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Paul Ryan's (GOP) Alternative [Budget]

enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
edited February 2010 in Debate and/or Discourse
So here's this guy. Paul Ryan.
r000570.jpg

Congressman from Wisconsin, ranking Republican on the Committee on the Budget. As opposed to so much of the GOP, instead of nay-saying and whining, he has come out with an actual suggestion ("Roadmap") on fixing the deficit.

His full proposal can be found here. It has been CBO scored, the full report of which can be found here. Obligatory article from The Economist here.

Highlights:
Real Gross National Product per Capita under Ryan's Budget (solid line) and current law (dashed line).
4349796580_7ed374cf0d_o.png

Federal Debt Held by the Public under Ryan's Budget (solid line) and current law (dashed line).
4349049351_ebb1388b21_o.png

This is (mostly) accomplished by cutting entitlement spending. Medicare would be replaced with a "buy insurance voucher," indexed to the average of inflation (CPI-U) and medical inflation (CPI-M). Social Security benefits are cut for younger workers today, and they have the option of further cuts in exchange for diverting some payroll taxes into private retirement accounts.

So, Paul Ryan.
More Jack Ryan?
jack-ryan.jpg
Or more Andrew Ryan?
4349887316_2f157c1507_o.jpg

enc0re on
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    AegisAegis Fear My Dance Overshot Toronto, Landed in OttawaRegistered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Err, by the first chart, his Roadmap doesn't have any substantial increase in GNP until 20 years into the futures and projects out 70 years?

    Aegis on
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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Wheres the part where he wanted to make ONLY TWO TAX BRACKETS

    nexuscrawler on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    It would fuck over sick seniors (11,000 for insurance for them! Good luck!), the poor, the young, and it wouldn't even actually balance the budget because the CBO agreed to his request to cook the books to make it look like it would.
    Here's how they put it, in budget-ese: "As specified by your staff, for this analysis total federal tax revenues are assumed to equal those under [current fiscal policy]," the analysis reads.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    SyphonBlueSyphonBlue The studying beaver That beaver sure loves studying!Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Along with completely gutting medicare and social security. Which is doubly hilarious since the GOP just spent the better part of 6 months telling everyone "Obamacare" was going to gut medicare.

    He's very obviously Andrew Ryan. He's even a huge fan of Ayn Rand!
    Rand developed the objectivist philosophy, which values the self, capitalism and laissez-faire economics. Ryan, the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, reportedly requires staffers and interns to read her opus, Atlas Shrugged, and gives out copies as gifts.

    SyphonBlue on
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    enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Wheres the part where he wanted to make ONLY TWO TAX BRACKETS

    Not part of this CBO analysis. The CBO bit was done assuming the current tax scheme stays in place.

    enc0re on
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    wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    wwtMask on
    When he dies, I hope they write "Worst Affirmative Action Hire, EVER" on his grave. His corpse should be trolled.
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    SyphonBlueSyphonBlue The studying beaver That beaver sure loves studying!Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    wwtMask wrote: »
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    Then we mail out bootstraps to every American.

    SyphonBlue on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    Then we mail out bootstraps to every American.

    You can't give them bootstraps, that would be socialism.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    Edith_Bagot-DixEdith_Bagot-Dix Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    Along with completely gutting medicare and social security. Which is doubly hilarious since the GOP just spent the better part of 6 months telling everyone "Obamacare" was going to gut medicare.

    He's very obviously Andrew Ryan. He's even a huge fan of Ayn Rand!
    Rand developed the objectivist philosophy, which values the self, capitalism and laissez-faire economics. Ryan, the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, reportedly requires staffers and interns to read her opus, Atlas Shrugged, and gives out copies as gifts.

    He gives away copies of Atlas Shrugged? Sounds like he's on the side of the moochers to me.

    Edith_Bagot-Dix on


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    zeenyzeeny Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Economic projections for 10+ years in the future make me cry. Honest.

    zeeny on
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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Publicity stunt anyone?

    nexuscrawler on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    zeeny wrote: »
    Economic projections for 10+ years in the future make me cry. Honest.

    This too, of course. Someone (Sullivan?) posted a chart of projected budget vs. actual budget over the last three decades and they're horribly unreliable five years out much less seventy.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Publicity stunt anyone?

    The GOP's entire platform is a publicity stunt.

    wwtMask on
    When he dies, I hope they write "Worst Affirmative Action Hire, EVER" on his grave. His corpse should be trolled.
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    OptimusZedOptimusZed Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    Then we mail out bootstraps to every American.

    You can't give them bootstraps, that would be socialism.
    What if we give them bootstraps, then make them pay us for them?

    OptimusZed on
    We're reading Rifts. You should too. You know you want to. Now With Ninjas!

    They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    Then we mail out bootstraps to every American.

    You can't give them bootstraps, that would be socialism.
    What if we give them bootstraps, then make them pay us for them?

    Government owns the means of production (of bootstraps)? That's super socialism!

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    TL DRTL DR Not at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered User regular
    edited February 2010
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    Then we mail out bootstraps to every American.

    You can't give them bootstraps, that would be socialism.
    What if we give them bootstraps, then make them pay us for them?

    I propose we issue loans equal to the retail cost of each book at 22% interest. Then we package these loans and sell some as investment-grade and take insurance out on the remainder before selling the re-packaged insurance policies to everyone else.

    TL DR on
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    DrakeonDrakeon Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    It's worse then not proposing anything really. I'd rather the Republicans not propose anything than this dreck. Jesus, the note about him giving his interns/staffers Atlas Shrugged and telling them to give it as gifts basically sums up all that needs to be said.

    Drakeon on
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    OptimusZedOptimusZed Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    Then we mail out bootstraps to every American.

    You can't give them bootstraps, that would be socialism.
    What if we give them bootstraps, then make them pay us for them?

    Government owns the means of production (of bootstraps)? That's super socialism!
    DAMMIT

    But if we can't produce bootstraps, and we can't give them bootstraps, and they can't afford bootstraps, where does that leave us.

    OptimusZed on
    We're reading Rifts. You should too. You know you want to. Now With Ninjas!

    They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
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    wwtMaskwwtMask Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    Then we mail out bootstraps to every American.

    You can't give them bootstraps, that would be socialism.
    What if we give them bootstraps, then make them pay us for them?

    Government owns the means of production (of bootstraps)? That's super socialism!
    DAMMIT

    But if we can't produce bootstraps, and we can't give them bootstraps, and they can't afford bootstraps, where does that leave us.

    Commie-fascist-Obama-socialism.

    wwtMask on
    When he dies, I hope they write "Worst Affirmative Action Hire, EVER" on his grave. His corpse should be trolled.
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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    Then we mail out bootstraps to every American.

    You can't give them bootstraps, that would be socialism.
    What if we give them bootstraps, then make them pay us for them?

    Government owns the means of production (of bootstraps)? That's super socialism!
    DAMMIT

    But if we can't produce bootstraps, and we can't give them bootstraps, and they can't afford bootstraps, where does that leave us.

    If we do absolutely nothing the base components of bootstraps will materialize out of thin air

    nexuscrawler on
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    SyphonBlueSyphonBlue The studying beaver That beaver sure loves studying!Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    zeeny wrote: »
    Economic projections for 10+ years in the future make me cry. Honest.

    This too, of course. Someone (Sullivan?) posted a chart of projected budget vs. actual budget over the last three decades and they're horribly unreliable five years out much less seventy.

    We were supposed to have a 1 and a half trillion dollar surplus as of this year, according to the 10-year scoring of Clinton's final budget.

    SyphonBlue on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    OptimusZed wrote: »
    SyphonBlue wrote: »
    wwtMask wrote: »
    So all we have to do is completely destroy our social safety net institutions? Sounds like a winner.

    Then we mail out bootstraps to every American.

    You can't give them bootstraps, that would be socialism.
    What if we give them bootstraps, then make them pay us for them?

    Government owns the means of production (of bootstraps)? That's super socialism!
    DAMMIT

    But if we can't produce bootstraps, and we can't give them bootstraps, and they can't afford bootstraps, where does that leave us.

    The poor have to think outside the box. They need to rip out their hair, weave it into something bootstrap like, and then pull themselves up by that.

    Until they can afford real bootstraps, obviously. Then John Galt will sell them some, because he's the paragon of moral virtue.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    OptimusZedOptimusZed Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    So the options are Socialism, Divine Creation and a bunch of bald poor people.

    Awesome.

    OptimusZed on
    We're reading Rifts. You should too. You know you want to. Now With Ninjas!

    They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Sorry enc0re, but it's really hard to take a libertarian circle jerk of a budget seriously, especially when it's scored as if tax cuts don't affect the budget.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    enc0reenc0re Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Any chance we could discuss the topic in here?

    For example: obviously Medicare/aid and Social Security will need some reform to keep from killing the budget. What are the alternatives, and their desirability, to the proposed?

    enc0re on
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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    you know that little blip we had in the markets a year or so ago?

    if we'd privatized social security the entire program would be bankrupt. and the crisis would have involved tons of public money and would have been even more seriosu than it was.

    Also Ryan's proposal essentially replaces Medicare with vouchers tied to inflation rates. Anyone who buys health insurance will tell you private insurance is going up much faster than standard inflation. No mention of any type of price controls either so it pretty much trashes Medicare and tells everyone to fuck off.

    nexuscrawler on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Well, to start with we address the fundamental problem with Medicare/aid which is the fact that health care costs double every five years or so. So it would help if we passed the damn health care bill, and used that as a jumping off point to further reform the health care system to control costs.

    Social Security's "crisis" is generally overblown. I tend to favor abandoning the idea that it's each individual providing for themselves and make it explicitly a social safety net. End the exemption for social security taxes on income over whatever it is now, 93k? That by itself probably keeps it fiscally stable for another couple generations, possibly in perpetuity as growth rates stabilize and hopefully Latin America and Southeast Asia's economies start growing, lessening the immigration demand.

    Also helpful budget wise: not spending so fucking much on defense.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    Salvation122Salvation122 Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    It would fuck over sick seniors (11,000 for insurance for them! Good luck!), the poor, the young[...]
    This proposal isn't particularly good, but medicare reform is desperately needed. Personally I'm in favor of a lifetime cap. "Free healthcare for seniors forever" is simply not fiscally viable, especially with a (small) negative population growth rate.

    Salvation122 on
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    Salvation122Salvation122 Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Social Security's "crisis" is generally overblown. I tend to favor abandoning the idea that it's each individual providing for themselves and make it explicitly a social safety net.
    Hell, if we're doing that, can we means-test it, significantly reduce payroll taxes, and institute a mandatory public 401k savings program (without match)? Please? Because I guarantee you I can get a better rate of return for my money than what Social Security gives me.

    Salvation122 on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    It would fuck over sick seniors (11,000 for insurance for them! Good luck!), the poor, the young[...]
    This proposal isn't particularly good, but medicare reform is desperately needed. Personally I'm in favor of a lifetime cap. "Free healthcare for seniors forever" is simply not fiscally viable, especially with a (small) negative population growth rate.

    See, I think the problem is the general health care system being ridiculously fucking expensive instead of it just being a matter of old people are expensive to cover. Yes, they are more expensive than younger people, but the fundamental problem is general health care costs, not Medicare itself.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Social Security's "crisis" is generally overblown. I tend to favor abandoning the idea that it's each individual providing for themselves and make it explicitly a social safety net.
    Hell, if we're doing that, can we means-test it, significantly reduce payroll taxes, and institute a mandatory public 401k savings program (without match)? Please? Because I guarantee you I can get a better rate of return for my money than what Social Security gives me.

    If you can get a reasonably accurate and consistent means-testing program that reviews the means frequently enough that we won't leave seniors eating cat food through Congress sure. As for reducing payroll tax rates, I'd have to look at the math after the cap is removed.

    Of course, the bolded means that this is all circle jerking of a different sort.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    Salvation122Salvation122 Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    It would fuck over sick seniors (11,000 for insurance for them! Good luck!), the poor, the young[...]
    This proposal isn't particularly good, but medicare reform is desperately needed. Personally I'm in favor of a lifetime cap. "Free healthcare for seniors forever" is simply not fiscally viable, especially with a (small) negative population growth rate.

    See, I think the problem is the general health care system being ridiculously fucking expensive instead of it just being a matter of old people are expensive to cover. Yes, they are more expensive than younger people, but the fundamental problem is general health care costs, not Medicare itself.

    General healthcare costs are rather difficult to trim right now without massively fucking someone.

    Personally I'm in favor of streamlining our medical education system, instituting a one-time forgiveness of like 50% of med school related debt (which the banks will scream about, but fuck 'em) and implementing reasonable cost controls. But I don't think that'd ever fly.

    Salvation122 on
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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Social Security's "crisis" is generally overblown. I tend to favor abandoning the idea that it's each individual providing for themselves and make it explicitly a social safety net.
    Hell, if we're doing that, can we means-test it, significantly reduce payroll taxes, and institute a mandatory public 401k savings program (without match)? Please? Because I guarantee you I can get a better rate of return for my money than what Social Security gives me.

    A 401k system

    so when the market craps out again all the seniors are left with shit?

    i might support such an idea with much much stronger financial regulation

    nexuscrawler on
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    Salvation122Salvation122 Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Social Security's "crisis" is generally overblown. I tend to favor abandoning the idea that it's each individual providing for themselves and make it explicitly a social safety net.
    Hell, if we're doing that, can we means-test it, significantly reduce payroll taxes, and institute a mandatory public 401k savings program (without match)? Please? Because I guarantee you I can get a better rate of return for my money than what Social Security gives me.

    A 401k system

    so when the market craps out again all the seniors are left with shit?

    i might support such an idea with much much stronger financial regulation

    The market outperforms social security over any forty-year period. Seniors would only be totally fucked if they only invested in the last five years or so of their working careers, which isn't possible under a forced plan.

    Salvation122 on
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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    It would fuck over sick seniors (11,000 for insurance for them! Good luck!), the poor, the young[...]
    This proposal isn't particularly good, but medicare reform is desperately needed. Personally I'm in favor of a lifetime cap. "Free healthcare for seniors forever" is simply not fiscally viable, especially with a (small) negative population growth rate.

    See, I think the problem is the general health care system being ridiculously fucking expensive instead of it just being a matter of old people are expensive to cover. Yes, they are more expensive than younger people, but the fundamental problem is general health care costs, not Medicare itself.

    General healthcare costs are rather difficult to trim right now without massively fucking someone.

    Personally I'm in favor of streamlining our medical education system, instituting a one-time forgiveness of like 50% of med school related debt (which the banks will scream about, but fuck 'em) and implementing reasonable cost controls. But I don't think that'd ever fly.

    I can get behind some this. Thing is corruption aside Medicare runs much less overhead administratively than private insurance. We could beef up enforcement quite a bit and still be cheaper than profit driven systems. Namely because right now private insurance seems to employ 45 people to tell me to go fuck myself on every single claim.

    nexuscrawler on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    We could also just fucking adopt Medicare for all and cut out the parasitic middle man, saving tons of money and improving lives.

    /sigh

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    TlexTlex Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    enc0re wrote: »
    Any chance we could discuss the topic in here?

    For example: obviously Medicare/aid and Social Security will need some reform to keep from killing the budget. What are the alternatives, and their desirability, to the proposed?

    Just from an outsiders perspective here-why is military spending not being cut? While you may be involved in 2 conflicts, the US is spending enough for WW3.

    Tlex on
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    Salvation122Salvation122 Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    We could also just fucking adopt Medicare for all and cut out the parasitic middle man, saving tons of money and improving lives.

    /sigh

    Without real cost controls I really don't think it'd do as much as is generally believed.

    Personally I prefer the Swiss/Dutch system.

    Regardless, I'm glad that we can at least all agree that some kind of entitlement reform is needed for fiscal solvency. Other budget trimming measures would certainly help as well - I really don't understand why we're building the Gerald Ford-class carriers - but Medicare and Social Security are the storms on the horizon.

    Salvation122 on
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    deadonthestreetdeadonthestreet Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    It would fuck over sick seniors (11,000 for insurance for them! Good luck!), the poor, the young[...]
    This proposal isn't particularly good, but medicare reform is desperately needed. Personally I'm in favor of a lifetime cap. "Free healthcare for seniors forever" is simply not fiscally viable, especially with a (small) negative population growth rate.

    Only rich people deserve to live long, healthy lives? The solution of "let the poor die" is a huge step back in our already antiquated system.

    deadonthestreet on
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited February 2010
    Tlex wrote: »
    enc0re wrote: »
    Any chance we could discuss the topic in here?

    For example: obviously Medicare/aid and Social Security will need some reform to keep from killing the budget. What are the alternatives, and their desirability, to the proposed?

    Just from an outsiders perspective here-why is military spending not being cut? While you may be involved in 2 conflicts, the US is spending enough for WW3.

    A lot of factors:

    1) The Republicans would go fucking nuts and get endless air time to talk about how the Democrats are gutting the military. And DC conventional wisdom is that Democrats hate the military. Americans love the military (especially you know, soldiers) and it would be framed as an attack on that august institution.

    2) Defense contractors give a lot of money to politicians.

    3) The Pentagon likes keeping its massively corrupt bureaucracy employed, and will leak to the media that the Democrats are being mean to them, triggering a second round of 1

    4) Defense contractors cleverly spread out the production of parts for their weapons systems across many states (F-22 had parts made in 46 states, as an example) so that if a Senator votes to cut that system, s/he is almost assuredly voting to kill jobs in his own state, which s/he will then hear about in the next election.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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