Austin! I feel like I've been making an effort over here, lots of much quieter people around like Wildcat that could be looked at that aren't contributing much. I do like that you're trying to suss out the active hiders though, kind of like....
I don't think premium reaching out is weird, but everything else you just said makes sense and is completely reasonable. But IMO the backbone of this particular game is gonna end up being in the soft networking, which isn't everyone's *cough* pointing at self *cough* particular cup of tea
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
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AuralynxDarkness is a perspectiveWatching the ego workRegistered Userregular
Cythraul can surely do better to answer our suspicions than merely to point at Wildcat.
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
Personally, I think people put a little too much stock in the "tie". Not that there can't be useful information from looking at it, but the unsaid mandate "Thou shalt not make a tie near vote close" creates some odd dynamics like run away band wagons.
The superstition that needs to die in a fire (IMO) is "reserves are always mafia", cause that's only going to make people not want to sign up as a reserve. There may be some truth to it, but I'd much rather give a reservist the benefit of the doubt if it would encourage people to sign up.
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
Personally, I think people put a little too much stock in the "tie". Not that there can't be useful information from looking at it, but the unsaid mandate "Thou shalt not make a tie near vote close" creates some odd dynamics like run away band wagons.
The superstition that needs to die in a fire (IMO) is "reserves are always mafia", cause that's only going to make people not want to sign up as a reserve. There may be some truth to it, but I'd much rather give a reservist the benefit of the doubt if it would encourage people to sign up.
I can't tell if your criticizing people that set up ties, or that avoid them. Personally when it comes to ties, there is no steadfast rule and context is king (time of day, what day of the game, how many people left to vote, etc).
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
The superstition that needs to die in a fire (IMO) is "reserves are always mafia", cause that's only going to make people not want to sign up as a reserve. There may be some truth to it, but I'd much rather give a reservist the benefit of the doubt if it would encourage people to sign up.
I agree with this part. Though I do think if you were already suspicious of who the reserve is filling in for, then it's still fair game.
"May the moon watch over you and keep you safe through the night, 'till the morning comes and MamaWolf can protect you through the day"
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ObiFettUse the ForceAs You WishRegistered Userregular
I like creating ties when its clear we are still fishing for mafia.
MamaWolfThe wolf pack guides all to safetyRegistered Userregular
As for this game in itself. I know there is a lot of networking that has to happen because trying to find out factions, but looking at quite people may be valid.
"May the moon watch over you and keep you safe through the night, 'till the morning comes and MamaWolf can protect you through the day"
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
The superstition that needs to die in a fire (IMO) is "reserves are always mafia", cause that's only going to make people not want to sign up as a reserve. There may be some truth to it, but I'd much rather give a reservist the benefit of the doubt if it would encourage people to sign up.
I agree with this part. Though I do think if you were already suspicious of who the reserve is filling in for, then it's still fair game.
The problem is those folks are usually suspicious for "low activity" (which is what is getting them replaced). So then if you excuse that when thinking about the replacement, and start fresh, well it takes a couple days to get a fresh read on someone and by then you're day 5 and if that person was a mafia the village is way behind on hunting them. Even worse if they're the last mafia as you've been knocking off villagers while "giving them a pass".
it's kind of a Catch 22 situation. Or maybe not, I could be using that wrong.
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
The superstition that needs to die in a fire (IMO) is "reserves are always mafia", cause that's only going to make people not want to sign up as a reserve. There may be some truth to it, but I'd much rather give a reservist the benefit of the doubt if it would encourage people to sign up.
I agree with this part. Though I do think if you were already suspicious of who the reserve is filling in for, then it's still fair game.
Well that's just not fair to whoever has to take over for Green. Husband bias shouldn't transmute to the reserver.
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
Personally, I think people put a little too much stock in the "tie". Not that there can't be useful information from looking at it, but the unsaid mandate "Thou shalt not make a tie near vote close" creates some odd dynamics like run away band wagons.
The superstition that needs to die in a fire (IMO) is "reserves are always mafia", cause that's only going to make people not want to sign up as a reserve. There may be some truth to it, but I'd much rather give a reservist the benefit of the doubt if it would encourage people to sign up.
It's not really a universally strong mandate. I personally am super against ties, though. I think they are baaaaad.
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
The superstition that needs to die in a fire (IMO) is "reserves are always mafia", cause that's only going to make people not want to sign up as a reserve. There may be some truth to it, but I'd much rather give a reservist the benefit of the doubt if it would encourage people to sign up.
I agree with this part. Though I do think if you were already suspicious of who the reserve is filling in for, then it's still fair game.
Well that's just not fair to whoever has to take over for Green. Husband bias shouldn't transmute to the reserver.
This is a fair point to which I will be more aware of in future games.
MamaWolf on
"May the moon watch over you and keep you safe through the night, 'till the morning comes and MamaWolf can protect you through the day"
You did! And your argument seems to boil down to "There's no way Premium would have changed their vote to Gizzy at the last moment, because that's too suspicious" which rather ignores the fact that people do make mistakes. Although as a very casual player of these games, I suspect there are certain conventions in how things are done that are intended to signal to others that "Hey, I'm a villager!" and I just may not know how to read these. But then my paranoia kicks in and I think "A mafia could do that too!".
Premium also reached out to me after lunch today asking to share knowledge of our factions. Which, considering I've been pushing to kill him for two days, seems like an unusual move.
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
The superstition that needs to die in a fire (IMO) is "reserves are always mafia", cause that's only going to make people not want to sign up as a reserve. There may be some truth to it, but I'd much rather give a reservist the benefit of the doubt if it would encourage people to sign up.
I agree with this part. Though I do think if you were already suspicious of who the reserve is filling in for, then it's still fair game.
Well that's just not fair to whoever has to take over for Green. Husband bias shouldn't transmute to the reserver.
Eh, i feel like that's part of the replacement bag: People's reads on the original don't change your role when you take over, they can still be valid.
Cythraul can surely do better to answer our suspicions than merely to point at Wildcat.
So far there's been nothing levied against me besides "I think he's suspicious." So let's start raising some suspicions.
Wildcat - Only a few posts, nothing about the game really.
kime - Making vague finger-pointing while not pressing the issue. Seems very mafia-kime, deflecting while looking like he's helping but not committing, plus placeholder vote then sticks around til vote close? Eeeeehhhhh
Obifett - Votes discrider after he dies. Messes up his followup vote on Austin, so instead votes ZH. Not entirely sure what to make of it but it feels off, and I'm slightly surprised nobody else seems to be caring.
Burnage - Suuuuper quiet. I know we don't have a lot to go on yet but still.
Gonna keep looking, but really I feel like the votes on me today are as little lazy.
My vote is based on light suspicion. It's day 2, gotta vote someone and at the time there were no other votes on her so I wanted to see if anyone else agreed. Sadly bbcode sucks to type on phone so my vote was 2nd because my post took too long to type :P
Unfortunately because we're are not very chatty on thread, (most likely because we are paranoid due to unknown faction stuff) there's not a lot of analysis going on. Mainly cause real life gets in the way and paranoia gets the better of everyone. So, people may not want to analyze in public to avoid helping people.
"May the moon watch over you and keep you safe through the night, 'till the morning comes and MamaWolf can protect you through the day"
Uh, I was voting for Cythrual because I liked the logic better than voting for you kime. And when two trains have formed, I'm going to back one as then we at least have something to talk about.
I am saying nothing, so nothing can be used against me!
[color=reedWildcat[/colour. The reason: Nothing!
But in seriousness, I'm going back to my vote from yesterday, still think Lucedes is flying low ,but at least is present.
SegaTai D1 was on the Roman wagon so wouldn't have been able to do more to help Gizzy day one (especially now that we know Roman was village)
D2 Sat early on the mamawolf vote and didn't budge for some... interesting initial rationale (especially since Roman's villageness was unknown then)
D3 Has been mute
The whole game they have been very quiet.
Posts
kime! Give me your analysis!
Confusion will be my epitaph
Edit- @Heffling
No people just have weird superstitions that they repeat enough until they believe them.
Not all heuristics are created equal, and none will be 100% accurate. Doesn't mean they're useless (not that you said they were). Most of them are definitely over used (or over-referenced).
Personally, I think people put a little too much stock in the "tie". Not that there can't be useful information from looking at it, but the unsaid mandate "Thou shalt not make a tie near vote close" creates some odd dynamics like run away band wagons.
The superstition that needs to die in a fire (IMO) is "reserves are always mafia", cause that's only going to make people not want to sign up as a reserve. There may be some truth to it, but I'd much rather give a reservist the benefit of the doubt if it would encourage people to sign up.
I can't tell if your criticizing people that set up ties, or that avoid them. Personally when it comes to ties, there is no steadfast rule and context is king (time of day, what day of the game, how many people left to vote, etc).
Yeah, but I'm totally mafia didn't you know?
I agree with this part. Though I do think if you were already suspicious of who the reserve is filling in for, then it's still fair game.
So always.
Lucedes
The problem is those folks are usually suspicious for "low activity" (which is what is getting them replaced). So then if you excuse that when thinking about the replacement, and start fresh, well it takes a couple days to get a fresh read on someone and by then you're day 5 and if that person was a mafia the village is way behind on hunting them. Even worse if they're the last mafia as you've been knocking off villagers while "giving them a pass".
it's kind of a Catch 22 situation. Or maybe not, I could be using that wrong.
Well that's just not fair to whoever has to take over for Green. Husband bias shouldn't transmute to the reserver.
It's not really a universally strong mandate. I personally am super against ties, though. I think they are baaaaad.
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
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This is a fair point to which I will be more aware of in future games.
Eh, i feel like that's part of the replacement bag: People's reads on the original don't change your role when you take over, they can still be valid.
This is super suspicious to me.
So far there's been nothing levied against me besides "I think he's suspicious." So let's start raising some suspicions.
Wildcat - Only a few posts, nothing about the game really.
kime - Making vague finger-pointing while not pressing the issue. Seems very mafia-kime, deflecting while looking like he's helping but not committing, plus placeholder vote then sticks around til vote close? Eeeeehhhhh
Obifett - Votes discrider after he dies. Messes up his followup vote on Austin, so instead votes ZH. Not entirely sure what to make of it but it feels off, and I'm slightly surprised nobody else seems to be caring.
Burnage - Suuuuper quiet. I know we don't have a lot to go on yet but still.
Gonna keep looking, but really I feel like the votes on me today are as little lazy.
Confusion will be my epitaph
You know this already!
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
Or you could like MY analysis and vote yourself!
Confusion will be my epitaph
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
Confusion will be my epitaph
Unfortunately because we're are not very chatty on thread, (most likely because we are paranoid due to unknown faction stuff) there's not a lot of analysis going on. Mainly cause real life gets in the way and paranoia gets the better of everyone. So, people may not want to analyze in public to avoid helping people.
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
In fact, JusticeforPluto
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
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JusticeforPluto
He’s in a good place on the mafia killing vote.
BUT!
Ill change my vote to JayKaos for walking into the middle of all this and refusing to put a foot in the game. No one else thinks that's suspicious?
Well balls that's a good point. J4P
Penny Arcade Rockstar Social Club / This is why I despise cyclists
[color=reedWildcat[/colour. The reason: Nothing!
But in seriousness, I'm going back to my vote from yesterday, still think Lucedes is flying low ,but at least is present.
SegaTai D1 was on the Roman wagon so wouldn't have been able to do more to help Gizzy day one (especially now that we know Roman was village)
D2 Sat early on the mamawolf vote and didn't budge for some... interesting initial rationale (especially since Roman's villageness was unknown then)
D3 Has been mute
The whole game they have been very quiet.
Most likely extended, unless the group prefers otherwise.