Yeah I'm not a fan of whenever Silver plays pundit, but looking at that tweet just makes me kinda impressed that he predicted Klobuchar still being relevant eight months later.
Hard pressed to say she's ever been relevant this cycle
She only ever seems to come up with a list of "who is still inexplicably running?" Like Delaney.
I would agree but the difference is that Delaney isn't among the last six candidates still qualifying for debates. That's all I meant by still being relevant.
I'd say that 8 years ago Klobuchar was on my list of those who would run and do well 'the next time'. Right up with Gillibrand.
America basically seems to have a problem with women politicians.
I mean the candidate with probably the best overall run campaign who is still a major player for the nomination is a woman, but you are 100 percent right anyway.
Warren and the newer generation of women in government give me some hope though because it seems like we're closer to an era where women can be themselves and still have higher ambitions.
Career politicians of Warren's age would have ended their careers long ago if they had shown the same type of vulnerability that she had out on the campaign trail this past weekend (her only being in politics as of late spared her this).
Women in both parties had to imitate men to be taken seriously (and as Trump shows, voters will often take the undiluted product over imitations) and I hope thats come to an end.
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Harris dropped before Gabbard, Steyer, Bloomberg, and Yang
I would not say this primary is acting to efficient choose the best candidates
In fact it seems as though the race started too early, and several candidates might have benefitted from coming in late
I suspect a deeper issue is Biden and his support.
Biden's support won't budge. And no one can really figure it out. And it just keeps not moving. This basically kills the momentum of basically all the other candidates trying to run in anywhere close to his lane or via some path that requires the demos he has locked in tight just to get off the ground. Which results in the 2nd tier mainstream candidates all falling to the wayside.
And so you are left with Biden, the two candidates running in a distinctly different lane out on the left (Warren/Sanders) and all the cranks who's continued existence in this race was never connected to reality and so will only stop when they run out of money or get bored and wander off. And Buttigieg of course as the spare Biden rich donors are keeping on ice in case the 1st edition model falters.
Worth noting, the democratic primary in Iowa isn't till February 3rd. Biden's number stubbornly staying where they are isn't that much of mystery, when one gets out of the bubble that is political junkie and realizes that a shit ton of a people just aren't paying attention. A good chunk of both Biden's and Sander's numbers are likely a result of being known commodities and when the dipshit media insists someone, who doesn't follow politics like a hobby, has to pick one of the candidates, that individual is going to pick someone they know. Biden probably has a far larger share of voters like this than Sanders because people remember Biden as Obama's VP and Obama was popular. Biden also doesn't get viewed as the guy that last to Hillary, which is probably something that works against Sanders with some.
Those individuals aren't going to paying attention or change their minds until 2-3 weeks out from whatever primary they vote in. If you're in Iowa, that's still two god damn months out from now. For everyone not registered in Iowa, that's even longer. People need to stop acting like a ton of potential voters in the primary are set on who they will vote for them, ton of them aren't and won't be until we get much closer to the date they'll be voting. They do not follow politics closely and only tune in when it's close to time for them to vote.
Polls actually suggest that Biden's support is disproportionately high among those paying a lot of attention.
Which doesn't bode well for people who are not Biden.
I think the best hope for Not Biden right now is that among the glut of candidates who just dropped out or are about to, they migrate disproportionately to Warren, Sanders, or Buttigieg.
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A smaller debate field hopefully gives Biden more chances to say dumb things.
Between Trump and Biden, I'm honestly unsure to the extent that 'saying dumb things' actually impacts candidates. Or at least, it depends on the type of dumb.
Things don't really become gaffes anymore. They become memes.
Breaking News: Senator Kamala Harris is dropping out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination after months of slumping poll numbers, a dramatic comedown after a promising start
NYT is a newspaper sometimes.
Harris has dropped out.
I think she would have been one of the stronger general election candidates and better potential Presidents in the field. Along with most of the field she went too hard trying to appeal to Bernie leftists who were never going to vote for her instead of committing to going for Biden's base and the Obama core liberals. She endorsed and campaigned for Obama in early 07, was on the forefront of marriage equality and has the obvious racial pluses in the primary to go after those two groups of voters. I think trying to play both sides lost her credibility with both sides.
I also think she had the best shot of breaking Biden's hold of black voters. I am having a hard time seeing who takes them now.
I would assume this is good for Warren. Harris and Warren were my top 2, my wife's top 2, my mother's top 2, my sister's two 2....
I think the evidence suggests this was not true and I really think that maybe that's what hurt her the most.
That's the result but I also think it's related. I think if you come out backing leftist/radical programs like she did early you lose credibility with some communities. Biden has been the safe choice and she undercut her argument in that way IMO. Booker had the same issue IMO.
If they had run as liberals instead of progressives I think they would have come across as more authentic and would have had more appeal. It is impossible to know though so I could be wrong.
Did she do that though? What specifically from her plans and policies do you see as her backing leftist/radical programs? Did she come out with statements in support of leftist goals?
Polls actually suggest that Biden's support is disproportionately high among those paying a lot of attention.
Which doesn't bode well for people who are not Biden.
I think the best hope for Not Biden right now is that among the glut of candidates who just dropped out or are about to, they migrate disproportionately to Warren, Sanders, or Buttigieg.
And the polls don't really back that up, if second choice data is to be trusted. I think more Harris voters will head to Warren than Biden but even at like 3 to 1 (which is optimistic) it's not nearly enough.
If there are 4 main candidates plus a handful of cranks (Tulsi, arguably Yang) and Biden has say 28% +/- 3 there isn't much of a way for him to lose. I'm having a hard time figuring out a path for him to lose without something truly big changing. I can't see Sanders dropping before like May. I can't see Warren, Sanders or Pete winning over black voters. And I can't see a dark horse really making enough headway. Barring Booker or someone suddenly surging I don't really see how it could happen
Sanders is still a long shot. Id say with zero scientific rigour his odds are maybe 15%? But Warren losing ground to Pete is a very good thing for him. His most likely path is to hold steady, win some early primaries, and off of that convince people who are just backing whoever they think can win in the general, who likely lean Biden right now.
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knitdanIn ur baseKillin ur guysRegistered Userregular
Harris dropped before Gabbard, Steyer, Bloomberg, and Yang
I would not say this primary is acting to efficient choose the best candidates
In fact it seems as though the race started too early, and several candidates might have benefitted from coming in late
I am deeply frustrated today, not the least of which because everybody is pointing to that NYT story and neglecting to mention it’s a plant by the Bloomberg campaign which somehow is polling at 5% despite joining a week ago.
Not to mention that treacherous staffer jumping ship to Bloomberg.
I’m in a deep blue state. Maybe it’s my turn to sit this one out.
“I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
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I legitimately can't tell how much "warren losing ground to pete" is a real thing that is happening or the media desperate to make it interesting since the polling hasn't changed much in a couple weeks.
I legitimately can't tell how much "warren losing ground to pete" is a real thing that is happening or the media desperate to make it interesting since the polling hasn't changed much in a couple weeks.
Being a colossal dumbass is already baked into Biden's numbers
While I don't relish a double standard being held against Trump's opponent, Biden being seemingly impervious to gaffes is like his only attractive feature
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
Being a colossal dumbass is already baked into Biden's numbers
I'd argue that it's baked into Diamond Joe's numbers.
which I'm willing to bet is all that a good portion of folks are going off of. He's Obama's VP and has that charming, older folksy friendly thing going for him.
I dunno, I don't have a personal vitriolic hatred for Biden, but I wish he'd not have run.
I think there are only a few possible inflection points left in this race. One is right now, with Harris leaving. Not so much because of her 4% support shifting, but because of the 95 endorsements she had. If those shift to a particular candidate en masse, that might refocus some eyeballs on the recipient.
One is the next debate, though really, I'm skeptical anything will happen there.
One is the Iowa primary, where the narrative could really start to shift.
And one is Super Tuesday.
Unless one of the big four, like, dies, or is caught with Nazi child porn, or something, I don't see much changing outside of a few discrete events.
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Biden's got that "oh, grandpa *laugh track*" vibe so whenever he gaffes it's seen as endearing rather than concerning. So the more others try to use his gaffes as reasons why to not vote for him, the more people see that as reasons why to vote for him, similar to the path Trump followed to his nomination.
Democrats should use this to support the dismantling of ICE, considering they gave them billions of dollars to prevent this exact thing from happening.
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
but it should absolutely be brought up at the debate.
Pete wants a seat with the adults, the he has to answer the adult questions. "What did you do for Satan" is a good start.
Democrats should use this to support the dismantling of ICE, considering they gave them billions of dollars to prevent this exact thing from happening.
The ones who dont already arent going to start now.
but it should absolutely be brought up at the debate.
Pete wants a seat with the adults, the he has to answer the adult questions. "What did you do for Satan" is a good start.
The thing about McKinsey is it is a high "anglican" neoliberal op that has employed many Dems (Chelsea Clinton) and many will see it as biting the hand that feeds. Bernie might give it a shot but his best moves tend to be policy, policy, policy.
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but it should absolutely be brought up at the debate.
Pete wants a seat with the adults, the he has to answer the adult questions. "What did you do for Satan" is a good start.
McKinsey is one of the most prominent consulting firms out there and he is under a confidentiality agreement with them which is not surprising, so he legally cannot talk about his work there.
I also don't see how you logically draw a line from their recent work for the Trump Administration to Buttigieg who only worked there from 2007 to 2010.
but it should absolutely be brought up at the debate.
Pete wants a seat with the adults, the he has to answer the adult questions. "What did you do for Satan" is a good start.
McKinsey is one of the most prominent consulting firms out there and he is under a confidentiality agreement with them which is not surprising, so he legally cannot talk about his work there.
I also don't see how you logically draw a line from their recent work for the Trump Administration to Buttigieg who only worked there from 2007 to 2010.
but it should absolutely be brought up at the debate.
Pete wants a seat with the adults, the he has to answer the adult questions. "What did you do for Satan" is a good start.
McKinsey is one of the most prominent consulting firms out there and he is under a confidentiality agreement with them which is not surprising, so he legally cannot talk about his work there.
I also don't see how you logically draw a line from their recent work for the Trump Administration to Buttigieg who only worked there from 2007 to 2010.
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America basically seems to have a problem with women politicians.
I would agree but the difference is that Delaney isn't among the last six candidates still qualifying for debates. That's all I meant by still being relevant.
I mean the candidate with probably the best overall run campaign who is still a major player for the nomination is a woman, but you are 100 percent right anyway.
Warren and the newer generation of women in government give me some hope though because it seems like we're closer to an era where women can be themselves and still have higher ambitions.
Career politicians of Warren's age would have ended their careers long ago if they had shown the same type of vulnerability that she had out on the campaign trail this past weekend (her only being in politics as of late spared her this).
Women in both parties had to imitate men to be taken seriously (and as Trump shows, voters will often take the undiluted product over imitations) and I hope thats come to an end.
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Worth noting, the democratic primary in Iowa isn't till February 3rd. Biden's number stubbornly staying where they are isn't that much of mystery, when one gets out of the bubble that is political junkie and realizes that a shit ton of a people just aren't paying attention. A good chunk of both Biden's and Sander's numbers are likely a result of being known commodities and when the dipshit media insists someone, who doesn't follow politics like a hobby, has to pick one of the candidates, that individual is going to pick someone they know. Biden probably has a far larger share of voters like this than Sanders because people remember Biden as Obama's VP and Obama was popular. Biden also doesn't get viewed as the guy that last to Hillary, which is probably something that works against Sanders with some.
Those individuals aren't going to paying attention or change their minds until 2-3 weeks out from whatever primary they vote in. If you're in Iowa, that's still two god damn months out from now. For everyone not registered in Iowa, that's even longer. People need to stop acting like a ton of potential voters in the primary are set on who they will vote for them, ton of them aren't and won't be until we get much closer to the date they'll be voting. They do not follow politics closely and only tune in when it's close to time for them to vote.
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Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Which doesn't bode well for people who are not Biden.
I think the best hope for Not Biden right now is that among the glut of candidates who just dropped out or are about to, they migrate disproportionately to Warren, Sanders, or Buttigieg.
Between Trump and Biden, I'm honestly unsure to the extent that 'saying dumb things' actually impacts candidates. Or at least, it depends on the type of dumb.
Things don't really become gaffes anymore. They become memes.
Did she do that though? What specifically from her plans and policies do you see as her backing leftist/radical programs? Did she come out with statements in support of leftist goals?
And the polls don't really back that up, if second choice data is to be trusted. I think more Harris voters will head to Warren than Biden but even at like 3 to 1 (which is optimistic) it's not nearly enough.
If there are 4 main candidates plus a handful of cranks (Tulsi, arguably Yang) and Biden has say 28% +/- 3 there isn't much of a way for him to lose. I'm having a hard time figuring out a path for him to lose without something truly big changing. I can't see Sanders dropping before like May. I can't see Warren, Sanders or Pete winning over black voters. And I can't see a dark horse really making enough headway. Barring Booker or someone suddenly surging I don't really see how it could happen
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I am deeply frustrated today, not the least of which because everybody is pointing to that NYT story and neglecting to mention it’s a plant by the Bloomberg campaign which somehow is polling at 5% despite joining a week ago.
Not to mention that treacherous staffer jumping ship to Bloomberg.
I’m in a deep blue state. Maybe it’s my turn to sit this one out.
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Its a thing, though who knows if it lasts
While I don't relish a double standard being held against Trump's opponent, Biden being seemingly impervious to gaffes is like his only attractive feature
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I'd argue that it's baked into Diamond Joe's numbers.
which I'm willing to bet is all that a good portion of folks are going off of. He's Obama's VP and has that charming, older folksy friendly thing going for him.
I dunno, I don't have a personal vitriolic hatred for Biden, but I wish he'd not have run.
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One is the next debate, though really, I'm skeptical anything will happen there.
One is the Iowa primary, where the narrative could really start to shift.
And one is Super Tuesday.
Unless one of the big four, like, dies, or is caught with Nazi child porn, or something, I don't see much changing outside of a few discrete events.
Is she throwing shade? I'm honestly not sure.
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you may remember mckinsey as the consulting firm mayor pete doesn't talk about what he did for
Fuckin’ gross
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Will it?
Let's find out!
(Spoiler: no.)
Pete wants a seat with the adults, the he has to answer the adult questions. "What did you do for Satan" is a good start.
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The ones who dont already arent going to start now.
The thing about McKinsey is it is a high "anglican" neoliberal op that has employed many Dems (Chelsea Clinton) and many will see it as biting the hand that feeds. Bernie might give it a shot but his best moves tend to be policy, policy, policy.
― Marcus Aurelius
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McKinsey is one of the most prominent consulting firms out there and he is under a confidentiality agreement with them which is not surprising, so he legally cannot talk about his work there.
I also don't see how you logically draw a line from their recent work for the Trump Administration to Buttigieg who only worked there from 2007 to 2010.
So the criticism shouldn't start with something they did nine years after he left.