Florida seems to be maintaining a 1:6 positive rate and has not increased it's testing rate, and masks are still a suggestion. I'm not at all eager to go back to WFH, but I'm pretty concerned that a rate explosion followed by linear growth just means we've hit the ceiling on our test capacity, and we're not going to react appropriately until the death curve catches up in ~2.5 weeks.
Tweeter is the Governor of New York requesting people traveling from some states self quarantine before entry to New York.
"Request" isn't exactly right. I looked this up a few days ago and it is up to a $10,000 fine if you didn't. Doesn't apply to folks traveling through. Oh and you quarantine after you arrive, not before you leave wherever you come from.
Is that fine actually enforceable? Something local governments have been talking about since quarantine first started months ago is how none of these safety measures are actually enforceable, and it'd look really weird / fashy to get cops involved for the purposes of enforcement.
I guess it depends on what way you mean. It, at least in NY, is an executive order and I assume in line with enabling laws. So yeah, a judge can slap you with a fine. I think it goes $1,000 for a first offense and more as you continue but always with the option of $10,000 if you can be shown to cause harm (i.e. infect somebody else.)
Fake Edit: Checking on this it references Article 21 of NY law which includes provisions for involuntary commitment if somebody disregards orders regarding communicable diseases. So I'd say yeah.
The reality is that all of that is just a theoretical stick to emphasize to folks it is a big serious deal. Unless you somehow publicly announce what you're doing nobody is going to know. If you've got a neighbor who reports you or something it will only end up beyond a stern talking to if you're a giant asshole.
Tweeter is the Governor of New York requesting people traveling from some states self quarantine before entry to New York.
"Request" isn't exactly right. I looked this up a few days ago and it is up to a $10,000 fine if you didn't. Doesn't apply to folks traveling through. Oh and you quarantine after you arrive, not before you leave wherever you come from.
Many people did not take it seriously in their home states. Hoping they will suddenly do so outside of those states seems highly implausible.
Black lives matter.
Law and Order ≠ Justice
ACNH Island Isla Cero: DA-3082-2045-4142
Captain of the SES Comptroller of the State
Florida seems to be maintaining a 1:6 positive rate and has not increased it's testing rate, and masks are still a suggestion. I'm not at all eager to go back to WFH, but I'm pretty concerned that a rate explosion followed by linear growth just means we've hit the ceiling on our test capacity, and we're not going to react appropriately until the death curve catches up in ~2.5 weeks.
Any time I see linear case numbers I suspect it's a matter of testing capacity. Yes, it could mean r close to 1... but the simplest explanation is still going to be "we can run X tests/day".
Tweeter is the Governor of New York requesting people traveling from some states self quarantine before entry to New York.
"Request" isn't exactly right. I looked this up a few days ago and it is up to a $10,000 fine if you didn't. Doesn't apply to folks traveling through. Oh and you quarantine after you arrive, not before you leave wherever you come from.
Many people did not take it seriously in their home states. Hoping they will suddenly do so outside of those states seems highly implausible.
I get your point but the national conversation is shifting again with all those home states being awash in covid cases and shutting down.
Where I am in upstate masks are probably over 90% indoors for retail places I've seen.
Librarian's ghostLibrarian, Ghostbuster, and TimSporkRegistered Userregular
edited June 2020
My school board voted unanimously to require all staff and students to wear masks this fall. They are buying five reusable ones for every staff member and student and will be having students only come in two to three times (alternating the Wednesday) a week to cut in half the number of students in the classrooms.
Guess we’ll see how it goes. My job is basically going to turn into iPad support for the teachers/student, which I don't really mind since it isn't like I'm going to be needing to manage a packed library anytime soon.
ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
edited June 2020
My kids go to private schools, but the one also largely tries to follow what the county does. The state has some crazy goals for the coming school year that I would be really surprised if they could possibly hit, public schools are drastically underfunded here. I'm not sure where my son's school will end up exactly, although I could probably handle part-time here much easier than full-time.
We also may not be living here anymore within two months, and the likelihood of that is increasing by the day. Annnnd frankly if he ends up with even full-time homeschooling until we can work something out, we'll most likely be staying with my father-in-law and like.. he'll have little else to do. My FIL is miles and miles and miles from the nearest school. If we need to make that move we won't have an option.
Buuuuut also our lease is up in August, we sign a new one or..........not, and leave. I hate to do it, but no job=no rent, and there's no job yet and we're getting to the point where we need to look at our savings vs. the fact that if we sign a new lease and need to move very soon we'll be on the hook for rent (not to mention damages good LORD are there damages) until they can find a new tenant. Frankly, at this point... there may not be a new job here, because that's what it means to live in a tourist town. At least his dad won't charge us rent until he has a job.
edit: You know what, I can't remember if it's July 15th or August 15th. If it's July 15th holy shit that is not much time. Guess I'm making a phone call when the manager gets back from her 4-hour lunch break!
ceres on
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
Just got back from donating blood. Nice turnout and they're doing well for procedures except there was a radio station in attendance glomming on for promotion. The radio station staff were not wearing masks and refusing them from the donor staff who were periodically trying to give them some. Donor staff aren't in charge of the building they're using so they dont technically have the authority to force the radio guys to comply or get out.
So that's nice. This is in the midst of a local resurgence in cases; we havent gone a day in two weeks without a report of a place that reopened having to close back up due to exposure.
PBS correspondant with a report from Dr. Fauci testifying today.
100k a day infections a day? Jesus christ.
100k detected a day. Remember that in the march peak we had 2000 deaths a day for weeks which means we probably had 200k infected every day. This is cold comfort of course, because, its not like the virus will just get to 100k a day and then stop.
PBS correspondant with a report from Dr. Fauci testifying today.
100k a day infections a day? Jesus christ.
that's 5000 deaths a day give or take...
horrifying
500?
Nah, 5000. 5% death rate * 100k = 5k. And that's based on our experience thus far, it doesn't account for what things would look like in a scenario like Houston's, where the hospitals reach capacity and we just can't treat everybody.
Yeah, school in the fall is a huge concern I’m worried about.
We still don’t know how our district is gonna handle education amidst the pandemic and no one is looking forward to repeat the mad scramble of home teaching back in March. It’s stressful enough that I decided not to go back to school this fall because I can’t afford the time investment for college and home school.
I don’t want children in school if it’s gonna put their health, or the health of family and school staff, at risk. But at the same time, I know they are getting a subpar education at home.
Furthermore, what about all the people who have to work and lack the resources for their children’s education? I’m fortunate enough to have the option to stay home, but I know a lot of people who don’t have that and are going to have to make hard choices between work and child care/education.
Do we take the risk and send children to school, or keep them learning from home, but with a subpar education and screw anyone that doesn’t have the time to be their child’s primary educator and/or can’t afford child care?
Maybe something in between with enforced face masks, handwashing, and smaller classes so the kids can socially distance? Maybe a three day school weeks to stagger the students and extra homework? Of course this option sounds like a nightmare for educators, and they’re already under enough stress as is.
I don’t think there are any good answers, just different degrees of risk and hardship. It’d be nice if the federal government decided to help, but I feel like that’s a lost cause as long as Trump is in the White House.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
For many, many kids this will be a lost year.
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
Although many countries do have legislation on the books that basically rescind's Gilead's patent temporarily and allows governments to buy Chinese or Indian produced drugs. So far they generally haven't used them, but I guess we'll see now.
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Librarian's ghostLibrarian, Ghostbuster, and TimSporkRegistered Userregular
I don't really know what they except teachers who also have children in school are supposed to do on the days those kids are supposed to stay at home.
PBS correspondant with a report from Dr. Fauci testifying today.
100k a day infections a day? Jesus christ.
that's 5000 deaths a day give or take...
horrifying
500?
Nah, 5000. 5% death rate * 100k = 5k. And that's based on our experience thus far, it doesn't account for what things would look like in a scenario like Houston's, where the hospitals reach capacity and we just can't treat everybody.
I thought the overall death rate was much lower than that? Closer to one percent.
PBS correspondant with a report from Dr. Fauci testifying today.
100k a day infections a day? Jesus christ.
that's 5000 deaths a day give or take...
horrifying
500?
Nah, 5000. 5% death rate * 100k = 5k. And that's based on our experience thus far, it doesn't account for what things would look like in a scenario like Houston's, where the hospitals reach capacity and we just can't treat everybody.
I thought the overall death rate was much lower than that? Closer to one percent.
Edit: I thought you said 0.1%
Mild Confusion on
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
PBS correspondant with a report from Dr. Fauci testifying today.
100k a day infections a day? Jesus christ.
that's 5000 deaths a day give or take...
horrifying
500?
Nah, 5000. 5% death rate * 100k = 5k. And that's based on our experience thus far, it doesn't account for what things would look like in a scenario like Houston's, where the hospitals reach capacity and we just can't treat everybody.
I thought the overall death rate was much lower than that? Closer to one percent.
It is, *but* testing doesn't catch all cases. So number of deaths / number of confirmed cases is currently running around 5%.
PBS correspondant with a report from Dr. Fauci testifying today.
100k a day infections a day? Jesus christ.
that's 5000 deaths a day give or take...
horrifying
500?
Nah, 5000. 5% death rate * 100k = 5k. And that's based on our experience thus far, it doesn't account for what things would look like in a scenario like Houston's, where the hospitals reach capacity and we just can't treat everybody.
I thought the overall death rate was much lower than that? Closer to one percent.
That’s seasonal flu.
COVID-19 has a higher rate of death.
People keep quoting flu stats from 2017-18 and the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
Thing is those were some of the worst flu years in decades.
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
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OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
Staff and teachers would have to wear face masks at all times.
All students would have to wear face masks in hallways and common areas and on buses. Every student would have to use hand sanitizer before getting on the bus.
Students in grade 6 through 12 would have to wear face masks at all times; younger students wouldn't have to wear face masks in classrooms.
It would be recommended that desks be placed six feet apart and students and teachers social distance, even in the classroom.
Schools would have to work with local health departments on screening protocols.
No indoor assemblies with students from more than one classroom would be allowed.
It would be recommended that most meals be served in the classroom or outdoors. It would be recommended that meal times would be staggered to allow social distancing in the cafeteria if it was being used.
Athletics would have to follow the MHSAA guidance and rules. Spectators would be allowed if they are wearing face masks and maintaining social distancing.
So I posted these in the update thread, but here's Michigan's plan for schools, at least in areas were the virus is not exponential, but still prevalent. Which is most of the state and especially Metro Detroit where I teach. If you follow that recommendation, hybrid online/in person is required.
I probably have to video tape lectures and assign watching them as homework and use in class time to get questions answered. Also group work basically forbidden so students can't help each other.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
Deaths lag hospitalizations; hospitalizations lag positive testing; positive tests lag rescinding quarantine.
It took longer for this new spike to hit than I would have guessed back in May when things reopened, so the increase in corpses may similarly take longer to manifest than worst case assumptions. Still, July is going to be rough.
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
Death to positive test ratio is way down even accounting for lag (I.e. deaths divided by positive tests 2 weeks ago)
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
Deaths lag hospitalizations; hospitalizations lag positive testing; positive tests lag rescinding quarantine.
It took longer for this new spike to hit than I would have guessed back in May when things reopened, so the increase in corpses may similarly take longer to manifest than worst case assumptions. Still, July is going to be rough.
It was “cool” enough to be outside when we started reopening (mostly)
Granted, this is just speculation, but I think a large part of the uptick being majority younger population is just the portion of the population that just plain wasn't getting tested back in March. So whatever the ratio of under 40 to over 40 cases is right now, we likely had the same ratio back in March/April/May, it's just that testing capacity wasn't even considering that population unless they needed hospitalization.
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
Deaths lag hospitalizations; hospitalizations lag positive testing; positive tests lag rescinding quarantine.
It took longer for this new spike to hit than I would have guessed back in May when things reopened, so the increase in corpses may similarly take longer to manifest than worst case assumptions. Still, July is going to be rough.
It was “cool” enough to be outside when we started reopening (mostly)
Now everyone’s inside at bars (later phases)
That really depends on where in the country you are. It's perfect patio weather in Chicago right now.
But still, I was thinking we would be looking like today back at the start of June rather than now at the end of it. So assuming deaths start to spike next week, rather than later in July, seems like it might be premature as well. But maybe not. Regardless, August is going to have a lot of needless funerals.
Testing in spring was basically non existent. Antibody testing in NYC at the end of April estimated that around 20% of residents had had COVID. That is 2.7m people- but NYC only had 150k confirmed cases at the time. In April the only way to get tested was to be basically be admitted to a hospital levels of sick. Less sever cases just weren't getting tested at all. As testing has expanded-however inadequately - that was always going to drive down the death rate.
tinwhiskers on
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
edited June 2020
In response to Texas having bars closed in the wake up the uptick of coronavirus cases, there are now protests using the slogan "Bar Lives Matter." I'm tired.
Edit - Oh right sourcing, sorry it's been a while. Photos from the state capitol. "Save our spirits" for fuck's sake you can still buy alcohol. Unless you're in Smith County.
In my subjective experience in my own family, which of course is totally anecdotal, it's the younger people who are taking it the most seriously, and the boomers are taking it less seriously but still being somewhat careful, and the person I know who is doing the worst job of social distancing is... wait for it... my wife's 85-year old grandmother. Who can't seem to be talked out of getting haircuts or visiting with friends or things like that. So I'm not counting on the new cases being concentrated among younger generations. Important to keep in mind that, especially in places like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, the young people tend to be more progressive and the older people tend to feast on a steady diet of FOX News and conservative talk radio.
Again, though, anecdotal experience.
My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
Deaths lag hospitalizations; hospitalizations lag positive testing; positive tests lag rescinding quarantine.
It took longer for this new spike to hit than I would have guessed back in May when things reopened, so the increase in corpses may similarly take longer to manifest than worst case assumptions. Still, July is going to be rough.
It was “cool” enough to be outside when we started reopening (mostly)
Now everyone’s inside at bars (later phases)
That really depends on where in the country you are. It's perfect patio weather in Chicago right now.
But still, I was thinking we would be looking like today back at the start of June rather than now at the end of it. So assuming deaths start to spike next week, rather than later in July, seems like it might be premature as well. But maybe not. Regardless, August is going to have a lot of needless funerals.
I'm rolling with the theory that outside is mostly lower risk. So while the south is packing themselves into bars and restaurants indoors, the north is mostly hanging outside when being more social. This will obviously change later in the summer and then into the fall. I hope we collectively get some of our shit together before then.
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
Deaths lag hospitalizations; hospitalizations lag positive testing; positive tests lag rescinding quarantine.
It took longer for this new spike to hit than I would have guessed back in May when things reopened, so the increase in corpses may similarly take longer to manifest than worst case assumptions. Still, July is going to be rough.
This is pure conjecture, but my internal explanation for the longer-than-expected lag is that things started opening up May 1st, but people were still generally cautious. It took a few weeks for more and more people to start throwing caution to the wind, and then Memorial Day was probably a big day for people saying "fuck it, I'm still going to enjoy my summer." I'm worried that despite the cases exploding, July 4th is going to be the same.
In response to Texas having bars closed in the wake up the uptick of coronavirus cases, there are now protests using the slogan "Bar Lives Matter." I'm tired.
Edit - Oh right sourcing, sorry it's been a while. Photos from the state capitol. "Save our spirits" for fuck's sake you can still buy alcohol. Unless you're in Smith County.
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
Deaths lag hospitalizations; hospitalizations lag positive testing; positive tests lag rescinding quarantine.
It took longer for this new spike to hit than I would have guessed back in May when things reopened, so the increase in corpses may similarly take longer to manifest than worst case assumptions. Still, July is going to be rough.
It was “cool” enough to be outside when we started reopening (mostly)
Now everyone’s inside at bars (later phases)
That really depends on where in the country you are. It's perfect patio weather in Chicago right now.
But still, I was thinking we would be looking like today back at the start of June rather than now at the end of it. So assuming deaths start to spike next week, rather than later in July, seems like it might be premature as well. But maybe not. Regardless, August is going to have a lot of needless funerals.
Yep, and people might have been drinking outside in Texas and Arizona and the South at the start of reopening but by the later phases everyone was inside at the bars/restaurants
The North is starting to catch up now that it’s hot here too
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
I'm hoping that the fatality rate ends up being much lower than that, due to hospitals better understanding how to treat severe cases. I mean, that's about all we have to hold onto at this point in places like here in Texas. The fatality rate hasn't spiked here yet despite the massive rise in new cases--it's been pretty flat. But our case count didn't start rising dramatically until about 2 weeks ago, so the new deaths may just not be showing up yet. Still, I do have some hope that treatments like dexamethasone will make a difference and save a lot of lives and keep hospitals from being overwhelmed as quickly or as badly.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
Deaths lag hospitalizations; hospitalizations lag positive testing; positive tests lag rescinding quarantine.
It took longer for this new spike to hit than I would have guessed back in May when things reopened, so the increase in corpses may similarly take longer to manifest than worst case assumptions. Still, July is going to be rough.
It was “cool” enough to be outside when we started reopening (mostly)
Now everyone’s inside at bars (later phases)
That really depends on where in the country you are. It's perfect patio weather in Chicago right now.
But still, I was thinking we would be looking like today back at the start of June rather than now at the end of it. So assuming deaths start to spike next week, rather than later in July, seems like it might be premature as well. But maybe not. Regardless, August is going to have a lot of needless funerals.
It was really beautiful yesterday and still two digits today. After today everything is going to be awful for the rest of the summer and only the most dedicated will be outside. We do have those mask rules and hopefully it helps some, but once we hit July no one goes outside here until like October. One of us will need to go out today and tomorrow, so we'll see if the mask situation still looks as good in our area as it did Friday. We'll see.
If we are going to have to move, at least this is the time of year when I have the least problem with leaving Vegas. :P
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
PBS correspondant with a report from Dr. Fauci testifying today.
100k a day infections a day? Jesus christ.
that's 5000 deaths a day give or take...
horrifying
500?
Nah, 5000. 5% death rate * 100k = 5k. And that's based on our experience thus far, it doesn't account for what things would look like in a scenario like Houston's, where the hospitals reach capacity and we just can't treat everybody.
The death rate is not 5%. The hospitalization rate isn't even believed to be 5%. You cannot use any aspect of US sampling data blindly to evaluate what the death rate is, because we have massive undersampling. Almost everyone has under sampling in fact, but, if you look at the places which have done best (and their, 'best', has almost nothing to do with actually being able to treat people better) we see...
New Zealand 22 deaths / 1528 cases. -> 1.4%
South Korea 282 deaths / 12800 cases. -> 2.2%
Iceland 10 deaths / 1824 cases. -> 0.5%
Singapore 23 deaths / 43907 cases. -> 0.1 %. (Singapore IS an outlier here, because their infections are overwhelmingly inside their worker blocks in young people, which is why their death rate is approaching what the death rate looks like for people 30 - 40 in well studied populations)
Hong Kong 7 deaths / 1207 cases. -> 0.6 %
You can even dive into the USA and look at some cities here which have been working harder at testing.
And what you notice even there is a strong relationship between how hard someone tests for the virus or how well a population is screened, and a reduced death rate. Since there is no strongly effective treatment to reduce death rate (other than perhaps better medical know how which has emerged over time) screening a population doesn't help people survive. It just helps stop additional infections.
The death rate is somewhere in the 0.5 - 1.5 % range. Most best estimates I've seen place it at around 0.7%. This is terrible, catastrophic. But it is not 5%.
Right now in the US we are having around 600 deaths a day. Which means we probably had 'truly' 60k infections a day around 3 weeks ago.
Now, perhaps what Fauci is saying here is that we should expect to DETECT 100k cases a day, and that he views at that point our ability to screen for cases will have collapsed, and so the deaths/detected cases 2-3 weeks earlier will be back at 5% again, which would mean that there were actually 500k cases a day. However, we do have significantly enhanced test capability right now, so I would expect our detected cases vs real cases number would stay a little better.
Granted, this is just speculation, but I think a large part of the uptick being majority younger population is just the portion of the population that just plain wasn't getting tested back in March. So whatever the ratio of under 40 to over 40 cases is right now, we likely had the same ratio back in March/April/May, it's just that testing capacity wasn't even considering that population unless they needed hospitalization.
Agree 100%, there may be some shielding behavior in older groups and some protection of care homes etc, but there are enough like, 65 year old dudes who just do whatever they want and don't care that it's not the case that only young people have been out and about and all the old people are locked in their homes.
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I guess it depends on what way you mean. It, at least in NY, is an executive order and I assume in line with enabling laws. So yeah, a judge can slap you with a fine. I think it goes $1,000 for a first offense and more as you continue but always with the option of $10,000 if you can be shown to cause harm (i.e. infect somebody else.)
Fake Edit: Checking on this it references Article 21 of NY law which includes provisions for involuntary commitment if somebody disregards orders regarding communicable diseases. So I'd say yeah.
The reality is that all of that is just a theoretical stick to emphasize to folks it is a big serious deal. Unless you somehow publicly announce what you're doing nobody is going to know. If you've got a neighbor who reports you or something it will only end up beyond a stern talking to if you're a giant asshole.
Many people did not take it seriously in their home states. Hoping they will suddenly do so outside of those states seems highly implausible.
Law and Order ≠ Justice
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Any time I see linear case numbers I suspect it's a matter of testing capacity. Yes, it could mean r close to 1... but the simplest explanation is still going to be "we can run X tests/day".
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I get your point but the national conversation is shifting again with all those home states being awash in covid cases and shutting down.
Where I am in upstate masks are probably over 90% indoors for retail places I've seen.
Guess we’ll see how it goes. My job is basically going to turn into iPad support for the teachers/student, which I don't really mind since it isn't like I'm going to be needing to manage a packed library anytime soon.
We also may not be living here anymore within two months, and the likelihood of that is increasing by the day. Annnnd frankly if he ends up with even full-time homeschooling until we can work something out, we'll most likely be staying with my father-in-law and like.. he'll have little else to do. My FIL is miles and miles and miles from the nearest school. If we need to make that move we won't have an option.
Buuuuut also our lease is up in August, we sign a new one or..........not, and leave. I hate to do it, but no job=no rent, and there's no job yet and we're getting to the point where we need to look at our savings vs. the fact that if we sign a new lease and need to move very soon we'll be on the hook for rent (not to mention damages good LORD are there damages) until they can find a new tenant. Frankly, at this point... there may not be a new job here, because that's what it means to live in a tourist town. At least his dad won't charge us rent until he has a job.
edit: You know what, I can't remember if it's July 15th or August 15th. If it's July 15th holy shit that is not much time. Guess I'm making a phone call when the manager gets back from her 4-hour lunch break!
PBS correspondant with a report from Dr. Fauci testifying today.
100k a day infections a day? Jesus christ.
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that's 5000 deaths a day give or take...
horrifying
So that's nice. This is in the midst of a local resurgence in cases; we havent gone a day in two weeks without a report of a place that reopened having to close back up due to exposure.
100k detected a day. Remember that in the march peak we had 2000 deaths a day for weeks which means we probably had 200k infected every day. This is cold comfort of course, because, its not like the virus will just get to 100k a day and then stop.
500?
Nah, 5000. 5% death rate * 100k = 5k. And that's based on our experience thus far, it doesn't account for what things would look like in a scenario like Houston's, where the hospitals reach capacity and we just can't treat everybody.
We still don’t know how our district is gonna handle education amidst the pandemic and no one is looking forward to repeat the mad scramble of home teaching back in March. It’s stressful enough that I decided not to go back to school this fall because I can’t afford the time investment for college and home school.
I don’t want children in school if it’s gonna put their health, or the health of family and school staff, at risk. But at the same time, I know they are getting a subpar education at home.
Furthermore, what about all the people who have to work and lack the resources for their children’s education? I’m fortunate enough to have the option to stay home, but I know a lot of people who don’t have that and are going to have to make hard choices between work and child care/education.
Do we take the risk and send children to school, or keep them learning from home, but with a subpar education and screw anyone that doesn’t have the time to be their child’s primary educator and/or can’t afford child care?
Maybe something in between with enforced face masks, handwashing, and smaller classes so the kids can socially distance? Maybe a three day school weeks to stagger the students and extra homework? Of course this option sounds like a nightmare for educators, and they’re already under enough stress as is.
I don’t think there are any good answers, just different degrees of risk and hardship. It’d be nice if the federal government decided to help, but I feel like that’s a lost cause as long as Trump is in the White House.
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Although many countries do have legislation on the books that basically rescind's Gilead's patent temporarily and allows governments to buy Chinese or Indian produced drugs. So far they generally haven't used them, but I guess we'll see now.
I thought the overall death rate was much lower than that? Closer to one percent.
Edit: I thought you said 0.1%
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It is, *but* testing doesn't catch all cases. So number of deaths / number of confirmed cases is currently running around 5%.
People keep quoting flu stats from 2017-18 and the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
Thing is those were some of the worst flu years in decades.
two weeks is just long enough for the leading edge of the death wave to start hitting. So...hold onto your butts and watch that death count.
So I posted these in the update thread, but here's Michigan's plan for schools, at least in areas were the virus is not exponential, but still prevalent. Which is most of the state and especially Metro Detroit where I teach. If you follow that recommendation, hybrid online/in person is required.
I probably have to video tape lectures and assign watching them as homework and use in class time to get questions answered. Also group work basically forbidden so students can't help each other.
Deaths lag hospitalizations; hospitalizations lag positive testing; positive tests lag rescinding quarantine.
It took longer for this new spike to hit than I would have guessed back in May when things reopened, so the increase in corpses may similarly take longer to manifest than worst case assumptions. Still, July is going to be rough.
Death to positive test ratio is way down even accounting for lag (I.e. deaths divided by positive tests 2 weeks ago)
It was “cool” enough to be outside when we started reopening (mostly)
Now everyone’s inside at bars (later phases)
That really depends on where in the country you are. It's perfect patio weather in Chicago right now.
But still, I was thinking we would be looking like today back at the start of June rather than now at the end of it. So assuming deaths start to spike next week, rather than later in July, seems like it might be premature as well. But maybe not. Regardless, August is going to have a lot of needless funerals.
Edit - Oh right sourcing, sorry it's been a while. Photos from the state capitol. "Save our spirits" for fuck's sake you can still buy alcohol. Unless you're in Smith County.
Again, though, anecdotal experience.
I'm rolling with the theory that outside is mostly lower risk. So while the south is packing themselves into bars and restaurants indoors, the north is mostly hanging outside when being more social. This will obviously change later in the summer and then into the fall. I hope we collectively get some of our shit together before then.
This is pure conjecture, but my internal explanation for the longer-than-expected lag is that things started opening up May 1st, but people were still generally cautious. It took a few weeks for more and more people to start throwing caution to the wind, and then Memorial Day was probably a big day for people saying "fuck it, I'm still going to enjoy my summer." I'm worried that despite the cases exploding, July 4th is going to be the same.
I wonder how people who run mortuaries feel about all of this. They're small businesses too, after all.
I assume conflicted.
Looks like some businesses really do not want a liquor license
Yep, and people might have been drinking outside in Texas and Arizona and the South at the start of reopening but by the later phases everyone was inside at the bars/restaurants
The North is starting to catch up now that it’s hot here too
It was really beautiful yesterday and still two digits today. After today everything is going to be awful for the rest of the summer and only the most dedicated will be outside. We do have those mask rules and hopefully it helps some, but once we hit July no one goes outside here until like October. One of us will need to go out today and tomorrow, so we'll see if the mask situation still looks as good in our area as it did Friday. We'll see.
If we are going to have to move, at least this is the time of year when I have the least problem with leaving Vegas. :P
The death rate is not 5%. The hospitalization rate isn't even believed to be 5%. You cannot use any aspect of US sampling data blindly to evaluate what the death rate is, because we have massive undersampling. Almost everyone has under sampling in fact, but, if you look at the places which have done best (and their, 'best', has almost nothing to do with actually being able to treat people better) we see...
New Zealand 22 deaths / 1528 cases. -> 1.4%
South Korea 282 deaths / 12800 cases. -> 2.2%
Iceland 10 deaths / 1824 cases. -> 0.5%
Singapore 23 deaths / 43907 cases. -> 0.1 %. (Singapore IS an outlier here, because their infections are overwhelmingly inside their worker blocks in young people, which is why their death rate is approaching what the death rate looks like for people 30 - 40 in well studied populations)
Hong Kong 7 deaths / 1207 cases. -> 0.6 %
You can even dive into the USA and look at some cities here which have been working harder at testing.
San Francisco 50 deaths / 3564 cases. -> 1.4%
Or at well studied populations in Italy
Italian Medical Personnel 87 deaths / 29211 cases -> 0.3 % (Marginally odd age distribution, excluding the youngest and oldest, but an average age of infected person of ~50)
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_23-giugno-2020.pdf
And what you notice even there is a strong relationship between how hard someone tests for the virus or how well a population is screened, and a reduced death rate. Since there is no strongly effective treatment to reduce death rate (other than perhaps better medical know how which has emerged over time) screening a population doesn't help people survive. It just helps stop additional infections.
The death rate is somewhere in the 0.5 - 1.5 % range. Most best estimates I've seen place it at around 0.7%. This is terrible, catastrophic. But it is not 5%.
Right now in the US we are having around 600 deaths a day. Which means we probably had 'truly' 60k infections a day around 3 weeks ago.
Now, perhaps what Fauci is saying here is that we should expect to DETECT 100k cases a day, and that he views at that point our ability to screen for cases will have collapsed, and so the deaths/detected cases 2-3 weeks earlier will be back at 5% again, which would mean that there were actually 500k cases a day. However, we do have significantly enhanced test capability right now, so I would expect our detected cases vs real cases number would stay a little better.
Agree 100%, there may be some shielding behavior in older groups and some protection of care homes etc, but there are enough like, 65 year old dudes who just do whatever they want and don't care that it's not the case that only young people have been out and about and all the old people are locked in their homes.