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Updates on [SARS2/covid-19] (reboot)

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    ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    Seems like they should have come up with some more concrete answers in the 20 years since that presentation.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    ceres wrote: »
    Seems like they should have come up with some more concrete answers in the 20 years since that presentation.

    I mean, they have, it's just that as a society we seem to have transitioned from caring about this stuff to no longer giving a monkeys about it. So it's harder to find academic data on virus survivability studies.

    Like, another vaccine was shown to work in humanized animals yesterday. Solid results, another different mechanism giving good performance. The one being made by the Israeli research group? But, because noone cares about science really any more, the best link I've got is...

    https://www.jpost.com/health-science/iibr-coronavirus-vaccine-found-to-work-in-hamsters-632179

    The jerusalem post? Whereas a month ago information like this would have been page 1 of the New York Times with detailed documents talking about how hamsters are used, and so on.

    It's weird to live in this world where everyone cares a lot about the coronavirus, but we've all already kinda stopped caring about the complexities of it. I mean, not the people here on this forum, but the media in general.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    MeeqeMeeqe Lord of the pants most fancy Someplace amazingRegistered User regular
    For the mass public the only relevant information is when you can get a vaccine. Anything else is just more waiting. The fatigue from the public makes sense here.

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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.18.160655v1.full.pdf

    Here's the paper, its a good day to be a hamster! Lucky hamsters. Other than the fact they were all killed and their lungs were dissected. So I guess, sorry hamsters.

    Its actually a pretty interesting paper.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    edited June 2020
    Edit - discussion not updates. Sorry

    tbloxham on
    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    Also virus lives/dies under temperature/humidity conditions is very accessible and important From a lay perspective but also very not-sexy research from a purely academic/publishing perspective.

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    [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    Covid is re-surfacing in a big way in Germany. Friday R0 was estimated to be 1.06. Saturday it was at 1.79. Yesterday, it was at 2.88.

    And this data has a one- to two-week delay, so the number is likely higher in reality.

    Via Norwegian public broadcaster NRK.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
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    DoctorArchDoctorArch Curmudgeon Registered User regular
    In North Carolina we're having record-breaking numbers of hospitalizations despite our best efforts. Democratic governor in charge of a purple southern state, there is only so much one can do. That said, it does not appear likely that we are going to further open up into phase 3 at the end of the week.

    Switch Friend Code: SW-6732-9515-9697
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    MonwynMonwyn Apathy's a tragedy, and boredom is a crime. A little bit of everything, all of the time.Registered User regular
    Georgia saw its single largest one-day case spoke last Friday

    Thisisfine.jpg

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    GyralGyral Registered User regular
    DoctorArch wrote: »
    In North Carolina we're having record-breaking numbers of hospitalizations despite our best efforts. Democratic governor in charge of a purple southern state, there is only so much one can do. That said, it does not appear likely that we are going to further open up into phase 3 at the end of the week.
    Unfortunately for Cooper, everyone below him on the org chart is a Trump-adjacent moron. That he's managed to keep things as they are this long is a testament.

    25t9pjnmqicf.jpg
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    DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    https://www.wgal.com/article/pennsylvania-coronavirus-covid-19-state-updates/32932475

    The Pennsylvania governor says PA is one of three states with a downward trend, which is good

    I really doubt there is anywhere near enough testing to believe that idea

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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    https://www.wgal.com/article/pennsylvania-coronavirus-covid-19-state-updates/32932475

    The Pennsylvania governor says PA is one of three states with a downward trend, which is good

    I really doubt there is anywhere near enough testing to believe that idea

    If testing is up or flat and detected cases are going down, then you are in a very good spot. Barring some weird situation where the demographics of the infected population has changed massively (which you can't detect accurately because if cases are falling then tests will be more available and can be used for less sick patients)

    Still, if positive teste are falling that is a good thing, almost no question. You don't know how bad the outbreak is, or how much leeway you have, but it is getting better.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    Pennsylvania has tested 576,016 people, had 79,405 positive cases, 2325 probable positive

    There were 12.8 million people living in PA as of 2019

    That doesn't seem like enough testing

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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    University of Michigan says in person classes will happen in the fall and are planned for the winter. Enough classes will be online that students will be able to get credits remotely. Might require some changes in course order, but they say they're trying to be as cooperative as possible with degree requirements and what not.

    Fall break is eliminated, in person classes end the Friday before Thanksgiving. Remote classes for a week after Thanksgiving, exams the week after that, also remote (somehow). No winter commencement. Winter semester scheduled to start after MLK day.

    Housing will be open, with areas set aside for people who need to be quarantined. Students are asked to act as if the people they live with on campus are their families and not do much more than that (good luck).

    No word on sports yet.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Pennsylvania has tested 576,016 people, had 79,405 positive cases, 2325 probable positive

    There were 12.8 million people living in PA as of 2019

    That doesn't seem like enough testing

    It is not enough testing to make testing a key part of virus control. It is enough testing to make testing a reasonable part of virus monitoring.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    OghulkOghulk Tinychat Janitor TinychatRegistered User regular
    Texas Gov said yes the number of cases has increased dramatically and people need to take it seriously but no he's not changing anything and won't people please wear masks

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    VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    edited June 2020
    University of Michigan says in person classes will happen in the fall and are planned for the winter. Enough classes will be online that students will be able to get credits remotely. Might require some changes in course order, but they say they're trying to be as cooperative as possible with degree requirements and what not.

    Fall break is eliminated, in person classes end the Friday before Thanksgiving. Remote classes for a week after Thanksgiving, exams the week after that, also remote (somehow). No winter commencement. Winter semester scheduled to start after MLK day.

    Housing will be open, with areas set aside for people who need to be quarantined. Students are asked to act as if the people they live with on campus are their families and not do much more than that (good luck).

    No word on sports yet.

    This is pretty much exactly the same strategy the University of Wisconsin is doing. All classes of 100+ students are online only. Smaller classes and group discussions will be in larger rooms than normal to allow spreading out. Masks required inside of all campus buildings. Class schedules are also being changed to have classes Saturday and after 5pm during the week.

    Edit: Also said regular testing of anyone that works or lives in a residence hall, and random testing of the other students and staff.

    Edit2: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction also put out guidelines for the fall for public schools. Recommending no more than 10 kids per teacher, but leaving everything up to individual districts.

    I am currently a UW student and my wife is a teacher, and we are trying to prepare mentally about how we are definitely going to get this bug in the fall.

    Veevee on
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    ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    edited June 2020
    Pennsylvania has tested 576,016 people, had 79,405 positive cases, 2325 probable positive

    There were 12.8 million people living in PA as of 2019

    That doesn't seem like enough testing

    Definitely not enough testing, but enough to demonstrate trends. Just like you can accurately gauge support for a political candidate without asking every single person who they support.

    It's just not sufficient for knowing which specific people should quarantine, which is kinda useful information.

    ElJeffe on
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    DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Pennsylvania has tested 576,016 people, had 79,405 positive cases, 2325 probable positive

    There were 12.8 million people living in PA as of 2019

    That doesn't seem like enough testing

    Definitely not enough testing, but enough to demonstrate trends. Just like you can accurately gauge support for a political candidate without asking every single person who they support.

    It's just not sufficient for knowing which specific people should quarantine, which is kinda useful information.

    I think weekly testing of 500,000 might be useful

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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Pennsylvania has tested 576,016 people, had 79,405 positive cases, 2325 probable positive

    There were 12.8 million people living in PA as of 2019

    That doesn't seem like enough testing

    Definitely not enough testing, but enough to demonstrate trends. Just like you can accurately gauge support for a political candidate without asking every single person who they support.

    It's just not sufficient for knowing which specific people should quarantine, which is kinda useful information.

    I think weekly testing of 500,000 might be useful

    You probably don't need that level really. Up here we're testing 100k/week with a similar population

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    MovitzMovitz Registered User regular
    edited June 2020
    Is there a tracker on vaccine candidates and clinical trials anywhere? I can't keep up anymore since the information comes in bits and pieces and is then rehashed weeks later by the newspapers.

    Also, this annoying new thing of releasing non-peer reviewed sneak peeks of upcoming studies.

    Also also, retractions of published papers.

    It's a mess out there.

    Movitz on
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    TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Oghulk wrote: »
    Texas Gov said yes the number of cases has increased dramatically and people need to take it seriously but no he's not changing anything and won't people please wear masks

    He said this at a press conference that did not allow Houston or San Antonio to participate (I think just the papers). And on a day where just Houston reported 2000 new cases (Friday there were ~4000 statewide, and caveat that Monday numbers are inflated due to no weekend reporting).

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    VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    Movitz wrote: »
    Is there a tracker on vaccine candidates and clinical trials anywhere? I can't keep up anymore since the information comes in bits and pieces and is then rehashed weeks later by the newspapers.

    Also, this annoying new thing of releasing non-peer reviewed sneak peeks of upcoming studies.

    Also also, retractions of published papers.

    It's a mess out there.

    Clinicaltrials.gov is the official clearinghouse for that information, but navigation is not especially straightforward

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    MarekMarek Lurker Pro A screen door... factoryRegistered User regular
    edited June 2020
    Tomanta wrote: »
    Oghulk wrote: »
    Texas Gov said yes the number of cases has increased dramatically and people need to take it seriously but no he's not changing anything and won't people please wear masks

    He said this at a press conference that did not allow Houston or San Antonio to participate (I think just the papers). And on a day where just Houston reported 2000 new cases (Friday there were ~4000 statewide, and caveat that Monday numbers are inflated due to no weekend reporting).

    Edit - not the discussion thread, sorry.

    Marek on
    XBL: Jason Marek
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    FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
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    spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    DoctorArch wrote: »
    In North Carolina we're having record-breaking numbers of hospitalizations despite our best efforts. Democratic governor in charge of a purple southern state, there is only so much one can do. That said, it does not appear likely that we are going to further open up into phase 3 at the end of the week.

    Man, what best efforts. Mecklenberg county has given up. I'm the only person on the street wearing a mask, it's a party downtown on the weekend.

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    daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    89 new cases in the Czech Republic yesterday. That is not great but not horrible. R0 is creeping up to 1.2 range. 2,750 active cases and I believe the hospital capacity has been stated to be around 10k, so there's enough buffer to handle the two weeks of increased cases that's baked in to the situation should the daily numbers get bad enough that we need to lockdown again. I feel we're right on the line between keeping this thing stable and having it break out again. Masks are continuing to be mandatory indoors and on public transportation, and other than a few morons who wear the things with their face wang (or nose, as some might call it) hanging out compliance on that front is pretty damn good. Doesn't hurt that there was an up to 20k CZK (average monthly salary is 34k CZK) fine associated with not wearing them. The fine was very rarely imposed, but it certainly gave the police something to yell at people about.

    One interesting bit of trivia I discovered yesterday is that the percentage of the population with A, B, AB and O type blood is highly variable between countries. It came up in conversation due to the whole thing where people with type A blood might be more susceptible to COVID than those with type O.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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    MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Venezuela is emerging as yet another hotspot in the Americas. At the rate things are going, the entire Western Hemisphere south of Canada will be put under a quarantine by the rest of the world.

    Speaking of hotspots, Yakima County, WA has run out of hospital beds. Patients are being shipped to hospitals outside the county but there is already a wait for beds.

    If you are a crazy person like me constantly looking at world news you may have noticed the freaky aggressive positivism of Indian press lately. Everything is just fine, India is the best, we will beat China in a short victorious war, SARS2 is going away because there is absolutely definitely no community transmission though 50% or more of the population could get infected but that's okay and is actually a good thing because we'll do the Swedish herd immunity thing but it'll somehow work somehow, and how dare you question this? Unsurprisingly India is persecuting journalists who question Modi's official state narrative. Imagine Fox News is the media, almost full stop, and that's basically India right now. Just like in Brazil and Russia and the US, vote for right-wing authoritarians, get rewarded with death and gaslighting.

    Which reminds me, the Florida COVID cover-up accelerates:






    BREAKING: 1 OF 3: Florida announced yesterday they're not counting the icu bed availability anymore, a key element in keeping things open, so the state can proceed to the next phase by July 4.

    BREAKING 2 OF 3 I have multiple sources at DOH who have just told me they have been instructed this week to change the numbers and begin slowly deleting deaths and cases so it looks like Florida is improving next week in the leadup to July 4, like they've "made it over the hump."

    BREAKING 3 OF 3 I've independently verified they've deleted at least 1200 cases in the last week.They're only reporting all these cases now so they can restrict reporting next week to make everyone think it's over. I've had two DOH employees in different offices confirm

    Rebekah Jones is the Florida data scientist whistleblower who created her own database to counteract the original Florida COVID dashboard which is being tampered with for right-wing political purposes.


    That's been a partial doom news roundup for the morning.

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    spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    edited June 2020
    edit: not the discussion thread

    spool32 on
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    ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    daveNYC wrote: »
    One interesting bit of trivia I discovered yesterday is that the percentage of the population with A, B, AB and O type blood is highly variable between countries. It came up in conversation due to the whole thing where people with type A blood might be more susceptible to COVID than those with type O.

    Okay waaaaat

    Blood types? Do you have a source for this? Like a pretty damn good one? I might be a little behind at this point, I don't know, but this one is news to me and I'd appreciate a source.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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    DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    edited June 2020
    ceres wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    One interesting bit of trivia I discovered yesterday is that the percentage of the population with A, B, AB and O type blood is highly variable between countries. It came up in conversation due to the whole thing where people with type A blood might be more susceptible to COVID than those with type O.

    Okay waaaaat

    Blood types? Do you have a source for this? Like a pretty damn good one? I might be a little behind at this point, I don't know, but this one is news to me and I'd appreciate a source.

    The percentages of blood types in a population or the COVID/blood type interaction? I know I just saw the latter the other day. While A seems to have the worse time of it and O the easiest it was something like a 30% shift in COVID being severe and was caveated all up and down about how it doesn't mean a thing about how an individual should act regarding safety.

    The other thing I hadn't heard but it shouldn't be too surprising.

    Edit: I think this is the study I saw referenced the other day: https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/06/18/genes-blood-type-tied-to-covid-19-risk-of-severe-disease/

    DevoutlyApathetic on
    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
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    daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    ceres wrote: »
    daveNYC wrote: »
    One interesting bit of trivia I discovered yesterday is that the percentage of the population with A, B, AB and O type blood is highly variable between countries. It came up in conversation due to the whole thing where people with type A blood might be more susceptible to COVID than those with type O.

    Okay waaaaat

    Blood types? Do you have a source for this? Like a pretty damn good one? I might be a little behind at this point, I don't know, but this one is news to me and I'd appreciate a source.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_type_distribution_by_country

    Exactly what it says on the tin. I thought it was crazy too, but there's some pretty wide variation. Rh negatives are all lower than their positive equivalents, but even then there's a lot of variation. Pro hint, if you're O-, you might want to BYOB if you ever go to South Korea.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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    MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    Virginia to create first pandemic workplace safety mandates in nation, as Trump labor agency sits on sidelines
    OSHA has issued only one citation in response to more than 4,000 coronavirus-related complaints, a jarring record that workplace advocates and former OSHA officials have criticized in recent weeks as a neglect of the agency’s duties.

    "Millions of workers are terrified of going into jobs every day where they are not adequately protected from the coronavirus,” said David Michaels, a former OSHA head who served during the Obama administration. “Thousands of workers have complained to OSHA, and OSHA has told them they’re on their own. . . . State governments are stepping into the void.”

    Virginia’s standard requires that employers develop policies for workers dealing with coronavirus-like symptoms, while prohibiting those workers suspected of having the coronavirus from showing up to work. The new rules would force companies to notify workers of possible exposure to infected co-workers within 24 hours, while also mandating physical distancing as well as sanitation, disinfection and hand-washing procedures.

    The regulations have drawn praise from unions, labor advocates and many workers. But they’ve also drawn sharp opposition from many businesses and industry groups, which say the new regulations are unnecessary in the face of existing guidelines from the state and federal agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and OSHA.

    Those guidelines are recommendations, which carry fewer legal ramifications than enforceable standards do. By contrast, Virginia officials said the state’s inspectors will police the new regulations, under penalties of up to $124,000 and the threat of closure in severe cases.

    Another, elections, consequences and the fact the states have to step on this stuff because the Feds are absent.

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    GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    There are other pathogens with variable pathogenesis depending on blood type or things like hemochromotosis; I don't have any data on COVID but it isn't outlandish, especially if blood clotting is leading to significant morbidities.

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    ceresceres When the last moon is cast over the last star of morning And the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderator mod
    I know about blood types, I was asking about its relevance to covid. I did find a thing about it this morning, apparently there is enough "there" there for it to be meaningful but needs more study. That bodes slightly less well for the people who live in this apartment.

    And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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    Big DookieBig Dookie Smells great! Houston, TXRegistered User regular
    I've really been wanting to get back to the gym lately, so this week I finally ventured out during a time when I thought it wouldn't be as busy. I was wearing a bandana over my face instead of a mask because I thought that might be easier to work out in, but I had something at least. When I got there, other than the workers, I was literally the only other person to be wearing a face covering. Note this is in Fort Bend County, just outside Harris County, TX, one of the primary hotspots in the whole country for new infections. When I left, I swore I wouldn't return until there was a mandatory face covering requirement in place.

    Well good news, Fort Bend County announced yesterday that they would follow Harris County and implement a mandatory face covering requirement for all businesses, subject to a $500 fine for each violation. Great right? Except that there are some exceptions. In addition to all churches and places of worship being entirely exempt (seriously, what in the actual fuck?) there are a few others:
    Face coverings are not required to be worn in either of the following circumstances (emphasis added by me):

    a) Outside facilities;

    b) When doing so poses a greater mental or physical health, safety, or security risk;

    c) While pumping gas or operating outdoor equipment;

    d) While in a building or activity that requires security surveillance or screening, for example, banks, or

    e) When consuming food or drink.

    I'm already seeing a significant number of posts on social media that people are going to use that second condition to avoid following the order. Since businesses are not allowed to ask for medical history, pretty much anyone can simply claim that wearing a mask poses a risk to their mental health and they can be considered exempt. Hell, even at a gym specifically, people could claim that physical exertion while using a mask to lead to lack of oxygen and fatigue problems. Which generally is bullshit, but again, all they have to do is claim that it's true.

    I don't know. I was happy that my county finally got with the program, but now reading about how many people are actively seeking out ways to avoid following it... it's all quite depressing. I'm going to try the gym one more time tomorrow and see if this mandate has actually changed anything, but I have a strong suspicion that won't be the case.

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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    ceres wrote: »
    I know about blood types, I was asking about its relevance to covid. I did find a thing about it this morning, apparently there is enough "there" there for it to be meaningful but needs more study. That bodes slightly less well for the people who live in this apartment.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2

    https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/06/18/genes-blood-type-tied-to-covid-19-risk-of-severe-disease/

    I would say that if this was anything other than the human body being afflicted by a disease, where statistical studies seem to be notoriously affected outlier factors etc (like, maybe it just secretly turns out that people with O type blood are lazier or some ridiculous nonsense like that) that the evidence was pretty darn rock solid that if you have O type blood you are marginally less likely to catch it and marginally less likely to have a severe case whereas A was worse for both, and B/AB was neutral.

    The risk shift is not that large, perhaps 20% or so up/down. However there's also a distinct dearth of correlating data. Like, when does this risk factor turn on vs age? Is it everyone, or is it like really bad to be old and have A type blood? Maybe it only matters if you also are a man? Or maybe A type blood + being a woman is as bad as being a man, but men are already as bad as can be. And so on and so on.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    HeraldSHeraldS Registered User regular
    edited June 2020
    Veevee wrote: »
    University of Michigan says in person classes will happen in the fall and are planned for the winter. Enough classes will be online that students will be able to get credits remotely. Might require some changes in course order, but they say they're trying to be as cooperative as possible with degree requirements and what not.

    Fall break is eliminated, in person classes end the Friday before Thanksgiving. Remote classes for a week after Thanksgiving, exams the week after that, also remote (somehow). No winter commencement. Winter semester scheduled to start after MLK day.

    Housing will be open, with areas set aside for people who need to be quarantined. Students are asked to act as if the people they live with on campus are their families and not do much more than that (good luck).

    No word on sports yet.

    This is pretty much exactly the same strategy the University of Wisconsin is doing. All classes of 100+ students are online only. Smaller classes and group discussions will be in larger rooms than normal to allow spreading out. Masks required inside of all campus buildings. Class schedules are also being changed to have classes Saturday and after 5pm during the week.

    Edit: Also said regular testing of anyone that works or lives in a residence hall, and random testing of the other students and staff.

    Edit2: Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction also put out guidelines for the fall for public schools. Recommending no more than 10 kids per teacher, but leaving everything up to individual districts.

    I am currently a UW student and my wife is a teacher, and we are trying to prepare mentally about how we are definitely going to get this bug in the fall.

    Small private schools with large enough endowments to shrug off a revenue shortfall this year are being stupid too. Davidson College is planning on having any student that wants to be on campus on campus with ever so slightly modified in-class instruction and dormitory living. Testing, spacing, and posting new rules everywhere sound lovely but will do fuck-all to keep covid from spreading. The incoming freshmen lost the last few months of their high school experience and will be starved for social interactions. They'll mingle, and fart around town and the closest 3 exits off the highway, and then professors and custodial staff will start dying. Goddamn it. I'm actually so furious here that I can't finish the rest of what I was going to write. School this fall is going to be a shitshow, no matter where or what kind.

    HeraldS on
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    ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    Big Dookie wrote: »
    Since businesses are not allowed to ask for medical history, pretty much anyone can simply claim that wearing a mask poses a risk to their mental health and they can be considered exempt.

    I don't think this is actually true, it's just some sovcit stuff that people can throw in the face of the average shop clerk and expect them not to know otherwise.

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    SkeithSkeith Registered User regular
    edited June 2020
    The DOJ is saying the 14-day quarantine for out of state travelers here in Hawaii is unconstitutional. So we'll see what happens there-- local spread is still a thing, and adding tourists to it will make it uncontrollable.

    Skeith on
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