On the subject of immunity, we know that COVID-19 isn't going to have permanent immunity and that, while many trials have shown lasting immunity over 3-9 months, it's probably unlikely that any vaccine will last longer than that due to the widespread nature of the illness and its ability to mutate. Most research suggests that COVID immunity will come in the form of seasonal vaccines for a few years until the population infected drops low enough that it no longer has major flareups.
Mid-2021 will have a bunch of properly trialed vaccines readily available. Probably mid-2023 we'll see the virus mostly gone and life going back to the beforetimes. But we have a bit before we can get to that stage.
tblox brought this up a bit already, but there's a lot of assumptions here in this post that aren't really accurate (probably based on what we know so far, at least).
There are trials that show active antibodies or something similar don't persist past x months often, but that doesn't mean you aren't still immune. Your body generally remembers what diseases look like so they can just produce more antibodies when needed later, they don't always have them pumping out. Covid's ability to mutate thusfar hasn't actually looked super impressive. There are... two main strains? And both have been around for almost the entire pandemic with little changes in them.
It's possible my knowledge of the above is out-of-date, since we are still learning about everything here, but I don't think what you said is right.
The SOLIDARITY study was done to determine whether certain drugs could reduce in-hospital mortality on COVID-19 patients, but this is what we already knew about remdesivir from the prior study. The SOLIDARITY study didn't see an appreciable reduction in the hospital duration, but it also wasn't designed to test this hypothesis. The previous study never claimed that remdesivir reduced mortality (it was statistically similar), and that its main benefit was a small, but significant, reduction in total hospital time spent in recovery.
The SOLIDARITY study was done to determine whether certain drugs could reduce in-hospital mortality on COVID-19 patients, but this is what we already knew about remdesivir from the prior study. The SOLIDARITY study didn't see an appreciable reduction in the hospital duration, but it also wasn't designed to test this hypothesis. The previous study never claimed that remdesivir reduced mortality (it was statistically similar), and that its main benefit was a small, but significant, reduction in total hospital time spent in recovery.
Indeed, there are statistically superior trials which show it does reduce hospitalization time.
"That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
edited October 2020
Remdesivir may be very effective in treating COVID-19 - Or more accurately, Remdesivir may be highly effective in blocking the replication of SARS-CoV-2.
The problem is, when people are in the hospital, on oxygen, or in the ICU (All the populations that Remdesivir has been tested in, and is typically reserved for), you're not so much fighting the virus any longer. You're fighting the damage it's done to the body, and the damage the body has done to itself. If Remdesivir is to be effective to treat COVID-19, people need to be dosed much sooner than requiring hospitalization (This is pretty standard antiviral knowledge). The idea would be to halt the viral replication before the damage can be done, and before the potential bradykinin storm REALLY messes up the body.
That means Remdesivir is useless in its current state. It's an IV drug that has to be administered multiple times across multiple days. You can't make that into a drug for people who aren't already in the hospital.
I hate to say it, but I wouldn't pin any hopes on Remdesivir.
On the subject of immunity, we know that COVID-19 isn't going to have permanent immunity and that, while many trials have shown lasting immunity over 3-9 months, it's probably unlikely that any vaccine will last longer than that due to the widespread nature of the illness and its ability to mutate. Most research suggests that COVID immunity will come in the form of seasonal vaccines for a few years until the population infected drops low enough that it no longer has major flareups.
Mid-2021 will have a bunch of properly trialed vaccines readily available. Probably mid-2023 we'll see the virus mostly gone and life going back to the beforetimes. But we have a bit before we can get to that stage.
tblox brought this up a bit already, but there's a lot of assumptions here in this post that aren't really accurate (probably based on what we know so far, at least).
There are trials that show active antibodies or something similar don't persist past x months often, but that doesn't mean you aren't still immune. Your body generally remembers what diseases look like so they can just produce more antibodies when needed later, they don't always have them pumping out. Covid's ability to mutate thusfar hasn't actually looked super impressive. There are... two main strains? And both have been around for almost the entire pandemic with little changes in them.
It's possible my knowledge of the above is out-of-date, since we are still learning about everything here, but I don't think what you said is right.
I mean, it could be right (although not for quite the reasons detailed) but we don't know enough to know.
"That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
11k new cases in the Czech Republic yesterday.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Slovakia is readying to test everyone in the country, for free, over the next two weekends. Antigen testing, which isn't as accurate but it is faster since the plan is to rapid-fire test everybody to get an idea of how widespread SARS2 is across the entire nation.
Infections can also spread quickly in places like Toole County, where most everyone shops at the same grocery store, attends the same school or worships at a handful of churches.
Yep, it's happened. It took a little longer than some of us expected, but the inevitable happened after an entire side of the national political structure decided to let the pandemic infect them.
Not sure if this has come up before, but if you're in the UK you can see the situation at a very local level (lower than district council, down to a groupings of a couple of villages) here.
You can search by post code and it shows you the current known cases over a 7 day period, the rate/10,000 people and the change from the previous 7 days.
That sucks . What happened over there? Weren't things looking pretty good during the summer.
Overconfidence and fatigue probably, same as everywhere else. We as a species are not able to handle the appropriate response to this virus for an extended period of time it seems.
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
That sucks . What happened over there? Weren't things looking pretty good during the summer.
They were. Things crept up but weren’t too bad for most of the summer. Spikes usually came from the disease getting into a workplace. But eventually the numbers got up there and some combination of cold weather getting people indoors and schools reopening started this current climb.
I’d say the iconic bit of stupidity was not mandating masks on trams and busses until the beginning of September, because August was hot. Just the usual reacting too slow to whatevs happening. Except they should have known better.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
That sucks . What happened over there? Weren't things looking pretty good during the summer.
They were. Things crept up but weren’t too bad for most of the summer. Spikes usually came from the disease getting into a workplace. But eventually the numbers got up there and some combination of cold weather getting people indoors and schools reopening started this current climb.
I’d say the iconic bit of stupidity was not mandating masks on trams and busses until the beginning of September, because August was hot. Just the usual reacting too slow to whatevs happening. Except they should have known better.
Europe seems to be overwhelmingly governments being a bit too lenient with the rules for bars and restaurants, people initially being extra compliant, but becoming overconfident over time, and then the degrading weather sadly colliding with the peak of that leniency and peoples confidence. I also feel that many places in Europe didn't rely on masks in all public places and so there was no back stop in place.
Its not just changing weatther though, the first resurgence of the virus associated with all this was in Spain and Isreal. Not places associated with cold and bad weather!
Governments seem determined to under react and ramp up restrictions, when everywhere has shown us that over reacting and then ramping down restrictions works best for everyone. Also, noone got across the message that we will need to test monitor and respond to this virus until there is a vaccine. National restrictions should never have ended, they should have just evolved into restrictions at a local level with a clear set of criteria for implementing and terminating them.
Bad news: There may be a new strain that is more contagious than the others. (I know similar claims have been made before, but this is apparently a genuinely new strain.)
Badder news for me personally: The strain originates in my town (Trondheim, Norway). And is causing a (so far local) outbreak. We're now at 30 cases/100k over the last 14 days and rising rapidly. (The "safe" boundary is 20/100k.)
Via national public broadcaster NRK (in Norwegian).
It may not be super bad news. if it is adapting to us and our precautions it may also become less virulent... ideally it'd confer at least partial immunity to the more dangerous strains. But, decreasing virulence in a short time span like this is not a given, so... I guess we'll see.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
edited October 2020
Some news updates:
Argentina has now joined that very dubious club that is Countries with Over a Million Cases. As Argentina's positivity rate remains significantly above 50%, this is of course a massive undercount. Beach resorts in particular are getting badly hit and just like in the US, most of the new spread in Argentina is from outlying areas, not the main cities.
Spain will be joining this club within the week unless it, I dunno, tries to pull a Florida and only report updates once a week. Incidentally, Florida's numbers are already two weeks behind, and DeSantis continues to pursue whatever hairbrained schemes he and his cronies come up with to try to make Florida not look like the plaguepit that it is so as to steal the election and squeeze another few bucks out of stupid snowbirds.
Speaking of American stupidity, since there is very little contact tracing even being attempted, no one's really doing genomic analysis in the US either, and a lot of fucking bikers are refusing to even get tested, we really don't know how badly exactly Sturgis screwed over the country. Looking at the numbers from South Dakota, almost certainly "a lot" but as it turns out, the types of shitheels who have sneezing contests during pandemics aren't exactly people who'll work with public health to try to undo the damage they've done. Usually, they just keep making things worse.
MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Spain just entered the Million Cases club. Next up, France and Colombia. That's officially, of course; I'm sure many other countries are way past that by now.
Argentina's positivity rate has fallen below 50%. It's merely in the high 40s now along with Mexico.
There are record cases across Europe, and the United States is rapidly heading back towards 1000+ deaths daily. Several states have seen record deaths over the past few days.
Germany hit 11k daily cases yesterday. the whole country is over 50 cases per week per 100k people. positive test rate is up to 3.4%
honovere on
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
15k new cases in the Czech Republic yesterday. 30% positive rate, so that's an undercount. We've almost gone back to the full lockdown from March. Masks everywhere all the time, shops ordered closed (though not quite as extensive as last time), no groups larger than two, general instructions to stay the hell at home, the usual. Deaths are climbing, but I don't think we've maxed out the hospital system yet, so they're probably in line with whatever the expected fatality rate from this thing is at this point. Rough eyeballing gives 3.5% of active cases are in the hospital. No ICU numbers though. The government is looking to build out additional capacity, but that's a race they're unlikely to win.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
Meanwhile, our governor has repeatedly promised to never do anything about it with the same firmness of purpose as Reagan's Berlin wall speech, and the holidays are coming up and our covid map is rigged so that no county will ever actually turn red until the statewide healthcare system collapses.
This is an interesting series of posts. My province, BC has approximately 5 million people, compared to Okalahoma's 4 million. Look at the case numbers.
Oklahoma's worst day of the pandemic has 4.5 times the cases as ours here in BC.
:so_raven:
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JedocIn the scupperswith the staggers and jagsRegistered Userregular
And the messed up thing is that we've been simmering at this level since the lockdown ended, always just low enough to stay out of the top five spots that the news reports on. Which means that at least five states are doing worse than we are at any given time.
I was up from Texas camping in Broken Bow over the weekend and I was genuinely shocked at how little distancing, masks, etc.. there was. We left early partly because of that.
And I’m up from Texas, so I’ve seen some shitty behavior.
Was watching Shepard smith tonight and I guess the fda just approved a covid treatment, not a cure, not a vaccine, but a treatment.
This is good news right ?
We did a call on that yesterday.
There are no COVID teatments.
There are all kinds of off label or emergency approval drugs but it's all temporary or emergency.
A whole lot of boring FDA stuff and we are doing better, we think? But the best in the world aren't entirely sure why and a lot of it is we are now dealing with 10-15 cases instead of 200.
Flattening the curve worked and never forget that. Probably a hundred thousand lives were saved between CA / NY / MI / WA alone doing lockdowns when we did.
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
Was watching Shepard smith tonight and I guess the fda just approved a covid treatment, not a cure, not a vaccine, but a treatment.
This is good news right ?
The approved COVID treatment is Remdesivir (Now going by trade name Veklury) which has been under emergency approval for a while now. The FDA today gave it full approval.
These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials.
'I don't know what to do anymore': Utah officials share dire words as state sees record 1,543 new COVID-19 cases
Rolling average of 1288/day for the past 7 days.
Most counties are back to "high level transmission" meaning >325/100k infection. Multiple hospitals in the state reported as early as last week that their ICUs were already overflowing, with almost the entirety of the rest saying this week or the next they will be there too; many are already trying to figure out plans to open ICU satellites in other facilities that don't have ICUs.
The thing is, other than the actual numbers, virtually every level of government is making decisions that are counterintuitive. Provo just repealed their mask mandate, the state doesn't seem likely to implement any sort of mandate, and continually is fighting Salt Lake City and Salt Lake County over the mandates they keep trying to enforce. School districts are seeing increases in student infections but are lessening the restrictions on how long faculty and students have to quarantine if they've tested positive, and are trying to discuss more "returning to normal" despite the current infection rate being substantially higher than it has ever been in the state.
It is bizarro world, literally. It's spiking so quickly so early in the season that I don't see how we're not the next Florida before Thanksgiving, and people are just going about their lives as if we still only had a dozen cases a day.
Sure, we're not crazy numbers like 10k+ as some places, but we also have a pretty small, and relatively spread out population, so I feel like I'm going crazy caring at all.
I don't think it'll ever stop being jarring seeing other countries report "dire" increases that, relative to the US, and even Utah, would be god damned magical if we were that low.
Or I guess, more specifically, would be god damned magical if our leaders and fellow citizens cared enough for those "low" numbers to feel alarming enough to actually do a fucking thing. :rotate:
Was watching Shepard smith tonight and I guess the fda just approved a covid treatment, not a cure, not a vaccine, but a treatment.
This is good news right ?
The approved COVID treatment is Remdesivir (Now going by trade name Veklury) which has been under emergency approval for a while now. The FDA today gave it full approval.
These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials.
But it'll be enough to juice the manufacturer's numbers, right?
Was this the company that Trump had a personal investment in? Or was that just Hydroxy? I lose track of all his massive conflicts of interest.
Was watching Shepard smith tonight and I guess the fda just approved a covid treatment, not a cure, not a vaccine, but a treatment.
This is good news right ?
The approved COVID treatment is Remdesivir (Now going by trade name Veklury) which has been under emergency approval for a while now. The FDA today gave it full approval.
These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials.
But it'll be enough to juice the manufacturer's numbers, right?
Was this the company that Trump had a personal investment in? Or was that just Hydroxy? I lose track of all his massive conflicts of interest.
Two trials exist.
The one quoted by TetraNitroCubane. A non blinded, non peer reviewed pre-print which failed to demonstrate that any drug had any effect on anything, however, it did (as have other trials) show that remdesivir was 'harmless'
A peer reviewed, double blinded trial which demonstrated that Remdesivir did reduce hospitalization time.
Given the need to make a decision, the FDA has chosen to trust the massively more powerful, massively better controlled study. A lack of blinding and poor control groups routinely can produce positive and negative effects in trials.
North Dakota is seeing 100 new cases per 100k residents per day right now. It's fuckin bananas there right now. South Dakota has the second-fastest spread in the nation right now, at around 80/100k/day. Utah is pretty bad too, at around 40/100k/day.
Was watching Shepard smith tonight and I guess the fda just approved a covid treatment, not a cure, not a vaccine, but a treatment.
This is good news right ?
The approved COVID treatment is Remdesivir (Now going by trade name Veklury) which has been under emergency approval for a while now. The FDA today gave it full approval.
These Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay. The mortality findings contain most of the randomized evidence on Remdesivir and Interferon, and are consistent with meta-analyses of mortality in all major trials.
But it'll be enough to juice the manufacturer's numbers, right?
Was this the company that Trump had a personal investment in? Or was that just Hydroxy? I lose track of all his massive conflicts of interest.
How much you want to bet he starts sending it to CVS with the updated agreement they just touted, so they can declared they got everyone free virus treatment.
There's no plan, there's no race to be run
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
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KetarCome on upstairswe're having a partyRegistered Userregular
My wife is a critical care physician who just finished attending a virtual conference for critical care practitioners. As you might imagine, it was just about entirely about covid.
You're far more confident in that study, and the usefulness of Remdesivir, than any of the speakers who presented. All doctors who've been treating covid on a daily basis since March.
"In September, state-owned SinoPharm revealed that hundreds of thousands of Chinese had already taken its experimental COVID-19 vaccines as part of a state initiative to protect frontline health workers and officials traveling to high-risk nations. In the eastern manufacturing hub of Yiwu this week, hundreds of people queued for a $60 dose of CoronaVac."
China has already dosed hundreds of thousands of people with its experimental vaccines. Which, I suppose is good news in terms of us knowing that vaccines aren't just going to immediately kill those who take them, but noone knows whether this vaccine works or not or if its actually safe long term. Clearly it would be excellent if it did, as its a shelf stable inactivated viral vaccine, where SinoPharm alone expects to produce 610 million doses a year by the end of 2020.
In ridiculous imaginings, China could be vaccinating 2 million people a day by the end of the year if it continues along this path.
My wife is a critical care physician who just finished attending a virtual conference for critical care practitioners. As you might imagine, it was just about entirely about covid.
You're far more confident in that study, and the usefulness of Remdesivir, than any of the speakers who presented. All doctors who've been treating covid on a daily basis since March.
I'm confident in statistics, and double blind placebo controlled trials vs those whice aren't. If forced to choose, I pick the peer reviewed double blind trial over the one which isn't. Simple as that. It's how we make scientific decisions when we have clashing evidence. If all those doctors would like to kick off another double blind placebo controlled trial, then they should go ahead. I'm sure more data will become available over the coming months and help answer remaining questions, but the balance of probability right now is that it will support ACCT-1 rather than Solidarity, because ACCT-1 is more powerful than Solidarity. Perhaps ACCT-1 is wrong, and Solidarity is 'right', thats how statistics works. But you have to make a call, and both trials say Remdesivir does no harm.
My wife does clinical trial design, regulatory compliance and submission, and her opinion of the Solidarity study is that she wouldn't have been able to get it past regulators for treatment of athletes foot, let along Covid-19. So, there we go, we have both appealed to the authority of our wives on the issue.
North Dakota is seeing 100 new cases per 100k residents per day right now. It's fuckin bananas there right now. South Dakota has the second-fastest spread in the nation right now, at around 80/100k/day. Utah is pretty bad too, at around 40/100k/day.
Those numbers are insane.
Here in Europe (I'm in Norway) we measure by cases/100k over the last 14 days. For a country/region to be considered "yellow" (our scale goes from "yellow" to "red", used to be "green" and "red") cases need to be less than 20/100k/14 days (also less than 5% positivity rates on tests).
Assuming the numbers were steady the last 14 days (I know they've been increasing), ND is at 1400/100k/14 days. Worst hit in Europe is at something like 600/100k/14 days.
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tblox brought this up a bit already, but there's a lot of assumptions here in this post that aren't really accurate (probably based on what we know so far, at least).
There are trials that show active antibodies or something similar don't persist past x months often, but that doesn't mean you aren't still immune. Your body generally remembers what diseases look like so they can just produce more antibodies when needed later, they don't always have them pumping out. Covid's ability to mutate thusfar hasn't actually looked super impressive. There are... two main strains? And both have been around for almost the entire pandemic with little changes in them.
It's possible my knowledge of the above is out-of-date, since we are still learning about everything here, but I don't think what you said is right.
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Indeed, there are statistically superior trials which show it does reduce hospitalization time.
The problem is, when people are in the hospital, on oxygen, or in the ICU (All the populations that Remdesivir has been tested in, and is typically reserved for), you're not so much fighting the virus any longer. You're fighting the damage it's done to the body, and the damage the body has done to itself. If Remdesivir is to be effective to treat COVID-19, people need to be dosed much sooner than requiring hospitalization (This is pretty standard antiviral knowledge). The idea would be to halt the viral replication before the damage can be done, and before the potential bradykinin storm REALLY messes up the body.
That means Remdesivir is useless in its current state. It's an IV drug that has to be administered multiple times across multiple days. You can't make that into a drug for people who aren't already in the hospital.
I hate to say it, but I wouldn't pin any hopes on Remdesivir.
I mean, it could be right (although not for quite the reasons detailed) but we don't know enough to know.
Slovakia is readying to test everyone in the country, for free, over the next two weekends. Antigen testing, which isn't as accurate but it is faster since the plan is to rapid-fire test everybody to get an idea of how widespread SARS2 is across the entire nation.
The United States continues to be a dumpster fire with hospitals filling across all those rural states still refusing to wear masks[/url. People had mentioned before here how complacent rural areas would claim that they're all isolated and protected and would be fine, but often have just a single gas station and/or grocery store that everyone goes to.
Yep, it's happened. It took a little longer than some of us expected, but the inevitable happened after an entire side of the national political structure decided to let the pandemic infect them.
You can search by post code and it shows you the current known cases over a 7 day period, the rate/10,000 people and the change from the previous 7 days.
That sucks
Overconfidence and fatigue probably, same as everywhere else. We as a species are not able to handle the appropriate response to this virus for an extended period of time it seems.
They were. Things crept up but weren’t too bad for most of the summer. Spikes usually came from the disease getting into a workplace. But eventually the numbers got up there and some combination of cold weather getting people indoors and schools reopening started this current climb.
I’d say the iconic bit of stupidity was not mandating masks on trams and busses until the beginning of September, because August was hot. Just the usual reacting too slow to whatevs happening. Except they should have known better.
Europe seems to be overwhelmingly governments being a bit too lenient with the rules for bars and restaurants, people initially being extra compliant, but becoming overconfident over time, and then the degrading weather sadly colliding with the peak of that leniency and peoples confidence. I also feel that many places in Europe didn't rely on masks in all public places and so there was no back stop in place.
Its not just changing weatther though, the first resurgence of the virus associated with all this was in Spain and Isreal. Not places associated with cold and bad weather!
Governments seem determined to under react and ramp up restrictions, when everywhere has shown us that over reacting and then ramping down restrictions works best for everyone. Also, noone got across the message that we will need to test monitor and respond to this virus until there is a vaccine. National restrictions should never have ended, they should have just evolved into restrictions at a local level with a clear set of criteria for implementing and terminating them.
Badder news for me personally: The strain originates in my town (Trondheim, Norway). And is causing a (so far local) outbreak. We're now at 30 cases/100k over the last 14 days and rising rapidly. (The "safe" boundary is 20/100k.)
Via national public broadcaster NRK (in Norwegian).
Argentina has now joined that very dubious club that is Countries with Over a Million Cases. As Argentina's positivity rate remains significantly above 50%, this is of course a massive undercount. Beach resorts in particular are getting badly hit and just like in the US, most of the new spread in Argentina is from outlying areas, not the main cities.
Spain will be joining this club within the week unless it, I dunno, tries to pull a Florida and only report updates once a week. Incidentally, Florida's numbers are already two weeks behind, and DeSantis continues to pursue whatever hairbrained schemes he and his cronies come up with to try to make Florida not look like the plaguepit that it is so as to steal the election and squeeze another few bucks out of stupid snowbirds.
Speaking of American stupidity, since there is very little contact tracing even being attempted, no one's really doing genomic analysis in the US either, and a lot of fucking bikers are refusing to even get tested, we really don't know how badly exactly Sturgis screwed over the country. Looking at the numbers from South Dakota, almost certainly "a lot" but as it turns out, the types of shitheels who have sneezing contests during pandemics aren't exactly people who'll work with public health to try to undo the damage they've done. Usually, they just keep making things worse.
Argentina's positivity rate has fallen below 50%. It's merely in the high 40s now along with Mexico.
There are record cases across Europe, and the United States is rapidly heading back towards 1000+ deaths daily. Several states have seen record deaths over the past few days.
Ya Thanksgiving was a gong show in BC. So much traffic, this wave was completely predictable
Yes, but who could have predicted it?
:rotate:
thatescalatedquickly.gif
Meanwhile, our governor has repeatedly promised to never do anything about it with the same firmness of purpose as Reagan's Berlin wall speech, and the holidays are coming up and our covid map is rigged so that no county will ever actually turn red until the statewide healthcare system collapses.
Oklahoma State Department of Health Map:
Anyway, everything's fucked, the bars and restaurants are still open, nobody in charge is trying to help us, welcome to Okla-goddamn-homa.
This is an interesting series of posts. My province, BC has approximately 5 million people, compared to Okalahoma's 4 million. Look at the case numbers.
Oklahoma's worst day of the pandemic has 4.5 times the cases as ours here in BC.
And I’m up from Texas, so I’ve seen some shitty behavior.
This is good news right ?
We did a call on that yesterday.
There are no COVID teatments.
There are all kinds of off label or emergency approval drugs but it's all temporary or emergency.
A whole lot of boring FDA stuff and we are doing better, we think? But the best in the world aren't entirely sure why and a lot of it is we are now dealing with 10-15 cases instead of 200.
Flattening the curve worked and never forget that. Probably a hundred thousand lives were saved between CA / NY / MI / WA alone doing lockdowns when we did.
The approved COVID treatment is Remdesivir (Now going by trade name Veklury) which has been under emergency approval for a while now. The FDA today gave it full approval.
This is the same Remdesivir that the WHO declared functionally useless for treating COVID last week. Yes, even with regard to duration of hospitalization.
The headline of that article is:
Rolling average of 1288/day for the past 7 days.
Most counties are back to "high level transmission" meaning >325/100k infection. Multiple hospitals in the state reported as early as last week that their ICUs were already overflowing, with almost the entirety of the rest saying this week or the next they will be there too; many are already trying to figure out plans to open ICU satellites in other facilities that don't have ICUs.
The thing is, other than the actual numbers, virtually every level of government is making decisions that are counterintuitive. Provo just repealed their mask mandate, the state doesn't seem likely to implement any sort of mandate, and continually is fighting Salt Lake City and Salt Lake County over the mandates they keep trying to enforce. School districts are seeing increases in student infections but are lessening the restrictions on how long faculty and students have to quarantine if they've tested positive, and are trying to discuss more "returning to normal" despite the current infection rate being substantially higher than it has ever been in the state.
It is bizarro world, literally. It's spiking so quickly so early in the season that I don't see how we're not the next Florida before Thanksgiving, and people are just going about their lives as if we still only had a dozen cases a day.
Sure, we're not crazy numbers like 10k+ as some places, but we also have a pretty small, and relatively spread out population, so I feel like I'm going crazy caring at all.
I don't think it'll ever stop being jarring seeing other countries report "dire" increases that, relative to the US, and even Utah, would be god damned magical if we were that low.
Or I guess, more specifically, would be god damned magical if our leaders and fellow citizens cared enough for those "low" numbers to feel alarming enough to actually do a fucking thing. :rotate:
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But it'll be enough to juice the manufacturer's numbers, right?
Was this the company that Trump had a personal investment in? Or was that just Hydroxy? I lose track of all his massive conflicts of interest.
Two trials exist.
The one quoted by TetraNitroCubane. A non blinded, non peer reviewed pre-print which failed to demonstrate that any drug had any effect on anything, however, it did (as have other trials) show that remdesivir was 'harmless'
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1.full-text
"This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice."
And this one
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764
A peer reviewed, double blinded trial which demonstrated that Remdesivir did reduce hospitalization time.
Given the need to make a decision, the FDA has chosen to trust the massively more powerful, massively better controlled study. A lack of blinding and poor control groups routinely can produce positive and negative effects in trials.
How much you want to bet he starts sending it to CVS with the updated agreement they just touted, so they can declared they got everyone free virus treatment.
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
You're far more confident in that study, and the usefulness of Remdesivir, than any of the speakers who presented. All doctors who've been treating covid on a daily basis since March.
https://time.com/5902646/china-covid-19-vaccine/
"In September, state-owned SinoPharm revealed that hundreds of thousands of Chinese had already taken its experimental COVID-19 vaccines as part of a state initiative to protect frontline health workers and officials traveling to high-risk nations. In the eastern manufacturing hub of Yiwu this week, hundreds of people queued for a $60 dose of CoronaVac."
China has already dosed hundreds of thousands of people with its experimental vaccines. Which, I suppose is good news in terms of us knowing that vaccines aren't just going to immediately kill those who take them, but noone knows whether this vaccine works or not or if its actually safe long term. Clearly it would be excellent if it did, as its a shelf stable inactivated viral vaccine, where SinoPharm alone expects to produce 610 million doses a year by the end of 2020.
In ridiculous imaginings, China could be vaccinating 2 million people a day by the end of the year if it continues along this path.
I'm confident in statistics, and double blind placebo controlled trials vs those whice aren't. If forced to choose, I pick the peer reviewed double blind trial over the one which isn't. Simple as that. It's how we make scientific decisions when we have clashing evidence. If all those doctors would like to kick off another double blind placebo controlled trial, then they should go ahead. I'm sure more data will become available over the coming months and help answer remaining questions, but the balance of probability right now is that it will support ACCT-1 rather than Solidarity, because ACCT-1 is more powerful than Solidarity. Perhaps ACCT-1 is wrong, and Solidarity is 'right', thats how statistics works. But you have to make a call, and both trials say Remdesivir does no harm.
My wife does clinical trial design, regulatory compliance and submission, and her opinion of the Solidarity study is that she wouldn't have been able to get it past regulators for treatment of athletes foot, let along Covid-19. So, there we go, we have both appealed to the authority of our wives on the issue.
Those numbers are insane.
Here in Europe (I'm in Norway) we measure by cases/100k over the last 14 days. For a country/region to be considered "yellow" (our scale goes from "yellow" to "red", used to be "green" and "red") cases need to be less than 20/100k/14 days (also less than 5% positivity rates on tests).
Assuming the numbers were steady the last 14 days (I know they've been increasing), ND is at 1400/100k/14 days. Worst hit in Europe is at something like 600/100k/14 days.