Has anyone looked out whether there have been any trends with AZ mail in ballots. I want to say, in other places, there is a common trend where the ones received earliest trend more on the conservative side, while the stuff that arrives at the end tends to trend liberal. I don't know how AZ does their stuff, but if they seem a similar thing, then it seems pretty unlikely for Trump to get enough votes; especially, if he can't hit the margin he needs with stuff that is suppose to be more favorable to him.
so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?
please?
I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter
No. I think both might flip tonight, but both also have additional votes to count tomorrow before being called. I'd get some sleep.
I've been trying
my body is exhausted but my brain is already refreshing some page or another
so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?
please?
I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter
Initial vote counts - probably. However unless either Biden or Trump overwhelmingly clear this final 1%, a recount is going to happen. I imagine the same will happen with PA unless - again - Trump or Biden overwhelmingly clear these last vote counts.
Has anyone looked out whether there have been any trends with AZ mail in ballots. I want to say, in other places, there is a common trend where the ones received earliest trend more on the conservative side, while the stuff that arrives at the end tends to trend liberal. I don't know how AZ does their stuff, but if they seem a similar thing, then it seems pretty unlikely for Trump to get enough votes; especially, if he can't hit the margin he needs with stuff that is suppose to be more favorable to him.
It sounds like AZ was pretty familiar with their mail ballot system, so they're not skewed blue like in other states where Trump scared Republicans away from them.
Has anyone looked out whether there have been any trends with AZ mail in ballots. I want to say, in other places, there is a common trend where the ones received earliest trend more on the conservative side, while the stuff that arrives at the end tends to trend liberal. I don't know how AZ does their stuff, but if they seem a similar thing, then it seems pretty unlikely for Trump to get enough votes; especially, if he can't hit the margin he needs with stuff that is suppose to be more favorable to him.
Nate silver shared this tweet today. No idea if it’s accurate but it would suggest today’s dumps were favorable to trump and the rest won’t be quite so much
so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?
please?
I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter
Get some sleep. You can't change anything now and obsessing over this might literally kill you.
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Has anyone looked out whether there have been any trends with AZ mail in ballots. I want to say, in other places, there is a common trend where the ones received earliest trend more on the conservative side, while the stuff that arrives at the end tends to trend liberal. I don't know how AZ does their stuff, but if they seem a similar thing, then it seems pretty unlikely for Trump to get enough votes; especially, if he can't hit the margin he needs with stuff that is suppose to be more favorable to him.
AZ votes 85% by mail in a normal election so there aren't those kinds of trends to see i don't think
so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?
please?
I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter
no and probably not
Yup, this. Go to sleep, Xaquin. (And anyone else waiting up. Especially you, Jayson.)
I don't drink, so I dealt with my feelings in a healthy way.
Right after I voted Tuesday I bought a tub of "Frozen Hot Chocolate" ice cream that Wal-Mart has as a seasonal thing, and a box of Hostess cupcakes, and a box of Totino's Pizzas, and those things are now all gone. Mostly in the first night when I was worried, which is also when I had to pop a hydroxizine.
Couldn't sleep yesterday, but that was like 70% because I saw a big roach in here earlier in the night. Stupid old poorly sealed house in a county with a completely insane population of big roaches all eager to go inside if it gets a bit nippy.
The rest of the ballots in Nevada are supposed to be Biden friendly, so it sounds like it could be called but nobody wants to do it early and be proven wrong.
so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?
please?
I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter
no and probably not
Yup, this. Go to sleep, Xaquin. (And anyone else waiting up. Especially you, Jayson.)
My wife’s friend, here in Abilene TX, just got this in her mailbox
I don't even know what this is supposed to accomplish once the election is over. Even if they plan on following through, this only gives her time to prepare in some way. This is what I'm afraid of though. Trump has a lot of clout with the alt-right even if he loses the election. There's too many dumb trump supporters with guns out there, and many of them are my neighbors.
We have more guns than our neighbors. The Right wants to start a civil war I think they're going to have some surprises about how soft a target some people are. Personally I'm skeptical that they're organized enough for that though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?
please?
I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter
no and probably not
Yup, this. Go to sleep, Xaquin. (And anyone else waiting up. Especially you, Jayson.)
The rest of the ballots in Nevada are supposed to be Biden friendly, so it sounds like it could be called but nobody wants to do it early and be proven wrong.
I legit think Fox/AP calling AZ is preventing anyone from calling anything now
Not for fear of being wrong but be wise it’s force those two to also call or look weird and if they call then they are saying Biden won but with AZ still not solid
so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?
please?
I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter
I sort of "slept" Tuesday night, but I woke up every 45 minutes because I was having some variation of a dream where I woke up and checked CNN on my iPad only to see Trump's shitting eating grin with a "Trump Wins" headline. Thankfully things haven taken a turn for the much better since Tuesday night, which looked really bad when I finally went to bed.
So is this one of the closest elections in history or does it just feel like it?
Edit and I means the margins in the states for electoral votes. I know how the popular vote is going
I edited my post to more reflect what I was talking about. The popular vote is in the bag, but the state by state margins that determine the ec are extremely close. And I think their the smallest margins, at least in my life time. This is different than 2000, there are multiple states you could contest that have a 10k margin. This is sickening close. And I think the closest in my life time (born 81)
I don't know that this will end up being the case, but it also kind of depends on how you count. I think the best recent election to compare it to is 2016. Biden is on track for 306, so the 2020 EC tally will quite possibly the exact inverse of 2016, and victory margins in the swing states will look very similar. Biden's going to win the popular vote by a larger margin than Clinton did, though.
so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?
please?
I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter
no and probably not
Yup, this. Go to sleep, Xaquin. (And anyone else waiting up. Especially you, Jayson.)
Things like that mailbox note and the voting protest that went on last night with a bunch of white nationalists and fascists showing up with guns are how I hope the other side gets remembered by everyone once this is over. Surely that should be enough to start more Trump regrets sentiment and if not it sure as hell fucking should be.
The Putin stuff isn't in the credible media (just the NY Post and Daily Mail), but there's has been a big push in Russia over the last week for immunity for former presidents that did make the legit news. Take it with a grain of salt, but...
The rest of the ballots in Nevada are supposed to be Biden friendly, so it sounds like it could be called but nobody wants to do it early and be proven wrong.
Nobody wants to call Nevada because AP and Fox called Arizona and that calls the race. Arizona is likely going to stay our way, but it's too close to be comfortable calling the whole thing without either Georgia or Pennsylvania being called and all effectively made redundant. Nobody wants to Dewey Defeats Truman this. So it's call together or don't call at all.
Given that Putin is the only living russian President (because the position didn't exist until he created it to get around term limits), that is a very suspicious thing to be doing.
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Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
CBS is a major news outlet.
I've been trying
my body is exhausted but my brain is already refreshing some page or another
i mean if you weren't a consistent voter before this election and you finally decide it's time to have your voice heard, and then you lose
that demoralizes voters. a non-zero subset of them will say it's all bullshit and voting doesn't matter and not come back out again
Initial vote counts - probably. However unless either Biden or Trump overwhelmingly clear this final 1%, a recount is going to happen. I imagine the same will happen with PA unless - again - Trump or Biden overwhelmingly clear these last vote counts.
they "have" learned.
i have learned that the sky is blue most days, and that water is wet.
She needs to hand that off to the FBI. Bag it up, don't touch it anymore than she already has.
https://www.fbi.gov/tips
It sounds like AZ was pretty familiar with their mail ballot system, so they're not skewed blue like in other states where Trump scared Republicans away from them.
Nate silver shared this tweet today. No idea if it’s accurate but it would suggest today’s dumps were favorable to trump and the rest won’t be quite so much
Fingers crossed
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1324217105433030656
Edit: here’s nates tweet since this guy has no check mark so we personally have no reason to believe him
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324219729595289601?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1324219729595289601|twgr^share_3&ref_url=https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/238225/2020-election-math-is-dead/p73
Get some sleep. You can't change anything now and obsessing over this might literally kill you.
AZ votes 85% by mail in a normal election so there aren't those kinds of trends to see i don't think
"The Gang Stops Fascism."
Yup, this. Go to sleep, Xaquin. (And anyone else waiting up. Especially you, Jayson.)
(the 12th, seriously?)
Right after I voted Tuesday I bought a tub of "Frozen Hot Chocolate" ice cream that Wal-Mart has as a seasonal thing, and a box of Hostess cupcakes, and a box of Totino's Pizzas, and those things are now all gone. Mostly in the first night when I was worried, which is also when I had to pop a hydroxizine.
Couldn't sleep yesterday, but that was like 70% because I saw a big roach in here earlier in the night. Stupid old poorly sealed house in a county with a completely insane population of big roaches all eager to go inside if it gets a bit nippy.
yeah
a few seconds ago I tried to type a message on my wallet
We have more guns than our neighbors. The Right wants to start a civil war I think they're going to have some surprises about how soft a target some people are. Personally I'm skeptical that they're organized enough for that though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Agreed. Staying awake won't change any outcomes, other than your health.
I legit think Fox/AP calling AZ is preventing anyone from calling anything now
Not for fear of being wrong but be wise it’s force those two to also call or look weird and if they call then they are saying Biden won but with AZ still not solid
Yeah fucking right
Edit - Had one too many zeros cause I'm dumb.
wouldn't be the first time
No, actually, apparently. It looks like he has Parkinson's?
What
I sort of "slept" Tuesday night, but I woke up every 45 minutes because I was having some variation of a dream where I woke up and checked CNN on my iPad only to see Trump's shitting eating grin with a "Trump Wins" headline. Thankfully things haven taken a turn for the much better since Tuesday night, which looked really bad when I finally went to bed.
I don't know that this will end up being the case, but it also kind of depends on how you count. I think the best recent election to compare it to is 2016. Biden is on track for 306, so the 2020 EC tally will quite possibly the exact inverse of 2016, and victory margins in the swing states will look very similar. Biden's going to win the popular vote by a larger margin than Clinton did, though.
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
*35k
Is it android or iOS?
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Like, way to go 2020. If you gave me a million chances I wouldn’t have been able to come up with this in a ”what happens next” prediction.
Edit: Also it's prob off topic.
Yeah definitely typoed that. Whoops.
Nobody wants to call Nevada because AP and Fox called Arizona and that calls the race. Arizona is likely going to stay our way, but it's too close to be comfortable calling the whole thing without either Georgia or Pennsylvania being called and all effectively made redundant. Nobody wants to Dewey Defeats Truman this. So it's call together or don't call at all.
Source: Daily Mail is sometimes guilty of doing news