ‘well, more of the same’.
So this is a hugely stressful election for a bunch of reasons, but I think a lot of it can be attributed to - we saw what happened down south, we see echoes of the same ideology in our own right wing, and holy shit do I not want to regress as a country.
People focused too much on the national polling in the States, and not on the state level polling. National polls were actually rather accurate to what the popular vote was, but running up the score in the popular vote does nothing. State polls in the states that matter were actually not particularly far off either, there was just a higher number of "undecided" which hung around late, and they tended to break for Trump in the rust belt, which resulted in...well, THIS...by roughly 80,000 votes between three states. So if half those people had decided the other way, well...
What there WAS in the last election was a number of aggregators whose algorithms put a whole lot more emphasis on some polls and as such increased their "confidence" so they were saying there was this huge likelihood, but they hadn't actually run for a single election before, so there was no historical data backing up that confidence. We just glommed onto them trying to make ourselves feel better.
"Elections Canada unveils new ‘voting against’ ballot"
Perhaps I can interest you in my meager selection of pins?
Guessing your not in Alberta
So, well, yay. I'm still going to vote on Monday, be part of running up that score, and have encouraged friends and family to vote as well.
I do have family in Alberta. I've ... more or less recently disowned my uncle because I'm tired of his CPC shit.
Perhaps I can interest you in my meager selection of pins?
Yesterday, I finally got a call to help out, like weeks after I asked to help out.
"Oh hey, NDP called, they said go take a sign over to our neighbour down the street" my wife says as we are packing it in for the night.
So I grab my extra sign (didn't want to take too many, didn't want to be wasteful) and head on over the next morning once the kid is on the bus to school and I have had a small bite to eat.
"Huh, I asked for this sign weeks ago..." The neighbour chuckles and sticks it in the ground out front their place.
Is volunteering organizing this slow where you guys are at or might this just be a remote, large area riding issue?
Phone banking and door knocking take priority
MWO: Adamski
go take a walk, have a coffee, enjoy some air, whatever. just decompress, especially if you've already voted.
Greens have zero signs up and seem to be light on the talk radio advertising and liberal guy is basically non-existant sign wise and ad wise.
My prediction is this riding goes green instead of NDP like it always has.
I'm in the same situation, Kitchener Centre is basically a lock for the Liberal candidate at this point
That is actually a legal responsibility that employers have. You need to have a 4 hour block (maybe its only 3?) during voting hours where you are available to vote. If your work hours don't provide for that window, your employer must provide for that time at no loss of pay.
I myself took advantage of this during the last Ontario election.
it's 3
By law, everyone who is eligible to vote must have three consecutive hours to cast their vote on election day. If your hours of work do not allow for three consecutive hours to vote, your employer must give you time off
https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=faq&document=faqtimo&lang=e
Right, but we're very short handed so he was trying to manage when people would be away. It just reminded me that there's a responsibility portion to this.
Thank you for voting.
Maybe one day if they get a good leader?
16-20 big rig truckers honking their horns outside.
Good time to remember that history has a right and a wrong side.
The CPC's entire strategy at this point is lying about the LPC as much and as fast as they can, while Scheer publicly calls Trudeau a liar on national television.
It works because Trudeau refuses to talk about his accomplishments or to defend himself, leaving the CPC's side standing unchallenged in the public consciousness.
Perhaps I can interest you in my meager selection of pins?