Sorry, I should have specified, a citation that shows younger people die in the late 20th or early 21st century more frequently than the elderly, immunocomprimised, and children.
Sorry, I should have specified, a citation that shows younger people die in the late 20th or early 21st century more frequently than the elderly, immunocomprimised, and children.
Specific strains. That one could have been a one-off, could have been The Future. :P I'll poke around and see if I can find other examples.
Phoenix-D on
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MrMonroepassed outon the floor nowRegistered Userregular
Who gets the vaccine? The President? Whoever pays for it? How do you determine rules about that kind of thing?
In a perfect world, it would go to old people, poor people, sick people, and small children.
Most of it it will likely be used up by fat, overly entitled upper- and middle-class suburbanites who watch too much CNN and are therefore terrified they might die of the fucking flu.
I think any healthy, well-fed North American should have very little to be worried about here apart from a week or two of general discomfort.
Yeah, but there won't be enough vaccine to distribute to those groups. How do you decide who gets it?
One poster correctly stated that avian flu, as it currently manifests, lodges deep in the lungs, making it very hard to spread. You're being horribly alarmist and misusing epidemiology. It's virulence is high, but it's infectious capability on a pandemic level is very low. People getting this disease are people literally living with birds, sleeping with birds, et cetera. Now if it mutates and obtains a more severe host pathogenesis, we may have cause for worry. Remember also, that in 1918 we had nothing close to modern medicine. Hell, people really didn't even understand the concept of immunocomprimization or proper asceptic techniques. We were coming out of the dark age of medicine.
Yo. Read the OP. You get bootfaced for calling it "avian flu." They are fucking all "avian flus." Call it what it actually is. H5N1.
Edit: and the implication that old people are lower priority is correct: old people are more likely to have immunities to new pandemics. The 1918 Spanish Flu actually showed fewer old people dying from Influenza than the year before.
Edit again: also, old people are essentially just money sinks. If we're talking about dealing with a pandemic from even a marginally utilitarian standpoint, we should let the old folks die. They aren't worth the investment.
I read the first few sentences of the thread and darted to my car. I am now posting from the airport, en route to Madagascar.
Too late. Somebody in New Zealand coughed, so Madagascar has already closed their only seaport.
IT WAS ME
But seriously, how much does any strain of flu kill people in the western world anymore? Spanish flu probably wouldn't have been shit with, y'know, antibiotics or whatever.
Its not, really, the flu is a nasty bug. That little snippet is even more true for the newer acid-tolerant strains of E. coli, though. If they go pandemic (and they're most likely to in countries with lots of factory farms, which is where they evolve), then the healthy and young will be in big trouble.
Wasn't the world supposed to end via disease AT LEAST 10-15 times in the last 5 years? I think it's about time to put the last nail in this coffin. It's not.
I read the first few sentences of the thread and darted to my car. I am now posting from the airport, en route to Madagascar.
Too late. Somebody in New Zealand coughed, so Madagascar has already closed their only seaport.
IT WAS ME
But seriously, how much does any strain of flu kill people in the western world anymore? Spanish flu probably wouldn't have been shit with, y'know, antibiotics or whatever.
The flu is a VIRUS. All you're going to do with antibiotics is make it worse by killing off non-pathogenic bacteria in your gut and giving it even more space to run amok.
All you can really do with the flu, sans immunizations, is treat the symptoms and wait for the body to kill it on its own.
Not quite the case. I remember reading that most spanish flu deaths were actually due to secondary bacterial infections that snuck in while the immune system was depressed by its efforts to combat the virus. Antibiotics have their place as a support for the body while it fights off the disease.
Not quite the case. I remember reading that most spanish flu deaths were actually due to secondary bacterial infections that snuck in while the immune system was depressed by its efforts to combat the virus. Antibiotics have their place as a support for the body while it fights off the disease.
Wasn't the world supposed to end via disease AT LEAST 10-15 times in the last 5 years? I think it's about time to put the last nail in this coffin. It's not.
And finally we have the inverse version of the silliness in the OP. With what we presently know about influenza we cannot conclusively say that the world will or will not end due to a dangerous mutation.
But I'm not stockpiling cans of beans, nor am I even particularly interested in hypothetical scenarios of such. But just because threats of doom and gloom are mostly wildly inflated it doesn't follow that the OP's hypothetical scenario isn't interesting, or worthy of contemplation. It is, after all, within the sphere of what is possible, even if only narrowly.
Basically, take a 16-sided die and a 9-sided die. There are maybe five or six combinations capable of causing a pandemic at any given time. Roll both at once for each year, for every year. Those numbers come up eventually.
This is not actually true.
The longer you roll the dice without a particular combination coming up, the less likely it is that it will ever occur, as it becomes more and more probable that the dice are loaded.
Adrien on
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TL DRNot at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered Userregular
edited August 2008
Actually, if the dice rolls give ongoing results that are counter to the established hypothesis while lacking evidence to support the existence of an omnipotent interfering craps player with a hardon for unleashing dice-based plagues...
What I'm trying to say is, can we discard the dice metaphor?
Also, the flu responds to antivirals. Which antivirals in particular depends on the particular strain. Remember Tamiflu? Yeah, that was an antiviral.
So's Relenza, which is one of the drugs I love because they basically identified a receptor sight the virus uses to infect cells and then designed a molecule which blocks that. I find that to be an awesome way to develop new drugs.
There's also a bunch of general purpose antivirals which can help too. Plus the whacky insta-vaccine thing Aegeri confirmed actually works much to my surprise (centrifuging the blood for the plasma so you get the antibodies) which has been used a couple of times to save people with Ebola.
electricitylikesme on
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MorninglordI'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered Userregular
Also, the flu responds to antivirals. Which antivirals in particular depends on the particular strain. Remember Tamiflu? Yeah, that was an antiviral.
So's Relenza, which is one of the drugs I love because they basically identified a receptor sight the virus uses to infect cells and then designed a molecule which blocks that. I find that to be an awesome way to develop new drugs.
There's also a bunch of general purpose antivirals which can help too. Plus the whacky insta-vaccine thing Aegeri confirmed actually works much to my surprise (centrifuging the blood for the plasma so you get the antibodies) which has been used a couple of times to save people with Ebola.
Wow, that's a great idea. Just slam the door on the virus. Just one question, is there any natural molecules in the body that need that receptor site that cause really bad effects? I'm guessing side effects of it would be a bit nasty?
Morninglord on
(PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
Also, the flu responds to antivirals. Which antivirals in particular depends on the particular strain. Remember Tamiflu? Yeah, that was an antiviral.
So's Relenza, which is one of the drugs I love because they basically identified a receptor sight the virus uses to infect cells and then designed a molecule which blocks that. I find that to be an awesome way to develop new drugs.
There's also a bunch of general purpose antivirals which can help too. Plus the whacky insta-vaccine thing Aegeri confirmed actually works much to my surprise (centrifuging the blood for the plasma so you get the antibodies) which has been used a couple of times to save people with Ebola.
Wow, that's a great idea. Just slam the door on the virus. Just one question, is there any natural molecules in the body that need that receptor site that cause really bad effects? I'm guessing side effects of it would be a bit nasty?
No idea. The main point of most of these drugs I think is that they're short term things - I mean the general purpose anti-virals work by inhibiting mitosis in your cells as far as I know.
Also, the flu responds to antivirals. Which antivirals in particular depends on the particular strain. Remember Tamiflu? Yeah, that was an antiviral.
So's Relenza, which is one of the drugs I love because they basically identified a receptor sight the virus uses to infect cells and then designed a molecule which blocks that. I find that to be an awesome way to develop new drugs.
There's also a bunch of general purpose antivirals which can help too. Plus the whacky insta-vaccine thing Aegeri confirmed actually works much to my surprise (centrifuging the blood for the plasma so you get the antibodies) which has been used a couple of times to save people with Ebola.
Wow, that's a great idea. Just slam the door on the virus. Just one question, is there any natural molecules in the body that need that receptor site that cause really bad effects? I'm guessing side effects of it would be a bit nasty?
Yes, it's technically possible but I don't remember any examples. General anti viral drugs work by targeting proteins only found in viruses, not in cells.
tofu on
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MorninglordI'm tired of being Batman,so today I'll be Owl.Registered Userregular
Also, the flu responds to antivirals. Which antivirals in particular depends on the particular strain. Remember Tamiflu? Yeah, that was an antiviral.
So's Relenza, which is one of the drugs I love because they basically identified a receptor sight the virus uses to infect cells and then designed a molecule which blocks that. I find that to be an awesome way to develop new drugs.
There's also a bunch of general purpose antivirals which can help too. Plus the whacky insta-vaccine thing Aegeri confirmed actually works much to my surprise (centrifuging the blood for the plasma so you get the antibodies) which has been used a couple of times to save people with Ebola.
Wow, that's a great idea. Just slam the door on the virus. Just one question, is there any natural molecules in the body that need that receptor site that cause really bad effects? I'm guessing side effects of it would be a bit nasty?
No idea. The main point of most of these drugs I think is that they're short term things - I mean the general purpose anti-virals work by inhibiting mitosis in your cells as far as I know.
!! Holy shit.
Morninglord on
(PSN: Morninglord) (Steam: Morninglord) (WiiU: Morninglord22) I like to record and toss up a lot of random gaming videos here.
I thought it was an overworking immune system that ends up killing a person when they get one of these things.
My immune system overworks and attacks my body on a daily basis to begin with. Generally speaking, the worst I get from cold or flu seasons are sore throats and maybe some sinus trouble. I haven't had a serious illness in quite awhile that wasn't just food poisoning, despite being exposed to quite a few sick people and likely carriers.
Incenjucar on
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TL DRNot at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered Userregular
Thankfully we don't waste resources preparing for an event when we have no idea if it's even going to happen. Yes, it's possible that H5N1 will mutate into some unstoppable killer virus, but how likely is it? I would guess that its pretty remote. And even if it did become a pandemic, we have the means to stop it.
Thankfully we don't waste resources preparing for an event when we have no idea if it's even going to happen. Yes, it's possible that H5N1 will mutate into some unstoppable killer virus, but how likely is it? I would guess that its pretty remote. And even if it did become a pandemic, we have the means to stop it.
Actually it's kind of doubtful we have the means to stop a pandemic, the point is generally that it would never reach that point. H5N1 demonstrated beautifully that provided governments don't try to cover it up (FUCK YOU CHINA) the international health community has the resources and means to react very very quickly to a new pathogen.
The interferon system that your body uses to combat viral infection (usually detected by the presence of double stranded RNA in your cells) Is what the whole antiviral scheme is based on. Its the reason why you feel like you have the flu when you take antivirals. If you have any interest in *oh noes, pandemic!* you should read up on viral immunology. Hell, someone give me some hosting space, and I will give you guys a few fantastic podcast/lectures that i took last semester.
Oops, re-reading my post I think I come off a bit narky, i didn't mean that. Its all extremely interesting. Virus study has to be the most interesting thing in my degree so far, maybe only behind gene therapy, which uses viruses anyway!
Posts
Specific strains. That one could have been a one-off, could have been The Future. :P I'll poke around and see if I can find other examples.
Yeah, but there won't be enough vaccine to distribute to those groups. How do you decide who gets it?
Yo. Read the OP. You get bootfaced for calling it "avian flu." They are fucking all "avian flus." Call it what it actually is. H5N1.
Edit: and the implication that old people are lower priority is correct: old people are more likely to have immunities to new pandemics. The 1918 Spanish Flu actually showed fewer old people dying from Influenza than the year before.
Edit again: also, old people are essentially just money sinks. If we're talking about dealing with a pandemic from even a marginally utilitarian standpoint, we should let the old folks die. They aren't worth the investment.
Just saying.
Seriously.
IT WAS ME
But seriously, how much does any strain of flu kill people in the western world anymore? Spanish flu probably wouldn't have been shit with, y'know, antibiotics or whatever.
People really need to not isolate themselves from commonly-keptt animals, it leaves them vulnerable to the diseases that crop up from them.
The flu is a VIRUS. All you're going to do with antibiotics is make it worse by killing off non-pathogenic bacteria in your gut and giving it even more space to run amok.
All you can really do with the flu, sans immunizations, is treat the symptoms and wait for the body to kill it on its own.
Hmm, true, forgot about that possibility.
the "no true scotch man" fallacy.
And finally we have the inverse version of the silliness in the OP. With what we presently know about influenza we cannot conclusively say that the world will or will not end due to a dangerous mutation.
But I'm not stockpiling cans of beans, nor am I even particularly interested in hypothetical scenarios of such. But just because threats of doom and gloom are mostly wildly inflated it doesn't follow that the OP's hypothetical scenario isn't interesting, or worthy of contemplation. It is, after all, within the sphere of what is possible, even if only narrowly.
This is not actually true.
The longer you roll the dice without a particular combination coming up, the less likely it is that it will ever occur, as it becomes more and more probable that the dice are loaded.
What I'm trying to say is, can we discard the dice metaphor?
There's also a bunch of general purpose antivirals which can help too. Plus the whacky insta-vaccine thing Aegeri confirmed actually works much to my surprise (centrifuging the blood for the plasma so you get the antibodies) which has been used a couple of times to save people with Ebola.
Wow, that's a great idea. Just slam the door on the virus. Just one question, is there any natural molecules in the body that need that receptor site that cause really bad effects? I'm guessing side effects of it would be a bit nasty?
!! Holy shit.
My immune system overworks and attacks my body on a daily basis to begin with. Generally speaking, the worst I get from cold or flu seasons are sore throats and maybe some sinus trouble. I haven't had a serious illness in quite awhile that wasn't just food poisoning, despite being exposed to quite a few sick people and likely carriers.
Psoriasis.
I am fighting cancer before it even gets here.
I propose we start with the small, delicious ones, and work our way up to the large, delicious ones.
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