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[2020 Election] Math is Dead

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Posts

  • MillMill Registered User regular
    Has anyone looked out whether there have been any trends with AZ mail in ballots. I want to say, in other places, there is a common trend where the ones received earliest trend more on the conservative side, while the stuff that arrives at the end tends to trend liberal. I don't know how AZ does their stuff, but if they seem a similar thing, then it seems pretty unlikely for Trump to get enough votes; especially, if he can't hit the margin he needs with stuff that is suppose to be more favorable to him.

  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    To absolutely no one's surprise:


    CBS News has learned that President Trump does not plan to concede even if Joe Biden declares victory in the coming days

    CBS is a major news outlet.

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  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?

    please?

    I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter

    No. I think both might flip tonight, but both also have additional votes to count tomorrow before being called. I'd get some sleep.

    I've been trying

    my body is exhausted but my brain is already refreshing some page or another

  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    it will be interesting to see what turnout looks like going forward for Republicans Trump pulled out of the unlikely voter category only to lose

    You mean racists and fascists? I think they will keep demanding racist, fascist candidates.

    i mean if you weren't a consistent voter before this election and you finally decide it's time to have your voice heard, and then you lose

    that demoralizes voters. a non-zero subset of them will say it's all bullshit and voting doesn't matter and not come back out again

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
    VanguardmonikerCelestialBadger
  • ED!ED! Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?

    please?

    I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter

    Initial vote counts - probably. However unless either Biden or Trump overwhelmingly clear this final 1%, a recount is going to happen. I imagine the same will happen with PA unless - again - Trump or Biden overwhelmingly clear these last vote counts.

    "Get the hell out of me" - [ex]girlfriend
    moniker
  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    To absolutely no one's surprise:


    CBS News has learned that President Trump does not plan to concede even if Joe Biden declares victory in the coming days

    CBS is a major news outlet.

    they "have" learned.

    i have learned that the sky is blue most days, and that water is wet.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
    CantideRickRudeToxDoctor Detroit
  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Blight on Discourse Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    .
    My wife’s friend, here in Abilene TX, just got this in her mailbox

    8zd4e5mmjrfq.jpeg

    She needs to hand that off to the FBI. Bag it up, don't touch it anymore than she already has.

    https://www.fbi.gov/tips

    SleepRaijuBlackDragon480Commander ZoomIncenjucarAimmonikerJaysonFourGnomeTankhtmRehabStabbity StylemarajiFiendishrabbitKetBraA Kobold's KoboldTicaldfjamMan in the Mistsemp123MillAbsoluteZeroArdolKoopahTroopah
  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    Has anyone looked out whether there have been any trends with AZ mail in ballots. I want to say, in other places, there is a common trend where the ones received earliest trend more on the conservative side, while the stuff that arrives at the end tends to trend liberal. I don't know how AZ does their stuff, but if they seem a similar thing, then it seems pretty unlikely for Trump to get enough votes; especially, if he can't hit the margin he needs with stuff that is suppose to be more favorable to him.

    It sounds like AZ was pretty familiar with their mail ballot system, so they're not skewed blue like in other states where Trump scared Republicans away from them.

  • DisrupterDisrupter Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Mill wrote: »
    Has anyone looked out whether there have been any trends with AZ mail in ballots. I want to say, in other places, there is a common trend where the ones received earliest trend more on the conservative side, while the stuff that arrives at the end tends to trend liberal. I don't know how AZ does their stuff, but if they seem a similar thing, then it seems pretty unlikely for Trump to get enough votes; especially, if he can't hit the margin he needs with stuff that is suppose to be more favorable to him.


    Nate silver shared this tweet today. No idea if it’s accurate but it would suggest today’s dumps were favorable to trump and the rest won’t be quite so much

    Fingers crossed

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1324217105433030656

    Edit: here’s nates tweet since this guy has no check mark so we personally have no reason to believe him

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324219729595289601?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1324219729595289601|twgr^share_3&ref_url=https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/238225/2020-election-math-is-dead/p73

    Disrupter on
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  • SoggybiscuitSoggybiscuit 4.5 MV of POWER! Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?

    please?

    I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter

    Get some sleep. You can't change anything now and obsessing over this might literally kill you.

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  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    Mill wrote: »
    Has anyone looked out whether there have been any trends with AZ mail in ballots. I want to say, in other places, there is a common trend where the ones received earliest trend more on the conservative side, while the stuff that arrives at the end tends to trend liberal. I don't know how AZ does their stuff, but if they seem a similar thing, then it seems pretty unlikely for Trump to get enough votes; especially, if he can't hit the margin he needs with stuff that is suppose to be more favorable to him.

    AZ votes 85% by mail in a normal election so there aren't those kinds of trends to see i don't think

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
  • wobblyheadedbobwobblyheadedbob Registered User regular
    htm wrote: »
    From Jessy Han, who's some sort of professional politics nerd:


    "The Gang Stops Fascism."

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?

    please?

    I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter

    no and probably not

    Yup, this. Go to sleep, Xaquin. (And anyone else waiting up. Especially you, Jayson.)

    is nevada still on namek?

    (the 12th, seriously?)

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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    PA's recount margin is 0.5%, which is ~32,500 votes depending on the final totals. It's possible that we break that line depending on how things go.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
    monikerspool32
  • KamarKamar Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    I don't drink, so I dealt with my feelings in a healthy way.

    Right after I voted Tuesday I bought a tub of "Frozen Hot Chocolate" ice cream that Wal-Mart has as a seasonal thing, and a box of Hostess cupcakes, and a box of Totino's Pizzas, and those things are now all gone. Mostly in the first night when I was worried, which is also when I had to pop a hydroxizine.

    Couldn't sleep yesterday, but that was like 70% because I saw a big roach in here earlier in the night. Stupid old poorly sealed house in a county with a completely insane population of big roaches all eager to go inside if it gets a bit nippy.

    Kamar on
    CelestialBadgerKlytus
  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    The rest of the ballots in Nevada are supposed to be Biden friendly, so it sounds like it could be called but nobody wants to do it early and be proven wrong.

    PreacherRaiju
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?

    please?

    I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter

    no and probably not

    Yup, this. Go to sleep, Xaquin. (And anyone else waiting up. Especially you, Jayson.)

    is nevada still on namek?

    (the 12th, seriously?)

    yeah

    a few seconds ago I tried to type a message on my wallet

    spool32Linespider5KoopahTroopahKayne Red Robe
  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Blight on Discourse Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    Taranis wrote: »
    My wife’s friend, here in Abilene TX, just got this in her mailbox

    8zd4e5mmjrfq.jpeg

    I don't even know what this is supposed to accomplish once the election is over. Even if they plan on following through, this only gives her time to prepare in some way. This is what I'm afraid of though. Trump has a lot of clout with the alt-right even if he loses the election. There's too many dumb trump supporters with guns out there, and many of them are my neighbors.

    We have more guns than our neighbors. The Right wants to start a civil war I think they're going to have some surprises about how soft a target some people are. Personally I'm skeptical that they're organized enough for that though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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  • TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

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  • southwicksouthwick Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?

    please?

    I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter

    no and probably not

    Yup, this. Go to sleep, Xaquin. (And anyone else waiting up. Especially you, Jayson.)

    is nevada still on namek?

    (the 12th, seriously?)

    Agreed. Staying awake won't change any outcomes, other than your health.

  • DisrupterDisrupter Registered User regular
    The rest of the ballots in Nevada are supposed to be Biden friendly, so it sounds like it could be called but nobody wants to do it early and be proven wrong.

    I legit think Fox/AP calling AZ is preventing anyone from calling anything now

    Not for fear of being wrong but be wise it’s force those two to also call or look weird and if they call then they are saying Biden won but with AZ still not solid

    616610-1.png
    Knight_PreacherCommander Zoom
  • Local H JayLocal H Jay Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

    Yeah fucking right

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  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Other thing to note about PA for anyone still on the fence - none of this includes the 30k they had to set aside due to court order.

    Edit - Had one too many zeros cause I'm dumb.

    Mvrck on
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  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

    Yeah fucking right

    wouldn't be the first time

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
    monikerDoodmannTicaldfjam
  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

    Yeah fucking right

    No, actually, apparently. It looks like he has Parkinson's?

    TetraNitroCubane on
    VuIBhrs.png
    Carson VendettaSmrtnik
  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

    What

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  • GnomeTankGnomeTank Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?

    please?

    I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter

    I sort of "slept" Tuesday night, but I woke up every 45 minutes because I was having some variation of a dream where I woke up and checked CNN on my iPad only to see Trump's shitting eating grin with a "Trump Wins" headline. Thankfully things haven taken a turn for the much better since Tuesday night, which looked really bad when I finally went to bed.

    Sagroth wrote: »
    Oh c'mon FyreWulff, no one's gonna pay to visit Uranus.
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    Xaquin
  • htmhtm Registered User regular
    RickRude wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    So is this one of the closest elections in history or does it just feel like it?


    It just feels like it. It’s not really particularly close
    RickRude wrote: »
    So is this one of the closest elections in history or does it just feel like it?

    Edit and I means the margins in the states for electoral votes. I know how the popular vote is going

    I edited my post to more reflect what I was talking about. The popular vote is in the bag, but the state by state margins that determine the ec are extremely close. And I think their the smallest margins, at least in my life time. This is different than 2000, there are multiple states you could contest that have a 10k margin. This is sickening close. And I think the closest in my life time (born 81)

    I don't know that this will end up being the case, but it also kind of depends on how you count. I think the best recent election to compare it to is 2016. Biden is on track for 306, so the 2020 EC tally will quite possibly the exact inverse of 2016, and victory margins in the swing states will look very similar. Biden's going to win the popular vote by a larger margin than Clinton did, though.

  • EddyEddy Gengar the Bittersweet Registered User regular
    He announced that once with Medvedev and that charade didn't last long

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  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Other thing to note about PA for anyone still on the fence - none of this includes the 300k they had to set aside due to court order.

    *35k

    aeNqQM9.jpg
  • BlackDragon480BlackDragon480 Bluster Kerfuffle Master of Windy ImportRegistered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    so we're supposed to know PA and/or GA tonight right?

    please?

    I haven't slept since Tuesday before voting started and I've got heartburn from I guess subsisting off of mostly coffee and ritz crackers smeared with peanut butter

    no and probably not

    Yup, this. Go to sleep, Xaquin. (And anyone else waiting up. Especially you, Jayson.)

    is nevada still on namek?

    (the 12th, seriously?)

    yeah

    a few seconds ago I tried to type a message on my wallet

    Is it android or iOS?

    First they came for the Muslims and we said...NOT TODAY MOTHERFUCKERS!
    htm
  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    i was gonna say hey guys putin doesn't have much to do with the election but

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
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  • RehabRehab Registered User regular
    Things like that mailbox note and the voting protest that went on last night with a bunch of white nationalists and fascists showing up with guns are how I hope the other side gets remembered by everyone once this is over. Surely that should be enough to start more Trump regrets sentiment and if not it sure as hell fucking should be.

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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

    Yeah fucking right

    No, actually, apparently. It looks like he has Parkinson's?

    Like, way to go 2020. If you gave me a million chances I wouldn’t have been able to come up with this in a ”what happens next” prediction.

    Commander ZoomIncenjucarjmcdonaldFleur de AlysXaquinshryke
  • NobeardNobeard North Carolina: Failed StateRegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Reeeeeeeally gonna need to include so good sources if you intend to post that Putin is stepping down.

    Edit: Also it's prob off topic.

    Nobeard on
    I'm not saying we are going to have an autocratic dystopia, but things keep happening that look like they come from an autocratic dystopia.
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  • PhillisherePhillishere Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    The Putin stuff isn't in the credible media (just the NY Post and Daily Mail), but there's has been a big push in Russia over the last week for immunity for former presidents that did make the legit news. Take it with a grain of salt, but...

    Phillishere on
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  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Other thing to note about PA for anyone still on the fence - none of this includes the 300k they had to set aside due to court order.

    *35k

    Yeah definitely typoed that. Whoops.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    The rest of the ballots in Nevada are supposed to be Biden friendly, so it sounds like it could be called but nobody wants to do it early and be proven wrong.

    Nobody wants to call Nevada because AP and Fox called Arizona and that calls the race. Arizona is likely going to stay our way, but it's too close to be comfortable calling the whole thing without either Georgia or Pennsylvania being called and all effectively made redundant. Nobody wants to Dewey Defeats Truman this. So it's call together or don't call at all.

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  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    Given that Putin is the only living russian President (because the position didn't exist until he created it to get around term limits), that is a very suspicious thing to be doing.

This discussion has been closed.