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[2020 Election] Math is Dead

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Posts

  • cursedkingcursedking Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    again, it's not as close as you think it is relative to other elections

    it's appearing close because we're waiting on the counts where we normally don't have to wait on the counts before things are called

    if you haven't been going back and checking election results days or weeks later before this year then you don't actually have a correct picture in your head of how close results usually have been

    Georgia just updated and pushed Biden back to a 1,805 differential with only 9k votes left. I think it's going to be very very incredibly close. I don't know the counties enough to know if there are blue ones left

    TetraNitroCubane
  • y2jake215y2jake215 certified Flat Birther theorist the Last Good Boy onlineRegistered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    for one there's not a lot of reason to believe Alaska mail votes favor Biden like in the rest of the country

    I just looked it up and about 10% of 2016 ballots in Alaska were mail in. Looks like 40% or more this time? It’s certainly possible, especially subtracting all the independent candidates. I’m gonna choose to believe

    C8Ft8GE.jpg
    maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
    htmBlackDragon480
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Alaska is just a "hmm, might want to keep half an eye out" curiosity that probably ends with a double-digit R win. But it is curious.

    ToxPolaritiemonikerCantideChanusPhoenix-DkimeNobeardBlackDragon480Ardolshryke
  • y2jake215y2jake215 certified Flat Birther theorist the Last Good Boy onlineRegistered User regular
    cursedking wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    again, it's not as close as you think it is relative to other elections

    it's appearing close because we're waiting on the counts where we normally don't have to wait on the counts before things are called

    if you haven't been going back and checking election results days or weeks later before this year then you don't actually have a correct picture in your head of how close results usually have been

    Georgia just updated and pushed Biden back to a 1,805 differential with only 9k votes left. I think it's going to be very very incredibly close. I don't know the counties enough to know if there are blue ones left

    There are two big blue counties left (Gwinnett and Clayton) with 9k votes left, per Amy Gardner



    C8Ft8GE.jpg
    maybe i'm streaming terrible dj right now if i am its here
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    I just checked the local weather and I've got some bad news: It's going to rain in downtown LA this weekend

    ChanusFencingsaxDoodmannMrMisterGnome-InterruptusNobeardArdol
  • override367override367 ALL minions Registered User regular
    The last drop in PA was better than expectation yeah? What's biden need of the remaining PA vote to win

  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    Nate Silver is the five thirty eight guy who can't make pronouncements about various things at the moment due to obligations and affiliations.

    But he did just tweet this:


    XeniDAT.png

    VuIBhrs.png
  • rahkeesh2000rahkeesh2000 Registered User regular
    Following Nate's "lean" and "redacted" calls would put Biden well over 300, which isn't close in terms of EC.

    Would be better to say there's still a chance it ends up close, but you won't be dealing with chance when you can look at this election in retrospect like all the others.

    Chanus
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    ED! wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    again, it's not as close as you think it is relative to other elections

    it's appearing close because we're waiting on the counts where we normally don't have to wait on the counts before things are called

    if you haven't been going back and checking election results days or weeks later before this year then you don't actually have a correct picture in your head of how close results usually have been

    Unless Biden wins all the remaining states this will have been one of the closest elections in history in terms of EC count. I really don't understand where this insistence otherwise is coming from.

    . . . it honestly feels like a sort of mantra honestly. Joe Biden is going to be the next president; acknowledging that this was closer than it needed to be isn't going to magically jinx that.

    If Biden loses Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona flips back to Trump but wins Pennsylvania it will be 279 - 259 which is a wider margin than Bush v Gore in 2000: 271 - 266

    Keeping Arizona is 290-248
    Arizona plus Georgia is 306-232


    Popular Vote, of course, is a much larger margin.

    rahkeesh2000RozChanusBlackDragon480Ardolshryke
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    cursedking wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    again, it's not as close as you think it is relative to other elections

    it's appearing close because we're waiting on the counts where we normally don't have to wait on the counts before things are called

    if you haven't been going back and checking election results days or weeks later before this year then you don't actually have a correct picture in your head of how close results usually have been

    Georgia just updated and pushed Biden back to a 1,805 differential with only 9k votes left. I think it's going to be very very incredibly close. I don't know the counties enough to know if there are blue ones left

    There's up to 8900 overseas ballots and at least 5500 provisional ballots (from Atlanta) to process tomorrow. These last 9k tonight matter, but they can't end it.

    Per AJC:
    https://www.ajc.com/politics/more-ballots-arriving-in-georgia-from-overseas-and-provisional-voters/2IKU3WM5XZD7FDQE5DAOKYXTMY/

    ArbitraryDescriptor on
    monikerPhoenix-DDisrupter
  • cncaudatacncaudata Registered User regular
    Prohass wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    The turn out numbers for trump feels more shocking than even his win in 2016. I know his the incumbent and covid has a lot of people at home etc

    But Jesus Christ America 70 plus million of you idiots voted for him this time, there’s no mistaking it, he is adored and loved for what he says

    I keep wanting to post this, and don't because the thread moves so fast and I don't think it will matter. But maybe this will make you feel better.

    Every discussion about Trump's support, dem outreach, turnout, messaging, biden pupularity, ad nauseum has to start and end with (you can have the nuance in the middle; I don't disagree that Dems can have better slogans, for instance):

    One party in this country is entirely dedicated to, and has a media consortium of both traditional and social varieties to support, lying to the American people.

    Most of Trump's voters do not support trump. They support the thing trump lies to say he is. Most are not against biden. They are against the thing the Republicans lie to say he is.

    It infuriates me that we are already getting questions about how Biden can reach these folks, or work with pubs, etc, when the folks that can be reached already want the things Biden wants to do, they've just been lied to. And the pubs have no interest in doing anything other than taking away healthcare, destroying the environment, and giving money to the rich.

    So much more to say but again, there have probably been 50 posts already.

    My point is, don't despair about the people; they've been lied to.

    Just despair because we have no idea how to convince anyone to pay attention to reality.

    PSN: Broodax- battle.net: broodax#1163
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  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    hive caribbean knee toggle

    of course!

    Xaquin on
    dispatch.oAridholChanusShadowfireDiannaoChongSpecial KDoodmannLinespider5EndaroSummaryJudgmentDynagripElldrenDysRehabMuddy WaterGSMGnome-InterruptusNobeardnever dieTehSpectreBlackDragon480ArdolSmrtnikWiseManTobesLabelN1tSt4lkerMonwynCelestialBadgerKoopahTroopahKlytusKayne Red Robe
  • wazillawazilla Registered User regular
    Ok I thought it was run off at the end and that seriously confused me

    Psn:wazukki
  • Munkus BeaverMunkus Beaver Registered User, ClubPA regular
    Nate Silver is the five thirty eight guy who can't make pronouncements about various things at the moment due to obligations and affiliations.

    But he did just tweet this:


    XeniDAT.png

    I have no idea what the fuck this means.

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  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    hive caribbean knee toggle

    of course!

    Bee Cuba Joint Switch...
    My god... Nate Silver was Q all along!

    VuIBhrs.png
    CelestialBadger
  • shalmeloshalmelo sees no evil Registered User regular
    ED! wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    again, it's not as close as you think it is relative to other elections

    it's appearing close because we're waiting on the counts where we normally don't have to wait on the counts before things are called

    if you haven't been going back and checking election results days or weeks later before this year then you don't actually have a correct picture in your head of how close results usually have been

    Unless Biden wins all the remaining states this will have been one of the closest elections in history in terms of EC count. I really don't understand where this insistence otherwise is coming from.

    . . . it honestly feels like a sort of mantra honestly. Joe Biden is going to be the next president; acknowledging that this was closer than it needed to be isn't going to magically jinx that.

    It's really not, though. Unless things go wildly off course in the next several hours, Biden is going to win by the same electoral margin in 2020 as Trump did in 2016, pending a Georgia recount.

    Steam ID: Shalmelo || LoL: melo2boogaloo || tweets
    rahkeesh2000
  • ArcTangentArcTangent Registered User regular
    Nate Silver is the five thirty eight guy who can't make pronouncements about various things at the moment due to obligations and affiliations.

    But he did just tweet this:


    XeniDAT.png

    I have no idea what the fuck this means.

    Hive Sea Knee Off -> "I've seen enough"

    htmTetraNitroCubaneFleur de AlysShadowfireCantiderahkeesh2000Label
  • TetraNitroCubaneTetraNitroCubane The Djinnerator At the bottom of a bottleRegistered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Nate Silver is the five thirty eight guy who can't make pronouncements about various things at the moment due to obligations and affiliations.

    But he did just tweet this:


    XeniDAT.png

    I have no idea what the fuck this means.

    Since he works for ABC he can't come out and call the race ahead of them, but presumably it means

    Hive + Sea + Knee + Off = I've Seen Enough

    TetraNitroCubane on
    VuIBhrs.png
  • wazillawazilla Registered User regular
    It's HIVE SEA KNEE OFF or I've seen enough

    Psn:wazukki
  • TaranisTaranis Registered User regular
    GnomeTank wrote: »
    Taranis wrote: »
    My wife’s friend, here in Abilene TX, just got this in her mailbox

    8zd4e5mmjrfq.jpeg

    I don't even know what this is supposed to accomplish once the election is over. Even if they plan on following through, this only gives her time to prepare in some way. This is what I'm afraid of though. Trump has a lot of clout with the alt-right even if he loses the election. There's too many dumb trump supporters with guns out there, and many of them are my neighbors.

    We have more guns than our neighbors. The Right wants to start a civil war I think they're going to have some surprises about how soft a target some people are. Personally I'm skeptical that they're organized enough for that though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    The "liberals aren't armed" thing always makes me smirk. I go to the range a couple times a month with a group of other very liberal dads. "Unarmed" would be a very poor adjective to use to describe the group.

    Being armed doesn't matter if you're sleeping or eating your cereal. It doesn't make me feel much safer. A civil war would be bad.

    EH28YFo.jpg
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  • LuvTheMonkeyLuvTheMonkey High Sierra Serenade Registered User regular
    ArcTangent wrote: »
    Nate Silver is the five thirty eight guy who can't make pronouncements about various things at the moment due to obligations and affiliations.

    But he did just tweet this:


    XeniDAT.png

    I have no idea what the fuck this means.

    Hive Sea Knee Off -> "I've seen enough"

    He was subtweeting Dave Wasserman - that's Dave's catch phrase for calling elections.

    Molten variables hiss and roar. On my mind-forge, I hammer them into the greatsword Epistemology. Many are my foes this night.
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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Doesn't want to step on Wasserman's toes or just be a silly person.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    Http:// pleasepaypreacher.net
    htm
  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    hive caribbean knee toggle

    of course!

    bee gulf leg off obviously

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
    TetraNitroCubaneXaquinhtmDidgeridooSpecial KDiannaoChongmonikerFencingsaxMan in the MistsboogedybooSummaryJudgmentElldrenBlackDragon480ArdolKlytus
  • OremLKOremLK Registered User regular
    Clayton alone should do it. That could be a nearly 4000 vote margin.

  • TuminTumin Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Twitter seems to have interpreted Nate's nonsensical breach it to "Ive seen enough" which I guess means he thinks it's a lock.

    Not sure how you get from carribbean to sea or C really.

    Tumin on
  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    hive caribbean knee toggle

    of course!
    hive sea knee off

    I’ve seen enough

    wbBv3fj.png
  • RozRoz Boss of InternetRegistered User regular
    A writer for local Georgia news:



    Gwinnet County stopped counting ballots to allow Clayton to put Joe Biden over the top out of respect for John Lewis (this was his district). Expect a dump around midnight.

    XaquinChanusmilskihtmdispatch.oNiryaTaraniswobblyheadedbobSaarmonikerMan in the MistsshalmelokimeFencingsaxMilloverride367ThegreatcowElldrenCantideFleur de AlysAbsoluteZeroGnome-InterruptusNobeardnever dieBlackDragon480ForarArdolAtomikaRMS OceanicLabelPixelated PixiebrynhrtmnMonwynKoopahTroopahRiuskaceypKlytusKayne Red RobeJust_Bri_Thanks
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    hive caribbean knee toggle

    of course!

    "But what does it mean?" </burtward>

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    Steam, Warframe: Megajoule
    Xaquin
  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Goumindong wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    hive caribbean knee toggle

    of course!
    hive sea knee off

    I’ve seen enough

    jinkies!

  • GoumindongGoumindong Registered User regular
    Tumin wrote: »
    Twitter seems to have interpreted Nate's nonsensical breach it to "Ive seen enough" which I guess means he thinks it's a lock.

    Not sure how you get from carribbean to sea or C really.

    It’s the Caribbean Sea that was the image.

    wbBv3fj.png
    kime
  • milskimilski Poyo! Registered User regular
    Roz wrote: »
    A writer for local Georgia news:



    Gwinnet County stopped counting ballots to allow Clayton to put Joe Biden over the top out of respect for John Lewis (this was his district). Expect a dump around midnight.

    Midnight eastern, as in 22 minutes from now?

    I ate an engineer
  • tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    Roz wrote: »
    A writer for local Georgia news:



    Gwinnet County stopped counting ballots to allow Clayton to put Joe Biden over the top out of respect for John Lewis (this was his district). Expect a dump around midnight.

    What John Lewis would have wanted is to kick the madman in the Oval office out as fast as is humanly possible, ideally with as large as possible a posted vote lead so as to avoid any controversy.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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  • DiannaoChongDiannaoChong Registered User regular
    Math doesn't work this way, why do we ever look at his models?

    steam_sig.png
  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    milski wrote: »
    Roz wrote: »
    A writer for local Georgia news:



    Gwinnet County stopped counting ballots to allow Clayton to put Joe Biden over the top out of respect for John Lewis (this was his district). Expect a dump around midnight.

    Midnight eastern, as in 22 minutes from now?

    likely since Georgia is Eastern

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
    htmmonikerFencingsax
  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Roz wrote: »
    A writer for local Georgia news:



    Gwinnet County stopped counting ballots to allow Clayton to put Joe Biden over the top out of respect for John Lewis (this was his district). Expect a dump around midnight.

    I can't tell if he's being serious with that tweet.

    Phoenix-Dmoniker
  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Nate Silver is the five thirty eight guy who can't make pronouncements about various things at the moment due to obligations and affiliations.

    But he did just tweet this:


    XeniDAT.png

    Murder Hornets in the Bermuda Triangle are Kneed Off

    XaquinChanushtmTetraNitroCubaneMan in the MistsFencingsaxKruitezepherinN1tSt4lkermarajiKlytus
  • ED!ED! Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    ED! wrote: »
    Chanus wrote: »
    RickRude wrote: »
    This shouldn't be be this close.

    again, it's not as close as you think it is relative to other elections

    it's appearing close because we're waiting on the counts where we normally don't have to wait on the counts before things are called

    if you haven't been going back and checking election results days or weeks later before this year then you don't actually have a correct picture in your head of how close results usually have been

    Unless Biden wins all the remaining states this will have been one of the closest elections in history in terms of EC count. I really don't understand where this insistence otherwise is coming from.

    . . . it honestly feels like a sort of mantra honestly. Joe Biden is going to be the next president; acknowledging that this was closer than it needed to be isn't going to magically jinx that.

    If Biden loses Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona flips back to Trump but wins Pennsylvania it will be 279 - 259 which is a wider margin than Bush v Gore in 2000: 271 - 266

    Keeping Arizona is 290-248
    Arizona plus Georgia is 306-232


    Popular Vote, of course, is a much larger margin.

    Wider than 2000 is not saying much. It will still be one of the closest in history. These things are usually won by wide margins. That isn't an opinion, it just is.

    "Get the hell out of me" - [ex]girlfriend
    Fuzzy Cumulonimbus Cloud
  • ChillyWillyChillyWilly Registered User regular
    GnomeTank wrote: »
    Taranis wrote: »
    My wife’s friend, here in Abilene TX, just got this in her mailbox

    8zd4e5mmjrfq.jpeg

    I don't even know what this is supposed to accomplish once the election is over. Even if they plan on following through, this only gives her time to prepare in some way. This is what I'm afraid of though. Trump has a lot of clout with the alt-right even if he loses the election. There's too many dumb trump supporters with guns out there, and many of them are my neighbors.

    We have more guns than our neighbors. The Right wants to start a civil war I think they're going to have some surprises about how soft a target some people are. Personally I'm skeptical that they're organized enough for that though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    The "liberals aren't armed" thing always makes me smirk. I go to the range a couple times a month with a group of other very liberal dads. "Unarmed" would be a very poor adjective to use to describe the group.

    There is a huge difference between "gun owner" and "ammosexual".

    The latter group tends to the think the former group is part of their group.

    Which is *not* the case.

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  • milskimilski Poyo! Registered User regular
    Chanus wrote: »
    milski wrote: »
    Roz wrote: »
    A writer for local Georgia news:



    Gwinnet County stopped counting ballots to allow Clayton to put Joe Biden over the top out of respect for John Lewis (this was his district). Expect a dump around midnight.

    Midnight eastern, as in 22 minutes from now?

    likely since Georgia is Eastern

    Oh yeah, it is.

    My brain is deep fried at this point.

    I ate an engineer
    Xaquin
  • ChanusChanus Just venting, Not seeking solutions. Registered User regular
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Roz wrote: »
    A writer for local Georgia news:



    Gwinnet County stopped counting ballots to allow Clayton to put Joe Biden over the top out of respect for John Lewis (this was his district). Expect a dump around midnight.

    I can't tell if he's being serious with that tweet.

    well i thought i could before you said that

    god damn it

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
    htmmaraji
This discussion has been closed.