That short snippet is sure written in a weird way that does not scream reliable. It'd be better if he included more references to e.g. the fact that time is a flat circle and four time corner cubes prove the bible is god's word.
I mean, it's not intellectually rigorous to see one thing on a list or how something's written and then be like "well this looks like bullshit," but "There is no explanation of why a natural epidemic should break out in Wuhan and nowhere else." is just
???
It had to break out... somewhere? And it's not the only natural epidemic to have broken out? What about like.. the first SARS that he references several times? Like I get that we should be :thonk: about coincidences, but also Wuhan is a city of eleven million people, has wet markets with random animals and people live in close proximity to bats (that's true basically everywhere, iirc), so it's exactly the kind of place I'd expect a novel virus to come from.
But again, see SARS, swine flu, MERS, any of the other could've-been pandemics lately that emerged from random points in populous nations.
I think what's supposed to be going on there is: his claim elsewhere in the article is that human interaction with the hypothesized bat reservoir is common in areas of Southern China distant from Wuhan, making it at least more surprising for the virus to jump to humans in Wuhan; he also claims that cases were identified in Wuhan that were temporally before and apparently unassociated with the wet market cases.
In any case, the answer to my question of whether this was credible was clearly and quickly answered with "no," so
I'm embarrassed I asked! I'll retire to the grotto of shame &/or contemplation.
I thought the wet market thing was mostly a red herring (i.e., the case was likely caught by a human elsewhere who went to the market), but admit I haven't really looked up on that because it's not super important to me.
I get the thought process, it just seems like really obvious... I forget what kind of bias. It reminds me a bit of the anthropic principle: this exact state of things is unlikely, so things must have been tuned to this, when it's also reasonable that sometimes stuff is just some way, as unsatisfying as it is.
It's the same sort of thing with p values, actually, with respect to statistics being backwards. "There is a low probability that chance would have generated this" doesn't actually mean that there's a low probability that this is due to chance, at least not as cleanly as people would hope. "There are other places where a thing is more likely to have occurred" doesn't strike me as convincing evidence that a thing that occurs elsewhere is special.
My thoughts are not coming out good, this is unfortunate.
That short snippet is sure written in a weird way that does not scream reliable. It'd be better if he included more references to e.g. the fact that time is a flat circle and four time corner cubes prove the bible is god's word.
I mean, it's not intellectually rigorous to see one thing on a list or how something's written and then be like "well this looks like bullshit," but "There is no explanation of why a natural epidemic should break out in Wuhan and nowhere else." is just
???
It had to break out... somewhere? And it's not the only natural epidemic to have broken out? What about like.. the first SARS that he references several times? Like I get that we should be :thonk: about coincidences, but also Wuhan is a city of eleven million people, has wet markets with random animals and people live in close proximity to bats (that's true basically everywhere, iirc), so it's exactly the kind of place I'd expect a novel virus to come from.
But again, see SARS, swine flu, MERS, any of the other could've-been pandemics lately that emerged from random points in populous nations.
I think what's supposed to be going on there is: his claim elsewhere in the article is that human interaction with the hypothesized bat reservoir is common in areas of Southern China distant from Wuhan, making it at least more surprising for the virus to jump to humans in Wuhan; he also claims that cases were identified in Wuhan that were temporally before and apparently unassociated with the wet market cases.
In any case, the answer to my question of whether this was credible was clearly and quickly answered with "no," so
I'm embarrassed I asked! I'll retire to the grotto of shame &/or contemplation.
Is that where you go to jerk it?
First one must contemplate; then one must feel shame
(yes)
+1
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TavIrish Minister for DefenceRegistered Userregular
I am fully vaccinated and Texas cases are down a ton, especially in my area, but it still feels really wrong/contentious to say "I have basically no issue going back to normal"
I ate an engineer
+1
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
apparently i've been invited to test out facebook's dating site
hmm Sungazer will be in DC next month and i'd like to see them and all that but it's on a Thursday and not even not leaving the house for anything fun for a year and a half makes me want to go up to DC on a Thursday for a show
Huh I've never heard of them but a sample of their stuff sounds cool.
@chanus I will for sure go to this (and drag lfx along) if you want to go to a concert
hmm Sungazer will be in DC next month and i'd like to see them and all that but it's on a Thursday and not even not leaving the house for anything fun for a year and a half makes me want to go up to DC on a Thursday for a show
Huh I've never heard of them but a sample of their stuff sounds cool.
chanus I will for sure go to this (and drag lfx along) if you want to go to a concert
they are really interesting! adam neely (the bass player) is a youtube guy i follow for music stuff
the DC run on a weekday is a real bummer though. i don't get home til like 1:00am, which is rough having to work in the morning, and i'm honestly not sure i could stay awake for the drive back anymore haha
Allegedly a voice of reason.
+1
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
A Kobold's Family's Medical Drama: Final Chapter Epilogue – The Coroner Report Finally Came In
The coroner, after months and a change of regime because the previous guy was thrown in jail, found that Mom had lethal levels of both codeine and morphine in her system at the time of her death. This was the outcome that I expected the most, and a hard confirmation that Mom was an addict.
I personally am doing a lot better now that Mom's not in my life any more. While Dad and I are in limbo w/r/t insurance at the moment, I have been to a therapist a couple of times. Which is a step in the right direction, at least. I still wouldn't call my position 'good' since I'm in a really indolent and non-independent situation right now, I now have the ability to focus on myself instead of worrying about the well-being of somebody else. Which feels good.
the repairperson came to fix my fridge today and the replacement part (which was not covered under the home warranty of course) was doa
when asked when he thought a new part might arrive, he was just like ???? so rip my chilled and frozen food dreams
i'm pretty sure home warranties are just a scam
perhaps not the concept of a warrenty itself, but the total disregard of repairman.
I had a refrigerator that would not cool; there was no dust collection at the fans, the compressor appeared to be functioning correctly, and there was coolant in the system.
Guy did no sort of diagnostic, just saw a part he could replace, said it was the problem, and charged me 150 for the privilege. On top of the 70 the warranty company collects. Guess what, refrigerator still didnt work afterwards.
Today was a nice day off but I am afraid to look at my emails.
Started with left over hot pot we made last night. Rice, lots of veggies, some shrimp, and beef. Then a 3 mile hike in Maryland that ended at a waterfall. Then a short trip to a Hawaiian restaurant in the sketchiest strip mall ever near Baltimore. Which then was eating delicious unhealthy Hawaiian food while sitting on the trunk of the Subaru. Now a shower and SNL and the rest of the Hawaiian food and a nice long nap.
I also fully understand why Hawaii has issues with obesity and diabetes. That shit ain't light.
I have yet to have Hawaiian food. I think we’re saving that for the other side of the island.
hmm Sungazer will be in DC next month and i'd like to see them and all that but it's on a Thursday and not even not leaving the house for anything fun for a year and a half makes me want to go up to DC on a Thursday for a show
Huh I've never heard of them but a sample of their stuff sounds cool.
chanus I will for sure go to this (and drag lfx along) if you want to go to a concert
they are really interesting! adam neely (the bass player) is a youtube guy i follow for music stuff
the DC run on a weekday is a real bummer though. i don't get home til like 1:00am, which is rough having to work in the morning, and i'm honestly not sure i could stay awake for the drive back anymore haha
Take a vacation day, chanus. You deserve it
+3
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
hmm Sungazer will be in DC next month and i'd like to see them and all that but it's on a Thursday and not even not leaving the house for anything fun for a year and a half makes me want to go up to DC on a Thursday for a show
Huh I've never heard of them but a sample of their stuff sounds cool.
chanus I will for sure go to this (and drag lfx along) if you want to go to a concert
they are really interesting! adam neely (the bass player) is a youtube guy i follow for music stuff
the DC run on a weekday is a real bummer though. i don't get home til like 1:00am, which is rough having to work in the morning, and i'm honestly not sure i could stay awake for the drive back anymore haha
Take a vacation day, chanus. You deserve it
i'm planning to take the week off two weeks later haha
hmm Sungazer will be in DC next month and i'd like to see them and all that but it's on a Thursday and not even not leaving the house for anything fun for a year and a half makes me want to go up to DC on a Thursday for a show
Huh I've never heard of them but a sample of their stuff sounds cool.
chanus I will for sure go to this (and drag lfx along) if you want to go to a concert
they are really interesting! adam neely (the bass player) is a youtube guy i follow for music stuff
the DC run on a weekday is a real bummer though. i don't get home til like 1:00am, which is rough having to work in the morning, and i'm honestly not sure i could stay awake for the drive back anymore haha
Take a vacation day, chanus. You deserve it
i'm planning to take the week off two weeks later haha
I wouldn't feel bad doing it; in fact I would enjoy doing it
I can call in and act as you, like how Jim Dolan cowers behind a fixer who fires people for him
Eddy on
"and the morning stars I have seen
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
Posts
I thought the wet market thing was mostly a red herring (i.e., the case was likely caught by a human elsewhere who went to the market), but admit I haven't really looked up on that because it's not super important to me.
I get the thought process, it just seems like really obvious... I forget what kind of bias. It reminds me a bit of the anthropic principle: this exact state of things is unlikely, so things must have been tuned to this, when it's also reasonable that sometimes stuff is just some way, as unsatisfying as it is.
It's the same sort of thing with p values, actually, with respect to statistics being backwards. "There is a low probability that chance would have generated this" doesn't actually mean that there's a low probability that this is due to chance, at least not as cleanly as people would hope. "There are other places where a thing is more likely to have occurred" doesn't strike me as convincing evidence that a thing that occurs elsewhere is special.
My thoughts are not coming out good, this is unfortunate.
First one must contemplate; then one must feel shame
(yes)
"8th Cat Acquired In Hopes Of Easing Tension Between First 7 Cats"
That's how it works, right? You get more cats to stabilize the number of cats you already have.
That's just my usual twitter timeline
What are your feelings on having freaking laser beams installed.
Sign me up.
i can't think of a more horrible idea
like probably a worse idea than instagram kids
A+
Please sir can I have some more.
Huh I've never heard of them but a sample of their stuff sounds cool.
@chanus I will for sure go to this (and drag lfx along) if you want to go to a concert
According to game theory an even number of cats is a stable endgame, assuming that cats are hyperrational
Which they are so it all works out, no more questions
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
they are really interesting! adam neely (the bass player) is a youtube guy i follow for music stuff
the DC run on a weekday is a real bummer though. i don't get home til like 1:00am, which is rough having to work in the morning, and i'm honestly not sure i could stay awake for the drive back anymore haha
i mean yes
that would possibly be a red card
still wrong!
Oh thank god I was beginning to reverse my opinion that Dan Harmon might be garbage.
the repairperson came to fix my fridge today and the replacement part (which was not covered under the home warranty of course) was doa
when asked when he thought a new part might arrive, he was just like ???? so rip my chilled and frozen food dreams
i'm pretty sure home warranties are just a scam
We went to a botanical garden and were told we could take masks off when inside but put them back on if getting close to someone else.
We followed that advice but not a single other person we passed did.
Godspeed
We wore masks when indoors today even though it isn't required in VA or DC.
Just more comfortable wearing it at least for now.
I don't watch cricket.
I think in general you are right
we had one in atlanta that waaaaay paid for itself with a bunch of repairs to our a/c units but this one has covered like, part of a plumber's visit
they sure are thirsty to have us renew tho, despite providing little value and being a pain in the ass to work with
Put that racist marine (Ashley) back in her fucking place
I personally am doing a lot better now that Mom's not in my life any more. While Dad and I are in limbo w/r/t insurance at the moment, I have been to a therapist a couple of times. Which is a step in the right direction, at least. I still wouldn't call my position 'good' since I'm in a really indolent and non-independent situation right now, I now have the ability to focus on myself instead of worrying about the well-being of somebody else. Which feels good.
until you get 9, they'll all believe that when the fight breaks out one of them will still have a life left over.
perhaps not the concept of a warrenty itself, but the total disregard of repairman.
I had a refrigerator that would not cool; there was no dust collection at the fans, the compressor appeared to be functioning correctly, and there was coolant in the system.
Guy did no sort of diagnostic, just saw a part he could replace, said it was the problem, and charged me 150 for the privilege. On top of the 70 the warranty company collects. Guess what, refrigerator still didnt work afterwards.
I have yet to have Hawaiian food. I think we’re saving that for the other side of the island.
Take a vacation day, chanus. You deserve it
i'm planning to take the week off two weeks later haha
I wouldn't feel bad doing it; in fact I would enjoy doing it
I can call in and act as you, like how Jim Dolan cowers behind a fixer who fires people for him
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin