The GeekOh-Two Crew, OmeganautRegistered User, ClubPAregular
edited January 2008
On House last night, one of the girl doctors (I don't remember if it was 13 or the other chick) was wearing some kind of necklace with a clock on it, and the only thing I could think was FLAAVAAA FLAAAAAAVVV!
On House last night, one of the girl doctors (I don't remember if it was 13 or the other chick) was wearing some kind of necklace with a clock on it, and the only thing I could think was FLAAVAAA FLAAAAAAVVV!
Isn't 13 gone? Were you watching an old episode?
Did I just spoil for you that 13 gets canned?
13 gets canned.
Framling on
you're = you are
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
I like watching Deal or No Deal, because I love watching dumb people make bad decisions.
How are any of their decisions they make bad?
I thought it was completely random
It's kinda like poker; there's a mix of chance and strategy. But everyone that goes on there has a shitty strategy.
Last week, this lady had three cases left. Two had a million dollars in them. One had, I don't know, like 400 or something. Her deal was something like $640,000. The smart thing to do was to take the fucking deal, because if she opened another case, the odds were 2 in 3 that it'd be a million dollars, and her deal would go drop some $200,000.
But she reasoned, like everyone on that show always reasons, that her case had a 2/3 chance of having a million dollars, so she picked another case. It held a million, and her deal dropped to four hundred-odd thousand, which she took. She gambled two hundred thousand dollars on a 1/3 chance, and lost.
Framling on
you're = you are
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
FramlingFaceHeadGeebs has bad ideas.Registered Userregular
edited January 2008
I actually made a C# application (more to try to learn some C# than anything else) that allows you to update case values on the fly and open or close cases and calculates the expected return.
Really, how good a deal is comes down to your expected return on subsequent rounds, which works out to the average of the expected return for each possible outcome, making it a combinatorial problem along with a statistical one.
Framling on
you're = you are
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
i also dont understand why people dont think that while there was 9 or so 1,000,000 dollar cases out there
the one she picked had a 60% chance that it wasnt $1,000,000. and it doesnt ever change throughout the game.
No, it changes. If you end up with 3 cases and a million is still up there, now you have a 1/3 chance at having a million.
I know what you're gonna say, you're gonna say "Monty Hall problem," but Monty Hall doesn't apply here because nobody knows what's in the cases before they get opened. In the Monty Hall problem, the door opener does know.
Framling on
you're = you are
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
and don't just link to wikipedia, I'm curious to here it explained by you
Three doors. One's got a car, two have donkeys. (Let's just take it as assumed you want the car. Maybe you're allergic to donkeys.) You pick a door, Monty says "But wait!" and opens one of the other doors, revealing a donkey. He gives you the opportunity to switch, do you?
If you're smart, you do. It works out to your odds of winning the car being 2/3 if you switch, 1/3 if you don't. It's conterintuitive, but it's true.
Framling on
you're = you are
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
Posts
literally. being hungry sucks
but instead i decided my $6 would be better spent on other things
mcdonalds
Get Out
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even after i've been without caffeine for like a month
however i just drank a cup of orange juice and it woke me the heck up
too bad i need to go to sleep soon
It's not good, but if I need food and I'm low on money, I'll eat there.
i don't even like the bad auditions. they're annoying and stale now
i like seeing talented people like these two.
where i shop, just about
Excellent
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yeah seriously
she never says more than two sentences at a time, and it takes her five tries to do it
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
So I'm starting Chrono Trigger, again.
Play bass. The world needs more bass players.
Or drums. Shit, anything but guitar.
man, I love that game
so much nostalgia
Second game soundtrack I ever owned.
nyoro~n
STEAM!
How are any of their decisions they make bad?
I thought it was completely random
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Isn't 13 gone? Were you watching an old episode?
Did I just spoil for you that 13 gets canned?
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
fram is constantly crunching numbers to figure out the probability of each case's contents, and whether or not the deal being offered is a sane one.
It's kinda like poker; there's a mix of chance and strategy. But everyone that goes on there has a shitty strategy.
Last week, this lady had three cases left. Two had a million dollars in them. One had, I don't know, like 400 or something. Her deal was something like $640,000. The smart thing to do was to take the fucking deal, because if she opened another case, the odds were 2 in 3 that it'd be a million dollars, and her deal would go drop some $200,000.
But she reasoned, like everyone on that show always reasons, that her case had a 2/3 chance of having a million dollars, so she picked another case. It held a million, and her deal dropped to four hundred-odd thousand, which she took. She gambled two hundred thousand dollars on a 1/3 chance, and lost.
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
watching people who get offered 600,000+ and walk away with 200,000 less than that
and almost walking away with 599,600 less
STEAM!
i love how they dont understand the whole 'push this button and we'll give you 600 grand' concept
STEAM!
Really, how good a deal is comes down to your expected return on subsequent rounds, which works out to the average of the expected return for each possible outcome, making it a combinatorial problem along with a statistical one.
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
the one she picked had a 60% chance that it wasnt $1,000,000. and it doesnt ever change throughout the game.
STEAM!
Whittiling fast reflexes and arcane knowledge to its purest form
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and wheel of fortune
STEAM!
seriously?
holy crap
how'd you do it?
stopped eating fast food
at least 7 pounds was water weight
i just run 2 miles, 3-4 times per week and i dont eat anything with a shitton of grease and stuff
lots of salad
STEAM!
No, it changes. If you end up with 3 cases and a million is still up there, now you have a 1/3 chance at having a million.
I know what you're gonna say, you're gonna say "Monty Hall problem," but Monty Hall doesn't apply here because nobody knows what's in the cases before they get opened. In the Monty Hall problem, the door opener does know.
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
Three doors. One's got a car, two have donkeys. (Let's just take it as assumed you want the car. Maybe you're allergic to donkeys.) You pick a door, Monty says "But wait!" and opens one of the other doors, revealing a donkey. He gives you the opportunity to switch, do you?
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
neato
your = belonging to you
their = belonging to them
there = not here
they're = they are
fucking yes.