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[US Economy]-Covid-19 Depression? Edition, though not about Covid itself

194969899100

Posts

  • furbatfurbat Registered User regular
    edited January 2021
    Cauld wrote: »
    furbat wrote: »
    No one in Tesla stock thinks it's fairly valued. They all think it's going to keep.going up and they are going to make money.

    I am thinking of shorting the stock, but it's very expensive and the odds are I'd.lose.money in the short term. I spoke with my wife about it today.

    I'm thinking every month buying a 1k short position 6 weeks out with a strike price of 50% current value. Not sure if this is a good strategy. 1k would buy me 4 contracts of 420p at 2/19.

    Repeat every month until I make money? Not sure how fast the stock will implode. We have to be nearing the end of all this.

    Right?

    Maybe I should wait until the 2k stimulus rolls out and everyone blows it on more TSLA shares.

    so to break even TSLA would have to be $417.5 on 2/19? It's currently at $842. Doesn't sound like a idea to me, but I've been wrong about TSLA plenty.

    If it drops to 300 you'd make 40k. Eventually you'd win...right?

    furbat on
  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    edited January 2021
    furbat wrote: »
    Yeah I was looking at cisco in 2000. They hit 77 (144 pre split) on March 31st. Dropped down into the 50s next month, but were still in 60s in June. But finally imploded rapidly in the summer over about a month down to 18 by September.

    So don't try to predict the drop, short on the trend. Like you said once it actually started to drop its going to keep dropping.

    Doodmann on
    Whippy wrote: »
    nope nope nope nope abort abort talk about anime
    Sometimes I sell my stuff on Ebay
  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    So if furbat’s bet were pay off how badly does that fuck me who has a fair bit just in s&p indexes....

  • AntinumericAntinumeric Registered User regular
    So with shorts the most you can gain is the value of the stock right?
    Stock is worth 100, you short it for 0.1, you can gain 99.9
    But the most you can lose is infinite, e.g same as above but you have to buy at 10000.
    And longs are the opposite? Most you can lose is the money you put in,but the stock could go up indefinitely (heat death of the universe allowing)

    Is my understanding correct?

    In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any phony god’s blessing. But because, I am enlightened by my intelligence.
  • CauldCauld Registered User regular
    furbat wrote: »
    Cauld wrote: »
    furbat wrote: »
    No one in Tesla stock thinks it's fairly valued. They all think it's going to keep.going up and they are going to make money.

    I am thinking of shorting the stock, but it's very expensive and the odds are I'd.lose.money in the short term. I spoke with my wife about it today.

    I'm thinking every month buying a 1k short position 6 weeks out with a strike price of 50% current value. Not sure if this is a good strategy. 1k would buy me 4 contracts of 420p at 2/19.

    Repeat every month until I make money? Not sure how fast the stock will implode. We have to be nearing the end of all this.

    Right?

    Maybe I should wait until the 2k stimulus rolls out and everyone blows it on more TSLA shares.

    so to break even TSLA would have to be $417.5 on 2/19? It's currently at $842. Doesn't sound like a idea to me, but I've been wrong about TSLA plenty.

    If it drops to 300 you'd make 40k. Eventually you'd win...right?

    Not at all. If it drops to 300 by 2/19 you'll win. If it drops to 700 then what's your plan? You won't be able to buy the 1 month out puts for the same price if it's already down 20%

  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    The only people that consistently make money shorting stocks are essentially private financial investigators that uncover high probabilities of fraud. Any amateur trying to short a stock as expensive as Tesla is setting themselves up for potential financial ruin. When you buy stock you can only lose whatever the stock is worth but when you choose to short it your potential for loss is virtually limitless.

    PSN: idontworkhere582 | CFN: idontworkhere | Steam: lordbutters | Amazon Wishlist
  • CauldCauld Registered User regular
    That's true, but furbat is talking about buying puts. Which limits his potential liability to his investment.

  • manwiththemachinegunmanwiththemachinegun METAL GEAR?! Registered User regular
    There is a financial value I've learned, in being just a bit stupid when it comes to investing. 10% stupid.

  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    My current "why am I too stupid to make money" watch is Bitcoin and some stocks that are tied to bitcoin that I am trying to short because surely it wont go about 30k what madness is this...sigh

    Whippy wrote: »
    nope nope nope nope abort abort talk about anime
    Sometimes I sell my stuff on Ebay
  • furbatfurbat Registered User regular
    edited January 2021
    I think it's worth talking about options because retail option trading is about to blow up the entire economy. This is because dumbasses like me now can trade options on our cellphones with no comission and the implications are pretty damn huge. The whole market is now a casino. And options affect stock prices. Here is a brief explanation.

    So, with an option you are purchasing the right to sell or buy a stock at a certain price. When you purchase or sell an option contract it is for 100 shares. Your liability is limited to the price of the contract. Options will have a strike price and an expiration date. Calls are the option to buy, puts are the option to sell.

    Let's look at a call. Back in November I bought calls on XOM (exon mobil, I'm definitely a dark side of the force type) with an expiration date of 6/18 and a strike price of $45 for $1.42. On 6/18 I have the right to pay $45 for a share of XOM. To purchase this call for 100 shares, I spent $142. To break even, the share has to be at 46.42, that's my break even point. As long as it is above 45, I'm in the money (ITM), I can recoup some of my bet. If it's under 45, I lose everything.

    However, every $1 over 46.42 I make $100.

    But that's not the end of the story, I can also sell my option contract at any time and its price will rise or decline as the stock fluctuates. In fact that contract is now worth 4.11 so I could sell that for $411. Options are highly volatile, its common to see 20-30% swings on even far out expiration dates. You can even make money just trading options.

    Puts work the same way, you are buying the option to sell at a price. If it costs $2.50 to sell TSLA at 420 on 2/19, your break even is 417.50. Every dollar under that you make $100. The contract costs $250. If it doesn't crash, your money is gone.

    There is more to all this. If you have 100 shares you can sell calls or puts on your shares. You can also sell naked calls and puts, selling options on shares you don't own. Basically this lets you make money by selling derivatives on your stocks.

    I'm too chicken to put puts on TSLA though. I think rationally it makes sense as a strategy to do over the long run. Just bet 1k every month that it implodes in 6 weeks. But... I dunno. Maybe if we get that 2k stimulus.

    furbat on
  • furbatfurbat Registered User regular
    There is a financial value I've learned, in being just a bit stupid when it comes to investing. 10% stupid.

    ✔️

    What's step 2?

  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    edited January 2021
    Doodmann wrote: »
    My current "why am I too stupid to make money" watch is Bitcoin and some stocks that are tied to bitcoin that I am trying to short because surely it wont go about 30k what madness is this...sigh

    We're all pretty sure bitcoin is propped up by black markets, right? There's enough blood money in the regular stock market. I don't need to fuck with crypto

    Butters on
    PSN: idontworkhere582 | CFN: idontworkhere | Steam: lordbutters | Amazon Wishlist
  • Martini_PhilosopherMartini_Philosopher Registered User regular
    Today's US jobs report is not good. Like moreso than normal, while this board may not be surprised by any of it, real-world folks might want to check themselves if they're not seeing these signs.

    Highlights include: A continuing loss of jobs. An estimated 140,000 when most expected to see an increase.
    The unemployment rates stayed steady at 6.7% meaning that a good chunk of people's benefits expired while many others probably dropped out of looking. Either result is troubling and a big problem.
    And the fun, fun fact that over fifteen million people reported that the pandemic is why they're not working right now.

    Happy Friday everyone!

    All opinions are my own and in no way reflect that of my employer.
  • enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    furbat wrote: »
    No one in Tesla stock thinks it's fairly valued. They all think it's going to keep.going up and they are going to make money.

    I am thinking of shorting the stock, but it's very expensive and the odds are I'd.lose.money in the short term. I spoke with my wife about it today.

    I'm thinking every month buying a 1k short position 6 weeks out with a strike price of 50% current value. Not sure if this is a good strategy. 1k would buy me 4 contracts of 420p at 2/19.

    Repeat every month until I make money? Not sure how fast the stock will implode. We have to be nearing the end of all this.

    Right?

    Maybe I should wait until the 2k stimulus rolls out and everyone blows it on more TSLA shares.

    What you're describing sounds like buying put options, rather than shorting the stock. FWIW, I think options are a much better choice for small-fry gambling. You can only lose what you spend.

    Also, as long as you don't need the money, a little gambling can be fun. Just don't let it distract you from steadily investing in low-cost index funds for your retirement.

  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    Doodmann wrote: »
    My current "why am I too stupid to make money" watch is Bitcoin and some stocks that are tied to bitcoin that I am trying to short because surely it wont go about 30k what madness is this...sigh

    We're all pretty sure bitcoin is propped up by black markets, right? There's enough blood money in the regular stock market. I don't need to fuck with crypto

    I get it being used as a digital "gold" stand in since it's become very clear it's not a currency. I don't understand why it went from 10k to 40k in the last month.

    Whippy wrote: »
    nope nope nope nope abort abort talk about anime
    Sometimes I sell my stuff on Ebay
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar VChatter Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    edited January 2021
    Butters wrote: »
    Doodmann wrote: »
    My current "why am I too stupid to make money" watch is Bitcoin and some stocks that are tied to bitcoin that I am trying to short because surely it wont go about 30k what madness is this...sigh

    We're all pretty sure bitcoin is propped up by black markets, right? There's enough blood money in the regular stock market. I don't need to fuck with crypto

    I generally assume that the value of bullshit currency is related to the current market for illegal goods and services and ransom.

    Incenjucar on
  • CauldCauld Registered User regular
    edited January 2021
    furbat wrote: »
    I think it's worth talking about options because retail option trading is about to blow up the entire economy. This is because dumbasses like me now can trade options on our cellphones with no comission and the implications are pretty damn huge. The whole market is now a casino. And options affect stock prices. Here is a brief explanation.

    So, with an option you are purchasing the right to sell or buy a stock at a certain price. When you purchase or sell an option contract it is for 100 shares. Your liability is limited to the price of the contract. Options will have a strike price and an expiration date. Calls are the option to buy, puts are the option to sell.

    Let's look at a call. Back in November I bought calls on XOM (exon mobil, I'm definitely a dark side of the force type) with an expiration date of 6/18 and a strike price of $45 for $1.42. On 6/18 I have the right to pay $45 for a share of XOM. To purchase this call for 100 shares, I spent $142. To break even, the share has to be at 46.42, that's my break even point. As long as it is above 45, I'm in the money (ITM), I can recoup some of my bet. If it's under 45, I lose everything.

    However, every $1 over 46.42 I make $100.

    But that's not the end of the story, I can also sell my option contract at any time and its price will rise or decline as the stock fluctuates. In fact that contract is now worth 4.11 so I could sell that for $411. Options are highly volatile, its common to see 20-30% swings on even far out expiration dates. You can even make money just trading options.

    Puts work the same way, you are buying the option to sell at a price. If it costs $2.50 to sell TSLA at 420 on 2/19, your break even is 417.50. Every dollar under that you make $100. The contract costs $250. If it doesn't crash, your money is gone.

    There is more to all this. If you have 100 shares you can sell calls or puts on your shares. You can also sell naked calls and puts, selling options on shares you don't own. Basically this lets you make money by selling derivatives on your stocks.

    I'm too chicken to put puts on TSLA though. I think rationally it makes sense as a strategy to do over the long run. Just bet 1k every month that it implodes in 6 weeks. But... I dunno. Maybe if we get that 2k stimulus.

    Bolded is untrue. When you sell options, your liability can be far higher, similar to shorting.

    Cauld on
  • AiouaAioua Ora Occidens Ora OptimaRegistered User regular
    edited January 2021
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    Doodmann wrote: »
    My current "why am I too stupid to make money" watch is Bitcoin and some stocks that are tied to bitcoin that I am trying to short because surely it wont go about 30k what madness is this...sigh

    We're all pretty sure bitcoin is propped up by black markets, right? There's enough blood money in the regular stock market. I don't need to fuck with crypto

    I generally assume that the value of bullshit currency is related to the current market for illegal goods and services and ransom.

    Cryptolocker malware is still hitting people every day.
    My mom's workplace got got. They had fucking cryptolocker insurance. There was a professional negotiator who worked with the scammers to handle the handoff. It doesn't make the news any more cause it's just a thing that happens to you these days.

    Bitcoin is some of the dirtiest money out there.

    Aioua on
    life's a game that you're bound to lose / like using a hammer to pound in screws
    fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
    that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
    bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
  • IncenjucarIncenjucar VChatter Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    Aioua wrote: »
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    Doodmann wrote: »
    My current "why am I too stupid to make money" watch is Bitcoin and some stocks that are tied to bitcoin that I am trying to short because surely it wont go about 30k what madness is this...sigh

    We're all pretty sure bitcoin is propped up by black markets, right? There's enough blood money in the regular stock market. I don't need to fuck with crypto

    I generally assume that the value of bullshit currency is related to the current market for illegal goods and services and ransom.

    Cryptolocker malware is still hitting people every day.
    My mom's workplace got got. They had fucking cryptolocker insurance. There was a professional negotiator who worked with the scammers to handle the handoff. It doesn't make the news any more cause it's just a thing that happens to you these days.

    Bitcoin is some of the dirtiest money out there.

    At this point it's becoming a pillar of the economy.

  • CauldCauld Registered User regular
    I read some analysis saying it has benefits that Gold doesn't have, including easier for retail investors to store and easier to buy/sell. Downsides are that so far it's been cyclical (counter-cyclical or stable) would be better.

  • Al_watAl_wat Registered User regular
    Every day I look at the price of Tesla shoot up, and every day I get discouraged from putting money into this market.

    I mean I guess my strategy for the time being will be: steadily buy index funds every paycheque, but also build up straight cash in my investment accounts for the inevitable (?) drop. Like logically I know I must keep buying index funds even in the face of what looks like a big equity bubble (i.e. follow the strategy of dollar cost averaging). And logically I know that building up cash is a form of market timing, which is an incorrect behavior to have (i.e. I'm expecting a drop in the market at... some point). But when the market looks like this, how can I in good conscience not keep a cash position?

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Al_wat wrote: »
    Every day I look at the price of Tesla shoot up, and every day I get discouraged from putting money into this market.

    I mean I guess my strategy for the time being will be: steadily buy index funds every paycheque, but also build up straight cash in my investment accounts for the inevitable (?) drop. Like logically I know I must keep buying index funds even in the face of what looks like a big equity bubble (i.e. follow the strategy of dollar cost averaging). And logically I know that building up cash is a form of market timing, which is an incorrect behavior to have (i.e. I'm expecting a drop in the market at... some point). But when the market looks like this, how can I in good conscience not keep a cash position?

    Focus on getting “rich” slowly

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Today's US jobs report is not good. Like moreso than normal, while this board may not be surprised by any of it, real-world folks might want to check themselves if they're not seeing these signs.

    Highlights include: A continuing loss of jobs. An estimated 140,000 when most expected to see an increase.
    The unemployment rates stayed steady at 6.7% meaning that a good chunk of people's benefits expired while many others probably dropped out of looking. Either result is troubling and a big problem.
    And the fun, fun fact that over fifteen million people reported that the pandemic is why they're not working right now.

    Happy Friday everyone!

    All economic date is effectively second order public health data at this point. It doesn't tell us anything about the underlying economy, it is telling us about the various stages of the pandemic.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Aioua wrote: »
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    Doodmann wrote: »
    My current "why am I too stupid to make money" watch is Bitcoin and some stocks that are tied to bitcoin that I am trying to short because surely it wont go about 30k what madness is this...sigh

    We're all pretty sure bitcoin is propped up by black markets, right? There's enough blood money in the regular stock market. I don't need to fuck with crypto

    I generally assume that the value of bullshit currency is related to the current market for illegal goods and services and ransom.

    Cryptolocker malware is still hitting people every day.
    My mom's workplace got got. They had fucking cryptolocker insurance. There was a professional negotiator who worked with the scammers to handle the handoff. It doesn't make the news any more cause it's just a thing that happens to you these days.

    Bitcoin is some of the dirtiest money out there.

    Bitcoin is also an environmental disaster for literally no reason at all.

  • SyphonBlueSyphonBlue The studying beaver That beaver sure loves studying!Registered User regular
    LxX6eco.jpg
    PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    READ THE ROOM JOE

    Whippy wrote: »
    nope nope nope nope abort abort talk about anime
    Sometimes I sell my stuff on Ebay
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    SyphonBlue wrote: »

    Yeah, this is gonna be the next 2 years unfortunately.

    Still better then if Democrats hadn't won Georgia at least. Hopefully they can bribe Manchin somehow or flip a Republican.

  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    That puts Biden in a tough spot RE his statements immediately prior to the Georgia runoff

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2021/01/04/bidens-final-pitch-to-georgia-vote-blue-and-2000-checks-will-go-out-the-door-immediately/?sh=4073fbee744d
    "If you send Jon and the Reverend to Washington, those $2,000 checks will go out the door, restoring hope and decency and honor for so many people who are struggling right now,"

  • AiouaAioua Ora Occidens Ora OptimaRegistered User regular
    Sigh.

    We just need Manchin to vote for DC statehood and then he can protest vote all he wants.

    life's a game that you're bound to lose / like using a hammer to pound in screws
    fuck up once and you break your thumb / if you're happy at all then you're god damn dumb
    that's right we're on a fucked up cruise / God is dead but at least we have booze
    bad things happen, no one knows why / the sun burns out and everyone dies
  • DoodmannDoodmann Registered User regular
    If they kill the fillibuster there are 50 new conservatives they can bribe instead of Joe Manchin to get stuff done.

    Whippy wrote: »
    nope nope nope nope abort abort talk about anime
    Sometimes I sell my stuff on Ebay
  • manwiththemachinegunmanwiththemachinegun METAL GEAR?! Registered User regular
    Having a long term plan.
    Not getting too greedy.
    Prayer doesn't hurt.
    Al_wat wrote: »
    Every day I look at the price of Tesla shoot up, and every day I get discouraged from putting money into this market.

    I mean I guess my strategy for the time being will be: steadily buy index funds every paycheque, but also build up straight cash in my investment accounts for the inevitable (?) drop. Like logically I know I must keep buying index funds even in the face of what looks like a big equity bubble (i.e. follow the strategy of dollar cost averaging). And logically I know that building up cash is a form of market timing, which is an incorrect behavior to have (i.e. I'm expecting a drop in the market at... some point). But when the market looks like this, how can I in good conscience not keep a cash position?

    Time in the market statistically beats timing the market. Just buy, slowly and with due diligence, but build a position with asset risks you can live with, and don't touch it.

  • SmurphSmurph Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    Doodmann wrote: »
    My current "why am I too stupid to make money" watch is Bitcoin and some stocks that are tied to bitcoin that I am trying to short because surely it wont go about 30k what madness is this...sigh

    We're all pretty sure bitcoin is propped up by black markets, right? There's enough blood money in the regular stock market. I don't need to fuck with crypto

    Not really. Black market stuff uses other crypto currencies now, not Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin is just having one of those euphoric speculative bubbles it has every few years. Stay away.

  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    Smurph wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    Doodmann wrote: »
    My current "why am I too stupid to make money" watch is Bitcoin and some stocks that are tied to bitcoin that I am trying to short because surely it wont go about 30k what madness is this...sigh

    We're all pretty sure bitcoin is propped up by black markets, right? There's enough blood money in the regular stock market. I don't need to fuck with crypto

    Not really. Black market stuff uses other crypto currencies now, not Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin is just having one of those euphoric speculative bubbles it has every few years. Stay away.

    Or go back in time a few months and buy a bunch of it to sell right now.

  • kimekime Queen of Blades Registered User regular
    SyphonBlue wrote: »

    Saw a tweet that his office clarified: he's not against the $2k, he's against the $2k being the absolute #1 first thing they do.

    Battle.net ID: kime#1822
    3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
    Steam profile
  • LucedesLucedes might be real Registered User regular
    as someone who tried to time the market this past year, uh, don't do it.
    it is significantly easier to fuck up a lot than make money.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    You should only ever 'time the market' by dollar cost averaging your investment. For a thing like your 401(k) or IRA that sort of happens automatically by spreading it out every 2 weeks/ bimonthly with your paycheck. If you are doing anything with 'fun money' or windfalls then you should set a specific dollar amount in mind to invest and shift it over in a similar sort of way. Every Wednesday/ every other Thursday/ every 15th of the Month/ whatever purchase $X.XX in shares of your index fund. Where $X.XX is whatever your investment amount is divided by 4 or 12 or whatever to spread it out over a month or a quarter, or longer if it's substantial enough.

    If you're day trading to play around with individual stocks then this is less of a concern, but you're also probably going to loose money in the long term. Either in terms of actually losing money or in terms of getting less of a return for the same investment.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    kime wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »

    Saw a tweet that his office clarified: he's not against the $2k, he's against the $2k being the absolute #1 first thing they do.

    The actual link seemed less bad then the pull quote already honestly. But this is good to hear. Either he didn't mean No or the reaction to his comment was immediately so negative he decided in retrospect he didn't mean No and either way is good.

  • asurasur Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Today's US jobs report is not good. Like moreso than normal, while this board may not be surprised by any of it, real-world folks might want to check themselves if they're not seeing these signs.

    Highlights include: A continuing loss of jobs. An estimated 140,000 when most expected to see an increase.
    The unemployment rates stayed steady at 6.7% meaning that a good chunk of people's benefits expired while many others probably dropped out of looking. Either result is troubling and a big problem.
    And the fun, fun fact that over fifteen million people reported that the pandemic is why they're not working right now.

    Happy Friday everyone!

    All economic date is effectively second order public health data at this point. It doesn't tell us anything about the underlying economy, it is telling us about the various stages of the pandemic.

    The jobs report is pretty much exactly what you would expect with the pandemic exploding. A loss of 498k jobs in leisure and hospitality and a gain of 358k for all other non farm jobs. Stimulus just passed and vaccine rollout and better weather is on the horizon so barring unexpected circumstances this is a short term economic issue. Previous wages also showed that the leisure and hospitality pops back relatively quickly. The Dems gaining the Senate should also hopefully result in aid for those impacted before the recovery.

  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    kime wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »

    Saw a tweet that his office clarified: he's not against the $2k, he's against the $2k being the absolute #1 first thing they do.

    Yeah Jeff Stein literally lied about what he said and tanked the stock market. Not the first time for Stein either.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

    pleasepaypreacher.net
  • QuidQuid Definitely not a banana Registered User regular
    I timed the market during that one massive drop early in to covid.

    I have no intention of ever doing so again and have retired with a perfect record.

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