1) in 2015 he ignored the polling and did punditry instead and said Trump had no chance of the nom. This fuck up scarred him and his course correction was not great.
2) Covid - Nate was basically a Covid denier. He went wayyyyyyy out of his lane to comment on Covid policy and he got shouted at a lot (including an incredible two seperate occasions where he failed to understand how exponential series worked). He didn't take it well.
The final breaking point has been the 2020 and 2022 polling cycles where he has defended putting fake polls in his polling averages.
Yeah, on that last bit it's basically that Nate flipped the original problem with polls. In 2012, polls were basically accurate and yet media treated them as a complete joke, so Silver was the one eyed man in the land of the blind. Now, everyone respects polling, so partisan organizations can just throw in fake polls and Nate falls for it, plus everywhere had their own analysts so 538 is not uniquely situated anymore.
We shouldn't care at all about Nate Silver, what he does is not a social good. It's essentially non falsifiable and only serves to feed the horse race narratives that media loves and which dominates election coverage in place of actual policy coverage.
Polls can be useful for internal campaign usage to determine how to best distribute resources, but outside of that we give them way too much attention. Silver does not deserve to be a celebrity
We shouldn't care at all about Nate Silver, what he does is not a social good. It's essentially non falsifiable and only serves to feed the horse race narratives that media loves and which dominates election coverage in place of actual policy coverage.
Polls can be useful for internal campaign usage to determine how to best distribute resources, but outside of that we give them way too much attention. Silver does not deserve to be a celebrity
well, we know beef avenger is not a democratic campaign manager at the very least
I hate Nate cause he's right that the school closures have had severe impacts on children's learning and socialization but that doesn't mean it was the wrong choice
I mean, it's probably a good thing that people realized polls are actually useful and predictive compared to random pundits horse-racing against all reason and data, since at least you could get a well informed horse race narrative, but that's a real monkey's paw situation
I hate Nate cause he's right that the school closures have had severe impacts on children's learning and socialization but that doesn't mean it was the wrong choice
I mean, it's probably a good thing that people realized polls are actually useful and predictive compared to random pundits horse-racing against all reason and data, since at least you could get a well informed horse race narrative, but that's a real monkey's paw situation
The response was simply to go out and get polls that supported the desired narrative.
I hate Nate cause he's right that the school closures have had severe impacts on children's learning and socialization but that doesn't mean it was the wrong choice
But he isn't right, either, because the hardest hit areas are those that were already suffering from underfunding and insufficient staffing. It turns out places with more resources did better than those without.
I hate Nate cause he's right that the school closures have had severe impacts on children's learning and socialization but that doesn't mean it was the wrong choice
But he isn't right, either, because the hardest hit areas are those that were already suffering from underfunding and insufficient staffing. It turns out places with more resources did better than those without.
I mean sure, but those aren't mutually exclusive things. School closures had a demonstrable negative impact on kids, and poorer areas were hit the hardest, are two facts that can co-exist.
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BroloBroseidonLord of the BroceanRegistered Userregular
Look, I bought the Elon Musk sticker book, but I'm pretty sure I was scammed?
The page for "Elon Musk lied about something that is painfully easy to fact check, and people will be eager to disprove his absurd claims" is dangerously full - the title alone took up a lot of space!
And, I'm out of stickers. They've all gone on that page.
I hate Nate cause he's right that the school closures have had severe impacts on children's learning and socialization but that doesn't mean it was the wrong choice
The other option was, like, a ton more dead children.
The "concern" over "learning loss" is only a concern in that society insists these children all continue forward in the school system despite this suffering of retaining information, because the market demands them to be out in the work force ASAP.
If we did a mulligan and tried to cover the stuff done remotely again it could probably be a big benefit to reverse that loss, but that would mean all those kids can't be working for one more year.
The "concern" over "learning loss" is only a concern in that society insists these children all continue forward in the school system despite this suffering of retaining information, because the market demands them to be out in the work force ASAP.
If we did a mulligan and tried to cover the stuff done remotely again it could probably be a big benefit to reverse that loss, but that would mean all those kids can't be working for one more year.
Well also you'd have over a decade of double sized classrooms rolling through the system if you did a simple mulligan, which has its own severe drawbacks, but yes some form of supplemental education to make up for COVID would be good but also tremendously hard to scale up and then scale back down with qualified professional.
Another article has a video of the aftermath but I can't see the Tesla in it. They have confirmed no drug or alcohol involvement, which points to autopilot.
E: Also, there are two crashes at the same time as far as I can tell, and the alleged Tesla one has two injuries and 16 involved total.
milski on
I ate an engineer
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MaddocI'm Bobbin Threadbare, are you my mother?Registered Userregular
I'm not about to say it was definitely the self driving beta that caused it, but even if it didn't I will comfortably say a live self driving beta out in the wild is an incredibly reckless and stupid thing to do.
Thanks for the links. And yeah, I feel like saying it was autopilot is jumping to conclusions at this point, as much as I’d love for this to be something that can burn Musk.
Only one article referencing a Tesla being involved (so far) and no mention of auto pilot in any articles (so far). If there is an autopilot angle, I imagine news sites will run with it asap as that would generate some good clicks.
Unfortunately, all this being caused by a run of the mill bad/reckless driver is still the most likely possibility. It would be nice if your only worry when driving was just Musk fanboys using autopilot, but, of course, there are many other dangerous drivers on the road to worry about.
The "concern" over "learning loss" is only a concern in that society insists these children all continue forward in the school system despite this suffering of retaining information, because the market demands them to be out in the work force ASAP.
If we did a mulligan and tried to cover the stuff done remotely again it could probably be a big benefit to reverse that loss, but that would mean all those kids can't be working for one more year.
Well also you'd have over a decade of double sized classrooms rolling through the system if you did a simple mulligan, which has its own severe drawbacks, but yes some form of supplemental education to make up for COVID would be good but also tremendously hard to scale up and then scale back down with qualified professional.
It's nothing the US doesn't have the resources to deal with. As with everything else, what we lacked was the political will.
Edit: Also, you don't scale it down. The increased class sizes is just the cohorts entering the school system during COVID. Instead, you keep all those extra teachers so that long term it reduces class sizes once things normalize a bit.
lmao, like Apple isn’t one of the best companies out there when it comes to privacy.
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minor incidentexpert in a dying fieldnjRegistered Userregular
A head of lettuce
So much to unpack here.
1. “The man” doesn’t “build rockets”.
2. Even if you believed Elon personally builds rockets, the amount of crossover in skill sets between aerospace engineering and consumer electronics, mobile OS, and UI design is basically a rounding error.
3. I’d love to see him try. That would be hilarious.
Ah, it stinks, it sucks, it's anthropologically unjust
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MaddocI'm Bobbin Threadbare, are you my mother?Registered Userregular
I hate Nate cause he's right that the school closures have had severe impacts on children's learning and socialization but that doesn't mean it was the wrong choice
But he isn't right, either, because the hardest hit areas are those that were already suffering from underfunding and insufficient staffing. It turns out places with more resources did better than those without.
Even areas with a lot of resources/broadband/information technology were hit super hard and weren't spared from it though. They might've done better than other areas, but they still fell behind. Like you're describing an equity concern (which is 100% valid, mind) and what I'm describing is just effectiveness period.
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minor incidentexpert in a dying fieldnjRegistered Userregular
A big problem with the socialization also was that the canary in the coal mine has been chirping for a while about the erosion and obliteration of social spaces for children outside of school, but no one wanted to do anything, and then the canary was dead and they went "well that's probably fine" and then the last leg got kicked out from under it
Mr. Musk, your Twitter seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?
Ooh, a tough question, but a fair one.
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Blake TDo you have enemies then?Good. That means you’ve stood up for something, sometime in your life.Registered Userregular
Get him to make a phone. It will get more money out of a billionaire’s hand.
Maybe tell him that one of his ex wife said the only reason he isn’t funny is the fact that world hunger exists. See if we can cure world hunger that way. We do need to be careful though as he might just see it as a challenge to see how many people his car can run over.
A big problem with the socialization also was that the canary in the coal mine has been chirping for a while about the erosion and obliteration of social spaces for children outside of school, but no one wanted to do anything, and then the canary was dead and they went "well that's probably fine" and then the last leg got kicked out from under it
Yep. But who needs funding for children’s programs at your local library? Sounds like Socialism to me!
Ah, it stinks, it sucks, it's anthropologically unjust
Really the whole thing with Covid was that so much had been stripped down to barebones. The supply chain was the most visible example but the whole world was taking on aspects of that supply chain. Everything was stretched taut. And then this new pressure comes in.
A big problem with the socialization also was that the canary in the coal mine has been chirping for a while about the erosion and obliteration of social spaces for children outside of school, but no one wanted to do anything, and then the canary was dead and they went "well that's probably fine" and then the last leg got kicked out from under it
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Yeah, on that last bit it's basically that Nate flipped the original problem with polls. In 2012, polls were basically accurate and yet media treated them as a complete joke, so Silver was the one eyed man in the land of the blind. Now, everyone respects polling, so partisan organizations can just throw in fake polls and Nate falls for it, plus everywhere had their own analysts so 538 is not uniquely situated anymore.
Polls can be useful for internal campaign usage to determine how to best distribute resources, but outside of that we give them way too much attention. Silver does not deserve to be a celebrity
PSN: Robo_Wizard1
well, we know beef avenger is not a democratic campaign manager at the very least
Bad but not worst for sure
The response was simply to go out and get polls that supported the desired narrative.
But he isn't right, either, because the hardest hit areas are those that were already suffering from underfunding and insufficient staffing. It turns out places with more resources did better than those without.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
I mean sure, but those aren't mutually exclusive things. School closures had a demonstrable negative impact on kids, and poorer areas were hit the hardest, are two facts that can co-exist.
Look, I bought the Elon Musk sticker book, but I'm pretty sure I was scammed?
The page for "Elon Musk lied about something that is painfully easy to fact check, and people will be eager to disprove his absurd claims" is dangerously full - the title alone took up a lot of space!
And, I'm out of stickers. They've all gone on that page.
The other option was, like, a ton more dead children.
If we did a mulligan and tried to cover the stuff done remotely again it could probably be a big benefit to reverse that loss, but that would mean all those kids can't be working for one more year.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
What's really cool though is how we closed schools for a bit, did literally nothing, and then opened them up again that's really cool
Well also you'd have over a decade of double sized classrooms rolling through the system if you did a simple mulligan, which has its own severe drawbacks, but yes some form of supplemental education to make up for COVID would be good but also tremendously hard to scale up and then scale back down with qualified professional.
None of the articles I am seeing reference a Tesla being involved. And that tweet doesn’t have any follow ups or links to an article.
Anyone have a link to an article that ties Tesla and specifically Tesla autopilot to the accident? My Google-fu may just be failing me here.
This article has the quote.
https://www.ktvu.com/news/multi-car-crashes-disrupt-thanksgiving-day-travel-on-bay-bridges
Another article has a video of the aftermath but I can't see the Tesla in it. They have confirmed no drug or alcohol involvement, which points to autopilot.
https://abc7news.com/bay-bridge-crash-yerba-buena-island-tunnel-interstate-80-treasure/12490330/
E: Also, there are two crashes at the same time as far as I can tell, and the alleged Tesla one has two injuries and 16 involved total.
Only one article referencing a Tesla being involved (so far) and no mention of auto pilot in any articles (so far). If there is an autopilot angle, I imagine news sites will run with it asap as that would generate some good clicks.
Unfortunately, all this being caused by a run of the mill bad/reckless driver is still the most likely possibility. It would be nice if your only worry when driving was just Musk fanboys using autopilot, but, of course, there are many other dangerous drivers on the road to worry about.
The amount of bullshitting from him is just amazing
It's nothing the US doesn't have the resources to deal with. As with everything else, what we lacked was the political will.
Edit: Also, you don't scale it down. The increased class sizes is just the cohorts entering the school system during COVID. Instead, you keep all those extra teachers so that long term it reduces class sizes once things normalize a bit.
3DS: 0473-8507-2652
Switch: SW-5185-4991-5118
PSN: AbEntropy
1. “The man” doesn’t “build rockets”.
2. Even if you believed Elon personally builds rockets, the amount of crossover in skill sets between aerospace engineering and consumer electronics, mobile OS, and UI design is basically a rounding error.
3. I’d love to see him try. That would be hilarious.
Please. He'd call it an ePhone.
A lot of school districts really fucked up and dropped the ball to respond to COVID-19.
But man the socialization and educational shortcomings of a lot of kids -- especially young kids -- is really jarring.
Like, fifth graders starting this year that socially/emotionally/educationally were just second graders.
Even areas with a lot of resources/broadband/information technology were hit super hard and weren't spared from it though. They might've done better than other areas, but they still fell behind. Like you're describing an equity concern (which is 100% valid, mind) and what I'm describing is just effectiveness period.
And by the end of the “development” process it would just be a re-skinned Android phone made by Motorola.
Mr. Musk, your Twitter seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?
Ooh, a tough question, but a fair one.
Maybe tell him that one of his ex wife said the only reason he isn’t funny is the fact that world hunger exists. See if we can cure world hunger that way. We do need to be careful though as he might just see it as a challenge to see how many people his car can run over.
Satans..... hints.....
Yep. But who needs funding for children’s programs at your local library? Sounds like Socialism to me!
I present: Sunk Cost Fallacy
"I can definitely save Twitter, it's just as easy as creating a new phone company that can compete with Apple and Google, and how hard could that be?"
The children are too online.