Well, that's some bullshit. Someday we will teach officials that no decision is a fucking decision and is deciding the game even more than enforcing the fucking rules.
I hate the Ducks.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Well, that's some bullshit. Someday we will teach officials that no decision is a fucking decision and is deciding the game even more than enforcing the fucking rules.
While I'm at it, general officiating/discipline reforms I'd like to see:
1) All slew foots are major penalties.
2) Restore the rulebook definition of charging:
A minor plus a misconduct or a major plus a game misconduct penalty shall be assessed to any player who runs or jumps into an opponent or who takes more than two fast strides in delivering a body check (charging).
3) Scrums never result in coincidental minors ever again. Teams possibly get one warning, but after that it's a power play for somebody, every time.
4) Any major penalty that results in an injury is reviewed by the league. If the penalty is ruled to have been correctly applied, the offending player is automatically suspended for the duration of the injury, subject to review by league doctors so the victim's team can't game the system. Any supplementary discipline would be in addition to this suspension. So Subban would be gone until Stone returns, for example.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Eh, I am not a fan of suspending for the length of the injury. Injury severity can depend on a lot of factors beyond the control of the players on the ice
So much for that 'hard working' bad at possession, with crazy high PDO team making a run in the playoffs.
Who would've guessed. #fancystats
I mean, I support the attempt to find better analytics and measurements of the game, but Montreal has higher PDO then Ottawa, lower SAT%, lower Corsi, and lower Fenwick. So by every in vogue analytic metric this series should be going the other direction.
Also two of the top 4 teams in possession (SAT%) didn't even make the playoffs. #fancystats
Trying to quantify the game is great, but our metrics are just not very good right now it seems. Everyone wants to find the magic bullet and be the guy who brings moneyball to hockey, but turns out a game that isn't explicitly broken down into discrete plays with a designated offense and defense at every point has a lot more complex interactions between stats. PDO especially seems like a really gross oversimplification with tons of inherent assumptions that may or may not be true.
Yeah, I don't know why I forgot that montreal isn't good again this year. I just thought the sens were worse. But I also get the sens and flames confused all the time. Red and black canadian teams. I dunno.
But Carey Price probably actually is an elite goalie that can drive PDO whereas hammond is a career AHL .890sv% or something.
Trying to quantify the game is great, but our metrics are just not very good right now it seems. PDO especially seems like a really gross oversimplification with tons of inherent assumptions that may or may not be true.
PDO is great for team stats. It falls apart a little bit in regards to certain players that actually do drive shooting percentage. But team stats always regress to the mean. And, usage adjusted fenwick over the past 20 games predicts future winners something like 63.8% of the time, iirc.
I don't know if I buy the assumption that for every team, and every style of play, a scoring chance must come at the expense of a defensive liability. There's teams with Ovechkins who have "disconnected controller" moments, and then there's teams that try to instill discipline and a team responsibility for back checking and team defense. I'm also not comfortable entirely writing off goalie skill and a large part of your defensemen as luck. I could be wrong, or I could just be turned off on the stat by people calling it an effort to "quantify luck" in sports, where we shouldn't really need to quantify luck when we have a sample size of 30 teams playing 82 games, and "luck" should average out over whatever other metrics we feel drive teams to win. Over a large enough sample size, cliche or not, its absolutely true that you make your own luck.
an effort to "quantify luck" in sports, where we shouldn't really need to quantify luck when we have a sample size of 30 teams playing 82 games, and "luck" should average out
That's why PDO regressed to the mean of 100. On a small scale, hockey is a luck based game. Over a longer scale, things even out. Shooting percentage is a bigger driver of PDO than save percentage, but both regress. Very few players can maintain a higher than league average shooting percent (Ovie, Stamkos, Crosby, Kovalchuk, etc.). Very few goalies can maintain a season of better than league average save percent (Price, Rask, Lundqvist, Bobrovsky) No teams have more than one of those guys. Even if they did, having Ovie and Stamkos on your team, would still probably only increase your team PDO by half a percent at most. There are 20 other guys shooting league average, after all.
Which is why shot volumn, a thing you can control by being a better team, is more important in the long run than PDO. A high PDO will win you games. A hot goalie will win you playoffs. Hi Tim Thomas and your .937 (and iirc, .960 in the finals?) in the playoffs!
But a better team, one that shoots more, that controls more, that doesn't allow the other team to shoot, by controlling the puck more, will, in the long run, be a better team. Even if they don't win the cup every year. Cause hockey is a game of luck and skill.
I think there's a hidden assumption there which is that regular season NHL hockey and playoff hockey are actually the same. Which I don't think they are, mostly for reasons of officiating. One of the traditional advantages of puck possession is that you draw more penalties which means more goals. In the playoffs, they let a lot more interference go for whatever fucking reason.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
I would argue that that is more of an artifact of only being a maximum of 28 games in the playoffs.
I mean, the penguins PP was hitting at, like, 38% after that many games this season. And then, if you only count from from november until the end of the year, we were 29th in the league in PP%
Again, we were shooting less, which the the thing you can control for. Also, most possession stats take even strength into account, which removes some of that 'refs put the whistles away' effect. But PDO doesn't. Because, across the entire league in every situation, it has to equal 100.
Burtletoy on
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I think there's a hidden assumption there which is that regular season NHL hockey and playoff hockey are actually the same. Which I don't think they are, mostly for reasons of officiating. One of the traditional advantages of puck possession is that you draw more penalties which means more goals. In the playoffs, they let a lot more interference go for whatever fucking reason.
You also have to figure there's a difference when you play the same team four-to-seven games in a row rather than four or five times out of 82 games.
I think there's a hidden assumption there which is that regular season NHL hockey and playoff hockey are actually the same. Which I don't think they are, mostly for reasons of officiating. One of the traditional advantages of puck possession is that you draw more penalties which means more goals. In the playoffs, they let a lot more interference go for whatever fucking reason.
You also have to figure there's a difference when you play the same team four-to-seven games in a row rather than four or five times out of 82 games.
There's something to that too I think yeah. Really physical teams tend to better in the playoffs than they do in the regular season... I think. I don't have numbers to back that up besides pointing a bunch of anecdotes surrounding champions.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Flames organist playing some legend of zelda tunes.
I always said Flames are the best.
Being a Calgary Flames fan is fucking awesome, and I miss not being in Calgary this time of year. It's such a great atmosphere.
It is apparently 108 dB in the stadium right now.
(so I guess it's not surprising that when the Flames goalie does a backflip after being shot at the refs are so disoriented they just call a penalty against Vancouver)
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Yeeeeaaaaaah, dude's so excited....
Too bad Rangers power play is butt poop.
That would've been like 8 interference penalties if the pens did it to nash
Text book definition of a delay of game.
twitch.tv/tehsloth
The games in Winnipeg are gonna be fun.
I hate the Ducks.
Oh, it wasn't just me then
I have 549 Rock Band Drum and 305 Pro Drum FC's
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I have 549 Rock Band Drum and 305 Pro Drum FC's
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bitter much?
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but cheering for the caps hurts me
Obviously there's no chance because there was no injury but that is a stupid fucking standard.
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1) All slew foots are major penalties.
2) Restore the rulebook definition of charging:
3) Scrums never result in coincidental minors ever again. Teams possibly get one warning, but after that it's a power play for somebody, every time.
4) Any major penalty that results in an injury is reviewed by the league. If the penalty is ruled to have been correctly applied, the offending player is automatically suspended for the duration of the injury, subject to review by league doctors so the victim's team can't game the system. Any supplementary discipline would be in addition to this suspension. So Subban would be gone until Stone returns, for example.
I have 549 Rock Band Drum and 305 Pro Drum FC's
REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS
I have 549 Rock Band Drum and 305 Pro Drum FC's
REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS
So much for that 'hard working' bad at possession, with crazy high PDO team making a run in the playoffs.
Who would've guessed. #fancystats
CBC stream for the Calgary Vancouver game.
Nice!
I have 549 Rock Band Drum and 305 Pro Drum FC's
REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS
I mean, I support the attempt to find better analytics and measurements of the game, but Montreal has higher PDO then Ottawa, lower SAT%, lower Corsi, and lower Fenwick. So by every in vogue analytic metric this series should be going the other direction.
Also two of the top 4 teams in possession (SAT%) didn't even make the playoffs. #fancystats
Trying to quantify the game is great, but our metrics are just not very good right now it seems. Everyone wants to find the magic bullet and be the guy who brings moneyball to hockey, but turns out a game that isn't explicitly broken down into discrete plays with a designated offense and defense at every point has a lot more complex interactions between stats. PDO especially seems like a really gross oversimplification with tons of inherent assumptions that may or may not be true.
But Carey Price probably actually is an elite goalie that can drive PDO whereas hammond is a career AHL .890sv% or something.
PDO is great for team stats. It falls apart a little bit in regards to certain players that actually do drive shooting percentage. But team stats always regress to the mean. And, usage adjusted fenwick over the past 20 games predicts future winners something like 63.8% of the time, iirc.
That's why PDO regressed to the mean of 100. On a small scale, hockey is a luck based game. Over a longer scale, things even out. Shooting percentage is a bigger driver of PDO than save percentage, but both regress. Very few players can maintain a higher than league average shooting percent (Ovie, Stamkos, Crosby, Kovalchuk, etc.). Very few goalies can maintain a season of better than league average save percent (Price, Rask, Lundqvist, Bobrovsky) No teams have more than one of those guys. Even if they did, having Ovie and Stamkos on your team, would still probably only increase your team PDO by half a percent at most. There are 20 other guys shooting league average, after all.
Which is why shot volumn, a thing you can control by being a better team, is more important in the long run than PDO. A high PDO will win you games. A hot goalie will win you playoffs. Hi Tim Thomas and your .937 (and iirc, .960 in the finals?) in the playoffs!
But a better team, one that shoots more, that controls more, that doesn't allow the other team to shoot, by controlling the puck more, will, in the long run, be a better team. Even if they don't win the cup every year. Cause hockey is a game of luck and skill.
I mean, the penguins PP was hitting at, like, 38% after that many games this season. And then, if you only count from from november until the end of the year, we were 29th in the league in PP%
Again, we were shooting less, which the the thing you can control for. Also, most possession stats take even strength into account, which removes some of that 'refs put the whistles away' effect. But PDO doesn't. Because, across the entire league in every situation, it has to equal 100.
You also have to figure there's a difference when you play the same team four-to-seven games in a row rather than four or five times out of 82 games.
There's something to that too I think yeah. Really physical teams tend to better in the playoffs than they do in the regular season... I think. I don't have numbers to back that up besides pointing a bunch of anecdotes surrounding champions.
I always said Flames are the best.
Being a Calgary Flames fan is fucking awesome, and I miss not being in Calgary this time of year. It's such a great atmosphere.
It is apparently 108 dB in the stadium right now.
(so I guess it's not surprising that when the Flames goalie does a backflip after being shot at the refs are so disoriented they just call a penalty against Vancouver)