In positive covid news, and a number I hadn’t tracked for a while, the world has now sustained giving out 35-40 million doses a day for two months. This is enough protection for even the most miserable imagined version of the future where we all need a new vaccine dose every 6 months (1 dose every 197 days for every person alive at current rates of dosing)
Ramp it a bit more and we’ll soon be talking about convincing the vaccine hesitant in Africa, rather than just the USA.
"That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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Kane Red RobeMaster of MagicArcanusRegistered Userregular
edited August 2021
Oh boy, soon the CIA can pose as Covid vaccine distributors instead of polio!
Edit: That is to say, there's going to be a lot of vaccine hesitancy out there and much of it will be for fair reasons
Oh boy, soon the CIA can pose as Covid vaccine distributors instead of polio!
Edit: That is to say, there's going to be a lot of vaccine hesitancy out there and much of it will be for fair reasons
My point is not that it will be easy to persuade everyone to do the right and logical thing, but that we have shows that we can at least get to that point where persuasion is the problem everywhere, and inside 6 months everyone in the world should be able to get their first shots, even if rich nations decide to offer boosters to everyone. Or both their shots if they don't, and hopefully the rate of production will rise further (blooming big plastic bags, and blooming novavax)
“Lambda variant shows vaccine resistance in lab” is one of the more terrifying phrases I’ve ever read. Goodness, sometimes the tragedy of how preventable this moment was is overwhelming. https://t.co/KzqYzwpFcx
From the article
The Lambda variant of the coronavirus, first identified in Peru and now spreading in South America, is highly infectious and more resistant to vaccines than the original version of the virus the emerged from Wuhan, China, Japanese researchers have found.
. . .
Although it is not clear yet whether this variant is more dangerous than the Delta now threatening populations in many countries, senior researcher Kei Sato of the University of Tokyo believes "Lambda can be a potential threat to the human society."
The link is sort of 3 mini-articles, here's the headlines for the other two:
Delta breakthrough infections likely contagious
Third mRNA dose may boost antibody quantity, but not quality
The General Secretary of the German Society of Immunology (bit of a mouthful) says that the media is over-hyping the Lambda study. According to him the data the pre-print doesn't actually show what you would call immune resistance. It's more infectious than the original version but less so than Delta and breakthrough capability is also lower than Delta according to the shown data.
Seriously, it's been a year + of coverage and everyday it's like:
Local news: here's the cases count in the counties in our coverage area. Here's the state totals. New cases, total, deaths. Here's how many have gotten one and both shots
National news: concerns about (issue of the day) as cases rise in (random number of states), including (random percentage) increase in (random location) over the past two weeks. Here's the vaccination numbers nation wide
There's almost never any context to make the numbers really mean anything. __% increase from what? We're at ___% of fully vaccinated nation wide, but what's the change in rate? What were the numbers on the graphic yesterday/last week/last month for comparison? Etc etc
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
edited August 2021
The only silver lining is that Pfizer and Moderna are working on targeted boosters for Delta and Sigma. I think that will help with lambda as well.
There’s also some evidence showing that those who’ve had Covid, their antibodies mutate in a way favorable to fighting the newer variants. But there isn’t enough data on that yet.
You forgot the obligatory __ number of breakthrough cases reported (normalized to what?) Here's family bbq where a bunch got sick. Here's a case of one person who had really bad outcomes. Here's a bunch of meaningless bullshit a bunch of idiots (usually politicians or their adjacents) think of things ("concerning" comes up a lot).
Oh boy, soon the CIA can pose as Covid vaccine distributors instead of polio!
Edit: That is to say, there's going to be a lot of vaccine hesitancy out there and much of it will be for fair reasons
Not to excuse the CIA, but also "fair reasons" is a bit of a reach. The CIA doesn't give a shit about 99.99% of the people in the world. The CIA didn't cook up Covid to have an excuse to do *Something* to random subsistence farmer in Namibia or where ever, just like it isn't doing it for random mid level manager in Boise.
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ShivahnUnaware of her barrel shifter privilegeWestern coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderatormod
And you guys had been doing so well at separating news and discussion lately!
New study showing some good news perhaps. A look at a significant amount of genetic sequences shows that Covid may not partake in significant recombination.
But pointed out in the discussion thread:
Virus evolution during a pandemic is a fast-moving target, so that, unavoidably, aspects of this analysis will be outdated by the time of publication. Nevertheless, several trends revealed here appear general and robust. Although it is difficult to ascertain positive selection for individual sites, the overall adaptive character of SARS-CoV-2 evolution involving multiple amino acid replacements appears to be beyond reasonable doubt. As expected, there are multiple positively selected sites in the S protein, but, more surprisingly, N protein includes several sites that appear to be strongly selected as well. The involvement of these adaptive substitutions in the nuclear localization of the N protein appears likely. Importantly, some of the mutations, for which positive selection was inferred, cooccur on multiple occasions and seem to form a robust epistatic network. Most likely, the effect of positive selection is manifested primarily at the level of epistatic interactions.
Clearly, despite the dramatic reduction in global travel (76), the evolution of SARS-Cov-2 is partly shaped by globalizing factors, including the increased virus fitness conferred by S|D614G, N|R203K&G204R, and other positively selected amino acid substitutions. However, we obtained strong evidence of both continuous virus diversification within geographic regions and “speciation,” that is, formation of stable, diverging, region-specific variants. This ongoing adaptive diversification could substantially prolong the pandemic and the vaccination campaign, in which variant-specific vaccines are likely to be required.
Ok, let's see if this works. Urg, it doesn't work. Here is a link? Regardless, the Data is for san Diego County for the month before 8/10/2021. Fully vaccinated hospitalizations = 13
Not fully vaccinated = 521
This is from the san Diego County health department over the last four weeks. San Diego has (and has had over the monitored period) a bit more than 50% of the population vaccinated. San Diego has been experiencing Delta for this whole period.
The clever thing san Diego has done is broken out people who actually are in hospital because of covid, not like, old vaccinated people who broke a leg while they had covid, or young people who have appendicitis and covid. These are people who are in the hospital because of Covid.
The vaccinated group, it should be noted contains the overwhelming majority of sick and old people. The unvaccinated group contains every child under 12 and most people under 18. The vaccinated group is BIGGER and this data is not corrected for that. This ratio should be 3-1 against the vaccinated. Instead, it's 40-1 in their favor.
Vaccines work, even against Delta. If you are vaccinated, the greatest risk Delta poses to you right now is that you may infect someone you are trying to shield, or that you may get sick with something ELSE and die because the hospitals are full of unvaccinated idiots. Get vaccinated, and avoid the unvaccinated. Don't think that this is going to be endless. Your immune system knows what is going on here. This is not back to step 1 of our battle with covid.
(and, I should let you know that the fact that this is still looking this good without adjusting for population demographics is ASTOUNDING)
All numbers per 100k from August 25th to 31st. Nearly every case Delta.
Un-Vaccinated
55.7 cases leading to 1.42 hospitalizations (1-39)
Vaccinated
6 cases leading to 0.04 hospitalizations (1-150)
Even if you assume ALL of the reduction in cases in the vaccinated is from the vaccinated being careful, rich and lucky then the vaccinated (even after they get infected) still have ~74% risk reduction vs hospitalization. And, thats with no demographic effects considered (simpsons paradox) AND assuming there is no protection from infection at all.
Edit - corrected reverse of vaccinated/unvaccinated
(and, I should let you know that the fact that this is still looking this good without adjusting for population demographics is ASTOUNDING)
All numbers per 100k from August 25th to 31st. Nearly every case Delta.
Vaccinated
55.7 cases leading to 1.42 hospitalizations (1-39)
Unvaccinated
6 cases leading to 0.04 hospitalizations (1-150)
Even if you assume ALL of the reduction in cases in the vaccinated is from the vaccinated being careful, rich and lucky then the vaccinated (even after they get infected) still have ~74% risk reduction vs hospitalization. And, thats with no demographic effects considered (simpsons paradox) AND assuming there is no protection from infection at all.
This is reversed from what the data says? I think it’s a typo in your post. But yeah, the tl;dr is vaccination works.
Research completed: J&J vaccine benefits from a booster at 8 months. This isn't a guideline from the CDC or anything yet, but that's in progress.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
The official COVID-19 death toll in the US (at least by Johns Hopkins' count) has exceeded 675,000, the standard estimate of the number who died in the Spanish flu pandemic in the US.
Sure, the Spanish flu happened during a time when the US population was a lot smaller. They also didn't have a vaccine or medicine that worked in any way. We have a vaccine and the current number is still going up. Also, that official death toll is smaller than the actual death toll - the excess deaths in the US since the pandemic began are approaching 900,000. We actually passed the Spanish flu toll some time ago.
Posts
In positive covid news, and a number I hadn’t tracked for a while, the world has now sustained giving out 35-40 million doses a day for two months. This is enough protection for even the most miserable imagined version of the future where we all need a new vaccine dose every 6 months (1 dose every 197 days for every person alive at current rates of dosing)
Ramp it a bit more and we’ll soon be talking about convincing the vaccine hesitant in Africa, rather than just the USA.
Edit: That is to say, there's going to be a lot of vaccine hesitancy out there and much of it will be for fair reasons
My point is not that it will be easy to persuade everyone to do the right and logical thing, but that we have shows that we can at least get to that point where persuasion is the problem everywhere, and inside 6 months everyone in the world should be able to get their first shots, even if rich nations decide to offer boosters to everyone. Or both their shots if they don't, and hopefully the rate of production will rise further (blooming big plastic bags, and blooming novavax)
Well, in case the rest of you would like to get in on that feeling...Olivia Messer is a Texan journalist, sharing a link to a Reuters story.
The link is sort of 3 mini-articles, here's the headlines for the other two:
Local news: here's the cases count in the counties in our coverage area. Here's the state totals. New cases, total, deaths. Here's how many have gotten one and both shots
National news: concerns about (issue of the day) as cases rise in (random number of states), including (random percentage) increase in (random location) over the past two weeks. Here's the vaccination numbers nation wide
There's almost never any context to make the numbers really mean anything. __% increase from what? We're at ___% of fully vaccinated nation wide, but what's the change in rate? What were the numbers on the graphic yesterday/last week/last month for comparison? Etc etc
There’s also some evidence showing that those who’ve had Covid, their antibodies mutate in a way favorable to fighting the newer variants. But there isn’t enough data on that yet.
Not to excuse the CIA, but also "fair reasons" is a bit of a reach. The CIA doesn't give a shit about 99.99% of the people in the world. The CIA didn't cook up Covid to have an excuse to do *Something* to random subsistence farmer in Namibia or where ever, just like it isn't doing it for random mid level manager in Boise.
New study showing some good news perhaps. A look at a significant amount of genetic sequences shows that Covid may not partake in significant recombination.
But pointed out in the discussion thread:
We do have work to do.
Ok, let's see if this works. Urg, it doesn't work. Here is a link? Regardless, the Data is for san Diego County for the month before 8/10/2021. Fully vaccinated hospitalizations = 13
Not fully vaccinated = 521
https://mobile.twitter.com/SanDiegoCounty/status/1425909612239196162
This is from the san Diego County health department over the last four weeks. San Diego has (and has had over the monitored period) a bit more than 50% of the population vaccinated. San Diego has been experiencing Delta for this whole period.
The clever thing san Diego has done is broken out people who actually are in hospital because of covid, not like, old vaccinated people who broke a leg while they had covid, or young people who have appendicitis and covid. These are people who are in the hospital because of Covid.
The vaccinated group, it should be noted contains the overwhelming majority of sick and old people. The unvaccinated group contains every child under 12 and most people under 18. The vaccinated group is BIGGER and this data is not corrected for that. This ratio should be 3-1 against the vaccinated. Instead, it's 40-1 in their favor.
Vaccines work, even against Delta. If you are vaccinated, the greatest risk Delta poses to you right now is that you may infect someone you are trying to shield, or that you may get sick with something ELSE and die because the hospitals are full of unvaccinated idiots. Get vaccinated, and avoid the unvaccinated. Don't think that this is going to be endless. Your immune system knows what is going on here. This is not back to step 1 of our battle with covid.
San Diego county updates again
(and, I should let you know that the fact that this is still looking this good without adjusting for population demographics is ASTOUNDING)
All numbers per 100k from August 25th to 31st. Nearly every case Delta.
Un-Vaccinated
55.7 cases leading to 1.42 hospitalizations (1-39)
Vaccinated
6 cases leading to 0.04 hospitalizations (1-150)
Even if you assume ALL of the reduction in cases in the vaccinated is from the vaccinated being careful, rich and lucky then the vaccinated (even after they get infected) still have ~74% risk reduction vs hospitalization. And, thats with no demographic effects considered (simpsons paradox) AND assuming there is no protection from infection at all.
Edit - corrected reverse of vaccinated/unvaccinated
Edit: thanks for correcting it!
That’s an oops there for sure!
Research completed: J&J vaccine benefits from a booster at 8 months. This isn't a guideline from the CDC or anything yet, but that's in progress.
Sure, the Spanish flu happened during a time when the US population was a lot smaller. They also didn't have a vaccine or medicine that worked in any way. We have a vaccine and the current number is still going up. Also, that official death toll is smaller than the actual death toll - the excess deaths in the US since the pandemic began are approaching 900,000. We actually passed the Spanish flu toll some time ago.