As far as I know they'll still be publishing the unemployment numbers, just not the economic and deficit projections that every other administration has done.
The unemployment numbers will come out same as always. They are not putting out their usual forecast. White House forecasts are always ridiculously rosy anyway, so it shouldn't matter to anything practical.
I was just pointing out that while income for boomers came closest of all generations to recovering, that employment didn’t recover has been cited as a cause for further boomer brain worms and them taking comfort in the fascists’ propaganda giving them an excuse of “the other” that’s keeping them from getting jobs
I think what the full graph may represent is rich boomers taking a larger slice of the economic pie by replacing higher paid peers with lower paid youngins
I mean, the same thing happened in Nazi Germany. It wasn't the workers who suffered the worst effects of the post-WWI economy and Depression that supported the facists. They were predominantly either mainstream voters or Communists.
It was the small business owners, bankers, and other middle class folks who were doing relatively well financially who flocked to the Nazis. That because the dynamic with fascism isn't "Everyone who became poor becomes fascists."
It's that people lose faith in the systems, the assholes band together because they think "Only we can solve this!", and no one tries that hard to stop them because they are disillusioned. Eventually, it turns out the assholes' solution is "Murder everyone who disagrees with us", and it's downhill from there.
Repeat and rinse, and that's the story of the rise of fascism wherever it happens. The Powers That Be fuck up, the nation's asshole bosses and generals get together to fix things, and it all goes to hell.
This all starts with a simmering racial resentment that makes for an "other" to pin all the problems on. Eventually, solving those problems gets connecting with getting rid of those "others", which logically then leads to "let's open up some death camps".
Fascism is rooted in racism and loathing of the other, for whatever definition of other is convenient at the time.
To tie this back to the economy, racism means it's easy to blame globalism (the other), globalists (AKA the Jewish, always a convenient other), and immigrants (ditto) for why it's so hard to get ahead in today's economy, instead of the home-grown assholes who have systematically stacked the deck legislatively to favor concentration of wealth over the last 50 years. Capital attracts capital, and absent a moderating force like the government, we have shown it will cheerfully lead us back to a feudal society...but with Twitter.
And as the "First they came for..." poem shows, the racism is just the opening salvo. Left without opposition, fascists will target an endless list of internal enemies and each other as they devour the nation seeking others to blame for their failures.
...no? The first three salvos of the poem are, in order: Communists, Socialists, Trade Unions. After that it's Jews.
The unemployment numbers will come out same as always. They are not putting out their usual forecast. White House forecasts are always ridiculously rosy anyway, so it shouldn't matter to anything practical.
And it's not like Goldman Sachs, ADP, and various others aren't going to release their own projections anyway. You can't just will mass ignorance into being. Especially when it comes to making money.
Can't read the article but I presume it's just the white house cea numbers. BLS, BEA, Fed, etc. will still be putting out their numbers as usual. We'll probably see around 20% in U3 depending on how much the reopening has worked and probably like 27% in U6.
So we're at about 43 million unemployment claims. The unemployment claims alone is around 26% unemployment, with structural on top you're looking at almost 30%. Depends of course on how many people are back in work what with the "reopening". I'd expect U3 tomorrow to be around 21% with U6 probably around 26% or higher.
Are there any numbers out there that kind of separate service job losses from white collar office worker job losses? I'm curious how much of unemployment is just the service industy.
Are there any numbers out there that kind of separate service job losses from white collar office worker job losses? I'm curious how much of unemployment is just the service industy.
life's a game that you're bound to lose / like using a hammer to pound in screws
fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
Who ever is doing DoL's visualizations need help. That I agree with.
90% confidence interval... on which category the data belongs to :rotate:
life's a game that you're bound to lose / like using a hammer to pound in screws
fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
Who ever is doing DoL's visualizations need help. That I agree with.
It seems like the sort of thing that would work fine when you don't have to cover a split of +10 to -22,500
These are not normal times. Hell how many people remarked on thinking the last unemployment report had a border on the right hand side before realizing it was the latest figure?
Are there historical examples that show that reducing VAT works as a stimulus measurment? Asking because the German governmet coalition agreed on a Corona stimulus package and reducing VAT for half a year is the most expensive part of it.
Are there historical examples that show that reducing VAT works as a stimulus measurment? Asking because the German governmet coalition agreed on a Corona stimulus package and reducing VAT for half a year is the most expensive part of it.
It makes everything cheaper, which I guess is sorta-vaguely like putting cash in people's pockets, but that still depends on people having cash and going out and spending it. If you're broke, then a cut in VAT does you no good. Even from a raw math standpoint I don't think it's going to bump GDP as much as some form of straight up government spending would.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
The federal unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent in May, down from 14.7 percent in April, the Department of Labor said Friday, a sign that economy is improving quicker than economists had projected.
2.5 million people gained jobs in May, as states and counties began to reopen around the country.
There are hopes that these figures signal the country is moving away from the nadir of the crisis. Yet the 30 million workers who are still collecting unemployment benefits is a sign of how significantly the labor market has been upended.
Economists agree that getting back to normal will take longer and be more challenging than recessions of the past.
The other thing that stood out to me in the article though was:
Nearly half of commercial rents went unpaid in May. Oil and gas drillers Whiting Petroleum and Diamond Offshore have filed for bankruptcy protection, as have brands like J. Crew and J.C. Penney. American Airlines said travel was down 80 percent in May. And concerns are bubbling about another wave of layoffs, as state and municipal governments are forced to drastically pare down their budgets.
In the last three months, industries such as leisure and hospitality have lost nearly half their workers, or about 8 million jobs; education and health services have lost 2.6 million jobs; and goods-producing sectors have dropped by around 2.4 million, according to analysts at Moody’s Investor Services.
It would also be informative to see a view that's normalized against the number of people in that industry.
Nah, the issue is the dot size compared to the scale and error bars. In many cases the dot is larger than the bars, which means it's unreadable and hard to tell where the actual point is. Things like data callouts/whiskers on values are a better fit here.
A massive shift when the levels are so low is expected, and the massive shift upward still means it is bad because the hole is so dang deep and doesn't indicate whether it will get back to ok levels soon.
A massive shift when the levels are so low is expected, and the massive shift upward still means it is bad because the hole is so dang deep and doesn't indicate whether it will get back to ok levels soon.
A massive shift when the levels are so low is expected, and the massive shift upward still means it is bad because the hole is so dang deep and doesn't indicate whether it will get back to ok levels soon.
So what would actually be “good” to see??
To not have a pandemic raging in a country that doesn't want to reckon with the reality that the only economically viable method to weather the storm is to provide for all of the people living in it regardless of circumstance.
According to the press release temporary layoffs decreased by 2.7 million (furloughed workers coming back) but permanent job losses increased by roughly 300,000. Because so much of the unemployment was made up of temp unemployment it's not too surprising that the numbers would decrease, but the increase in permanent job losses is not a good sign.
If we get the same improvements in the next two months, unemployment will still be worse than at the peak of the great recession when the previous phases expire.
Treating this as meaning the crisis is over is nonsense
The other thing I am thinking of is participation rate. There is a chunk of folks who are getting unemployment without requirements to look due to be furloughed and such. And I am not sure they are actively being captured in these numbers. I was trying to dig around for the broader unemployment rate that includes a larger number of folks.
The government sector took a fucking walloping. Continued decline of 585,000, 310,000 in local education. Those aren't good numbers since governments form the backbone/last line when an economic crisis hits. The vast majority of the increase is in leisure and hospitality and construction
I don't believe the numbers. I suspect someone's lying for Trump. However, facts and data will show the truth. I might be overly suspicious. What organization reports these numbers, who heads it and how do they get there?
I don't believe the numbers. I suspect someone's lying for Trump. However, facts and data will show the truth. I might be overly suspicious. What organization reports these numbers, who heads it and how do they get there?
You're being overly suspicious. The bureau of labor statistics is a highly regarded institution with a single political appointee that doesn't even have much direct control over the surveys and employment. Everything in the tables makes sense, especially in the context of states reopening.
I don't believe the numbers. I suspect someone's lying for Trump. However, facts and data will show the truth. I might be overly suspicious. What organization reports these numbers, who heads it and how do they get there?
Civil servants. Not signed by political appointees. Department of Labor. Numbers are based on standard surveys. They aren't lying but the measure has caveats that wouldn't cover all the people not working and receiving unemployment at the moment as it only captures those actively looking for work at the moment. Furloughed folks wouldn't count if they aren't looking. Folks with reduced hours wouldn't count. Stuff like that. Also those who have dropped out of the work force due to the virus.
I don't believe the numbers. I suspect someone's lying for Trump. However, facts and data will show the truth. I might be overly suspicious. What organization reports these numbers, who heads it and how do they get there?
You've also got the many retail/restaurant businesses returning their employees, then despairing because they still don't have enough customers to stay open. Without any rent assistance or stoppage (or allowance for renegotiation), you have retail and food especially operating in a reduced economy while the landlords demand full contractual payment.
Posts
As far as I know they'll still be publishing the unemployment numbers, just not the economic and deficit projections that every other administration has done.
The unemployment numbers will come out same as always. They are not putting out their usual forecast. White House forecasts are always ridiculously rosy anyway, so it shouldn't matter to anything practical.
...no? The first three salvos of the poem are, in order: Communists, Socialists, Trade Unions. After that it's Jews.
And it's not like Goldman Sachs, ADP, and various others aren't going to release their own projections anyway. You can't just will mass ignorance into being. Especially when it comes to making money.
No that should come out. This is the overall projections like GDP and growth not the month to month labor stats.
Won't the Fed still release their projections though?
CBO has already updated and released new projections just is this the Administrations version.
Bureau of Labor does this in their normal stats.
https://www.bls.gov/ces/
This is with last month's data of course.
fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
90% confidence interval... on which category the data belongs to :rotate:
fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
Think that's referring to the tiny little bars above the red dots. The almost invisible ones?
It is not a good graph.
I assumed it meant that the confidence interval was very short(or, y'know, the spectrum is excessively large), but I can see the other way, now.
It seems like the sort of thing that would work fine when you don't have to cover a split of +10 to -22,500
These are not normal times. Hell how many people remarked on thinking the last unemployment report had a border on the right hand side before realizing it was the latest figure?
Problem is most people aren't used to that.
It would also be informative to see a view that's normalized against the number of people in that industry.
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-angela-merkel-unveils-stimulus-package-to-kickstart-economy/a-53677420
It makes everything cheaper, which I guess is sorta-vaguely like putting cash in people's pockets, but that still depends on people having cash and going out and spending it. If you're broke, then a cut in VAT does you no good. Even from a raw math standpoint I don't think it's going to bump GDP as much as some form of straight up government spending would.
The other thing that stood out to me in the article though was:
Nah, the issue is the dot size compared to the scale and error bars. In many cases the dot is larger than the bars, which means it's unreadable and hard to tell where the actual point is. Things like data callouts/whiskers on values are a better fit here.
Unemployment down to 13%. The shit is over. There was no need for the doom and gloom after all.
So what would actually be “good” to see??
To not have a pandemic raging in a country that doesn't want to reckon with the reality that the only economically viable method to weather the storm is to provide for all of the people living in it regardless of circumstance.
If we get the same improvements in the next two months, unemployment will still be worse than at the peak of the great recession when the previous phases expire.
Treating this as meaning the crisis is over is nonsense
Edit: Economics professor:
You're being overly suspicious. The bureau of labor statistics is a highly regarded institution with a single political appointee that doesn't even have much direct control over the surveys and employment. Everything in the tables makes sense, especially in the context of states reopening.
Civil servants. Not signed by political appointees. Department of Labor. Numbers are based on standard surveys. They aren't lying but the measure has caveats that wouldn't cover all the people not working and receiving unemployment at the moment as it only captures those actively looking for work at the moment. Furloughed folks wouldn't count if they aren't looking. Folks with reduced hours wouldn't count. Stuff like that. Also those who have dropped out of the work force due to the virus.
You've also got the many retail/restaurant businesses returning their employees, then despairing because they still don't have enough customers to stay open. Without any rent assistance or stoppage (or allowance for renegotiation), you have retail and food especially operating in a reduced economy while the landlords demand full contractual payment.