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[Sub-Saharan Africa] News and Politics Thread

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Posts

  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    For those that want a deep analysis outside the latest headlines, Naked Capitalism posted The War Nerd running through every single detail of this conflict.

    From the grim details of what an insurgency means, to the possibility that the "peace deal" was just Eritrea wanting a central government willing to let them carve out a piece of Ethiopia, to the background of this entire war, it covers a lot.

  • HamHamJHamHamJ Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Some interesting news. First off, the UN is moving all their people from Ethiopia:
    UNITED NATIONS, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The United Nations is "temporarily relocating" families of international staff from Ethiopia due to the security situation, U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said on Tuesday, adding that U.N. personnel would remain in the country.

    "We will continue to monitor the situation as it evolves, keeping in mind the safety of our staff and the need to continue to stand and deliver and to continue operations and support all the people that need our assistance," Dujarric said.

    Second, and oh boy this is a thing, PM Abiy is now leading from the front:
    ADDIS ABABA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has gone to direct the war effort from the front lines, state-affiliated media reported on Wednesday, and Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen Hassen will take charge of routine government business in his absence.

    Government spokesman Legesse Tulu detailed the transfer of some routine duties in a news conference, the report from Fana news outlet said.

    Abiy announced late on Monday he was planning to personally direct the fight against Tigrayan forces and their allies.

    "Let's meet at the war front," he wrote "The time has come to lead the country with sacrifice."

    Somehow that isn't filling people with confidence that Abiy has this handled.

    Okay I checked Wikipedia and he did serve in the military for 9 years so that is slightly less insane than it at first appeared. On the other hand that article also mentions too Olympic athletes joining the military.

    While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    To be honest I have no trouble believing the Tigrayans are doing bad shit because that’s how wars work. I do have a hard time believing anything claiming the government is not also doing bad shit and trying to blame deflect on their behalf.

  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    I'm laughing at the UN leaving because when I flew into Addis for work they canceled our reservations because the UN was coming to town

    We stayed at the Mariot

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Second, and oh boy this is a thing, PM Abiy is now leading from the front:
    ADDIS ABABA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has gone to direct the war effort from the front lines, state-affiliated media reported on Wednesday, and Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen Hassen will take charge of routine government business in his absence.

    Government spokesman Legesse Tulu detailed the transfer of some routine duties in a news conference, the report from Fana news outlet said.

    Abiy announced late on Monday he was planning to personally direct the fight against Tigrayan forces and their allies.

    "Let's meet at the war front," he wrote "The time has come to lead the country with sacrifice."

    NOBEL PEACE PRIZE WINNER 2019

    Great job, buncha old Norwegians

  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    For those that want a deep analysis outside the latest headlines, Naked Capitalism posted The War Nerd running through every single detail of this conflict.

    From the grim details of what an insurgency means, to the possibility that the "peace deal" was just Eritrea wanting a central government willing to let them carve out a piece of Ethiopia, to the background of this entire war, it covers a lot.

    Very interesting, although some sources online say that the Tigrayan and Tigrinya people are not one and the same as the article states.

  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    edited November 2021
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    For those that want a deep analysis outside the latest headlines, Naked Capitalism posted The War Nerd running through every single detail of this conflict.

    From the grim details of what an insurgency means, to the possibility that the "peace deal" was just Eritrea wanting a central government willing to let them carve out a piece of Ethiopia, to the background of this entire war, it covers a lot.

    That website design gives me a headache on mobile, but the ethnic group in question dominating the military branches of both Eritrea and Ethiopia is something I had not seen shared before. using text to speech to write this

    Edit:

    Fixed

    What I mean by my statement is that these are going to be experienced commanders fighting on the Tigray side, with actual field expertise. Not dudes sitting in the back ordering other people to get it done

    RoyceSraphim on
  • SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Good ol War Nerd

    Actually cuts through the bullshit and at least tries to provide an analysis

  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Good ol War Nerd

    Actually cuts through the bullshit and at least tries to provide an analysis

    I can't tell his advertising from the damn article

  • SolventSolvent Econ-artist กรุงเทพมหานครRegistered User regular
    I'm laughing at the UN leaving because when I flew into Addis for work they canceled our reservations because the UN was coming to town
    That's an odd thing to say. "The UN was coming to town"?

    Addis is home to the Economic Commission for Africa , and many UN agencies and funds also have large offices with permanent staff there. Those many hundreds of people live there with spouses and children. In cities on the point of undergoing a violent coup d'état, it's unsurprising that the UN evacuates these people. These are project officers, economists, hr people etc., not peacekeepers.

    I don't know where he got the scorpions, or how he got them into my mattress.

    http://newnations.bandcamp.com
  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    Solvent wrote: »
    I'm laughing at the UN leaving because when I flew into Addis for work they canceled our reservations because the UN was coming to town
    That's an odd thing to say. "The UN was coming to town"?

    Addis is home to the Economic Commission for Africa , and many UN agencies and funds also have large offices with permanent staff there. Those many hundreds of people live there with spouses and children. In cities on the point of undergoing a violent coup d'état, it's unsurprising that the UN evacuates these people. These are project officers, economists, hr people etc., not peacekeepers.

    We landed at the airport, had our reservations, were sat down and told to fuck off

    You cannot understand the scale of this facility
    https://maps.app.goo.gl/dQQct4FuQiRPtHZF7

    Going to be useful once the fighting starts 😔

  • SolventSolvent Econ-artist กรุงเทพมหานครRegistered User regular
    lol, friend, I know the place well.
    You said the Marriott btw, which is considerably smaller but closer to the UN offices.

    I don't know where he got the scorpions, or how he got them into my mattress.

    http://newnations.bandcamp.com
  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    Solvent wrote: »
    lol, friend, I know the place well.
    You said the Marriott btw, which is considerably smaller but closer to the UN offices.

    No, the Mariot

  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    Ethiopia just shut down all the secondary schools so the students can be forced out into the fields to harvest the crops to "support the war effort."

    Nobel Peace Prize winner going out to the front lines sure does seem to be going well.

  • SolventSolvent Econ-artist กรุงเทพมหานครRegistered User regular
    At least from what is written in that article, it would imply that government has regained a fair bit of ground from the TPLF.

    I don't know where he got the scorpions, or how he got them into my mattress.

    http://newnations.bandcamp.com
  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    A lot of atrocities happening in Western Tigray. Massacres, detention sites with torture, forced expulsions, and more. Ethiopia/Abiy I fear is gearing up for a full-on genocide beyond the genocide-by-starvation that's already going on.

  • JusticeforPlutoJusticeforPluto Registered User regular
    edited October 2022
    JusticeforPluto on
  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited October 2022
    The general/president's son is a huge fan of the new far right Italian PM and he is also welcoming the new Ambassador (presenting him to the President) whilst alluding to presumably close relations between the two by describing him as the official who will preside over the 'union' of Italy/Uganda's future close relationship I guess. I don't think we're seeing some cow facilitated Crusader Kings move - though oddly enough for a Far Right Christian, she lives and has had kids with her unmarried partner, so there is an opening for a diplomatic marriage...

    He's been "promoted" to now being in charge of special task forces as a full general rather than Lt General, handing control of overall land forces to the new Lt General, in a "how about I just put you in charge of "Super Secret Cool Stuff" rather than the actual army" move.

    Tastyfish on
  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    The general/president's son is a huge fan of the new far right Italian PM and he is also welcoming the new Ambassador (presenting him to the President) whilst alluding to presumably close relations between the two by describing him as the official who will preside over the 'union' of Italy/Uganda's future close relationship I guess. I don't think we're seeing some cow facilitated Crusader Kings move - though oddly enough for a Far Right Christian, she lives and has had kids with her unmarried partner, so there is an opening for a diplomatic marriage...

    He's been "promoted" to now being in charge of special task forces as a full general rather than Lt General, handing control of overall land forces to the new Lt General, in a "how about I just put you in charge of "Super Secret Cool Stuff" rather than the actual army" move.

    Ah, "special projects" in the corporate world

  • Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    I’m too brain poisoned to react to that appropriately

  • TicaldfjamTicaldfjam Snoqualmie, WARegistered User regular

    War over Water is one of the original battles and this one between Egypt and Ethiopia always gets thrown under the radar over here In the US.

    Imagine if the Mississippi River ended up (climate change making that a real possibility.) Like the Nile.

  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    So, digging out this thread because apparently Niger just had a coup today. Reuters:
    NIAMEY, July 26 (Reuters) - Niger President Mohamed Bazoum has been removed from power, according to a group of soldiers who appeared on the West African nation's national television late on Wednesday, hours after the president was held in the presidential palace.

    Reading from a statement, Colonel Amadou Abdramane, seated and flanked by nine other officers, said defence and security forces had decided: "Put an end to the regime that you know due to the deteriorating security situation and bad governance."

    I know next to nothing about the situation, but bringing it up.

  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    Unless the war Ukraine ends tonight, they know they're staring down the barrel of a gun that's already been fired by putin, and the bullet is on its way

  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Unless the war Ukraine ends tonight, they know they're staring down the barrel of a gun that's already been fired by putin, and the bullet is on its way

    Can you elaborate in that?

  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    edited July 2023
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Unless the war Ukraine ends tonight, they know they're staring down the barrel of a gun that's already been fired by putin, and the bullet is on its way

    Can you elaborate in that?

    India has stopped exporting rice and Ukraine is unable to export it's normal volume of grain and various other foods. Africa imports about 55 million metric tons of wheat.

    Edit: What the guy below me said.

    daveNYC on
    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style He/Him | Warning: Mothership Reporting Kennewick, WARegistered User regular
    daveNYC wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Unless the war Ukraine ends tonight, they know they're staring down the barrel of a gun that's already been fired by putin, and the bullet is on its way

    Can you elaborate in that?

    India has stopped exporting rice and Ukraine is unable to export it's normal volume of grain and various other foods. Africa imports about 55 tons of wheat.

    * 55 million metric tons.

    Stabbity_Style.png
  • ZibblsnrtZibblsnrt Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Unless the war Ukraine ends tonight, they know they're staring down the barrel of a gun that's already been fired by putin, and the bullet is on its way

    Can you elaborate in that?

    The new blockade of Ukrainian ports and Russian missile attacks on grain stockpiles are meant (as in "the Russian government's said as much") to deliberately worsen food insecurity in the developing world, which Putin hopes will lead to pressure on Ukraine to surrender.

  • RoyceSraphimRoyceSraphim Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Unless the war Ukraine ends tonight, they know they're staring down the barrel of a gun that's already been fired by putin, and the bullet is on its way

    Can you elaborate in that?

    The new blockade of Ukrainian ports and Russian missile attacks on grain stockpiles are meant (as in "the Russian government's said as much") to deliberately worsen food insecurity in the developing world, which Putin hopes will lead to pressure on Ukraine to surrender.

    Which will have the knock on effecr (assuming that is the right phrasing) of cracking every unstable food importing government in half

  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Unless the war Ukraine ends tonight, they know they're staring down the barrel of a gun that's already been fired by putin, and the bullet is on its way

    Can you elaborate in that?

    The new blockade of Ukrainian ports and Russian missile attacks on grain stockpiles are meant (as in "the Russian government's said as much") to deliberately worsen food insecurity in the developing world, which Putin hopes will lead to pressure on Ukraine to surrender.

    Which will have the knock on effecr (assuming that is the right phrasing) of cracking every unstable food importing government in half

    Also current effects of cooling relations with Africa because nothing says "You are a valued friend" like "we are going to starve you for leverage".

  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Contrary to most analysis on this thread, WSJ lays it as yet another Afghanistan-repeat: Western backed presidents get replaced in coups since the complete failure of counter-terrorism operations led to the military to cut a deal with the fundamentalists and pay for Wagner support:
    The U.S. has spent more than $500 million since 2012 to build up and train its armed forces. The European Union pledged 1 billion euros in aid to Niger, which in turn choked off the flow of migrants heading north toward Libya and the Mediterranean.

    Coups in Burkina Faso and Mali over the past two years have already hamstrung U.S. military assistance to the region; American appropriations law sharply limits aid to armies that have overthrown civilian governments. Although State Department lawyers haven’t declared events in Niger a coup d’état, such a move seems likely.

    After seizing power, militaries in both Mali and Burkina Faso ousted troops from France, the former colonial power in much of West Africa. Mali hired hundreds of Russia-linked Wagner Group fighters, who have been accused of massacring civilians and pillaging the country’s natural resources.

    “Niger is the last domino that we hope doesn’t fall,” said a senior U.S. intelligence official. “If it falls, I don’t exactly know what you’re going to do.” The official said Niger was the “last major footprint” in the Sahel for U.S. and French forces.
    In specific, how is a defeat of the US approach to the region:
    “It’s a massive blow to the U.S.,” said Cameron Hudson, former chief of staff to the U.S. special envoy for Sudan. “We have vouched for this leader like no other in the region.”

    President Biden gave Bazoum a seat of honor next to him at last year’s U.S.-led summit with African leaders in Washington. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Niger in March to announce $150 million in humanitarian aid in what U.S. diplomats described as an attempt to showcase the benefits of choosing the U.S. over Wagner.

    A post-coup break with the West could give Moscow a chance to step in with weapons and mercenaries, the way it has in Mali, according to analysts.

    “Niger is now in play,” said Hudson, now a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “It went firmly from the Western camp to a model for Russian opportunism.”
    Officials said the uprising—the fifth such coup since Niger became independent from France in 1960—reflected years of frustration inside the army over the failure to defeat Islamist insurgents. Officers were also upset over Bazoum’s attempts to reform the military. In one move in June, his government appointed Salifou Modi, the head of the Nigerien Armed Forces since 2020, ambassador to the United Arab Emirates. On Thursday, social-media users speculated Modi, who couldn’t be reached, would now emerge as leader of the junta.

    Another trigger for the coup was Bazoum’s decision to reduce the financial perks of the presidential guard—the force that spearheaded the uprising by blockading the president in his residence, a former European official said. For more than a year, the president had been weighing whether to dismiss the unit’s commander, Gen. Omar Tchiani. Bazoum had also been building up other military units as a counterweight to the power wielded by the presidential guard.

    So, overall, a pretty grim picture, all things considered.

  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA mod
    There’s a majoritarian sentiment to stay with neutral with regard to Russia and any potential attempts to fully isolate it, but the Russians are directly undermining the rationale for that because the whole point is that things continue as usual. You can’t replace actual grain with promises of free grain. Even if some free grain arrives, and I don’t believe it will, the prices are shooting up regardless because there’s no getting around the fact global grain supply has been cut. And there would be no goodwill for the “free” part is either, since Qatar would be the country to thank for that. It’s all academic anyways, since none of this is happening.

    People who were not thrilled with sanctions aren’t going to be happy that grain ports are getting bombed and blockaded.

    smCQ5WE.jpg
  • SealSeal Registered User regular
    That wsj article reads as pushing a narrative rather than an objective review of facts. $500 million since 2012 reads to me as the US being barely interested and a more substantial investment not being worth the risk.

  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Zibblsnrt wrote: »
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Unless the war Ukraine ends tonight, they know they're staring down the barrel of a gun that's already been fired by putin, and the bullet is on its way

    Can you elaborate in that?

    The new blockade of Ukrainian ports and Russian missile attacks on grain stockpiles are meant (as in "the Russian government's said as much") to deliberately worsen food insecurity in the developing world, which Putin hopes will lead to pressure on Ukraine to surrender.

    Which will have the knock on effecr (assuming that is the right phrasing) of cracking every unstable food importing government in half

    Also current effects of cooling relations with Africa because nothing says "You are a valued friend" like "we are going to starve you for leverage".

    Works wonders in upselling your mercenaries though, happy to be paid in raw materials or laundered cash.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Seal wrote: »
    That wsj article reads as pushing a narrative rather than an objective review of facts. $500 million since 2012 reads to me as the US being barely interested and a more substantial investment not being worth the risk.

    From anything I've read african sentiment broadly is that the US is barely interested in the continent.

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