EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
I’ve heard that a bunch of times before they power up in the Florida straits. Conditions aren’t great for a hurricane, but we always prepare as if it will be another Charlie or Irene
We had a run on water at work today. We're still a little light on water as it is, due to Covid still making people buy water for some reason. So far it looks like a barely Cat 1 storm at most, which means we probably won't be closed long, if at all depending when it hits.
I’ve heard that a bunch of times before they power up in the Florida straits. Conditions aren’t great for a hurricane, but we always prepare as if it will be another Charlie or Irene
Yeah that's why ideally it goes east of the stay so we're on the back side of it. Gulf is just stupid warm right now...
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
NOAA has revised its forcast as "we don't know how strong it will get" as of this morning. I guess conditions are really favorable after it gets through Hispanola. If it holds together long enough to get to the north shore they are anticipating it strengthening a lot. Forcast has also narrowed to anticipating the East Coast of Florida, though that could change.
Looks like Matthew or Irma energies now. I only just paid off the last Irma repairs in January, haha. ~sigh~
It's shifted east as they had been expecting. Still not hitting Hurricane, though I saw one with windspeeds of 70mph right before the landfall event on the carolinas.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Hurricane now. @Edith_Bagot-Dix Heading your way, though you're probably already aware.
Laura is spinning up in the Atlantic now. It will probably lose some energy as it is forecast to either hit Hispaniola and Cuba dead on, or maybe ride their northern coasts. But after that it will likely spin back up in the gulf before hitting the gulf coast as a hurricane somewhere, possibly New Orleans. In the short term, I think south Florida should keep one eye on it, then after it clears Florida we'll have to see where it lands.
Meanwhile, to the South, Marco will likely clip the Yucatan, then spin back up over the Gulf as well, hitting probably somewhere to the East of Laura, but on a similar timeline. Michael, which hit Rockport/Port A on the Texas Coast before flooding Houston had a similar initial track, and made landfall on almost the same day as this is forecast to. Michael gained energy much faster than expected, but I think the Gulf isn't as warm right now as it was that year. Still definitely something to keep an eye on.
TBD: How will these storms interact? Where will they hit? How bad will it be?
TBD: How will these storms interact? Where will they hit? How bad will it be?
Fujiwhara effects are hard to predict, but considering this year, my assumptions are "as bad as it can possibly get, worse than you imagined and somehow dumber too."
Some of the models I've seen trying to predict the effects don't give me any hope that I'll be wrong.
How prepared is LA for this? I mean infrastructure wise. I know Katrina was a while ago, and these are supposed to be relatively weak compared to that one, but two in a row, or possibly even at the same time for a little while, seems like a lot.
As somebody who's potentially in the path of these two storms, what's the likelihood of them strengthening dramatically as they hit the Gulf of Mexico? Apparently the waters over the Gulf are quite hot, which gives me bad flashbacks to Katrina.
The source of this claim comes from this tweet from a Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with a checkmark on Twitter, who I found from a link in this story from the Washington Post, so it should be reliable
As somebody who's potentially in the path of these two storms, what's the likelihood of them strengthening dramatically as they hit the Gulf of Mexico? Apparently the waters over the Gulf are quite hot, which gives me bad flashbacks to Katrina.
The source of this claim comes from this tweet from a Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with a checkmark on Twitter, who I found from a link in this story from the Washington Post, so it should be reliable
Quite hot but not abnormally so, and quite a lot colder than before Katrina or any of the other big ones. Barring "hi fuck you imma park on the coast" shenanigans or other weird shit they should both be fairly weak.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
DO NOT ASSUME THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK. Goodness sakes, be better than that.
There has been a tendency in these last few years for storms to intensify beyond predictions once they get going. Prepare for a hurricane. If it fizzles out and is nothing, be glad all you did was waste some time. You do not want to be unprepared in the event of two back-to-back hurricanes.
Definitely be ready for flooding. Even if both storms flop into tropical depressions before landfall or something, they're still big slugs of moisture coming your way. Again, if it doesn't pan out, good. Better to be ready just in case.
+16
AbsalonLands of Always WinterRegistered Userregular
edited August 2020
How horrible that the GOP's convention might be muted and distracted by an issue they insist does not exist.
Absalon on
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
They are absolutely welcome to move their convention to a beach directly in the path of the storms while bleating "fake news." Put their money where their mouths are, set up their tents right above the high tide line.
+11
OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
They are absolutely welcome to move their convention to a beach directly in the path of the storms while bleating "fake news." Put their money where their mouths are, set up their tents right abovebelow the high tide line.
+5
Blackhawk1313Demon Hunter for HireTime RiftRegistered Userregular
DO NOT ASSUME THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK. Goodness sakes, be better than that.
There has been a tendency in these last few years for storms to intensify beyond predictions once they get going. Prepare for a hurricane. If it fizzles out and is nothing, be glad all you did was waste some time. You do not want to be unprepared in the event of two back-to-back hurricanes.
Definitely be ready for flooding. Even if both storms flop into tropical depressions before landfall or something, they're still big slugs of moisture coming your way. Again, if it doesn't pan out, good. Better to be ready just in case.
Hi there, Michael would like to have a word on this. Ask me about how I drove home from a family outing with an expected Cat 1 on Monday, and then walked out of the house into the apocalypse from a Cat 5 on Wednesday.
DO NOT ASSUME THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK. Goodness sakes, be better than that.
There has been a tendency in these last few years for storms to intensify beyond predictions once they get going. Prepare for a hurricane. If it fizzles out and is nothing, be glad all you did was waste some time. You do not want to be unprepared in the event of two back-to-back hurricanes.
Definitely be ready for flooding. Even if both storms flop into tropical depressions before landfall or something, they're still big slugs of moisture coming your way. Again, if it doesn't pan out, good. Better to be ready just in case.
Also even if they are weak, the combined flooding and damage from two storms back to back could very well be a damage multiplier if they do hit the same area. Quantity has a quality all its own, and water won’t have time to drain or flood levels to go down very far before round 2 in the event of a double hit.
DO NOT ASSUME THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK. Goodness sakes, be better than that.
There has been a tendency in these last few years for storms to intensify beyond predictions once they get going. Prepare for a hurricane. If it fizzles out and is nothing, be glad all you did was waste some time. You do not want to be unprepared in the event of two back-to-back hurricanes.
Definitely be ready for flooding. Even if both storms flop into tropical depressions before landfall or something, they're still big slugs of moisture coming your way. Again, if it doesn't pan out, good. Better to be ready just in case.
Also even if they are weak, the combined flooding and damage from two storms back to back could very well be a damage multiplier if they do hit the same area. Quantity has a quality all its own, and water won’t have time to drain or flood levels to go down very far before round 2 in the event of a double hit.
Laura is tracking a little more west right now, so a double hit is less likely (subject to change). But Laura is also predicting to be stronger when it hits than yesterday.
Hurricanes tends to have wide area of effect, looking at the projected paths for these two systems, it would seem you're going to have quite a bit of overlap on impacted areas.
Hurricanes tends to have wide area of effect, looking at the projected paths for these two systems, it would seem you're going to have quite a bit of overlap on impacted areas.
Some overlap, maybe. It really depends on where Laura ends up and how big/strong she is. Last update was anywhere from Corpus Christi to New Orleans as anywhere from Cat 1 to Cat 4. Not much certainty there.
Laura dodged/is dodging Cuba and the track is more defined. Looks like she will probably hit as a moderate to major Hurricane between the TX/LA border and Houston.
Laura dodged/is dodging Cuba and the track is more defined. Looks like she will probably hit as a moderate to major Hurricane between the TX/LA border and Houston.
Models are already saying upwards of Cat 4, which would be bad enough if Marco wasn't about to pre-saturate all the ground beforehand, which Marco is already starting to do. That dose of moisture opens the possibility of a brown ocean effect, where very damp air/ground can continue to feed a hurricane after it makes landfall, making it much slower to weaken so effects can be worse further inland in places that would normally just be a bit windy and blustery.
+1
FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
Has Houston improved its drainage issues from last time?
Has Houston improved its drainage issues from last time?
Haha, no.
Houston floods constantly. There probably have been drainage improvements, bur those are very slow projects to get started. Still, not too worried about rain from Laura, it should blow through quickly. Wind its going to be the threat here and for Houston maybe not even that (and Houston is on the "good" side), it seems to be staying closer to the TX/LA border. That area is probably fucked.
That said, flash flooding is a problem. Imelda dumped a lot of water quickly, causing major street (and homes, in some cases) flooding. That was mostly gone a few hours later.
The worse scenario is happening as Laura tracks more west, putting Beaumont on the east side of the storm and under mandatory evacuation, and putting Houston and Galveston in serious danger.
Spacecityweather.com - the best source of no hype forecasting for Houston - is making Ike comparisons. Ike left the region - spreading up into East Texas - without power for weeks.
The worse scenario is happening as Laura tracks more west, putting Beaumont on the east side of the storm and under mandatory evacuation, and putting Houston and Galveston in serious danger.
Spacecityweather.com - the best source of no hype forecasting for Houston - is making Ike comparisons. Ike left the region - spreading up into East Texas - without power for weeks.
Ike wiped out Galveston completely and took years to recover.
Can't tell if Marco will presaturate any areas that are in Laura's path. Even though it's likely going to be a depression when it makes landfall, it can still dump a shit ton of water that will contribute to a possible brown ocean effect. Honestly, that is and has been my biggest concern with two systems in the gulf at the same time on a fairly similar path. Is that one sets the stage for the other to be more damaging than it otherwise would be.
I'm hoping it won't do what the remnants of the last system did to the Hampton Roads area at the start of the month, where a ton a people were without power. Also my area has the BS where our cable providers are running stuff off of power poles. So found out that I can be in a situation where I have power, but no internet connection for two days. Seriously, fuck ISPs.
MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Marco's remnants went west along the Louisiana coast, though I haven't been able to figure out exactly how far west the rains went, so with Laura tracking further west, it's hard to tell if it'll be a brown ocean or not.
Even if not though, Laura's already Cat 2 and climbing. Plus
Unsurvivable storm surge with large, destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, TX, to Intracoastal City, LA. Surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland.
If you need to evacuate, do so NOW. Surge will begin today, well ahead of the strongest winds
I heard on the news that people have been advised that if for whatever goddamn reason you don't listen, and don't evacuate, don't bother calling 911 because no one is coming for you.
Posts
Yeah that's why ideally it goes east of the stay so we're on the back side of it. Gulf is just stupid warm right now...
Looks like Matthew or Irma energies now. I only just paid off the last Irma repairs in January, haha. ~sigh~
Laura is spinning up in the Atlantic now. It will probably lose some energy as it is forecast to either hit Hispaniola and Cuba dead on, or maybe ride their northern coasts. But after that it will likely spin back up in the gulf before hitting the gulf coast as a hurricane somewhere, possibly New Orleans. In the short term, I think south Florida should keep one eye on it, then after it clears Florida we'll have to see where it lands.
Meanwhile, to the South, Marco will likely clip the Yucatan, then spin back up over the Gulf as well, hitting probably somewhere to the East of Laura, but on a similar timeline. Michael, which hit Rockport/Port A on the Texas Coast before flooding Houston had a similar initial track, and made landfall on almost the same day as this is forecast to. Michael gained energy much faster than expected, but I think the Gulf isn't as warm right now as it was that year. Still definitely something to keep an eye on.
TBD: How will these storms interact? Where will they hit? How bad will it be?
Trump will need to sharpie Marco though.
Fujiwhara effects are hard to predict, but considering this year, my assumptions are "as bad as it can possibly get, worse than you imagined and somehow dumber too."
Some of the models I've seen trying to predict the effects don't give me any hope that I'll be wrong.
1pm Monday and then 2pm wednesday. Southern LA is in for a shitty shitty week.
PSN:Furlion
The source of this claim comes from this tweet from a Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with a checkmark on Twitter, who I found from a link in this story from the Washington Post, so it should be reliable
The story:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/22/tropical-storms-laura-marco/
Or does the second storm push the first surge further inland...
Quite hot but not abnormally so, and quite a lot colder than before Katrina or any of the other big ones. Barring "hi fuck you imma park on the coast" shenanigans or other weird shit they should both be fairly weak.
There has been a tendency in these last few years for storms to intensify beyond predictions once they get going. Prepare for a hurricane. If it fizzles out and is nothing, be glad all you did was waste some time. You do not want to be unprepared in the event of two back-to-back hurricanes.
Definitely be ready for flooding. Even if both storms flop into tropical depressions before landfall or something, they're still big slugs of moisture coming your way. Again, if it doesn't pan out, good. Better to be ready just in case.
Hi there, Michael would like to have a word on this. Ask me about how I drove home from a family outing with an expected Cat 1 on Monday, and then walked out of the house into the apocalypse from a Cat 5 on Wednesday.
Also even if they are weak, the combined flooding and damage from two storms back to back could very well be a damage multiplier if they do hit the same area. Quantity has a quality all its own, and water won’t have time to drain or flood levels to go down very far before round 2 in the event of a double hit.
Laura is tracking a little more west right now, so a double hit is less likely (subject to change). But Laura is also predicting to be stronger when it hits than yesterday.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Some overlap, maybe. It really depends on where Laura ends up and how big/strong she is. Last update was anywhere from Corpus Christi to New Orleans as anywhere from Cat 1 to Cat 4. Not much certainty there.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL142020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/092405_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Models are already saying upwards of Cat 4, which would be bad enough if Marco wasn't about to pre-saturate all the ground beforehand, which Marco is already starting to do. That dose of moisture opens the possibility of a brown ocean effect, where very damp air/ground can continue to feed a hurricane after it makes landfall, making it much slower to weaken so effects can be worse further inland in places that would normally just be a bit windy and blustery.
Haha, no.
Houston floods constantly. There probably have been drainage improvements, bur those are very slow projects to get started. Still, not too worried about rain from Laura, it should blow through quickly. Wind its going to be the threat here and for Houston maybe not even that (and Houston is on the "good" side), it seems to be staying closer to the TX/LA border. That area is probably fucked.
That said, flash flooding is a problem. Imelda dumped a lot of water quickly, causing major street (and homes, in some cases) flooding. That was mostly gone a few hours later.
Spacecityweather.com - the best source of no hype forecasting for Houston - is making Ike comparisons. Ike left the region - spreading up into East Texas - without power for weeks.
I'm hoping it won't do what the remnants of the last system did to the Hampton Roads area at the start of the month, where a ton a people were without power. Also my area has the BS where our cable providers are running stuff off of power poles. So found out that I can be in a situation where I have power, but no internet connection for two days. Seriously, fuck ISPs.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Even if not though, Laura's already Cat 2 and climbing. Plus
@Gustav I hope you're ready for rain.
Thankfully it is missing Houston, but it's not good for anyone on the TX/LA border.
This is a good graphic to show how far inland the surge might go.
Anyone in SW LA within about 30 miles of the coast should be evacuating inland now.