Well, I really though cj was a baddie. *sigh* But, at least we got another Lannister out. So, we need to find Jaime and the SK. I've not heard from anyone yet this morning, but once I do, I'll pass on the goods.
Well, I really though cj was a baddie. *sigh* But, at least we got another Lannister out. So, we need to find Jaime and the SK. I've not heard from anyone yet this morning, but once I do, I'll pass on the goods.
When all is cloaked in shadows, rooting out evil can be difficult. However, at times a sliver of information comes through, as even a Faceless Man can slip up. Unfortunately for Jaqen H'ghar, he did just that...
Well, I really though cj was a baddie. *sigh* But, at least we got another Lannister out. So, we need to find Jaime and the SK. I've not heard from anyone yet this morning, but once I do, I'll pass on the goods.
I'll be shocked if 101 is a bad guy for the same reasons I detailed the day I entered the game. There was a 2-2-2 vote split between him, DevoutlyApathetic, and Extermatott on Day One. Then someone voted for him, making it 3-2-2. He immediately voted for Extermatott, who was a Lannister. He could have just as easily voted for DevoutlyApathetic, who was not mafia.
Considering all the Lannisters are undoubtedly masoned, that leaves two possibilities. One: That 101 went temporarily stupid and forgot that Extermatott was a fellow mafioso, or two: that he isn't mafia. The former is possible. It's happened to me. But frankly, I highly doubt it and I dont think we should waste a day throwing our votes down the toilet.
edit: Post didn't make sense - 1 and 2 were the same.
Drez on
Switch: SW-7690-2320-9238Steam/PSN/Xbox: Drezdar
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thorgotthere is special providencein the fall of a sparrowRegistered Userregular
When all is cloaked in shadows, rooting out evil can be difficult. However, at times a sliver of information comes through, as even a Faceless Man can slip up. Unfortunately for Jaqen H'ghar, he did just that...
Captainplanet82
Are you telling me CaptainPlanet82 hit mafia two out of four days? Much respect.
My guesses right now are cargo and thorgot for final Lannisters. Jaqen can you win with the village or not? Neutral neutral or evil neutral? Or neutered neutral?
So, we're getting to the end now. There are only 13 people left, we have a few confirmed roles, and we have five days worth of data we can use for deductive reasoning. It's great at we have a network with a vigilante and a seer, but let's not waste the day just throwing votes down.
Do let's see, we have:
Cargo Culture
Mr. Defecation
Matev
101
thorgot
CaptainPlanet82 - comfirmed evil, dies tonight
Drez
Turkson
SeGaTai
oldmanken - confirmed good
Spoit
Raakam
kuhlmeye - confirmed good[/QUOTE]
That leaves 10 people unconfirmed with probably, what, 2 more Lannisters?
Out of those ten, I suspect myself the least. I also do not suspect 101 purely for the reasons I have stated (though I have nothing else to go on in that regard, so I could be wrong, it just doesn't seem likely to me).
I will explain why I suspect thorgot. Thorgot is a smart guy, a crafty phalla veteran. He has avoided just about every trap mafia usually fall into. His thread activity is just above inactive, he makes seemingly helpful comments, but it doesn't seem like the the village of this phalla really expects anyone in the village to do this, so he feels safe throwing out a couple of mafia names along with some non-mafia, establishing an alibi without actually pushing for any of those people. The votes he's placed for mafia all come at moments where the bandwagon is inevitable, or in the case of stever777 who was seered evil, the vote was early and forceful - a lost cause is a lost cause, after all.
My concern is that he is carefully and expertly avoiding everything that usually makes a mafioso look suspicious to anyone that might do a little digging.
But then again, I don't know. I may damn well be wrong, and it's also in a special's best interest not to stir the pot too much, so he may just be our guardian, seer, or vigilante (assuming oldmanken is a vocal proxy). Still, I think thorgot's voting pattern is telling.
That's all I have right now. I'm going to try to do some more analysis tonight if I have time, damn these 10 hour work days.
My concern is that he is carefully and expertly avoiding everything that usually makes a mafioso look suspicious to anyone that might do a little digging.
That could describe a number of us, though. I mean, if I were a mafioso, I'd be doing exactly what I'm doing now.
That said, this is my first phalla* so take that as you will.
* Although not my first game of Mafia by any stretch.
Cargo Culture on
[SIGPIC]I did warn you not to trust me.[/SIGPIC]
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TurksonNear the mountains of ColoradoRegistered Userregular
if I were a lannistar I would convince you all I was inactive the first few days then come back and act like im a bit lost still catching up but somewhat helpful and kill you all
but im not and thus will stick to being a black bear rawrrrrrrrrr
My concern is that he is carefully and expertly avoiding everything that usually makes a mafioso look suspicious to anyone that might do a little digging.
That could describe a number of us, though. I mean, if I were a mafioso, I'd be doing exactly what I'm doing now.
That said, this is my first phalla* so take that as you will.
* Although not my first game of Mafia by any stretch.
I doubt that. I mean the end result - your behavior from the village's perspective - may amount to the same thing, or close enough to it. But the thought process that goes into being a villager and the thought process that goes into a mafioso pretending to be a villager are vastly different.
Behaviorally, generally speaking, villagers are passive. They aren't really concerned with trying to look like a villager. And for most villagers, all that death really signifies for them is the end to their enjoyment of the game. Mafioso are, or should be, concerned with how their actions are perceived. Also, they generally have a much higher allergy to death.
So its not just the behavior you analyze but also the thought process that went into that behavior. Of course, that is difficult to judge. Timing is often a big clue - when they vote and when they make comments. The more you know about a player, the better you can read them. I'm not saying I've achieved perfect empathy with thorgot (or anyone) and I may be dead wrong about all this but I know he is smart and he seems to pop in st just the right times.
In my experience, the perfect villager usually isn't a villager, because villagers frankly don't care enough about how they look to everyone else to be careful. Total non-suspiciousness is - as ridiculous as it might sound - in and of itself a bit suspicious. Every villager looks a little suspicious from time to time. The ones that coast along without doing anything worth thinking about while maintaining a non-suspicious level of activity are people to be wary of. It doesn't necessarily prove anything, but it is a concern.
My concern is that he is carefully and expertly avoiding everything that usually makes a mafioso look suspicious to anyone that might do a little digging.
That could describe a number of us, though. I mean, if I were a mafioso, I'd be doing exactly what I'm doing now.
That said, this is my first phalla* so take that as you will.
* Although not my first game of Mafia by any stretch.
I doubt that. I mean the end result - your behavior from the village's perspective - may amount to the same thing, or close enough to it. But the thought process that goes into being a villager and the thought process that goes into a mafioso pretending to be a villager are vastly different.
Behaviorally, generally speaking, villagers are passive. They aren't really concerned with trying to look like a villager. And for most villagers, all that death really signifies for them is the end to their enjoyment of the game. Mafioso are, or should be, concerned with how their actions are perceived. Also, they generally have a much higher allergy to death.
So its not just the behavior you analyze but also the thought process that went into that behavior. Of course, that is difficult to judge. Timing is often a big clue - when they vote and when they make comments. The more you know about a player, the better you can read them. I'm not saying I've achieved perfect empathy with thorgot (or anyone) and I may be dead wrong about all this but I know he is smart and he seems to pop in st just the right times.
In my experience, the perfect villager usually isn't a villager, because villagers frankly don't care enough about how they look to everyone else to be careful. Total non-suspiciousness is - as ridiculous as it might sound - in and of itself a bit suspicious. Every villager looks a little suspicious from time to time. The ones that coast along without doing anything worth thinking about while maintaining a non-suspicious level of activity are people to be wary of. It doesn't necessarily prove anything, but it is a concern.
When all is cloaked in shadows, rooting out evil can be difficult. However, at times a sliver of information comes through, as even a Faceless Man can slip up. Unfortunately for Jaqen H'ghar, he did just that...
Captainplanet82
The name is right. I am the one with the kills in black. But I didn't come forward because everyone kept calling me a serial killer.
However, I can win with the villager and I am not a usurper. Check the kills, I hit two mafia and I would be happy to point my kills in the direction you want (privately).
Ultimately if you don't vote me out, you just put me in a high spot for the mafia to kill.
Kills
Day 2 - Extermatott - usurper
Day 3 - Alt_Raven - usurper
Day 4 - Spudge - voted Ringo twice and mojo keeping wagon of cj iwakura (thought he was evil at the time). It was a gamble.
How is that not being helpful?
Day 5 - _________ - oh it's probably still going to get through. So it could be you.
By the way, other specials are not well hidden also.
When all is cloaked in shadows, rooting out evil can be difficult. However, at times a sliver of information comes through, as even a Faceless Man can slip up. Unfortunately for Jaqen H'ghar, he did just that...
Captainplanet82
The name is right. I am the one with the kills in black. But I didn't come forward because everyone kept calling me a serial killer.
However, I can win with the villager and I am not a usurper. Check the kills, I hit two mafia and I would be happy to point my kills in the direction you want (privately).
Ultimately if you don't vote me out, you just put me in a high spot for the mafia to kill.
Hitting two mafia in the midst of this game doesn't necessarily prove anything about your win condition. Most serial killers need to kill everyone, mafia and village included.
oldmanken: Does your seer's information explicitly paint Captainfalcon82 as a serial killer? I mean, does the information at your disposal indicate his win condition in any way? I am curious how you are certain. Canon-wise, I could see a Jaqen role being neutral instead of pure serial killer.
So, anyway, I have a suggestion. I'm basing this suggestion on one major assumption - namely, that Captainfalcon82 cannot win with any mafia alive, and vice versa. I think that's a relatively safe assumption to make. Anyway, hear me out for a moment:
If we keep Captainfalcon82 alive for one more day, the worst that can happen is that he betrays us and kills a known villager (I guess kuhlmeye at this point, or oldmanken, but he's apparently permaguarded). That's certainly a loss, but relative to the potential gain, it's a small loss (no offense, kuhlmeye).
The fact is, the only way Captainfalcon82 can win at this point is if: (a) he is telling the truth about him being able to win with the village and (b) if the mafia are all dead tonight.
So, why do the mafia's work for them? They can't win with him alive. They will certainly kill him, if we don't. Killing him helps them as much as it (eventually) helps us (assuming we CAN'T win with him). We already know who he is. We can just as easily kill him tomorrow. This game won't end tonight unless someone in the game has a holy hand grenade or something that can take out 10+ people in one night. I doubt that very much. Assuming the order of action resolutions is neutral/serial killer -> mafia -> village (isn't that the usual order?) then putting him to work and us focusing our vote on a possible Lannister is potentially the best course of action.
The mafia, of course, is very much in favor of the village voting out a neutral/serial killer that has been murdering them. It (a) frees up one of their daily kills and (b) ensures that the village vote doesn't hit one of them.
Basically, I don't think Captainfalcon82 has any chance, unless he teams up with us. And if he's lying about his ability to do that, he doesn't have a chance at all at this point, because the mafia knows who he is, and we know who he is, and the game won't end for us tonight no matter what the mafia and Captainfalcon82 do, either separately or in tandem. So, Captainfalcon82 either wins with us, or Captainfalcon82 dies.
It's a gamble, but it's one worth taking IMO. He may very well be lying, but if we hunt for a mafia tonight, our vote won't really be wasted. We know who Captainfalcon82 is. If the mafia let him live for some reason, and he's not doing what we ask, we can just kill him tomorrow. No matter what, we will have that ability. Let's ask Captainfalcon82 for some assistance in getting rid of Lannister scum. Let's give him a target. We have a vig, we have the vote, and we have the mafia in a real pickle here. We could potentially have Captainfalcon82 as well. That's three kills among 10 unknowns (that number includes myself). That's decent odds.
Aside from this proposal, what are YOUR suspicions on who the remaining mafia are, Captainfalcon82? You must have given this some deal of thought.
Well, I probably won't be back before the end of the day. But we have a legitimate chance here, as the village, to control this game, at least for tonight. I'm keeping my vote on thorgot. I'm not necessarily suggesting him in lieu of Captainfalcon82, but I do think it would be smarter to vote someone else out tonight instead of him and then worry about him tomorrow if the game is still running and he's still alive.
Heck. Just out of spite. If everyone just votes me out, maybe the lonely usurpers would prefer some help. If I'm going down, it will be as a complete wildcard. If I'm getting accused of being SK, I might as well act the part.
Drez, you have a lot to say for someone joining the game so late.
Heck. Just out of spite. If everyone just votes me out, maybe the lonely usurpers would prefer some help. If I'm going down, it will be as a complete wildcard. If I'm getting accused of being SK, I might as well act the part.
Drez, you have a lot to say for someone joining the game so late.
Falcon, planet, what's the difference?
Anyway, that's kind of an interesting response to what I said, especially since I was arguing to keep you alive. And I'm inclined to take it as confirmation that you aren't neutral, but are rather a SK. Spite? Please.
Everything I said is correct - if your win condition allows you to win with the village, your only hope is to ally with us and help us win, tonight, or at least as quickly as possible. Any other action would be lunacy. You basically have no control over your own fate at this point.
I understand that it's frustrating to be seered and publicly outed and told that you have no hope of victory, but that's just the reality of your predicament. You have zero clout to threaten us with.
And I'm missing the connection between coming in late and having a lot to say. It doesn't make anything I'm saying any less logical or correct.
edit: I'm not sure why the host just posted that clarification, but it doesn't matter. You can't "spite" us because you don't have any privileged information. Spite would just take the form of doing what you usually do, which is targeting people based on educated guesses. *shrug*
Although I guess it would be interesting if you got sniped and the vote trickled down to someone it shouldn't trickle down to.
Posts
No, Arya died on Day 3.
No, Arya lives as of today.
What, like confirmed good guy syndrome?
101 seems like a good enough pick as any.
Captainplanet82
She was poisoned and thus incapacitated yesterday, but she managed to shrug it off and reawaken last night.
Considering all the Lannisters are undoubtedly masoned, that leaves two possibilities. One: That 101 went temporarily stupid and forgot that Extermatott was a fellow mafioso, or two: that he isn't mafia. The former is possible. It's happened to me. But frankly, I highly doubt it and I dont think we should waste a day throwing our votes down the toilet.
edit: Post didn't make sense - 1 and 2 were the same.
Are you telling me CaptainPlanet82 hit mafia two out of four days? Much respect.
But you still have to die, !Captainplanet82.
Steam
Voting for a known villager is something.
Though if he keeps targeting mafia it might be in our interests to let him live
Thinking about it, you were quite quick to jump on a vote for me Cargo.
Do we have a spreadsheet of votes somewhere?
Steam
Do let's see, we have:
Cargo Culture
Mr. Defecation
Matev
101
thorgot
CaptainPlanet82 - comfirmed evil, dies tonight
Drez
Turkson
SeGaTai
oldmanken - confirmed good
Spoit
Raakam
kuhlmeye - confirmed good[/QUOTE]
That leaves 10 people unconfirmed with probably, what, 2 more Lannisters?
Out of those ten, I suspect myself the least. I also do not suspect 101 purely for the reasons I have stated (though I have nothing else to go on in that regard, so I could be wrong, it just doesn't seem likely to me).
I will explain why I suspect thorgot. Thorgot is a smart guy, a crafty phalla veteran. He has avoided just about every trap mafia usually fall into. His thread activity is just above inactive, he makes seemingly helpful comments, but it doesn't seem like the the village of this phalla really expects anyone in the village to do this, so he feels safe throwing out a couple of mafia names along with some non-mafia, establishing an alibi without actually pushing for any of those people. The votes he's placed for mafia all come at moments where the bandwagon is inevitable, or in the case of stever777 who was seered evil, the vote was early and forceful - a lost cause is a lost cause, after all.
My concern is that he is carefully and expertly avoiding everything that usually makes a mafioso look suspicious to anyone that might do a little digging.
But then again, I don't know. I may damn well be wrong, and it's also in a special's best interest not to stir the pot too much, so he may just be our guardian, seer, or vigilante (assuming oldmanken is a vocal proxy). Still, I think thorgot's voting pattern is telling.
That's all I have right now. I'm going to try to do some more analysis tonight if I have time, damn these 10 hour work days.
That could describe a number of us, though. I mean, if I were a mafioso, I'd be doing exactly what I'm doing now.
That said, this is my first phalla* so take that as you will.
* Although not my first game of Mafia by any stretch.
This quote by SeGaTai right after Steve777 tried to mask himself as Theon Greyjoy keeps striking me as odd. Curiouser and curiouser.
But I trust Oldmanken. !CaptainPlanet.
but im not and thus will stick to being a black bear rawrrrrrrrrr
Steam
I don't trust anyone except myself, and I'm even unsure about that.
SeGaTai also jumped on Kuhlmeye quickly. Could be they didn't understand what happened, with other odd behavior....
I doubt that. I mean the end result - your behavior from the village's perspective - may amount to the same thing, or close enough to it. But the thought process that goes into being a villager and the thought process that goes into a mafioso pretending to be a villager are vastly different.
Behaviorally, generally speaking, villagers are passive. They aren't really concerned with trying to look like a villager. And for most villagers, all that death really signifies for them is the end to their enjoyment of the game. Mafioso are, or should be, concerned with how their actions are perceived. Also, they generally have a much higher allergy to death.
So its not just the behavior you analyze but also the thought process that went into that behavior. Of course, that is difficult to judge. Timing is often a big clue - when they vote and when they make comments. The more you know about a player, the better you can read them. I'm not saying I've achieved perfect empathy with thorgot (or anyone) and I may be dead wrong about all this but I know he is smart and he seems to pop in st just the right times.
In my experience, the perfect villager usually isn't a villager, because villagers frankly don't care enough about how they look to everyone else to be careful. Total non-suspiciousness is - as ridiculous as it might sound - in and of itself a bit suspicious. Every villager looks a little suspicious from time to time. The ones that coast along without doing anything worth thinking about while maintaining a non-suspicious level of activity are people to be wary of. It doesn't necessarily prove anything, but it is a concern.
Thorgot - if I end up being wrong, I am sorry.
Thorgot: drez (350)
kuhl: segatai (363)
101: kuhl (366 retracted 373) cargo culture (367)
cap planet: oldmanken (368) thorgot (371) mr d (372) kuhl (373) 101 (375) matev (381) turkson (384) Spoit (whatever post number this is)
The name is right. I am the one with the kills in black. But I didn't come forward because everyone kept calling me a serial killer.
However, I can win with the villager and I am not a usurper. Check the kills, I hit two mafia and I would be happy to point my kills in the direction you want (privately).
Ultimately if you don't vote me out, you just put me in a high spot for the mafia to kill.
Day 2 - Extermatott - usurper
Day 3 - Alt_Raven - usurper
Day 4 - Spudge - voted Ringo twice and mojo keeping wagon of cj iwakura (thought he was evil at the time). It was a gamble.
How is that not being helpful?
Day 5 - _________ - oh it's probably still going to get through. So it could be you.
By the way, other specials are not well hidden also.
Hitting two mafia in the midst of this game doesn't necessarily prove anything about your win condition. Most serial killers need to kill everyone, mafia and village included.
oldmanken: Does your seer's information explicitly paint Captainfalcon82 as a serial killer? I mean, does the information at your disposal indicate his win condition in any way? I am curious how you are certain. Canon-wise, I could see a Jaqen role being neutral instead of pure serial killer.
So, anyway, I have a suggestion. I'm basing this suggestion on one major assumption - namely, that Captainfalcon82 cannot win with any mafia alive, and vice versa. I think that's a relatively safe assumption to make. Anyway, hear me out for a moment:
If we keep Captainfalcon82 alive for one more day, the worst that can happen is that he betrays us and kills a known villager (I guess kuhlmeye at this point, or oldmanken, but he's apparently permaguarded). That's certainly a loss, but relative to the potential gain, it's a small loss (no offense, kuhlmeye).
The fact is, the only way Captainfalcon82 can win at this point is if: (a) he is telling the truth about him being able to win with the village and (b) if the mafia are all dead tonight.
So, why do the mafia's work for them? They can't win with him alive. They will certainly kill him, if we don't. Killing him helps them as much as it (eventually) helps us (assuming we CAN'T win with him). We already know who he is. We can just as easily kill him tomorrow. This game won't end tonight unless someone in the game has a holy hand grenade or something that can take out 10+ people in one night. I doubt that very much. Assuming the order of action resolutions is neutral/serial killer -> mafia -> village (isn't that the usual order?) then putting him to work and us focusing our vote on a possible Lannister is potentially the best course of action.
The mafia, of course, is very much in favor of the village voting out a neutral/serial killer that has been murdering them. It (a) frees up one of their daily kills and (b) ensures that the village vote doesn't hit one of them.
Basically, I don't think Captainfalcon82 has any chance, unless he teams up with us. And if he's lying about his ability to do that, he doesn't have a chance at all at this point, because the mafia knows who he is, and we know who he is, and the game won't end for us tonight no matter what the mafia and Captainfalcon82 do, either separately or in tandem. So, Captainfalcon82 either wins with us, or Captainfalcon82 dies.
It's a gamble, but it's one worth taking IMO. He may very well be lying, but if we hunt for a mafia tonight, our vote won't really be wasted. We know who Captainfalcon82 is. If the mafia let him live for some reason, and he's not doing what we ask, we can just kill him tomorrow. No matter what, we will have that ability. Let's ask Captainfalcon82 for some assistance in getting rid of Lannister scum. Let's give him a target. We have a vig, we have the vote, and we have the mafia in a real pickle here. We could potentially have Captainfalcon82 as well. That's three kills among 10 unknowns (that number includes myself). That's decent odds.
Aside from this proposal, what are YOUR suspicions on who the remaining mafia are, Captainfalcon82? You must have given this some deal of thought.
*shrug*
Steam
http://i52.tinypic.com/10y2wlk.gif (warning 1MB gif)
Heck. Just out of spite. If everyone just votes me out, maybe the lonely usurpers would prefer some help. If I'm going down, it will be as a complete wildcard. If I'm getting accused of being SK, I might as well act the part.
Drez, you have a lot to say for someone joining the game so late.
Thank you, but I consider myself a bit more attractive than Sansa Stark. My tits are bigger, at least.
Falcon, planet, what's the difference?
Anyway, that's kind of an interesting response to what I said, especially since I was arguing to keep you alive. And I'm inclined to take it as confirmation that you aren't neutral, but are rather a SK. Spite? Please.
Everything I said is correct - if your win condition allows you to win with the village, your only hope is to ally with us and help us win, tonight, or at least as quickly as possible. Any other action would be lunacy. You basically have no control over your own fate at this point.
I understand that it's frustrating to be seered and publicly outed and told that you have no hope of victory, but that's just the reality of your predicament. You have zero clout to threaten us with.
And I'm missing the connection between coming in late and having a lot to say. It doesn't make anything I'm saying any less logical or correct.
edit: I'm not sure why the host just posted that clarification, but it doesn't matter. You can't "spite" us because you don't have any privileged information. Spite would just take the form of doing what you usually do, which is targeting people based on educated guesses. *shrug*
Although I guess it would be interesting if you got sniped and the vote trickled down to someone it shouldn't trickle down to.