- Oregon wins out and beats Utah (again) or (maybe) Arizona State in the Pac-12 CG, they're in the Playoff, no question.
- Houston getting in the rankings should bolster Cincinnati's chances to get in the Playoff, provided they both win out and meet in the AAC CG.
- Still not convinced Notre Dame has enough to punch through; just not enough quality wins and no conference championship game.
- How zany and/or OP is the SEC West (at least in the eyes of the Committee)? Look no further than #25 Mississippi State, the first 4-loss team to make a CFP appearance this season. They are also team #3 out of 7 in the West, ahead of #16 Texas A&M, previously ranked Auburn, and #21 Arkansas. Heck, I'm surprised the Committee didn't figure out a way to tie both Auburn and Mississippi State for the 25th spot just so we can have six ranked West teams.
- Wake Forest is the small, speedy running back about to hit the giant line of scrimmage made up of the Big Ten East and the Big 12 Top 3: If just enough chaos ensues within the line, Wake makes the right move (read: wins out), and a ranked Pittsburgh team in the ACC CG pushes them through the line, the Demon Deacons may find themselves in the secondary and in the conversation for a Playoff spot. In simpler terms, I'm not counting out Wake Forest just yet.
I'm not sure how anyone can watch as MSU barely scrapes by the bottom of the B1G east while OSU blows everyone out and think MSU stands a chance. ESPN has OSU at 86% chance of winning which seems about right.
Michigan, who knows. The real rivalry game and I'd imagine both teams will be getting pumped for it. 60/40 seems fair in that one.
The walk-on for KU that scored the winning 2pt conversion (his first ever offensive snap) is getting some NIL love. I'm super happy for him, even if he is a dirty bird.
I'm not sure how anyone can watch as MSU barely scrapes by the bottom of the B1G east while OSU blows everyone out and think MSU stands a chance. ESPN has OSU at 86% chance of winning which seems about right.
Michigan, who knows. The real rivalry game and I'd imagine both teams will be getting pumped for it. 60/40 seems fair in that one.
This is putting a lot on Hutchinson and Ojabo. Who are unholy terrors, obviously, but I do not trust our corners except maybe Turner. And our passing game against not-MSU is not great.
Really our only chance is keep everything in front of us, make it a low number of possession style game, and hope Hutchinson/Ojabo force at least two turnovers while Michigan commits none.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
WEEK 12: SOMEHOW THE ACC AND BIG 12 GOT ELIMINATED BEFORE THE PAC-12
Straight Up
Iowa State @ #13 Oklahoma (-4) - God damn Oklahoma is kind of broken right now, huh? Spencer Rattler proved repeatedly that he was not it this year, and while Caleb Williams looked good to start, he proved inadequate against the first good team he's faced this year. Throw in a defense that is merely ok, and this is a problem. The one thing going for them in this game is that Iowa State coach Matt Campbell doesn't care about winning the conference and is possibly looking at other jobs.
#10 Wake Forest @ Clemson (-4) - Just looking at the names and rankings for this game is breaking my brain, and yes I have been paying attention all season so I know Wake Forest has a ridiculous offense and Clemson is butts.
UCLA (-3) @ A Bunch of Fart Smellers - Folks, I don't know if I have the patience to do it this year. Football has been a trying experience for my beloved UCLA Bruins, who are simultaneously better than they've ever been under Chip Kelly and still far worse than they really should be. The defense is a disaster, the offense experiments when it should focus on making good plays, and the coaching staff does not understand what recruiting is. And across town, Southern Cal already fired real-life Create-a-Character Clay Helton, which does nothing to discount that this school is still deeply, deeply fucked up at an institutional level. After all, how else do you describe a fraternity president that sexually assaults people while the administration refuses to tell anyone about it for a month and tries to hide it as a line item in their monthly crime report? Or the fact that if you Google search "USC Dean Scandal" you get multiple stories involving DIFFERENT deans getting arrested and charged in various illegal activities from the past year?
But really, my patience for this rivalry has just dried up because both teams are bad and do not appear to be getting better anytime soon. It lowers the animosity down by degrees when this happens, especially because both sides just want the season to be over. It's so bad that I don't even have a plan for how I'm going to watch this game at the moment! I might end up at the game with a cheap ticket just because I'm bored. Anyway, this all sucks, go Bruins, fuck SC, yadda yadda.
California (-1.5) @ Stanford - THE BIG GAME, which also sucks this year but at least now has the added fun drama of deciding whether or not Justin Wilcox will leave Berkeley to go to Washington. David Shaw will still not be fired despite Stanford very much being locked into the Coaching Death Spiral.
Against the Spread
#7 Michigan State @ #4 Ohio State (-18.5) - If this game was a few weeks earlier, it would have been a likely shoo-in for Game of the Week. Alas, with The Game coming next week we didn't want to feature Ohio State in that spot two weeks in a row. We're just following in the footsteps of the College Football Playoffs, which showed that beating Michigan doesn't actually count for anything.
#21 Arkansas @ #2 Alabama (-20.5) - Hilariously enough, there is the possibility that a six-way tie can still occur in the SEC West. Let's take a look at what we would need to have happen:
Now, on its face, there's some stuff here that seems reasonable. Ole Miss and Auburn should beat Vandy and South Carolina respectively, Texas A&M should realistically beat LSU, Egg Bowl is weird enough that Mississippi State winning isn't a crazy ask, and the Iron Bowl is the Iron Bowl. The biggest ask really looks to be this game and whether Alabama can survive a good old-fashioned WHOMPIN. If Alabama is ever going to rise up and be an actual legitimate title contender instead of the team ranked at #2 because their name is Alabama, then this would be the time to show it.
Nebraska @ #15 Wisconsin (-9.5) - The Badgers have been quietly good since losing 3 of their first 4 to start the year. It's not because Graham Mertz has suddenly become good at quarterback - he's still awful - but the Wisconsin defense has risen to the occasion and the rushing attack has rounded into form. Still, this team feels vulnerable, and Nebraska really needs to win one of these games, if only to justify the extension that was given out on Scott Frost Day.
Southern Methodist @ #5 Cincinnati (-11.5) - One of the last few games where Cincy can actually look good against a decent opponent, but much like with Cal/Stanford, who knows how dialed in SMU will be considering the TCU wagons are circling around Sonny Dykes.
SICKOS GAME OF THE WEEK
Purdue (-10.5) vs. Northwestern (@Chicago, IL) - Purdue is back in its comfort zone of being unranked. Northwestern.....boy it really feels like the wheels may be coming off here. I'm sure Pat "Unions Are Socialism" Fitzgerald has a plan to turn this around, but I would rather watch him explode a few more times and then go off to fuck over the Chicago Bears or some shit. Also this game is being played at Wrigley Field, if you're wondering how and why this thing is qualifying for Sickos Game. Putting an average team and a bad team in a baseball stadium to play football is some prime Sickos behavior from the Big Ten.
GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK (Straight Up)
#3 Oregon @ #23 Utah (-3) - Oregon has three games remaining this season (ok, technically two, but we'll just go ahead and slot them into the Pac-12 Championship already), and this is by far the hardest of the three. Playing at altitude in Utah is never easy, especially for a team that loves to be flashy like Oregon. That said, this Utah team DID just struggle with Arizona, and they are pretty vulnerable in a way that Oregon can take advantage of. This is likely a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game, but it is way more of a must-win for Oregon if they want to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
I'm not sure how anyone can watch as MSU barely scrapes by the bottom of the B1G east while OSU blows everyone out and think MSU stands a chance. ESPN has OSU at 86% chance of winning which seems about right.
Michigan, who knows. The real rivalry game and I'd imagine both teams will be getting pumped for it. 60/40 seems fair in that one.
OSU hasn’t blown everyone out- they’ve blown out like Indiana and Maryland etc, could have lost to a not-incompetent PSU or Nebraska, and gave up a bajillion yards and points to Purdue. They are inexperienced and still kind of untested. Also I just think MSUs strengths on offense line up perfectly with OSUs defensive deficiencies. I think there could be 90 points scored ::checks Columbus weather for Saturday:: yep crisp but clear, about right for 800 combined air yards.
For Michigan, I’m mostly just worried about Hutchinson hitting Stroud early and often- freshman QB in his 11th college game playing Michigan most likely for the B1GE crown, with a true freshman RB release valve- anything could happen.
OSU has like 20 guys who will be taken in the first 100 picks of each of the next 2 NFL drafts, but only has like 10 guys on the whole roster that saw any meaningful action last year. I don’t think they can surprise me whether they lose their last 3 games or win their last 5.
Posts
# of Ranked Undefeated Teams: 3
# of CFP Top 10 One-Loss Teams: 8
# of Week 12 head-to-head CFP ranked matchups: 3
Random thoughts:
- Oregon wins out and beats Utah (again) or (maybe) Arizona State in the Pac-12 CG, they're in the Playoff, no question.
- Houston getting in the rankings should bolster Cincinnati's chances to get in the Playoff, provided they both win out and meet in the AAC CG.
- Still not convinced Notre Dame has enough to punch through; just not enough quality wins and no conference championship game.
- How zany and/or OP is the SEC West (at least in the eyes of the Committee)? Look no further than #25 Mississippi State, the first 4-loss team to make a CFP appearance this season. They are also team #3 out of 7 in the West, ahead of #16 Texas A&M, previously ranked Auburn, and #21 Arkansas. Heck, I'm surprised the Committee didn't figure out a way to tie both Auburn and Mississippi State for the 25th spot just so we can have six ranked West teams.
- Wake Forest is the small, speedy running back about to hit the giant line of scrimmage made up of the Big Ten East and the Big 12 Top 3: If just enough chaos ensues within the line, Wake makes the right move (read: wins out), and a ranked Pittsburgh team in the ACC CG pushes them through the line, the Demon Deacons may find themselves in the secondary and in the conversation for a Playoff spot. In simpler terms, I'm not counting out Wake Forest just yet.
Michigan, who knows. The real rivalry game and I'd imagine both teams will be getting pumped for it. 60/40 seems fair in that one.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32647650/kansas-jayhawks-fb-jared-casey-lands-nil-deals-following-game-winning-heroics-vs-texas-longhorns
This is putting a lot on Hutchinson and Ojabo. Who are unholy terrors, obviously, but I do not trust our corners except maybe Turner. And our passing game against not-MSU is not great.
Really our only chance is keep everything in front of us, make it a low number of possession style game, and hope Hutchinson/Ojabo force at least two turnovers while Michigan commits none.
Straight Up
Iowa State @ #13 Oklahoma (-4) - God damn Oklahoma is kind of broken right now, huh? Spencer Rattler proved repeatedly that he was not it this year, and while Caleb Williams looked good to start, he proved inadequate against the first good team he's faced this year. Throw in a defense that is merely ok, and this is a problem. The one thing going for them in this game is that Iowa State coach Matt Campbell doesn't care about winning the conference and is possibly looking at other jobs.
#10 Wake Forest @ Clemson (-4) - Just looking at the names and rankings for this game is breaking my brain, and yes I have been paying attention all season so I know Wake Forest has a ridiculous offense and Clemson is butts.
UCLA (-3) @ A Bunch of Fart Smellers - Folks, I don't know if I have the patience to do it this year. Football has been a trying experience for my beloved UCLA Bruins, who are simultaneously better than they've ever been under Chip Kelly and still far worse than they really should be. The defense is a disaster, the offense experiments when it should focus on making good plays, and the coaching staff does not understand what recruiting is. And across town, Southern Cal already fired real-life Create-a-Character Clay Helton, which does nothing to discount that this school is still deeply, deeply fucked up at an institutional level. After all, how else do you describe a fraternity president that sexually assaults people while the administration refuses to tell anyone about it for a month and tries to hide it as a line item in their monthly crime report? Or the fact that if you Google search "USC Dean Scandal" you get multiple stories involving DIFFERENT deans getting arrested and charged in various illegal activities from the past year?
But really, my patience for this rivalry has just dried up because both teams are bad and do not appear to be getting better anytime soon. It lowers the animosity down by degrees when this happens, especially because both sides just want the season to be over. It's so bad that I don't even have a plan for how I'm going to watch this game at the moment! I might end up at the game with a cheap ticket just because I'm bored. Anyway, this all sucks, go Bruins, fuck SC, yadda yadda.
California (-1.5) @ Stanford - THE BIG GAME, which also sucks this year but at least now has the added fun drama of deciding whether or not Justin Wilcox will leave Berkeley to go to Washington. David Shaw will still not be fired despite Stanford very much being locked into the Coaching Death Spiral.
Against the Spread
#7 Michigan State @ #4 Ohio State (-18.5) - If this game was a few weeks earlier, it would have been a likely shoo-in for Game of the Week. Alas, with The Game coming next week we didn't want to feature Ohio State in that spot two weeks in a row. We're just following in the footsteps of the College Football Playoffs, which showed that beating Michigan doesn't actually count for anything.
#21 Arkansas @ #2 Alabama (-20.5) - Hilariously enough, there is the possibility that a six-way tie can still occur in the SEC West. Let's take a look at what we would need to have happen:
Now, on its face, there's some stuff here that seems reasonable. Ole Miss and Auburn should beat Vandy and South Carolina respectively, Texas A&M should realistically beat LSU, Egg Bowl is weird enough that Mississippi State winning isn't a crazy ask, and the Iron Bowl is the Iron Bowl. The biggest ask really looks to be this game and whether Alabama can survive a good old-fashioned WHOMPIN. If Alabama is ever going to rise up and be an actual legitimate title contender instead of the team ranked at #2 because their name is Alabama, then this would be the time to show it.
Nebraska @ #15 Wisconsin (-9.5) - The Badgers have been quietly good since losing 3 of their first 4 to start the year. It's not because Graham Mertz has suddenly become good at quarterback - he's still awful - but the Wisconsin defense has risen to the occasion and the rushing attack has rounded into form. Still, this team feels vulnerable, and Nebraska really needs to win one of these games, if only to justify the extension that was given out on Scott Frost Day.
Southern Methodist @ #5 Cincinnati (-11.5) - One of the last few games where Cincy can actually look good against a decent opponent, but much like with Cal/Stanford, who knows how dialed in SMU will be considering the TCU wagons are circling around Sonny Dykes.
SICKOS GAME OF THE WEEK
Purdue (-10.5) vs. Northwestern (@Chicago, IL) - Purdue is back in its comfort zone of being unranked. Northwestern.....boy it really feels like the wheels may be coming off here. I'm sure Pat "Unions Are Socialism" Fitzgerald has a plan to turn this around, but I would rather watch him explode a few more times and then go off to fuck over the Chicago Bears or some shit. Also this game is being played at Wrigley Field, if you're wondering how and why this thing is qualifying for Sickos Game. Putting an average team and a bad team in a baseball stadium to play football is some prime Sickos behavior from the Big Ten.
GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK (Straight Up)
#3 Oregon @ #23 Utah (-3) - Oregon has three games remaining this season (ok, technically two, but we'll just go ahead and slot them into the Pac-12 Championship already), and this is by far the hardest of the three. Playing at altitude in Utah is never easy, especially for a team that loves to be flashy like Oregon. That said, this Utah team DID just struggle with Arizona, and they are pretty vulnerable in a way that Oregon can take advantage of. This is likely a preview of the Pac-12 Championship Game, but it is way more of a must-win for Oregon if they want to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
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OSU hasn’t blown everyone out- they’ve blown out like Indiana and Maryland etc, could have lost to a not-incompetent PSU or Nebraska, and gave up a bajillion yards and points to Purdue. They are inexperienced and still kind of untested. Also I just think MSUs strengths on offense line up perfectly with OSUs defensive deficiencies. I think there could be 90 points scored ::checks Columbus weather for Saturday:: yep crisp but clear, about right for 800 combined air yards.
For Michigan, I’m mostly just worried about Hutchinson hitting Stroud early and often- freshman QB in his 11th college game playing Michigan most likely for the B1GE crown, with a true freshman RB release valve- anything could happen.
OSU has like 20 guys who will be taken in the first 100 picks of each of the next 2 NFL drafts, but only has like 10 guys on the whole roster that saw any meaningful action last year. I don’t think they can surprise me whether they lose their last 3 games or win their last 5.