Along with the R0 and no restrictions, we're also heading into super-spreader-event-season.
So aside the marginal vaccine protection, and potentially lower population density (super-spreader-events put a lie to that), we don't have a whole lot of advantage on New York.
Well, you do have the advantage of it being summer.
La Nina
We're only just supposed to get our first thirty degree day today, and it's been raining every other day.
It is nice that the East coast isn't on fire though.
That's for the next El Nino cycle. Gotta give the country enough time to build up kindling so it can finally rid itself of the human infestation.
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MorninglordI'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered Userregular
More importantly, hospitalisations up by 26 today.
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
I really hope that if things turn to shit elsewhere from Omicron that McGowan has the balls to just say okay we're not reopening change of plans.
Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
truly is mindboggling how many people seem to act as if the virus is an unfair parent, dishing out extended punishment, who can be reasoned with to stop the whole thing once we've suffered "enough."
They really do not seem to understand that a natural force like a virus has no agenda, there is no "enough" - it stops when we stop it, and no sooner. Acting like a pandemic is over before it is over will just lengthen it.
I think that's the crux of the issue, if there is no "enough" then what must end is the lockdowns etc etc because that's the only thing we control. They're saying that if we cannot change the situation, then we need to change our expectations. Either way it has to end. For some people it took less than two weeks to go from "we must protect the elderly" to "let it rip", for most others it's taking longer, but that is the trajectory that we are on. I don't think we're going any other way than widespread acceptance of deaths. It's the only way this will end, and people really want this to end.
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
edited December 2021
If that's the way Australia as a whole goes then I can only hope the WA government cancels the reopening and keeps it that way.
At the end of the day, no amount of lockdowns or restrictions are worse than what the rest of the world is dealing with, or will be dealing with the future as things inevitably continue to get worse. I have no time for anyone who says otherwise.
Personally I agree, while the lack of interstate travel has stopped me seeing a few people and shut down a lot of events I would have gone to, I'd gladly take that over having to quarantine every so often because I was at a place of concern. That said, I know there are others feeling the border issues a lot more than I do, like people that have no local family or support network.
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
edited December 2021
I feel for those people in the short term, but long term I see no reason society can't adjust its expectations about being able to live wherever you want and still see family as often as you want, limited only by finances and annual leave allowances. In the short term adjusting to something like that would be rough, but in the long run I see no reason people can't make sacrifices to live near family and be able to see them more often, if that's something important to them.
I think that's the crux of the issue, if there is no "enough" then what must end is the lockdowns etc etc because that's the only thing we control. They're saying that if we cannot change the situation, then we need to change our expectations. Either way it has to end. For some people it took less than two weeks to go from "we must protect the elderly" to "let it rip", for most others it's taking longer, but that is the trajectory that we are on. I don't think we're going any other way than widespread acceptance of deaths. It's the only way this will end, and people really want this to end.
That's the problem though. Vaccinations give protection on a similar order as having caught it yourself (I think there were even some studies showing that a full 2+booster shot regime gives BETTER protection than having caught covid in 2020).
The new report (Report 49) from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimates that the risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the Delta variant. This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%.
There's no reason to think any "just let it rip through the population" approach will get us to an "end" - we just get a new variant next year and we repeat the cycle. "Acceptance of deaths" may actually mean "acceptance of lower human life expectancy and higher mortality rate in general for the foreseeable future".
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
If anything, letting it rip will mean more variants, not less.
Yeah, it'd just be the background radiation of our life. Like the flu. Hundreds of deaths a year, but no one cares. It was literally the status quo pre-covid with the flu. New variants every year, hovering around a thousand deaths a year, no one cared. Covid will be much worse, but I don't doubt for a minute that people won't adjust to the status quo and go back to not caring. I think it's inevitable at this point.
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MorninglordI'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered Userregular
edited December 2021
If hospitals stay continuously overwhelmed it will be significantly more than "much worse" because now every other thing you need to go to hospital for or die will kill you too.
It's too early to know how the hospital system will cope.
I have an alternative theory, if it turns out Omicron isn't benign. First, we'll go through the bad times. Then people will realise holy shit we can't live with it. And we'll go through the stages of grief and grow the fuck up and get used to not having normal back. Ever.
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AegeriTiny wee bacteriumsPlateau of LengRegistered Userregular
Looks like they’ve already achieved the 2500 cases a day marker.
If hospitals stay continuously overwhelmed it will be significantly more than "much worse" because now every other thing you need to go to hospital for or die will kill you too.
It's too early to know how the hospital system will cope.
I have an alternative theory, if it turns out Omicron isn't benign. First, we'll go through the bad times. Then people will realise holy shit we can't live with it. And we'll go through the stages of grief and grow the fuck up and get used to not having normal back. Ever.
Sure, but "not having normal back" will mean "increased mortality is accepted because people got to eat", not "no more clubs, bars, social gatherings, etc"
Like, I don't know how I'm going to deal with "no more kids' social gatherings" when my 3yo is constantly asking to go to gymnastics.
Do I never take him and never take him swimming or to any place where strenuous exercise occurs?
Is that even the best outcome if I insulate him while he can't get vaccinated but his immune system is most robust?
I had hoped to take him next year, as Delta was falling off, but now we're a month into another pandemic, so yay
If hospitals stay continuously overwhelmed it will be significantly more than "much worse" because now every other thing you need to go to hospital for or die will kill you too.
It's too early to know how the hospital system will cope.
I have an alternative theory, if it turns out Omicron isn't benign. First, we'll go through the bad times. Then people will realise holy shit we can't live with it. And we'll go through the stages of grief and grow the fuck up and get used to not having normal back. Ever.
Sure, but "not having normal back" will mean "increased mortality is accepted because people got to eat", not "no more clubs, bars, social gatherings, etc"
That is not what that means, no.
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
I mean,
I don't think anybody realistically knows what the 'new normal' is going to be.
it's not going to be 2019. It's just not.
and that might actually be a good thing in the long run.
But living life on pause, in some form of limbo while waiting for 'normal' to magically come back isn't an option either. Humans can't linger in limbo forever. It makes us cranky.
The best thing that we can do, as a family on my micro scale, to a community, etc is to just be a bit more flexible with our expectations. It's an evolving and ever changing new situation, we have to adapt with it. That means masks, QR Codes, Hand santizer, new ways of learning, new ways of teaching, new expectations for interpersonal relationship, etc.
I don't think anybody realistically knows what the 'new normal' is going to be.
it's not going to be 2019. It's just not.
and that might actually be a good thing in the long run.
But living life on pause, in some form of limbo while waiting for 'normal' to magically come back isn't an option either. Humans can't linger in limbo forever. It makes us cranky.
The best thing that we can do, as a family on my micro scale, to a community, etc is to just be a bit more flexible with our expectations. It's an evolving and ever changing new situation, we have to adapt with it. That means masks, QR Codes, Hand santizer, new ways of learning, new ways of teaching, new expectations for interpersonal relationship, etc.
Nobody knows what "normal" is going to be.
Yep. I seem to have been taken as the linchpin of maximum lockdown but all I really want is some kind of sensible understanding that you can't have everything going back to how it was before.
This always gets read, aggravatingly, as saying every citizen needs to go into solitary confinement, and I mean, come on. Needing to wear a mask for the rest of your life is fucking trivial. Socialising with a limited group instead of the unlimited amounts we used to, its still socialisation. We didn't used to have the huge amounts we have had in the last couple of hundred years for most of history because there weren't even that many people. We'll live! Your kids will see people still! It's ok!
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
and it doesn't even need to be for the rest of your life.
It might feel that way now, but we might find other ways to mitigate things in the future.
People do need to get back to 'living life', it's just going to look different than it did. And that's OK! Lifestyles change all the time, have for centuries upon centuries.
and it doesn't even need to be for the rest of your life.
It might feel that way now, but we might find other ways to mitigate things in the future.
People do need to get back to 'living life', it's just going to look different than it did. And that's OK! Lifestyles change all the time, have for centuries upon centuries.
this one was just kind of a speedrun.
Exactly.
We'll adjust and get as much as what we need as we safely can.
New businesses will spring up, new ways of socialising, the economy will adjust, life will go on, just different.
Maybe we'll get lucky and Omicron will be nothing, or maybe we wont. In either case, things will be ok.
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
We held into status quo limbo for the first... month of our Delta lockdown. But after that first month, and no real end in sight, and the numbers kept going we just both switched our mindsets of "waiting for it to go back" and "getting on with this new future.
We ended up in lockdown for 107 days. Limbo just wasn't sustainable for that period. Moving through the stages of grief and landing on Acceptance was honestly the only thing that kept us stable and vaguely sane.
If hospitals stay continuously overwhelmed it will be significantly more than "much worse" because now every other thing you need to go to hospital for or die will kill you too.
It's too early to know how the hospital system will cope.
I have an alternative theory, if it turns out Omicron isn't benign. First, we'll go through the bad times. Then people will realise holy shit we can't live with it. And we'll go through the stages of grief and grow the fuck up and get used to not having normal back. Ever.
Sure, but "not having normal back" will mean "increased mortality is accepted because people got to eat", not "no more clubs, bars, social gatherings, etc"
That is not what that means, no.
Yeah no, that's exactly what it means.
I either have to decide between swimming lessons for my kid or being Covid-safe.
Either way is increased mortality, because I doubt I can avoid lessons in a stuffy un-ventaliated indoor pool with random kids
If hospitals stay continuously overwhelmed it will be significantly more than "much worse" because now every other thing you need to go to hospital for or die will kill you too.
It's too early to know how the hospital system will cope.
I have an alternative theory, if it turns out Omicron isn't benign. First, we'll go through the bad times. Then people will realise holy shit we can't live with it. And we'll go through the stages of grief and grow the fuck up and get used to not having normal back. Ever.
Sure, but "not having normal back" will mean "increased mortality is accepted because people got to eat", not "no more clubs, bars, social gatherings, etc"
That is not what that means, no.
Yeah no, that's exactly what it means.
I either have to decide between swimming lessons for my kid or being Covid-safe.
Either way is increased mortality, because I doubt I can avoid lessons in a stuffy un-ventaliated indoor pool with random kids
That's a black and white extremist mentality that helps nobody.
You skipped several posts addressing this, so I refer you to them.
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If hospitals stay continuously overwhelmed it will be significantly more than "much worse" because now every other thing you need to go to hospital for or die will kill you too.
It's too early to know how the hospital system will cope.
I have an alternative theory, if it turns out Omicron isn't benign. First, we'll go through the bad times. Then people will realise holy shit we can't live with it. And we'll go through the stages of grief and grow the fuck up and get used to not having normal back. Ever.
Sure, but "not having normal back" will mean "increased mortality is accepted because people got to eat", not "no more clubs, bars, social gatherings, etc"
That is not what that means, no.
Yeah no, that's exactly what it means.
I either have to decide between swimming lessons for my kid or being Covid-safe.
Either way is increased mortality, because I doubt I can avoid lessons in a stuffy un-ventaliated indoor pool with random kids
That's a black and white extremist mentality that helps nobody.
You skipped several posts addressing this, so I refer you to them.
No, I didn't; they just didn't address this.
We are now in basically a new pandemic.
Either I need to wait for the new Omicron vaccines to be rolled out, and hope that no new variant restarts this again.
And for young kids to get vaccinated, maybe (Covid still being less severe to young kids, and you would hope crowd immunity protects them even before that although I've been watching the contact sites in all the kids swimming pools/activities at the moment)
Or I need to decide between the mortality risk of childhood drowning, or the mortality risk of catching Omicron.
And frankly, the stats I think fall in favour of catching Covid there.
It's not like I can regulate the swimming class either; any new bubble is a new bubble I'm throwing my kid into.
Just have to hope the new bubble stays consistent I guess.
And it's not like I have the luxury of time with the swimming classes; that is the whole point.
It's to prevent any accident occurring whenever it occurs, and that does not care about a pandemic still occurring.
Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
I'm just hoping and wishing on a little star every night that those who confidently proclaim "we have to learn to live with the virus" are the ones who face the consequences and lose their loved ones, or themselves, to the virus, and not the multiple immunocompromised people I know who have done everything right and might get fucked anyway
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
Ellie went back to swim lessons last week.
the entire gym/pool complex is checking and requiring vaccine passes for entry. One parent per child. Must remain distanced from others. Masks must be on.
and, I just, I have to find the balance and this seems to be working.
And I sure hope that by that post, @Dhalphir that you're talking about the antivax assholes who are saying that, and not those of us that are saying "I've done literally everything that I can short of living in bubble wrap and I have to get on with things"
Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
edited December 2021
I'm talking about those who confidently state we need to live with the virus but are not willing to do anything but get vaccinated. Those who are arguing the loudest about "life must go on" are also correlated strongly with those the least willing to wear masks long term, or accept social restrictions.
It is very clear that vaccines are not going to bring back the pre COVID world, the world as it was up until Feb 2020 and that that world is gone forever, or certainly for a lot longer than a couple years.
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MorninglordI'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered Userregular
If hospitals stay continuously overwhelmed it will be significantly more than "much worse" because now every other thing you need to go to hospital for or die will kill you too.
It's too early to know how the hospital system will cope.
I have an alternative theory, if it turns out Omicron isn't benign. First, we'll go through the bad times. Then people will realise holy shit we can't live with it. And we'll go through the stages of grief and grow the fuck up and get used to not having normal back. Ever.
Sure, but "not having normal back" will mean "increased mortality is accepted because people got to eat", not "no more clubs, bars, social gatherings, etc"
That is not what that means, no.
Yeah no, that's exactly what it means.
I either have to decide between swimming lessons for my kid or being Covid-safe.
Either way is increased mortality, because I doubt I can avoid lessons in a stuffy un-ventaliated indoor pool with random kids
That's a black and white extremist mentality that helps nobody.
You skipped several posts addressing this, so I refer you to them.
No, I didn't; they just didn't address this.
We are now in basically a new pandemic.
Either I need to wait for the new Omicron vaccines to be rolled out, and hope that no new variant restarts this again.
And for young kids to get vaccinated, maybe (Covid still being less severe to young kids, and you would hope crowd immunity protects them even before that although I've been watching the contact sites in all the kids swimming pools/activities at the moment)
Or I need to decide between the mortality risk of childhood drowning, or the mortality risk of catching Omicron.
And frankly, the stats I think fall in favour of catching Covid there.
It's not like I can regulate the swimming class either; any new bubble is a new bubble I'm throwing my kid into.
Just have to hope the new bubble stays consistent I guess.
And it's not like I have the luxury of time with the swimming classes; that is the whole point.
It's to prevent any accident occurring whenever it occurs, and that does not care about a pandemic still occurring.
No its extremist because you are equating swimming classes -a life saving educational activity that is reasonable to have an exception for - with every other restriction.
Restrictions arent light switches.
You can have your swimming classes and small child socialisation sessions AND not have other much more risky activities like unlimited size parties or nightclubs with a thousand patrons a night.
Or all the other dumb shit we are doing right now.
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The point was it puts a lie to 'not getting normal back' meaning 'no increased Covid mortality at all due to no high risk activities at all ever again'.
My original comment was glib, I admit.
But frankly, the new normal is going to be higher mortality, and I find your original response unrealistically optimistic.
We're pretty boned.
We've got omicron going nuts in NSW, and straight Covid testing is not going to help isolate that.
I can only assume the entire ACT is out with family again as always for Christmas, and will bring it home. And then I'll have Covid by late January.
FishmanPut your goddamned hand in the goddamned Box of Pain.Registered Userregular
edited December 2021
Learning to live with the virus isn't just shrug and go back to acting how we did in 2018 with a "oh well, people die", although it's often presented that way by people who do think that.
If I'm learning to live with a heart condition, or diabetes, or asthma, or any one of a dozen other medical conditions, that doesn't mean going back to acting exactly the way I did before. I change and modify my behaviours to a new normal, to limit risk and preserve my quality of life. There are compromises, and some things I just either cannot do, or can do with slight inconvenience.
That's what learning to live with a thing means.
EDIT: This isn't replying to anyone in particular, I'm just venting frustration at the Plan B jagoffs.
If Australia was serious about learning to live with Covid, we would have had proper international quarantine facilities by now, and locked down as soon as a new variant of concern popped up in Aus, until we had more data
But no, we're 'learning to live with Covid' and opening up.
Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
edited December 2021
Yeah. Pretending it's over isn't learning to live with it. You absolutely immediately slam everything shut whenever anything new comes about. If COVID hasn't proven by now that it's better to overreact than underreact, I don't know what will.
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MorninglordI'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered Userregular
Learning to live with the virus isn't just shrug and go back to acting how we did in 2018 with a "oh well, people die", although it's often presented that way by people who do think that.
If I'm learning to live with a heart condition, or diabetes, or asthma, or any one of a dozen other medical conditions, that doesn't mean going back to acting exactly the way I did before. I change and modify my behaviours to a new normal, to limit risk and preserve my quality of life. There are compromises, and some things I just either cannot do, or can do with slight inconvenience.
That's what learning to live with a thing means.
EDIT: This isn't replying to anyone in particular, I'm just venting frustration at the Plan B jagoffs.
Yep. Thats my point and has been the whole time.
I dunno what optimistic take you are talking about discrider but Ive been saying this here for a while now.
This is literally what I mean by realising it isnt going away and we have to accept a new normal.
Like several pages ago I made the exact point you made about a lack of dedicated quarantine facilities: thats because everyone expected things to go back to normal soon (2019).
What Im saying is what is going to happen if covid doesnt play nice is the world will finally realise that isn't going to happen. And they will have to start building for a future where things like dedicated quarantine facilities are necessary.
Thats not optimistic at all...Im expecting a fuck ton of deaths before thatll happen. The world is desperate for 2019 and they wont give that up unless forced.
The most optimistic take is omicron is a dud hardly anyone dies and no more nasty variants appear.
Which would be nice.
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
WA Police Minister says West Australians would be understanding if border reopening was delayed
WA's Police Minister Paul Papalia says he believes West Australians would be understanding if the state's reopening date is postponed.
WA is expected to lift its hard borders on February 5 while the state government currently adopts a "watch-and-wait" strategy to see how other jurisdictions manage their reopenings.
Mr Papalia says there are a lot of concerns around exposing WA to the threat of the Omicron variant which continues to rapidly spread in other parts of Australia.
"I know there's a lot of people who are elderly, immunocompromised or parents with children under 12 who know that everyone is exposed once we open our borders and thats a reasonable fear so we'll be watching carefully and respond accordingly," he says.
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-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
And honestly, I can't pass judgement on the necessity of pubs and clubs, because I didn't understand why people would attend them even before Covid.
Pubs and clubs are different, depending on what you mean by clubs. Pubs are a social gathering place - have a few drinks and/or having a meal with friends or family is the most common reason people go to pubs.
That’s a real loss. Personally, I enjoyed having Friday lunches at the pub with work mates, or going to the pub for dinner with the missus. Different atmosphere and style of food than going to a restaurant, which we sometimes prefer.
Just this week, on Friday, a workmate asked me if I wanted to go to the pub for lunch. I turned him down due to this all kicking off again, but I would have much preferred to go.
Though I wish they’d bigger off the pokey rooms. Absolute blight on humanity.
WA Police Minister says West Australians would be understanding if border reopening was delayed
WA's Police Minister Paul Papalia says he believes West Australians would be understanding if the state's reopening date is postponed.
WA is expected to lift its hard borders on February 5 while the state government currently adopts a "watch-and-wait" strategy to see how other jurisdictions manage their reopenings.
Mr Papalia says there are a lot of concerns around exposing WA to the threat of the Omicron variant which continues to rapidly spread in other parts of Australia.
"I know there's a lot of people who are elderly, immunocompromised or parents with children under 12 who know that everyone is exposed once we open our borders and thats a reasonable fear so we'll be watching carefully and respond accordingly," he says.
I'm guessing that was why WA psuhed the border openign out so far, give themselves a chance to wait and see while also look like they're taking steps to "return to normal".
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That's for the next El Nino cycle. Gotta give the country enough time to build up kindling so it can finally rid itself of the human infestation.
SA is clearly in trouble now.
They really do not seem to understand that a natural force like a virus has no agenda, there is no "enough" - it stops when we stop it, and no sooner. Acting like a pandemic is over before it is over will just lengthen it.
At the end of the day, no amount of lockdowns or restrictions are worse than what the rest of the world is dealing with, or will be dealing with the future as things inevitably continue to get worse. I have no time for anyone who says otherwise.
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https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-rapid-spread-omicron-england/
There's no reason to think any "just let it rip through the population" approach will get us to an "end" - we just get a new variant next year and we repeat the cycle. "Acceptance of deaths" may actually mean "acceptance of lower human life expectancy and higher mortality rate in general for the foreseeable future".
It's too early to know how the hospital system will cope.
I have an alternative theory, if it turns out Omicron isn't benign. First, we'll go through the bad times. Then people will realise holy shit we can't live with it. And we'll go through the stages of grief and grow the fuck up and get used to not having normal back. Ever.
Sure, but "not having normal back" will mean "increased mortality is accepted because people got to eat", not "no more clubs, bars, social gatherings, etc"
Like, I don't know how I'm going to deal with "no more kids' social gatherings" when my 3yo is constantly asking to go to gymnastics.
Do I never take him and never take him swimming or to any place where strenuous exercise occurs?
Is that even the best outcome if I insulate him while he can't get vaccinated but his immune system is most robust?
I had hoped to take him next year, as Delta was falling off, but now we're a month into another pandemic, so yay
The world of 2019 is gone forever.
That is not what that means, no.
I don't think anybody realistically knows what the 'new normal' is going to be.
it's not going to be 2019. It's just not.
and that might actually be a good thing in the long run.
But living life on pause, in some form of limbo while waiting for 'normal' to magically come back isn't an option either. Humans can't linger in limbo forever. It makes us cranky.
The best thing that we can do, as a family on my micro scale, to a community, etc is to just be a bit more flexible with our expectations. It's an evolving and ever changing new situation, we have to adapt with it. That means masks, QR Codes, Hand santizer, new ways of learning, new ways of teaching, new expectations for interpersonal relationship, etc.
Nobody knows what "normal" is going to be.
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Yep. I seem to have been taken as the linchpin of maximum lockdown but all I really want is some kind of sensible understanding that you can't have everything going back to how it was before.
This always gets read, aggravatingly, as saying every citizen needs to go into solitary confinement, and I mean, come on. Needing to wear a mask for the rest of your life is fucking trivial. Socialising with a limited group instead of the unlimited amounts we used to, its still socialisation. We didn't used to have the huge amounts we have had in the last couple of hundred years for most of history because there weren't even that many people. We'll live! Your kids will see people still! It's ok!
It might feel that way now, but we might find other ways to mitigate things in the future.
People do need to get back to 'living life', it's just going to look different than it did. And that's OK! Lifestyles change all the time, have for centuries upon centuries.
this one was just kind of a speedrun.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Exactly.
We'll adjust and get as much as what we need as we safely can.
New businesses will spring up, new ways of socialising, the economy will adjust, life will go on, just different.
Maybe we'll get lucky and Omicron will be nothing, or maybe we wont. In either case, things will be ok.
We ended up in lockdown for 107 days. Limbo just wasn't sustainable for that period. Moving through the stages of grief and landing on Acceptance was honestly the only thing that kept us stable and vaguely sane.
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The suffering being caused by the closed borders is literally nothing next to the suffering literally everywhere else in the world.
Yeah no, that's exactly what it means.
I either have to decide between swimming lessons for my kid or being Covid-safe.
Either way is increased mortality, because I doubt I can avoid lessons in a stuffy un-ventaliated indoor pool with random kids
That's a black and white extremist mentality that helps nobody.
You skipped several posts addressing this, so I refer you to them.
No, I didn't; they just didn't address this.
We are now in basically a new pandemic.
Either I need to wait for the new Omicron vaccines to be rolled out, and hope that no new variant restarts this again.
And for young kids to get vaccinated, maybe (Covid still being less severe to young kids, and you would hope crowd immunity protects them even before that although I've been watching the contact sites in all the kids swimming pools/activities at the moment)
Or I need to decide between the mortality risk of childhood drowning, or the mortality risk of catching Omicron.
And frankly, the stats I think fall in favour of catching Covid there.
It's not like I can regulate the swimming class either; any new bubble is a new bubble I'm throwing my kid into.
Just have to hope the new bubble stays consistent I guess.
And it's not like I have the luxury of time with the swimming classes; that is the whole point.
It's to prevent any accident occurring whenever it occurs, and that does not care about a pandemic still occurring.
the entire gym/pool complex is checking and requiring vaccine passes for entry. One parent per child. Must remain distanced from others. Masks must be on.
and, I just, I have to find the balance and this seems to be working.
And I sure hope that by that post, @Dhalphir that you're talking about the antivax assholes who are saying that, and not those of us that are saying "I've done literally everything that I can short of living in bubble wrap and I have to get on with things"
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It is very clear that vaccines are not going to bring back the pre COVID world, the world as it was up until Feb 2020 and that that world is gone forever, or certainly for a lot longer than a couple years.
No its extremist because you are equating swimming classes -a life saving educational activity that is reasonable to have an exception for - with every other restriction.
Restrictions arent light switches.
You can have your swimming classes and small child socialisation sessions AND not have other much more risky activities like unlimited size parties or nightclubs with a thousand patrons a night.
Or all the other dumb shit we are doing right now.
The point was it puts a lie to 'not getting normal back' meaning 'no increased Covid mortality at all due to no high risk activities at all ever again'.
My original comment was glib, I admit.
But frankly, the new normal is going to be higher mortality, and I find your original response unrealistically optimistic.
We're pretty boned.
We've got omicron going nuts in NSW, and straight Covid testing is not going to help isolate that.
I can only assume the entire ACT is out with family again as always for Christmas, and will bring it home. And then I'll have Covid by late January.
If I'm learning to live with a heart condition, or diabetes, or asthma, or any one of a dozen other medical conditions, that doesn't mean going back to acting exactly the way I did before. I change and modify my behaviours to a new normal, to limit risk and preserve my quality of life. There are compromises, and some things I just either cannot do, or can do with slight inconvenience.
That's what learning to live with a thing means.
EDIT: This isn't replying to anyone in particular, I'm just venting frustration at the Plan B jagoffs.
But no, we're 'learning to live with Covid' and opening up.
Yep. Thats my point and has been the whole time.
I dunno what optimistic take you are talking about discrider but Ive been saying this here for a while now.
This is literally what I mean by realising it isnt going away and we have to accept a new normal.
Like several pages ago I made the exact point you made about a lack of dedicated quarantine facilities: thats because everyone expected things to go back to normal soon (2019).
What Im saying is what is going to happen if covid doesnt play nice is the world will finally realise that isn't going to happen. And they will have to start building for a future where things like dedicated quarantine facilities are necessary.
Thats not optimistic at all...Im expecting a fuck ton of deaths before thatll happen. The world is desperate for 2019 and they wont give that up unless forced.
The most optimistic take is omicron is a dud hardly anyone dies and no more nasty variants appear.
Which would be nice.
Pubs and clubs are different, depending on what you mean by clubs. Pubs are a social gathering place - have a few drinks and/or having a meal with friends or family is the most common reason people go to pubs.
That’s a real loss. Personally, I enjoyed having Friday lunches at the pub with work mates, or going to the pub for dinner with the missus. Different atmosphere and style of food than going to a restaurant, which we sometimes prefer.
Just this week, on Friday, a workmate asked me if I wanted to go to the pub for lunch. I turned him down due to this all kicking off again, but I would have much preferred to go.
Though I wish they’d bigger off the pokey rooms. Absolute blight on humanity.
I'm guessing that was why WA psuhed the border openign out so far, give themselves a chance to wait and see while also look like they're taking steps to "return to normal".