I'm guessing the Supreme Court stuff got a bunch of people who were unlikely voters to swap to likely. Might also explain Ohio inching closer to Biden.
I know we've all been hurt before and it seems like this nightmare isn't going to end, but guys I'm looking at these polls and I honestly think we're going to win.
As others have said, until Biden is sworn in at noon on January 20th, there's still plenty of chance for it to go wrong.
The polling news isn't bleak, but it shouldn't be seen as a reason for complacency, and it most definitely shouldn't be seen as a reason to take the foot off the gas.
The more Biden wins by (assuming he wins), the better. Limping across the finish is just a bandaid. This isn't just about removing Trump. This is about making sure it doesn't happen again.
Winning with 271 EC is a win (if uncontested). Winning with 350+ is a repudiation, and the US needs that if it wants to rebuild it's standing in the world. If the rest of the world see a squeaker and that Trump, or someone worse (ie, similarly vile, but more competent) may be back in 4, 8, 12, 20 years, then why trust America long term?
Barr is going to have a statement or some such about an "investigation" before October is done with. I consider this a reasonable prediction.
My nihilist prediction is they are gearing up to arrest Biden. It's extremely unlikely, but I would not be surprised to find out Trump or a crony have mentioned it.
There is basically zero chance that Biden is arrested. Nothing has come forward suggesting that he's been involved with criminal activity up to this point so even if he did start an investigation over "the crimes", dude has about 5 weeks to do an investigation and arrest biden which would be both stunningly fast and transparently bullshit to the point where the FBI is liable to refuse.
No, I'm sure Trump would love to have biden arrested in the event that he realizes he's going to lose but there simply isn't enough time to concoct an excuse.
Dude cops in Virginia charged the VA Senate's President pro tempore for felony "injury to a monument" the day before she started a special session for considering police reforms.
If they want to try and arrest him, they need exactly zero time to concoct bullshit. They've also had, like, four years to think up bullshit.
Yeah that's state level. We're talking federal where the people that would go after biden would be either Marshals or the FBI, and I can't imagine any of there agents would be eager to cuff the potential president in 4 months.
Because that's the other end of this; even if he's arrested he still needs to be convicted which I'm sure the DNC would make a long and protracted shit show, during which they'll be running adds like crazy and galvanizing Trump's opposition like nothing else.
Like, it's the single stupidest thing they could possibly do to try and beat biden.
Don't need to do all that. All they really need is a bullshit indictment. It'll disillusion some reluctant Biden voters who will then sit this one out as a form of "protest" or vote third party to fellate their ego by voting their conscience.
Also Trump sees the actual dictators that he idolizes arrest political opponents so he'll want to prove he's a big deal and do the same.
EDIT: for real I think it's very unlikely Biden the elder gets indicted. Trump and/or Barr would be absolutely crazy to try it. Unfortunately that means it's not totally crazy to think it could happen.
This one goes into detail about how he was about to crash and burn but then The Apprentice saved his ass, whereupon he took the money he made from that and bought a bunch of buildings and golf courses that have hemorrhaged money ever since. Also got into a lot of shady deals with MLM companies, things like Trump University, putting his name on apartments and condos in order to attract investors and then pulling out leaving them holding the bag, and finally getting in over his head when Apprentice checks stopped rolling in. All things we have known for years, but now with solid numbers to back them up.
None of this is making me feel particularly better about what the 3 month period between him losing the election and leaving office is going to be like.
Basically all the recent (~2 weeks or so) put Biden between 48-55 and Trump 40-45 in PA. It's averaging out to Biden ~+5.5, and he is consistently either at 50% or so close it would require a substantial systematic polling error to fall short of it. Except for one weird Trafalgar outlier, the same thing can be said of MI and almost of WI (where Trump is at 46 in a few).
That doesn't mean we know how this will turn out, but it gives us a really good pre-debate state of the race I think
Some of this polling could be undecideds breaking for Biden
Death by a thousand cuts finally pushing folks to say that enough is enough
Also Biden’s been good in coverage lately. It’s him with snappy remarks and pushing on Trump Which could be countering any of the “Biden’s lost it!” Narrative that sunk in a bit
The scotus stuff could be waking people up too. Most folks like a check on power so seeing another pick go hard right might have moderates a bit concerned
This one goes into detail about how he was about to crash and burn but then The Apprentice saved his ass, whereupon he took the money he made from that and bought a bunch of buildings and golf courses that have hemorrhaged money ever since. Also got into a lot of shady deals with MLM companies, things like Trump University, putting his name on apartments and condos in order to attract investors and then pulling out leaving them holding the bag, and finally getting in over his head when Apprentice checks stopped rolling in. All things we have known for years, but now with solid numbers to back them up.
Good god, it’s like those articles about people winning the lottery and losing everything because they opened a dozen restaurants or suddenly decided they were investment geniuses, only Trump has won the lottery multiple times and is still about to lose everything because he’s just that stupid.
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As others have said, until Biden is sworn in at noon on January 20th, there's still plenty of chance for it to go wrong.
The polling news isn't bleak, but it shouldn't be seen as a reason for complacency, and it most definitely shouldn't be seen as a reason to take the foot off the gas.
The more Biden wins by (assuming he wins), the better. Limping across the finish is just a bandaid. This isn't just about removing Trump. This is about making sure it doesn't happen again.
Winning with 271 EC is a win (if uncontested). Winning with 350+ is a repudiation, and the US needs that if it wants to rebuild it's standing in the world. If the rest of the world see a squeaker and that Trump, or someone worse (ie, similarly vile, but more competent) may be back in 4, 8, 12, 20 years, then why trust America long term?
Don't need to do all that. All they really need is a bullshit indictment. It'll disillusion some reluctant Biden voters who will then sit this one out as a form of "protest" or vote third party to fellate their ego by voting their conscience.
Also Trump sees the actual dictators that he idolizes arrest political opponents so he'll want to prove he's a big deal and do the same.
EDIT: for real I think it's very unlikely Biden the elder gets indicted. Trump and/or Barr would be absolutely crazy to try it. Unfortunately that means it's not totally crazy to think it could happen.
This one goes into detail about how he was about to crash and burn but then The Apprentice saved his ass, whereupon he took the money he made from that and bought a bunch of buildings and golf courses that have hemorrhaged money ever since. Also got into a lot of shady deals with MLM companies, things like Trump University, putting his name on apartments and condos in order to attract investors and then pulling out leaving them holding the bag, and finally getting in over his head when Apprentice checks stopped rolling in. All things we have known for years, but now with solid numbers to back them up.
Basically all the recent (~2 weeks or so) put Biden between 48-55 and Trump 40-45 in PA. It's averaging out to Biden ~+5.5, and he is consistently either at 50% or so close it would require a substantial systematic polling error to fall short of it. Except for one weird Trafalgar outlier, the same thing can be said of MI and almost of WI (where Trump is at 46 in a few).
That doesn't mean we know how this will turn out, but it gives us a really good pre-debate state of the race I think
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Death by a thousand cuts finally pushing folks to say that enough is enough
Also Biden’s been good in coverage lately. It’s him with snappy remarks and pushing on Trump Which could be countering any of the “Biden’s lost it!” Narrative that sunk in a bit
The scotus stuff could be waking people up too. Most folks like a check on power so seeing another pick go hard right might have moderates a bit concerned
A month and change left. Let’s finish this off!
Good god, it’s like those articles about people winning the lottery and losing everything because they opened a dozen restaurants or suddenly decided they were investment geniuses, only Trump has won the lottery multiple times and is still about to lose everything because he’s just that stupid.
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