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[2020 Election] Math is Dead

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Posts

  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    moniker wrote: »
    The rest of the ballots in Nevada are supposed to be Biden friendly, so it sounds like it could be called but nobody wants to do it early and be proven wrong.

    Nobody wants to call Nevada because AP and Fox called Arizona and that calls the race. Arizona is likely going to stay our way, but it's too close to be comfortable calling the whole thing without either Georgia or Pennsylvania being called and all effectively made redundant. Nobody wants to Dewey Defeats Truman this. So it's call together or don't call at all.

    And considering how much anxiety I was having last night over Arizona, I gotta say I think that's the right call. Please be certain about this.

    Commander Zoom on
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  • ED!ED! Registered User regular
    Rehab wrote: »
    Things like that mailbox note and the voting protest that went on last night with a bunch of white nationalists and fascists showing up with guns are how I hope the other side gets remembered by everyone once this is over. Surely that should be enough to start more Trump regrets sentiment and if not it sure as hell fucking should be.

    Jamming Trump voters into that particularly small bag is why Trump got elected in the first place. This generalization doesn't really explain the increase in Black and Latino voters unless you go with the "they just want to be white" line. It's an easy and convenient label to slap on "the other side" but it just means that in four years you'll have the same polling that relies on the same modeling that couldn't predict how close this election was. . . again.

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  • TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    i was gonna say hey guys putin doesn't have much to do with the election but

    I had the wrong tab open. Sorry everyone.

    But hey, current estimates are PA goes Biden and never looks back around midnight PST.

    Remember remember the 5th of November.


    Nate Silver is a stats nerd.

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  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Other thing to note about PA for anyone still on the fence - none of this includes the 30k they had to set aside due to court order.

    Edit - Had one too many zeros cause I'm dumb.

    i might be wrong but they weren't ordered to set them aside

    the SCOTUS decision about the "late" PA ballots (postmarked on time but arrived after Tuesday) left room for them to be challenged, which is also the only potential case Trump has for challenging the election at this point, so PA decided to set them aside to be safe

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
    Commander Zoom
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Disrupter wrote: »
    Kadoken wrote: »
    Disrupter wrote: »
    I know Bernie people who went full so... take that for what it’s worth

    went full what
    Sorry typo. Full Jo. Libertarian

    Only a couple. Younger, dumber Bernie fans. Went full on libertarian after the primary

    So it wasn’t just pulling from Republicans

    Pretty sure someone who went from Sanders to Jorgensen were not potential Biden voters who were lured away by the siren song of objectivism.

    That's just someone not voting as loudly as they can.

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
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  • wobblyheadedbobwobblyheadedbob Registered User regular
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Other thing to note about PA for anyone still on the fence - none of this includes the 300k they had to set aside due to court order.

    *35k

    Yeah definitely typoed that. Whoops.

    That's a big difference, lol.

    Commander Zoommoniker
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

    Yeah fucking right

    No, actually, apparently. It looks like he has Parkinson's?

    He's pushing a 'lifetime immunity from prosecution for former Presidents' bill through the government. So... actually yeah, maybe. Had to wait this long though, huh.

    moniker on
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  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User regular
    -Loki- wrote: »
    Kruite wrote: »
    Yea,

    Well my boss more or less warned me not to discuss politics in front of anyone in my company; if the owner finds that I voted for Biden he will probably fire me on the spot.

    The more I hear about America the more terrible is sounds.

    If I was sacked for voting in a particular way I’d be on a one way trip to an unfair dismissal payout in Australia.

    You'd get the unemployment here as well, that's being fired 'without cause'. But political affiliation isn't a protected class and as long as they're willing to take the unemployment penalty, most states let employers fire someone without justification (protected classes excepted).

    monikerjmcdonald
  • Bloods EndBloods End Blade of Tyshalle Punch dimensionRegistered User regular
    Uncounted votes include votes from John Lewis's old district.

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  • ArcanisTheImpotentArcanisTheImpotent Registered User regular
    since I got bottom'd re the putin thing:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8919975/Putin-quit-January-amid-fears-Parkinsons-disease-Moscow-sources-claim.html

    source: the daily mail, who sometimes is guilty of doing news

  • Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Taranis wrote: »
    My wife’s friend, here in Abilene TX, just got this in her mailbox

    8zd4e5mmjrfq.jpeg

    I don't even know what this is supposed to accomplish once the election is over. Even if they plan on following through, this only gives her time to prepare in some way. This is what I'm afraid of though. Trump has a lot of clout with the alt-right even if he loses the election. There's too many dumb trump supporters with guns out there, and many of them are my neighbors.

    We have more guns than our neighbors. The Right wants to start a civil war I think they're going to have some surprises about how soft a target some people are. Personally I'm skeptical that they're organized enough for that though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    If the "takeover" of the bird sanctuary in Oregon was any indicator, most of these people are such obstinate assholes that they can barely keep from killing each other when they're put in the same general space for any length of time.

    Dark_Side on
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  • MvrckMvrck Registered User regular
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Other thing to note about PA for anyone still on the fence - none of this includes the 300k they had to set aside due to court order.

    *35k

    Yeah definitely typoed that. Whoops.

    That's a big difference, lol.

    Sort of. It should guarantee it gets out of recount range is the big thing.

    PwH4Ipj.jpg
  • RickRudeRickRude Registered User regular
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    Commander ZoomJaysonFourA Kobold's KoboldmarajiTicaldfjamTetraNitroCubaneProhassMan in the MistsMaijinamuroDocGnome-InterruptusNobeardRaijuArdolshrykeLabel
  • ToxTox I kill threads he/himRegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    i was gonna say hey guys putin doesn't have much to do with the election but

    I had the wrong tab open. Sorry everyone.

    But hey, current estimates are PA goes Biden and never looks back around midnight PST.

    Remember remember the 5th of November.


    Nate Silver is a stats nerd.

    After midnight would be the 6th.

    Tox on
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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    moniker wrote: »
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

    Yeah fucking right

    No, actually, apparently. It looks like he has Parkinson's?

    He's pushing a 'lifetime immunity from prosecution for former Presidents' bill through the government. So... actually yeah, maybe. Had to wait this long though, huh.

    Watch Trump immediately try to get one of those for himself.

    and Mitch will smile like a reptile and say 'no'

    Commander Zoom on
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  • KetBraKetBra Dressed Ridiculously Registered User regular
    since I got bottom'd re the putin thing:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8919975/Putin-quit-January-amid-fears-Parkinsons-disease-Moscow-sources-claim.html

    source: the daily mail, who sometimes is guilty of doing news

    It's absolutely true because I read it in the daily mail

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  • BlackDragon480BlackDragon480 Bluster Kerfuffle Master of Windy ImportRegistered User regular
    I've finished my sandwich and I have an early day at work tomorrow, so I'm heading to bed.

    Godspeed fellow dragon watchers, may the odds be forever in our favor, and hopefully I can blaze my stoggies with you guys tomorrow.

    First they came for the Muslims and we said...NOT TODAY MOTHERFUCKERS!
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  • ToxTox I kill threads he/himRegistered User regular
    Tox wrote: »
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    i was gonna say hey guys putin doesn't have much to do with the election but

    I had the wrong tab open. Sorry everyone.

    But hey, current estimates are PA goes Biden and never looks back around midnight PST.

    Remember remember the 5th of November.


    Nate Silver is a stats nerd.

    After midnight would be the 6th.

    I'm sorry I know this such a rude thing to say to someone.

  • GnomeTankGnomeTank Registered User regular
    Taranis wrote: »
    My wife’s friend, here in Abilene TX, just got this in her mailbox

    8zd4e5mmjrfq.jpeg

    I don't even know what this is supposed to accomplish once the election is over. Even if they plan on following through, this only gives her time to prepare in some way. This is what I'm afraid of though. Trump has a lot of clout with the alt-right even if he loses the election. There's too many dumb trump supporters with guns out there, and many of them are my neighbors.

    We have more guns than our neighbors. The Right wants to start a civil war I think they're going to have some surprises about how soft a target some people are. Personally I'm skeptical that they're organized enough for that though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    The "liberals aren't armed" thing always makes me smirk. I go to the range a couple times a month with a group of other very liberal dads. "Unarmed" would be a very poor adjective to use to describe the group.

    Sagroth wrote: »
    Oh c'mon FyreWulff, no one's gonna pay to visit Uranus.
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  • milskimilski Poyo! Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    i was gonna say hey guys putin doesn't have much to do with the election but

    I had the wrong tab open. Sorry everyone.

    But hey, current estimates are PA goes Biden and never looks back around midnight PST.

    Remember remember the 5th of November.


    Nate Silver is a stats nerd.

    We're on page 117, far past even anime. So I am obliged to make this post.

    {S}: 3:14 AM

    milski on
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  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    again, it's not as close as you think it is relative to other elections

    it's appearing close because we're waiting on the counts where we normally don't have to wait on the counts before things are called

    if you haven't been going back and checking election results days or weeks later before this year then you don't actually have a correct picture in your head of how close results usually have been

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
    Commander ZoommonikerhtmjmcdonaldHahnsoo1rahkeesh2000FencingsaxDidgeridooBlackDragon480
  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    Crap, Trump's lead just went up by like a dozen votes in GA, what happened?

    JaysonFour
  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    GnomeTank wrote: »
    Taranis wrote: »
    My wife’s friend, here in Abilene TX, just got this in her mailbox

    8zd4e5mmjrfq.jpeg

    I don't even know what this is supposed to accomplish once the election is over. Even if they plan on following through, this only gives her time to prepare in some way. This is what I'm afraid of though. Trump has a lot of clout with the alt-right even if he loses the election. There's too many dumb trump supporters with guns out there, and many of them are my neighbors.

    We have more guns than our neighbors. The Right wants to start a civil war I think they're going to have some surprises about how soft a target some people are. Personally I'm skeptical that they're organized enough for that though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    The "liberals aren't armed" thing always makes me smirk. I go to the range a couple times a month with a group of other very liberal dads. "Unarmed" would be a very poor adjective to use to describe the group.

    can we please avoid this line of conversation like if we keep talking about it Trump is going to jump out of a birthday cake naked?

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
    Knight_htmCommander ZoomGnome-Interruptus
  • Giggles_FunsworthGiggles_Funsworth Blight on Discourse Bay Area SprawlRegistered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Taranis wrote: »
    My wife’s friend, here in Abilene TX, just got this in her mailbox

    8zd4e5mmjrfq.jpeg

    I don't even know what this is supposed to accomplish once the election is over. Even if they plan on following through, this only gives her time to prepare in some way. This is what I'm afraid of though. Trump has a lot of clout with the alt-right even if he loses the election. There's too many dumb trump supporters with guns out there, and many of them are my neighbors.

    We have more guns than our neighbors. The Right wants to start a civil war I think they're going to have some surprises about how soft a target some people are. Personally I'm skeptical that they're organized enough for that though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    If the "takeover" of the bird sanctuary in Oregon was any indicator, most of these people are such obstinate assholes that they can barely keep from killing each other when they're put in the same general space for any length of time.

    Yeah. It also really doesn't help that most intel people in the military are extremely liberal.

    We might get some random acts of violence but I don't think they're anywhere near coordinated enough for a long term conflict.

    Dark_SideRaiju
  • Knight_Knight_ Dead Dead Dead Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Other thing to note about PA for anyone still on the fence - none of this includes the 30k they had to set aside due to court order.

    Edit - Had one too many zeros cause I'm dumb.

    i might be wrong but they weren't ordered to set them aside

    the SCOTUS decision about the "late" PA ballots (postmarked on time but arrived after Tuesday) left room for them to be challenged, which is also the only potential case Trump has for challenging the election at this point, so PA decided to set them aside to be safe

    different ballots. the Allegheny county ballots were improperly printed and delivered and had to be inspected as per a court order for accuracy and not be counted until friday.

    aeNqQM9.jpg
    monikerBlackDragon480
  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    Knight_ wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    Mvrck wrote: »
    Other thing to note about PA for anyone still on the fence - none of this includes the 30k they had to set aside due to court order.

    Edit - Had one too many zeros cause I'm dumb.

    i might be wrong but they weren't ordered to set them aside

    the SCOTUS decision about the "late" PA ballots (postmarked on time but arrived after Tuesday) left room for them to be challenged, which is also the only potential case Trump has for challenging the election at this point, so PA decided to set them aside to be safe

    different ballots. the Allegheny county ballots were improperly printed and delivered and had to be inspected as per a court order for accuracy and not be counted until friday.

    ah ok

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
  • htmhtm Registered User regular
    From Norman Onrstein, one of the wretched Enlighted Centrists at The Atlantic:



    Oh, please. Oh, please. Oh, please.
    Iä! Iä! Needle fhtagn!

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

    Yeah fucking right

    No, actually, apparently. It looks like he has Parkinson's?

    He's pushing a 'lifetime immunity from prosecution for former Presidents' bill through the government. So... actually yeah, maybe. Had to wait this long though, huh.

    Watch Trump immediately try to get one of those for himself.

    and Mitch will smile like a reptile and say 'no'

    I am more certain that he writes himself a Pardon on his last day in Office than I am of Biden winning this election.

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  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    It may not end up being super close when everything is counted. The order of counting votes has certainly added stress!

    It should have been a blow out, though, because Trump is a trash human being. So I agree that anything closer than that is too close.

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  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    moniker wrote: »
    Taramoor wrote: »
    Putin announced he’s stepping down. What in the fuck is 2020

    Yeah fucking right

    No, actually, apparently. It looks like he has Parkinson's?

    He's pushing a 'lifetime immunity from prosecution for former Presidents' bill through the government. So... actually yeah, maybe. Had to wait this long though, huh.

    Until the rotting chaos golem he Yeltsin'd us with fully ripened? Seems like the perfect time to kick back and enjoy it if you ask me.

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
  • Fuzzy Cumulonimbus CloudFuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud Registered User regular
    I thought he was stepping down to get re elected as chancellor or whatever

    GyralmarajiPhoenix-D
  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    htm wrote: »
    From Norman Onrstein, one of the wretched Enlighted Centrists at The Atlantic:



    Oh, please. Oh, please. Oh, please.
    Iä! Iä! Needle fhtagn!

    Like I said, Alaska is like Arizona where we were already doing lots of mail-in ballot stuff, so Trump probably wasn't able to poison the minds Republicans up against mail-in voting like he did elsewhere.

    monikerhtmChanusBlackDragon480
  • y2jake215y2jake215 certified Flat Birther theorist the Last Good Boy onlineRegistered User regular
    Crap, Trump's lead just went up by like a dozen votes in GA, what happened?

    Fraud!

    C8Ft8GE.jpg
    maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
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  • zagdrobzagdrob Registered User regular
    Putin doesn't need to worry about immunity to prosecution.

    He needs to worry about being around high windows when he pisses off the wrong group of oligarchs.

    He either ends up in a shallow grave he was made to dg himself or an ornate tomb. He has set it up so there is no middle ground.

    IncenjucarMillhtm
  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    htm wrote: »
    From Norman Onrstein, one of the wretched Enlighted Centrists at The Atlantic:



    Oh, please. Oh, please. Oh, please.
    Iä! Iä! Needle fhtagn!

    this is more of an all things are possible thing than something to actively hope for

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
    monikerOremLKFiendishrabbitCommander ZoomMillwazillaToxPolaritieFleur de AlysmarajiFencingsaxPhoenix-DNobeardKetBraqwer12
  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    for one there's not a lot of reason to believe Alaska mail votes favor Biden like in the rest of the country

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
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  • ProhassProhass Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    The turn out numbers for trump feels more shocking than even his win in 2016. I know he’s the incumbent and covid has a lot of people at home etc

    But Jesus Christ America 70 plus million of you idiots voted for him this time, there’s no mistaking it, he is adored and loved for what he says

    Prohass on
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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    I'm aware AZ has been doing mail in for awhile. California has too and they have a trend where more conservative voters tend to get their ballots mailed in earlier, while more of the late arriving ballots show up later. I was asking fi this was a noticeable thing with AZ as well.

  • htmhtm Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    htm wrote: »
    From Norman Onrstein, one of the wretched Enlighted Centrists at The Atlantic:



    Oh, please. Oh, please. Oh, please.
    Iä! Iä! Needle fhtagn!

    this is more of an all things are possible thing than something to actively hope for

    One does not place one's hopes in The Needle. One simply begs and abases one's pathetic self before its dismal Eldritch Glory.
    Iä! Iä! Needle fhtagn!

    ArbitraryDescriptorSpecial KChanusBlackDragon480
  • ED!ED! Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Chanus wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    again, it's not as close as you think it is relative to other elections

    it's appearing close because we're waiting on the counts where we normally don't have to wait on the counts before things are called

    if you haven't been going back and checking election results days or weeks later before this year then you don't actually have a correct picture in your head of how close results usually have been

    Unless Biden wins all the remaining states this will have been one of the closest elections in history in terms of EC count. I really don't understand where this insistence otherwise is coming from.

    . . . it honestly feels like a sort of mantra honestly. Joe Biden is going to be the next president; acknowledging that this was closer than it needed to be isn't going to magically jinx that.

    ED! on
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This discussion has been closed.