The Barr thing is going to end up going nowhere, just like all the Barr ratfucking investigations have gone. Remember his investigation into the FBI's lack of investigation into Hillary? Or the "unmasking" investigation? They all ended suddenly with no outcome and no report. This will be the same thing.
The point of it is not to find anything, it's just to taint the waters so the next 4 years can be seen as corrupt, like the 4 years spent convincing Obama was not eligible to be president.
The Barr thing is going to end up going nowhere, just like all the Barr ratfucking investigations have gone. Remember his investigation into the FBI's lack of investigation into Hillary? Or the "unmasking" investigation? They all ended suddenly with no outcome and no report. This will be the same thing.
The point of it is not to find anything, it's just to taint the waters so the next 4 years can be seen as corrupt, like the 4 years spent convincing Obama was not eligible to be president.
Best Case Scenario - It's to keep the base fired up long enough to try and win the GA runoffs. This isn't great because it means two months of hyper-partisan rhetoric that the election was 'stolen', and drastically increases the chances of stochastic terrorism. As a lesser result, it encourages Trump to delay the transition.
Worst Case Scenario - It's the first step in an attempted coup
Or anything in between could happen.
You missed "install the necessary pre-ratfucking in GA to ensure McConnell remains Majority Leader."
So my big question at this point is at what point if this continues does this qualify as an insurrection under the 14th amendment?
With a reminder that participation in an insurrection is specifically noted as disqualifying a person from a house or senate seat unless the house/senate votes with a 2/3 majority to seat them.
just pure speculation here. Maybe the target for Barr and McConnell isn't the Presidency at all, but it's something to do with the Georgia SecState and putting Perdue over the runoff line via legislation. That makes the Warnock runoff irrelevant.
just pure speculation here. Maybe the target for Barr and McConnell isn't the Presidency at all, but it's something to do with the Georgia SecState and putting Perdue over the runoff line via legislation. That makes the Warnock runoff irrelevant.
Nah.
It is about the Senate, maintaining that anger and sense of something stolen to get out the voters. But it isn't about changing the race. Also again, the Senate would have no power to intercede here. DoJ has limited power but not really enough to do anything. Its just keeping that base riled up.
Which I am uncertain what happens after the electors officially vote in December or the race is certified at the end of this month. Not sure how you keep stoking the fears when that is all done.
just pure speculation here. Maybe the target for Barr and McConnell isn't the Presidency at all, but it's something to do with the Georgia SecState and putting Perdue over the runoff line via legislation. That makes the Warnock runoff irrelevant.
Nah.
It is about the Senate, maintaining that anger and sense of something stolen to get out the voters. But it isn't about changing the race. Also again, the Senate would have no power to intercede here. DoJ has limited power but not really enough to do anything. Its just keeping that base riled up.
Which I am uncertain what happens after the electors officially vote in December or the race is certified at the end of this month. Not sure how you keep stoking the fears when that is all done.
Feels like it's possible for the DoJ to accuse Georgia of *election crimes* and demand enough ballots get pitched to put Purdue out of recount range. Case would go directly to SCOTUS with original jurisdiction. That would be a lot less outrageous and I think probably not cause any sort of unrest.
just pure speculation here. Maybe the target for Barr and McConnell isn't the Presidency at all, but it's something to do with the Georgia SecState and putting Perdue over the runoff line via legislation. That makes the Warnock runoff irrelevant.
Nah.
It is about the Senate, maintaining that anger and sense of something stolen to get out the voters. But it isn't about changing the race. Also again, the Senate would have no power to intercede here. DoJ has limited power but not really enough to do anything. Its just keeping that base riled up.
Which I am uncertain what happens after the electors officially vote in December or the race is certified at the end of this month. Not sure how you keep stoking the fears when that is all done.
Then it's the grievance phase, anger at criminals getting away with crimes. They just keep screaming about how unjust the legal decision is. Like when Comey came out in the last week to exonerate Hillary and thereby seal her fate.
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AbsalonLands of Always WinterRegistered Userregular
edited November 2020
It would appear Biden is getting a healthy dose of reality viz. the possibility of healing, unity and cooperation in tandem with republicans and their voters.
It would appear Biden is getting a healthy dose of reality viz. the possibility of healing, unity and cooperation in tandem with republicans and their voters.
Hopefully he's learned from the Obama era to not bother trying to be bi-partisan. That said, he should definitely continue to publicly talk about what he wants in those terms.
Yeah, I know it seems like Biden really wants to work Republicans and reach across the aisle but this is clearly showing how they plan to view and act during his administration.
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ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
It's so ridiculous to care about the Manchin statements right now and everyone is working themselves into a froth for basically no reason.
We don't even have the senate yet, so it may not even matter.
Politicians change their mind. All. The. Time.
If we win the Senate in four months he could just say "well we tried to work with them and I really thought they'd negotiate in good faith with Joe Biden but right now this country needs to much and I'm going to have to kill the filibuster."
I don't mine Joe, or ANYONE, giving Republicans the opportunity to come around and be a reasonable opposition party. If/when they're ready to play ball we should fucking welcome that because that's how you turn the temperature down and start fixing this polarization. What they should do is put a tight clock on that and say "Okay, we're willing to talk, you have x amount of time to deal, and then we're just going to carry on without you if that's how you want to be."
Is Alaska still not being called? Or did I just miss it?
They start counting the outstanding early votes and all the mail in ballots today.
Theoretically if Biden gets a 67/33 split (68/32 for Gross) then he wins the state.
He will not get that level of split. In 2016 Trump won the mail in split 60/40 and the mail vote volume is only double what it was in 2016.
He got that split in Pennsylvania. Also, do you think maybe something happened between 2016 and now to discourage Republicans from mailing in their ballots?
Yeah, I know it seems like Biden really wants to work Republicans and reach across the aisle but this is clearly showing how they plan to view and act during his administration.
There is definitely going to be some obstruction. No doubt. It's important that we focus on that and turnout for the mid terms. Calling them out whenever possible.
However this is just standard GOP obstructionist horrible, and I'm kind of looking forward to a less awful version of government. There are going to be some budget battles. There are going to be agenda and tax items. It's going to be annoying and troublesome, but we'll get through those, and 2022 is a good year to pick up 2 or 3 seats if need be.
I get a feeling in my belly, 2020 being 2020 and Georgia being Georgia, they split the vote. I just can't help but acknowledge the hackles on my neck and think we're going to get one and lose one there. It's just the feeling I get.
Is Alaska still not being called? Or did I just miss it?
They start counting the outstanding early votes and all the mail in ballots today.
Theoretically if Biden gets a 67/33 split (68/32 for Gross) then he wins the state.
He will not get that level of split. In 2016 Trump won the mail in split 60/40 and the mail vote volume is only double what it was in 2016.
He got that split in Pennsylvania. Also, do you think maybe something happened between 2016 and now to discourage Republicans from mailing in their ballots?
He got wayyyyyyy better than that split in Penn.
Alaska has a well established Vote By Mail operation. Early In-Person Vote numbers have only moved a little, in line with increased turnout and have split (so far) 51/49 Biden, they split 51/49 Clinton in 2016. So we can assume the remaining Early In Person votes will continue to split 51/49.
The signs are not there in the current in-person on the day vote for Biden like they were in Penn. I estimate he's going to split the Mail vote 55/45 at best.
To put it another way if you assume all the 2016 GOPers who voted by mail in 2016 voted by mail in 2020 and the same for 2016 Dem voters then Biden would need to take 95% of the 2020 increase in mail in voting to win.
I haven't had the time to go through the Alaska House level results from 2016/2020 to build a full model like I did for Penn so the above is all rough estimates but that 95% figure shows the sheer scale that Biden has to climb.
It would appear Biden is getting a healthy dose of reality viz. the possibility of healing, unity and cooperation in tandem with republicans and their voters.
Hopefully he's learned from the Obama era to not bother trying to be bi-partisan. That said, he should definitely continue to publicly talk about what he wants in those terms.
he should absolutely try to be bi-partisan .... he should also be prepared to very quickly drop it when the obvious shit starts up
Biden is not winning Alaska. It’s hardly worth talking about.
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ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
I also think we should be more aggressive about giving them whatever the hell we want for whatever the hell they want. Marry stimulus with more tax cuts or a promise of a continuation of Trump ones. Who gives a shit? Deficits don't matter. Increase defense spending for shoring up the ACA.
I don't care if the ball moves in their direction if we're getting something equal in ours. Make deals, get shit done, start governing.
I also think we should be more aggressive about giving them whatever the hell we want for whatever the hell they want. Marry stimulus with more tax cuts or a promise of a continuation of Trump ones. Who gives a shit? Deficits don't matter. Increase defense spending for shoring up the ACA.
I don't care if the ball moves in their direction if we're getting something equal in ours. Make deals, get shit done, start governing.
What they want is us not getting what we want. If I want to build a bridge over a river and the Republicans don't want me to do that building half a bridge isn't a compromise for anyone.
So my big question at this point is at what point if this continues does this qualify as an insurrection under the 14th amendment?
With a reminder that participation in an insurrection is specifically noted as disqualifying a person from a house or senate seat unless the house/senate votes with a 2/3 majority to seat them.
The way things are now? It would at the very least be after the electors vote Biden in, and probably realistically after inauguration.
For all the bluster and rhetoric being far beyond what we've seen in the past, he is still President and has the right to be a pathetic sore loser.
You can say an awful lot before you actually get into insurrection. I'd say the most likely (not really likely) thing is if in January he brings a bunch of his armed cosplayers into the White House and tries to play 'Occupy White House' after Biden is President.
At which point I'm pretty sure the USSS will very pointedly explain to them why that is a very very bad idea and they need to surrender and vacate ASAP.
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ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
I also think we should be more aggressive about giving them whatever the hell we want for whatever the hell they want. Marry stimulus with more tax cuts or a promise of a continuation of Trump ones. Who gives a shit? Deficits don't matter. Increase defense spending for shoring up the ACA.
I don't care if the ball moves in their direction if we're getting something equal in ours. Make deals, get shit done, start governing.
Obama tried that for eight years.
They don’t want compromise in any meaningful sense of the word. Offer them tax cuts and they’ll magnanimously offer to not attack your family for a month.
+47
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ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
I also think we should be more aggressive about giving them whatever the hell we want for whatever the hell they want. Marry stimulus with more tax cuts or a promise of a continuation of Trump ones. Who gives a shit? Deficits don't matter. Increase defense spending for shoring up the ACA.
I don't care if the ball moves in their direction if we're getting something equal in ours. Make deals, get shit done, start governing.
Obama tried that for eight years.
They don’t want compromise in any meaningful sense of the word. Offer them tax cuts and they’ll magnanimously offer to not attack your family for a month.
No, Obama's strategy was clearly "let them play their games Hillary will win and cement my legacy and they'll come to their senses and see they'll never be able to govern again."
I also think we should be more aggressive about giving them whatever the hell we want for whatever the hell they want. Marry stimulus with more tax cuts or a promise of a continuation of Trump ones. Who gives a shit? Deficits don't matter. Increase defense spending for shoring up the ACA.
I don't care if the ball moves in their direction if we're getting something equal in ours. Make deals, get shit done, start governing.
Obama tried that for eight years.
They don’t want compromise in any meaningful sense of the word. Offer them tax cuts and they’ll magnanimously offer to not attack your family for a month.
No, Obama's strategy was clearly "let them play their games Hillary will win and cement my legacy and they'll come to their senses and see they'll never be able to govern again."
I also think we should be more aggressive about giving them whatever the hell we want for whatever the hell they want. Marry stimulus with more tax cuts or a promise of a continuation of Trump ones. Who gives a shit? Deficits don't matter. Increase defense spending for shoring up the ACA.
I don't care if the ball moves in their direction if we're getting something equal in ours. Make deals, get shit done, start governing.
Obama tried that for eight years.
They don’t want compromise in any meaningful sense of the word. Offer them tax cuts and they’ll magnanimously offer to not attack your family for a month.
No, Obama's strategy was clearly "let them play their games Hillary will win and cement my legacy and they'll come to their senses and see they'll never be able to govern again."
Oops.
That’s just blatantly untrue. He spent massive amounts of time reaching across the aisle years before his first term was even over. He offered Republicans things they wanted for things we wanted. And every time was rebuked as unreasonable followed by lamenting Obama’s refusal to reach out to Republicans and his total lack of bipartisanship.
The very notion that he spent seven years of his tenure figuring someone else would take care of it is absurd.
I also think we should be more aggressive about giving them whatever the hell we want for whatever the hell they want. Marry stimulus with more tax cuts or a promise of a continuation of Trump ones. Who gives a shit? Deficits don't matter. Increase defense spending for shoring up the ACA.
I don't care if the ball moves in their direction if we're getting something equal in ours. Make deals, get shit done, start governing.
Obama tried that for eight years.
They don’t want compromise in any meaningful sense of the word. Offer them tax cuts and they’ll magnanimously offer to not attack your family for a month.
No, Obama's strategy was clearly "let them play their games Hillary will win and cement my legacy and they'll come to their senses and see they'll never be able to govern again."
Oops.
I think Obama expected Biden to continue his legacy, and I believe they both hoped that Beau would follow shorty after, but Beau died and Biden didn't run.
“What is the downside for humoring him for this little bit of time? No one seriously thinks the results will change,” said one senior Republican official. “He went golfing this weekend. It’s not like he’s plotting how to prevent Joe Biden from taking power on Jan. 20. He’s tweeting about filing some lawsuits, those lawsuits will fail, then he’ll tweet some more about how the election was stolen, and then he’ll leave.”
These are really foolish people unable to see the danger in their supporters believing an election is fraudulent
“What is the downside for humoring him for this little bit of time? No one seriously thinks the results will change,” said one senior Republican official. “He went golfing this weekend. It’s not like he’s plotting how to prevent Joe Biden from taking power on Jan. 20. He’s tweeting about filing some lawsuits, those lawsuits will fail, then he’ll tweet some more about how the election was stolen, and then he’ll leave.”
These are really foolish people unable to see the danger in their supporters believing an election is fraudulent
"Senior Republican officials" have been saying this shit about Trump the whole time. They've been wrong the whole time!
“What is the downside for humoring him for this little bit of time? No one seriously thinks the results will change,” said one senior Republican official. “He went golfing this weekend. It’s not like he’s plotting how to prevent Joe Biden from taking power on Jan. 20. He’s tweeting about filing some lawsuits, those lawsuits will fail, then he’ll tweet some more about how the election was stolen, and then he’ll leave.”
These are really foolish people unable to see the danger in their supporters believing an election is fraudulent
I mean this is thoroughly unsurprising none of them really understand what the chain of causality is. The idea that they could do something that causes bad stuff to happen is never gonna pierce their skull. It's just a totally alien idea to them.
Is Alaska still not being called? Or did I just miss it?
They are counting the remaining 40-50% of the votes today. Trump and Sullivan lead enough that its probably not going to change, but the mail-in vs in-person splits have been insane so we can't be 100% sure
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With a reminder that participation in an insurrection is specifically noted as disqualifying a person from a house or senate seat unless the house/senate votes with a 2/3 majority to seat them.
This is what happens when you let a mobster in.
Nah.
It is about the Senate, maintaining that anger and sense of something stolen to get out the voters. But it isn't about changing the race. Also again, the Senate would have no power to intercede here. DoJ has limited power but not really enough to do anything. Its just keeping that base riled up.
Which I am uncertain what happens after the electors officially vote in December or the race is certified at the end of this month. Not sure how you keep stoking the fears when that is all done.
Feels like it's possible for the DoJ to accuse Georgia of *election crimes* and demand enough ballots get pitched to put Purdue out of recount range. Case would go directly to SCOTUS with original jurisdiction. That would be a lot less outrageous and I think probably not cause any sort of unrest.
Then it's the grievance phase, anger at criminals getting away with crimes. They just keep screaming about how unjust the legal decision is. Like when Comey came out in the last week to exonerate Hillary and thereby seal her fate.
Hopefully he's learned from the Obama era to not bother trying to be bi-partisan. That said, he should definitely continue to publicly talk about what he wants in those terms.
Hold up writing a children’s book about this now
They start counting the outstanding early votes and all the mail in ballots today.
Theoretically if Biden gets a 67/33 split (68/32 for Gross) then he wins the state.
He will not get that level of split. In 2016 Trump won the mail in split 60/40 and the mail vote volume is only double what it was in 2016.
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We don't even have the senate yet, so it may not even matter.
Politicians change their mind. All. The. Time.
If we win the Senate in four months he could just say "well we tried to work with them and I really thought they'd negotiate in good faith with Joe Biden but right now this country needs to much and I'm going to have to kill the filibuster."
I don't mine Joe, or ANYONE, giving Republicans the opportunity to come around and be a reasonable opposition party. If/when they're ready to play ball we should fucking welcome that because that's how you turn the temperature down and start fixing this polarization. What they should do is put a tight clock on that and say "Okay, we're willing to talk, you have x amount of time to deal, and then we're just going to carry on without you if that's how you want to be."
He got that split in Pennsylvania. Also, do you think maybe something happened between 2016 and now to discourage Republicans from mailing in their ballots?
However this is just standard GOP obstructionist horrible, and I'm kind of looking forward to a less awful version of government. There are going to be some budget battles. There are going to be agenda and tax items. It's going to be annoying and troublesome, but we'll get through those, and 2022 is a good year to pick up 2 or 3 seats if need be.
I get a feeling in my belly, 2020 being 2020 and Georgia being Georgia, they split the vote. I just can't help but acknowledge the hackles on my neck and think we're going to get one and lose one there. It's just the feeling I get.
Oh Trump right now, yes. in the next year and a half, it looks like more regular obstruction.
He got wayyyyyyy better than that split in Penn.
Alaska has a well established Vote By Mail operation. Early In-Person Vote numbers have only moved a little, in line with increased turnout and have split (so far) 51/49 Biden, they split 51/49 Clinton in 2016. So we can assume the remaining Early In Person votes will continue to split 51/49.
The signs are not there in the current in-person on the day vote for Biden like they were in Penn. I estimate he's going to split the Mail vote 55/45 at best.
To put it another way if you assume all the 2016 GOPers who voted by mail in 2016 voted by mail in 2020 and the same for 2016 Dem voters then Biden would need to take 95% of the 2020 increase in mail in voting to win.
I haven't had the time to go through the Alaska House level results from 2016/2020 to build a full model like I did for Penn so the above is all rough estimates but that 95% figure shows the sheer scale that Biden has to climb.
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he should absolutely try to be bi-partisan .... he should also be prepared to very quickly drop it when the obvious shit starts up
We will reach a time where his obstruction becomes sedition.
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I don't care if the ball moves in their direction if we're getting something equal in ours. Make deals, get shit done, start governing.
What they want is us not getting what we want. If I want to build a bridge over a river and the Republicans don't want me to do that building half a bridge isn't a compromise for anyone.
The way things are now? It would at the very least be after the electors vote Biden in, and probably realistically after inauguration.
For all the bluster and rhetoric being far beyond what we've seen in the past, he is still President and has the right to be a pathetic sore loser.
You can say an awful lot before you actually get into insurrection. I'd say the most likely (not really likely) thing is if in January he brings a bunch of his armed cosplayers into the White House and tries to play 'Occupy White House' after Biden is President.
At which point I'm pretty sure the USSS will very pointedly explain to them why that is a very very bad idea and they need to surrender and vacate ASAP.
What a surprise.
Their state government is bought and sold by the oil companies
Obama tried that for eight years.
They don’t want compromise in any meaningful sense of the word. Offer them tax cuts and they’ll magnanimously offer to not attack your family for a month.
No, Obama's strategy was clearly "let them play their games Hillary will win and cement my legacy and they'll come to their senses and see they'll never be able to govern again."
Oops.
We watched very different 112th Congresses.
That’s just blatantly untrue. He spent massive amounts of time reaching across the aisle years before his first term was even over. He offered Republicans things they wanted for things we wanted. And every time was rebuked as unreasonable followed by lamenting Obama’s refusal to reach out to Republicans and his total lack of bipartisanship.
The very notion that he spent seven years of his tenure figuring someone else would take care of it is absurd.
I think Obama expected Biden to continue his legacy, and I believe they both hoped that Beau would follow shorty after, but Beau died and Biden didn't run.
"Senior Republican officials" have been saying this shit about Trump the whole time. They've been wrong the whole time!
I mean this is thoroughly unsurprising none of them really understand what the chain of causality is. The idea that they could do something that causes bad stuff to happen is never gonna pierce their skull. It's just a totally alien idea to them.
They are counting the remaining 40-50% of the votes today. Trump and Sullivan lead enough that its probably not going to change, but the mail-in vs in-person splits have been insane so we can't be 100% sure
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